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Topic: 1948 presidential election


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  US Election 1948: The First Great Controversy about Polls, Media, and Social Science
The 1948 failure of the U.S. pre-election polls was an occasion for social scientists to stake explicit claims on the opinion research published in mass media.
We may summarize the evaluation of the polling experience in the 1948 presidential election by separating George H. Gallup’s scientific application of survey sampling and interviewing from his social invention of polling of the public, on the issues defined by the public, for the benefit of the public.
The simplest lesson from 1948 for the pollsters and their publishers was to cover the last weeks and days before the election with continuous polling.
zetterberg.org /Lectures/l041115.htm   (8715 words)

  
 United States presidential election, 1948 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The U.S. presidential election of 1948 is considered by most historians as the greatest election upset in American history.
The 1948 election marked the second time in American presidential election history that the winning candidate won despite losing Pennyslvania and New York (the first time being the 1916 election - later such elections included 1968, 2000, and 2004).
Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 1948 (PDF).
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1948   (1762 words)

  
 Election of 1948
Republican prospects for the 1948 presidential race appeared to be excellent.
Both the liberal and the conservative wings of the party were disaffected, and some members of the former tried unsuccessfully to engineer a presidential candidacy by Dwight D. Eisenhower, one of the great heroes of the recent war.
The campaign of 1948 was a study in contrasts.
www.u-s-history.com /pages/h898.html   (848 words)

  
 GE60: American National Election Study, 1968--Description Page   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
It is the tenth in a series of studies of national elections beginning with the 1948 presidential election.
The pre-election survey also obtained personal data such as the respondent's family composition, education and union membership of the respondent and the head of the household, information on the main and the secondary occupation of both the head and the respondent, the respondent's religious preference, class identification, ethnic background and identification, income, sex, and race.
As in the 1964 election study, the respondents in this study are divided into two samples-a cross-section sample, consisting of 1557 respondents, and a fl supplement sample of 116 respondents.
www.college.ucla.edu /webproject/ge60/ANES68DescriptionR.html   (1473 words)

  
 Worldwide Elections Guide: Services & Information: SSHL   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
Election Statistics: The Clerk of the U.S. House Representatives lists elections results from 1920 to most recent, the official vote counts for presidential electors, U.S. senators, and U.S. Representatives.
Presidential Elections and Electoral College: created by the Library of Congress, presents the pages from records of Congressional debates and Congressional action on presidential elections, contested information and electoral votes from 1789 to 1873.
Presidential Elections and the Electoral College (The Proceedings of the Electoral Commission of 1877): This Library of Congress project presents the pages from records of Congressional debates on presidential elections, contested presidential elections, electoral colleges from 1789 to 1873.
sshl.ucsd.edu /election/pres.html   (1280 words)

  
 Amazon.com: The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election: Books: Zachary Karabell   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
That is why 1948 was, in his words, the "last campaign": it was the last time that "an entire spectrum of ideologies was represented in the presidential election." This is a difficult hypothesis to accept for anyone who remembers the Humphrey-Nixon-Wallace contest of 1968, or even Clinton-Bush-Perot in 1992.
Because 1948 was the last presidential election not to have significant television coverage, candidates could focus more on the issues at hand without be as concerned with image and polite pronouncements.
The difference between 1948 and 2000 is that whereas the two third parties in 1948 couldn't keep Truman from winning the election - they simply cut into his victory margin - in 2000 the two third parties DID prevent Gore from beating Bush (by taking votes away from Gore in Florida and elsewhere).
www.amazon.com /Last-Campaign-Harry-Truman-Election/dp/0375400869   (3368 words)

  
 WVU Libraries: Guide to Presidential Election Sources
Includes election results, 2000 Presidential primary election results by state, voter registration and turnout statistics, historical demographic statistics, questions and answers about state voting procedures, absentee voting (including state-by-state cutoff dates, notarization and witnessing, when absentee ballots are counted and by whom), registering to vote, and more
Also, there are state results pages for the elections from 1896 through 2000 with county level maps and data for the elections from 1960 through 2000.
Elections: Statistical Analysis of Factors That Affected Uncounted Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election
www.libraries.wvu.edu /elections   (961 words)

  
 ANES > Data Center > Study Pages > 1948prepost   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
However, in order to measure political interest and general political orientation, respondents were asked if they were going to vote in the 1948 presidential election and for what party they planned to vote.
The second survey was undertaken in November after the presidential election had been held.
The study was designed to examine the characteristics of Republican and Democratic voters, the importance of various national and international issues and the effects of the presidential campaigns on voting behavior.
www.umich.edu /~nes/studypages/1948prepost/1948prepost.htm   (196 words)

