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Topic: Balassa Samuelson effect


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In the News (Mon 1 Dec 08)

  
 Penn effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The "Balassa-Samuelson effect" is a model cited as the principal cause of the Penn effect by neo-classical economics, as well as being a synonym of "Penn effect".
However, the effect implies that the money income level disparity as measured by international exchange rates is an illusion, because these exchange rates only apply to traded goods, a small proportion of consumption.
The Penn effect is the economic finding that real income ratios between high and low income countries are systematically exaggerated by GDP conversion at market exchange rates.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Penn_effect   (1245 words)

  
 Paul Samuelson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Stanislaw Ulam once challenged Samuelson to name one theory in all of the social sciences which is both true and nontrivial.
Paul A. Samuelson (born May 15, 1915) is an American economist known for his work in many fields of economics.
Generally speaking, Samuelson's contribution has been that, more than any other contemporary economist, he has contributed to raising the general analytical and methodological level in economic science.
www.wikipedia.org /wiki/Paul_Samuelson   (389 words)

  
 Inflation Differentials and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Monetary Unions
The results for the sample of Eastern European countries suggest that B-S effects have been of far greater magnitude as compared with either the US or euro area as would be expected given the transitional nature of these economies.
Moreover, the difference in magnitude of this effect between these monetary unions is not significant.
It is found that the B-S effect has been significant in both the euro area and the US.
www.iea.ie /conferences/abstracts/maccoille.shtml   (310 words)

  
 Purchasing power parity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The relative price differential between tradables and non-tradables from high-income to low-income countries is a consequence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and gives a big cost advantage to labour intensive production of tradable goods in low income countries (like China), as against high income countries (like Switzerland).
Neo-classical economics includes Balassa-Samuelson effect theory, which explains the PPP model adjustment giving the equilibrium CPI.
The corporate cost advantage is nothing more sophisticated than access to cheaper workers, but because the pay of those workers goes further in low-income countries than high, the relative pay differentials (inter-country) can be sustained for longer than would be the case otherwise.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Purchasing_power_parity   (2156 words)

  
 Abstracts
The effects of these constraints and their interaction are analyzed in a small open economy that is subject to external shocks and in which capital flows derive out of international investors' lending decisions to firms.
The paper contributes to the globalization debate by scrutinizing the international spillover effects which are provoked if a single country reduces the generosity of the unemployment compensation system or weakens labor union power.
Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students
www.warwick.ac.uk /res2002/abstracts_a_g.htm   (5436 words)

  
 SSRN-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia by Bostjan Jazbec
Jazbec, Bostjan, "Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia" (October 2002).
Paper presents a first-hand examination of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Slovenia.
SSRN-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia by Bostjan Jazbec
papers.ssrn.com /sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=346502   (238 words)

  
 Morgan Stanley
First, the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect, which says that poorer regions or countries that are catching up will have higher inflation rates than richer countries, has long been standard economic textbook stuff.
Also, it is critical that the ECB stays on course in ensuring that it does not ‘validate’ the ‘Teuro effect’ or underwrite a lax fiscal stance.
In other words, the ECB wants to effect a downward shift in the MPC, while the fiscal authorities are looking for a move higher along the existing MPC.
www.morganstanley.com /GEFdata/digests/20021101-fri.html   (11222 words)

  
 Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies
The Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect is usually considered as the prime explanation of the continuous real exchange rate appreciation of the central and east European (CEE) transition countries against their western European counterparts.
Our estimates of the BS term suggest that the Balassa-Samuelson effect in these 4 CEE countries does not have to be as sizeable as other studies propose.
Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies
ideas.repec.org /p/ihs/ihsesp/140.html   (344 words)

  
 The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis - BIS Working Papers No 143 - October 2003
Earlier studies that estimated the Balassa-Samuelson effect to be larger have often neglected to consider the impact of productivity differentials on inflation relative to the euro area, focusing instead only on their impact on domestic inflation.
The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis
This paper aims to explain differences in inflation between six central European economies - Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia - and the euro area in terms of differences in productivity growth between tradable and non-tradable sectors.
www.bis.org /publ/work143.htm   (284 words)

  
 Finance & Development, June 2002 - Why Are G-3 Exchange Rates So Fickle?
The Balassa-Samuelson effect seemed to work for a long time in explaining the trend real appreciation of the yen that started in the 1950s and of the deutsche mark from the 1960s onward.
During the 1990s, the Balassa-Samuelson effect probably ran in reverse, given that U.S. growth became stronger than Europe's and much stronger than Japan's.
Still, overall, reversion to purchasing power parity and the Balassa-Samuelson effect can explain only a fairly small share of short-term exchange rate volatility.
www.imf.org /external/pubs/ft/fandd/2002/06/rogoff.htm   (1430 words)

  
 Read about Purchasing power parity at WorldVillage Encyclopedia. Research Purchasing power parity and learn about Purchasing power parity here!
Balassa-Samuelson effect theory, which explains the PPP model adjustment giving the equilibrium CPI.
Gross Domestic Product, which is calculated by dividing the GDP of a country by its population.
encyclopedia.worldvillage.com /s/b/Purchasing_power_parity   (950 words)

