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| | TIMING: AMERICAN CALL OPTIONS PROGRAM WITH FOCUS ON REAL OPTIONS (Site not responding. Last check: ) |
 | | This Excel application performs the real options analysis for an opportunity to invest in a project, which is view as a finite lived American call (real) option, with time to expiration T established by legal terms (as in petroleum upstream) or by an estimative of expected time for competition entry (Kester, 1984). |
 | | Third, it calculates the probability of option exercise and, conditional to the the option exercise, the conditional expected time of option exercise, that is, the expected first hitting time for the simulated sample paths to reach the threshold curve conditional to option exercise occurrence. |
 | | Without operational options, and for the regime of concessions in the petroleum case, the value of the project is a linear function between V and P, but not proportional as in the previous case. |
| www.puc-rio.br /marco.ind/timing.html (2358 words) |
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