  
 Election, Assessing opinion polls, public opinion surveys
They are used throughout the course of election campaigns by candidates and by the media to see which candidates are ahead and who is likely to emerge victorious.
In the 1948 Presidential election, for example, the polls predicted certain victory for Republican Thomas E. Dewey.
Everything else being equal, an election poll of 100,000 out of two million voters is more likely to produce accurate results than a poll of 1,000 out of the same number.
www.crf-usa.org /~crf/election_central/opinion_poll.htm   (1214 words)

  
 The First Measured Century: Timeline: Events - 1948 Election
(Gallup had won a dramatic bet by correctly predicting the outcome of the 1936 election.) Newspapers were so sure the pollsters were right that they printed the headline, "Dewey Beats Truman." But they were wrong.
But in 1948 there were two strong independent candidates whose support eroded away in the last week.
By stopping their polling too soon, the pollsters missed this shift away from the third party candidates back to the major parties.
www.pbs.org /fmc/timeline/e1948election.htm   (160 words)

  
 Presidential Campaign of 1948
Facing such controversial issues as the desegregation of the armed forces, dropping of the atomic bomb, the cold war, the fair deal, the Republican takeover of Congress, and the 1948 presidential campaign, political and editorial cartoons were commonplace.
The 1948 presidential campaign of Harry Truman has been dubbed one of the greatest political campaigns of the modern era.
Beginning with his 1948 State of the Union address, Truman quickly found that his ten month campaign would be long and hard.
www.trumanlibrary.org /teacher/campaign.htm   (1656 words)

  
 3PT - Election '48   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
The election of 1948 proved to be among the most divisive in recent history.
Thurmond's defection and its effect on the Southern vote was unanticipated in Rowe's memo, as Clark Clifford describes.
Thurmond came close to throwing the election into the House by carrying four sourthern states -- Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina -- and reaping 39 electoral votes.
www.ksg.harvard.edu /case/3pt/camp48.html   (132 words)

  
 Geostat Center: Collection: US and Virginia Election Data & Maps
This collection of data is built upon precinct level data tapes obtained from the Virginia Board of Elections.
Elections included are President, Senator, Representative, Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and General Assembly (Senate and House).
Because this project is based on a study from the ICPSR, use is restricted to members of the ICPSR Virginia Federation.
fisher.lib.virginia.edu /collections/stats/elections   (184 words)

  
 3PT - The Rowe Memo   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
The aim of this memorandum is to suggest a course of political conduct for the Administration to follow from September 1947 to the November 1948 elections.
By November 1948 it may again be in that irritable and irrational mood it found itself in during the Congressional Election of 1946--and vote the "ins" out and the "outs" in.
But the major issue of the 1948 election, we predicted, would be the high cost of living, heightened by the continuing housing shortage.
www.ksg.harvard.edu /case/3pt/rowe.html   (5560 words)

  
 Election of 1948
When the Democrats met at Philadelphia they were concerned about the ability of Truman to win the election.
Despite the concerns, President Truman was nominated on the first ballot.
The night of the election newspapers gave the victory to Dewey.
www.multied.com /elections/1948.html   (204 words)

  
 [No title]   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
As the Michigan SRC researchers completed their early election studies, they needed to find a way to make their valuable data available to other researchers (as required by the funding agencies that provided financial support for the surveys, and as they wanted to do in any event).
Data from six presidential elections, 1972 through 1992, were drawn from the ANES Cumulative Data File and modified for classroom use to create a data set that allows students to analyze voting in presidential elections over a two decade period.
V04 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE “Whom did you vote for in the Presidential election?” (Responses are categorized by the party of the candidate that the respondent voted for.)
userpages.umbc.edu /~nmiller/POLI300/SETUPS.htm   (1731 words)

  
 TheHistoryNet | American History | American History: Harry Truman and the 1948 U.S. Presidential Election
It was not a job he had ever aspired to, and he confided to his diary and in letters to his family his doubts about his abilities.
By 1948, however, Harry Truman had grown with the job and was determined to seek a full term in his own right.
He also sought vindication for the rebuff his party had suffered at the polls in the 1946 congressional elections, when the Republicans gained an overwhelming majority in both the House and the Senate.
www.historynet.com /ah/bl-1948-presidential-election   (1006 words)

  
 "When All The Experts Got It Wrong:
President Truman's reelection in 1948 was so startling to many because it seemed to run against the tide of an increasingly conservative political trend in the United States.
As the approaching 1948 presidential election lay just over the horizon, ideological tensions rent the Democratic Party into three factions, each of which could play a pivotal part in determining the outcome of the upcoming contest.
While Truman was intent on winning the upcoming election, the moderate left would settle for nothing less than unequivocally committing the party to the causes of racial equality and justice.
www2.austincc.edu /lpatrick/his1302/WhenAllTheExperts1.html   (6303 words)

