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Topic: Attribution of recent climate change

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	theWatt: Energy News and Discussion
		ExxonMobil's position on climate change and public policy solutions, which the oil giant's VP for Public Affairs apparently felt it necessary to take an hour and fifteen minutes of his busy schedule to clarify for the members of the blogosphere (a full list of participating bloggers can be found at the end of this post).
		According to a recent MIT survey, Americans now rank climate change as the country's most pressing environmental problem - a dramatic shift from three years ago, when they ranked climate change sixth out of 10 environmental concerns [see graphic to right].
		Although climate change cannot be said to cause any one event there has been serious analysis of the heatwave, an event that can actually be spilt into clusters of occurrences.
	www.thewatt.com /article-topic-20.html&author= (2177 words)

	Met Office: What caused recent climate change? (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		Detection of climate change involves showing that a particular change in climate is unusual relative to the natural variations in climate.
		Attribution involves demonstrating that a detected change is due to a particular cause (for example, human activity).
		The modelling study investigated the historic impact on the climate system of the combined effect of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol, lower atmosphere and stratospheric ozone and the effects of volcanoes and changes in the output of the sun.
	www.met-office.gov.uk /corporate/scitech0304/what_climate.html (557 words)

	Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
		Moreover, as described in Chapters 5 and 19, such observed changes often are in the directions expected as a response to climate stimuli, based on understandings expressed in the literature about biophysical processes that govern responses to climate (e.g., Root and Schneider, 2001; Root et al., 2001).
		Climate sensitivity—the globally averaged response of the surface temperature to a fixed doubling of CO —is based on static or equilibrium calculations in which the climatic model is allowed to reach a steady state after the CO increase is applied.
		Recent studies of climate change impacts have made use of transient or time-dependent scenarios of climate change that are derived from fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (AOGCMs).
	www.grida.no /climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/061.htm (1928 words)

	Attribution of recent climate change - Article from FactBug.org - the fast Wikipedia mirror site
		A summary of IPCC climate research may be found in the IPCC assessment reports; the NAS report and an overview of the report may be found here; the degree of consensus is discussed at scientific opinion on climate change.
		The attribution of climate change is discussed extensively, with references to peer-reviewed research, in chapter 12 or the IPCC TAR, which discusses The Meaning of Detection and Attribution, Quantitative Comparison of Observed and Modelled Climate Change, Pattern Correlation Methods and Optimal Fingerprint Methods.
		An essay in Science that surveyed http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686 of abstracts related to climate change and concluded that most accepted the consensus is discussed further in scientific opinion on climate change.
	www.factbug.org /cgi-bin/a.cgi?a=3201 (1187 words)

	Attribution of recent climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Attribution of recent climate change is the problem of discovering what mechanisms are responsible for observed changes in climate.
		The current scientific consensus, as expressed in 2001 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS), and recently confirmed by a joint statement of the G8 academies of science, is that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities [1].
		One global climate model's reconstruction of temperature change during the 20th century as the result of five studied forcing factors and the amount of temperature change attributed to each.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Attribution_of_recent_climate_change (1541 words)

	Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
		Externally forced climate variations may be due to changes in natural forcing factors, such as solar radiation or volcanic aerosols, or to changes in anthropogenic forcing factors, such as increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases or sulphate aerosols.
		As noted in the SAR, the unequivocal attribution of climate change to anthropogenic causes (i.e., the isolation of cause and effect) would require controlled experimentation with the climate system in which the hypothesised agents of change are systematically varied in order to determine the climate’s sensitivity to these agents.
		To attribute all or part of recent climate change to human activity, therefore, we need to demonstrate that alternative explanations, such as pure internal variability or purely naturally forced climate change, are unlikely to account for a set of observed changes that can be accounted for by human influence.
	www.grida.no /climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/443.htm (960 words)

