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| | My Election Analysis: Whither The Undecideds (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31) |
 | | In 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1948, there was a strong surge for incumbents from July and August polling to the final results. |
 | | Thus, from the data, incumbents won over the "summer undecideds" in 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1956, 1976, It was a mixed bag in 1972, while the challenger picked up the undecideds in 1964 (barely), 1980, and 1996 (barely). |
 | | In the interest of full disclosure, I worked there for an economist, was having a lunchtime discussion with one of the "elections" people there (they have a great lunchroom there which facilitates interaction between the scholars and the staff), and she helped pull together the presentation. |
| myelectionanalysis.blogspot.com /2004/09/whither-undecideds.html (4106 words) |
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