  
 Arthur Herman on 1948 & Henry Wallace on National Review Online
In fact, when Hubert Humphrey complained about the prominent role Communists were playing in the election, Wallace blithely told him to go talk to the Russian embassy — it had more influence over his campaign officials than he did.
Humphrey remains a hero to liberals for his tough speech on civil rights in the 1948 Democratic-party convention — the same speech, ironically, that caused southern Democrats to walk out and launch Strom Thurmond as their separate presidential candidate.
He said, "I'm glad that I stood with Wallace in 1948" and then added: "Twenty four years later I won the Democratic presidential nomination on a similar platform" in 1972 — namely abandoning Vietnam, "bringing the Cold War and the arms race under control," and diminishing America's role in the world.
www.nationalreview.com /comment/comment-herman121802.asp   (1050 words)

  
 A WHOLE LOTT O' NOTHIN' ... once more the PC Crowd confuses Action with Accomplishment
The State's Rights Democratic Party- aka the "Dixiecrats"- of 1948 was not so much a Party as an Idea, albeit a dying (however slow the deserved death) one- as American History over the next generation or so would so well demonstrate.
Thurmond was probably among the less objectionable potential Presidential candidates available to the "Dixiecrats" that Summer.
Thurmond, already- thanks to his "Dixiecrat" campaign- a "lightning rod" for the slings and arrows of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, remained an unabashed and unapologetic conservative throughout his more than four and a half decades of service in the Senate.
www.thegreenpapers.com /PCom/?20021212-0   (687 words)

  
 The Real Third-Party Candidate in 1948
The segregationist apostates didn't expect Thurmond to win the election (he carried only four Southern states); they meant to divert enough Electoral College votes from Truman to throw his contest with Republican Thomas Dewey into the House of Representatives.
If anything, he was the fourth-party candidate in the 1948 popular vote, coming in behind another candidate who, like him, had bolted the Democrats to run on an insurgent ticket.
Like Ralph Nader's voters in 2000, the leftist insurgent's supporters in 1948 cost Democrats several states: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York went narrowly to Dewey, whose civil-rights posture was at best platitudinous and ephemeral and whose antipathy to labor was legendary.
hnn.us /articles/1173.html   (1056 words)

  
 Weird 1948 vote totals
I was looking at the results of the 1948 Presidential Election and a few irregularities caught my attention:
For Thurmond, I would guess that it was the election laws, which may have made it easy or not to get his name on the ballot; or whether one had to vote for electors or a slate of electors directly; whether there was straight ticket voting; etc. In Alabama, Thurmond was the Democrat candidate.
The 1948 election has been called "FDR's last victory," since it is theorized that many voters who originally planned to vote for Dewey could not bring themselves at the last minute to reject the nominee of the party that had brought prosperity back to the country.
uselectionatlas.org /FORUM/index.php?topic=47076.msg1019953   (522 words)

  
 Geostat Center: US Presidential Election Maps: 1860-1996
The data utilized in the construction of these maps were made available by the Inter-university Consortium for Political Social Research (ICPSR Study # 7757).
The Data for the Candidate and Constituency Statistics of Elections in the United States were originally collected by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
A map of the 2000 presidential election, based on different data, is available at 2000 Presidential Election Resources.
fisher.lib.virginia.edu /collections/stats/elections/maps/index.html   (102 words)

  
 TIME.com: KEY STATE--IOWA -- Oct. 6, 1952 -- Page 1
One of the biggest surprises of the 1948 presidential election came from Republican Iowa, the center of the farm belt.
After swinging to Truman and electing Democrat Guy Gillette to the U.S. Senate in 1948, Iowa in 1950 gave Republicans 59.3% of the vote for governor, 55.1% for U.S. Senator, and 61.2% for Congress.
While Iowa's prosperity will help the Democratic cause with the purse-minded farmers, its effect is at least partially offset by some blunt economic facts: the farmers' taxes and living costs have been going up, while the trend of prices for their farm products has been down.
www.time.com /time/magazine/article/0,9171,890308,00.html   (743 words)

  
 Roper Fortune-Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
Voting intention (1); interest in election (1); presidential election (8); veteran (1).
Future times better/worse (1); presidential election (13); Congress (1); government priority: international vs. domestic (1); government priorities (8); prices (1); foreign relations (1); Secretary of the State (1); US-Russia relations (1); veteran (1).
Voting intentions (1); 1948 presidential election (18); 1944 presidential election (1); Republican vs. Democratic candidates (4); veterans (1).
www.ropercenter.uconn.edu /rfor1948.html   (362 words)

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