	Global Warming: Climate Change: Greenhouse Gasses and Climate Change - Downbound.com
		Sometimes the term anthropogenic climate change is used to indicate the presumption of human influence.
		In the 2001 IPCC report on climate change, the possible changes in cloud cover were highlighted as one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change.
		Effects mediated by changes in cosmic rays (which are affected by the solar wind, which is affected by the solar output) such as changes in cloud cover.
	www.downbound.com /category_s/321.htm (3906 words)

	RealClimate » What is a first-order climate forcing?
		In it, he has made clear that he feels that apart from greenhouse gases, other climate forcings (the changes that affect the energy balance of the planet) are being neglected in the scientific discussion.
		The land use change used in the figure is related to the deforestation dataset of Ramankutty and Foley (1999) and includes the effects of albedo and vegetation type change, but not the impacts of increased irrigation or the 'greening' of the high latitudes (due to climate changes and possible CO fertilisation effects).
		Past climate changes have resulted in shifts in the geographical distributions of individual species and entire ecosystems, and when movement was not possible entire ecosystems disappeared and individual species became locally and at times globally extinct.
	www.realclimate.org /index.php?p=186 (7910 words)

	Choices Article - US Agriculture and Climate Change: Perspectives from Recent Research
		Agricultural crop production is likely to be affected by both climate change and the associated increase in atmospheric CO The projected changes in temperature and precipitation have the potential to affect crop yields either positively or negatively; elevated CO levels increase plant photosynthesis and thus crop yields.
		Changes in climatic conditions are also likely to alter livestock performance and growth, grazing availability, irrigation water supply and demand, pest populations, and incidence of extreme events (floods, droughts, hail, etc.).
		In both regions, climate change could increase the threat to the environment, at least given the nature of the two climate scenarios used in the analysis.
	www.choicesmagazine.org /2004-3/climate/2004-3-06.htm (2180 words)

	New Findings Highlight the Significance of Aerosols in the Earth's Climate System
		Indeed, computer simulations of climate change which include a primitive representation of aerosols, have demonstrated that aerosols can "offset" a significant fraction of the warming due to accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (see Figure 1).
		Recent precise measurements on polluted air masses flowing out of India have demonstrated that for the darkly colored aerosols typical of that region, fully two thirds of the sunlight that is blocked from reaching the ground is deposited into the lower atmosphere by aerosol light absorption.
		As a consequence, in order to assess the global impact of aerosols on climate, it is necessary to map their mean properties as functions of latitude, longitude, and altitude, as well as the variability of their properties with time (e.g., seasonal behavior due to meteorological and human patterns of activity).
	www.oar.noaa.gov /spotlite/archive/spot_aero.html (1098 words)

	Detection and Attribution of Climate Change (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		Humankind is presently involved in a climate change experiment that is global and, in the short term, irreversible.
		The purpose of the climate change detection and attribution activity is to identify variability and trends in the climate system and to ascribe these changes to specific causative factors, whether natural or man-induced.
		Climate change can be the result of: 1) natural internal variability; 2) natural external factors (e.g., changes in solar input, eruption of volcanoes); or 3) man-made factors (e.g., injection of GHGs and sulfates into the atmosphere).
	www.ogp.noaa.gov /mpe/ccdd/spotlight/detect6_00.htm (747 words)

	Wikinfo \| Global warming (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		The current scientific consensus is that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities (see Attribution of recent climate change) and the extent of this consensus is discussed at scientific opinion on climate change.
		Recent research (Peterson 2003; Parker 2004) indicates that estimates of temperature trends may not be much influenced by the urban heat island effect.
		It seems that it is diminishing as the climate grows warmer, and there has been speculation that areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the drift might face a colder climate in spite of the general global warming.
	www.wikinfo.org /wiki.php?title=Global_warming (5934 words)

	GCDIS: publications - Published Information that Formed the Basis for the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Major ...
		Climate Change and Wisconsin (230-F-97-008ww), Climate Change and Michigan (230-F-97-008v), Climate Change and Minnesota (230-F-97-008w).
		Climate Variability and Change in the Southwest: Final Report of the Southwest Regional Climate Change Symposium and Workshop, edited by R. Merideth, D. Liverman, R. Bales, and M. Patterson, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.
		Changing Spatial Structure of the Thermohaline Circulation in Response to Atmospheric CO Forcing in a Climate Model.
	globalchange.gov /pubs/nabasis/nabasis-atmosphere.html (5044 words)

