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| | Presidential Vote Equation--April 29, 2004 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21) |
 | | The current predictions from the US model (April 29, 2004) are 3.2 percent, 2.0 percent, and 3, respectively. |
 | | The prediction of GROWTH, the per capita growth rate in the first three quarters of 2004 at an annual rate, has increased to 3.2 from 3.0 for the previous forecast, and the prediction of INFLATION has increased from 1.9 to 2.0. |
 | | If both of these quarters are counted as good news quarters, the vote prediction rises from 58.74 percent to 60.42 percent, since each good news quarter contributes 0.837 percentage points to the vote prediction. |
| fairmodel.econ.yale.edu /vote2004/vot0404.htm (306 words) |
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