	Recent Climate Change \| Science \| Climate Change \| U.S. EPA
		Implications for attribution of causes of observed change
		However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging.
		Changes in land cover and land use can also affect the amount of carbon dioxide taken up (or sequestered) or released by the land surface.
	epa.gov /climatechange/science/recentcc.html (358 words)

	Science & Environmental Policy Project - Biocrawler (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		In preparing its 1995 report, the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change unfairly marginalized scientific views which do not support the conclusion that human activity is causing climate change.
		As of mid-2005, the rise is between 0.085 and 0.26 degrees Celsius per decade, depending on which satellite record is used.
		Scientific evidence indicates that recent global warming is caused by human activity.
	www.biocrawler.com /encyclopedia/SEPP (713 words)

	Uncertainty and Climate Change, L. Mark Berliner (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind.
		Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties.
		Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis---Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
	projecteuclid.org /Dienst/UI/1.0/Summarize/euclid.ss/1081443227 (591 words)

	QUARCC: Quantifying Uncertainty in the Attribution of Recent Climate Change (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-10)
		QUARCC: Quantifying Uncertainty in the Attribution of Recent Climate Change
		To quantify the robustness of recent reports of an attributable anthropogenic influence on global climate through the application of a consistent optimal detection methodology to a wider range of alternative climate change mechanisms, a wider range of model predictions and a wider range of observational data sources than have been addressed to date.
		This will allow a physical interpretation of detection and attribution results in the framework of a non-linear model and suggest which physical parameters are constrained (or left unconstrained) by detection results.
	wind.mit.edu /~hansen/QUARCC.html (323 words)

	ICPAC:
		The recent past climate over the Horn of Africa is monitored on a dekadal (ten day), monthly and seasonal time scales in order to detect the evolution of any significant anomalies that could impact negatively on the socio – economic activities of the region.
		The Centre has recently acquired a super computer to enhance its dynamical modelling capability and is in the process of calibrating a regional spectral climate model for the Horn of Africa that will be implemented in the near future.
		Consensus pre-season climate outlook fora which are also organised in conjunction with the major climate centres world-wide in order to derive a single consensus forecast for the region.
	www.icpac.net (1030 words)

	[No title]
		Santer is the world's leading expert on detection and attribution of recent climate change.
		He served as convening lead author of the climate-change detection and attribution chapter of the 1995 IPCC report, and continues to be a critical contributor to the IPCC process.
		More recently, he was the convening lead author of a key chapter of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program¹s report on "Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere".
	www.purdue.edu /climate/seminars/Ben.doc (194 words)

	ScienceDaily: Scientists Advance In Detection And Attribution Of Climate Change
		Santer reports today on the identification of human influences on recent atmospheric temperature changes during a climate change session at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, D.C. The title of the panel is "Detection and Attribution Methods and Results of Climate Trends in Temperature Sensors, Species and Glaciers."
		The climate models analyzed by Santer and colleagues included changes in both manmade forcings (well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and the scattering effects of sulfate aerosols) and natural external forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols).
		Earlier Livermore research has determined that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of recent changes in the height of the tropopause the boundary between the turbulently mixed troposphere and the more stable stratosphere.
	www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2005/02/050222113953.htm (848 words)

	Scientists advance in detection and attribution of climate change
		Improved knowledge of this signal, and a better understanding of uncertainties in temperature observations, have helped to advance "detection and attribution" ("D&A") studies, which assist in unraveling the causes of recent climate change.
		The climate models analyzed by Santer and colleagues included changes in both manmade forcings (well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and the scattering effects of sulfate aerosols) and natural external forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols).
		Earlier Livermore research has determined that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of recent changes in the height of the tropopause - the boundary between the turbulently mixed troposphere and the more stable stratosphere.
	www.eurekalert.org /pub_releases/2005-02/dlnl-sai021705.php (449 words)

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