  
 SUOMEN PANKKI - BANK OF FINLAND, BOFIT - phone +358-9-1832268 email bofit@bof.fi
This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Time series and panel cointegration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2.
This may be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable-goods-price-based real exchange rate, increases in non-tradable sector prices due to price liberali-sation and demand-side pressures, and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate due to the exchange rate regime and magnitude of capital inflows.
www.bof.fi /bofit/eng/6dp/abs/dp0602.stm   (204 words)

  
 Philipp Maier
An experimental study on the effects of rotation in committees".
We attempt to assess the effect of monetary policy in a panel model for 16 OECD countries.
European Journal of Political Economy, 17 (3), P. Abstract: Little care has been taken in most economic studies on political business cycles to separate the effects of fiscal and monetary policy.
www.philipp-maier.de   (1676 words)

  
 EconPapers: What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?
Abstract: This paper offers a detailed assessment of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect in eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC8).
The BS effect is, however, rather small (around half a percent per annum) and not sufficient to explain the observed inflation differentials between the CEEC8 and the EU11.
The results are as follows: Evidence for the BS effect is found.
econpapers.repec.org /paper/ubedpvwib/dp0416.htm   (385 words)

  
 SSRN-Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect on Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate During the Transition 6/03 too old to publish, Dana by Balazs Egert
In this paper, we investigate whether the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect holds for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia during the transition process.
We seek to calculate the extent to which the B-S effect may influence inflation and the real exchange rate and subsequently discuss policy implications.
The co-integration analysis suggests that the importance of the B-S effect does differ across countries.
papers.ssrn.com /sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=311963   (239 words)

  
 SUOMEN PANKKI - BANK OF FINLAND, BOFIT - phone +358-9-1832268 email bofit@bof.fi
The Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real appreciation of central and east European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts.
Therefore, empirical evidence apparently in favour of Balassa-Samuelson effects may require a re-interpretation.
It is shown that productivity shocks work not only through a Balassa-type supply channel but also through an investment demand channel.
www.bof.fi /bofit/fin/6dp/abs/dp0802.stm   (145 words)

  
 Center for Immigration Studies
The answer is “no.” We have understood for a long while that high productivity in traded goods can give rise to price and wage differences in non-traded sectors (the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect).
The negative effect comes from increases in the supply of labor and not the legal status of immigrants.
The challenge for those who believe this is so is to show that one can actually identify these effects and that the magnitude of these benefits is sizable.
www.cis.org /articles/2005/back205.html   (4351 words)

  
 The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies
The impact of productivity gains on both the Balassa-Samuelson effect and the behaviour of the tradable real exchange rate is especially assessed.
Real equilibrium exchange rate, EU enlargement, Balassa-Samuelson effect, productivity, net foreign assets, out-of sample panel
Subdividing the panel into sub-panels, we show that the B-S effect is a common feature to all economies, but that the tradable price-based real appreciation is a distinct feature of transition and emerging economies.
www.cepii.com /anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2004/wp04-15.htm   (196 words)

  
 oai:eiop.or.at:euirsc/P0136
This paper argues that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not of importance for the inflation target of the ECB.
It follows that whereas the Balassa-Samuelson effect could, at least in theory, be used to justify an inflation target well above zero, thedifference in productivity growth and thus the difference in the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect between countries as such cannot.
First, econometric tests of the Balassa-Samuelson effect suggest that its econometric significance is weak at best.
eiop.or.at /erpa/OAI/euirsc/EUIRSCAS-P0136.html   (130 words)

  
 The Regional Economist
When combined with a lesson on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, the Big Mac survey can give budding "consumers" of economics a taste of the principles of international currency valuation.
Michael R. Pakko is a senior economist and Patricia S. Pollard is a research officer, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
www.stlouisfed.org /publications/re/2004/a/pages/international_econ.html   (963 words)

  
 Inflation divergence in the euro area: the Balassa-Samuelson effect
This study estimates the Balassa-Samuelson effect for 7 EU countries.
The empirical analysis supports the existence of a Balassa-Samuelson effect for 6 of the sample countries.
According to this effect, inflation differential between the tradable and the non-tradable sector can be attributed to unbalanced productivity growth between the two sectors.
ideas.repec.org /a/taf/apeclt/v11y2004i5p329-332.html   (222 words)

  
 The William Davidson Institute (SMEALSearch) - Pal,Rangaswamy,Giles,Debnath
In this study we make an attempt to estimate Balassa - Samuelson (BS) effect in Bulgaria (after the introduction of the Currency Board).
The results of our empirical estimation do not provide a robust verification of the existence of BS effect in spite of the observed prerequisites and the accompanying economic indicators interrelations.
The importance of analysing inflation sources and dynamics in Bulgaria is imposed by (i) the long run process of price and inflation convergence to the Euro area and (ii) by the Currency Board operating in the country.
smealsearch.psu.edu /131646.html   (265 words)

  
 Inflation and Productivity Differentials in EMU (ResearchIndex)
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to find out whether the Balassa-Samuelson effect is important in EMU.
We use panel data going from 1970 to 1995 for the current EU members in order to estimate the long run effect of bilateral differences in productivity growth differential between the traded and non-traded goods sector on bilateral inflation differentials.
The regression results indicate a significant effect of the productivity differential, as proposed by the theory.
citeseer.ist.psu.edu /degrauwe00inflation.html   (160 words)

  
 Morgan Stanley
The more broad-based effect of a stronger rand should be seen in the inflation data as early as the first quarter with the PPI expected to fall sharply in January.
While the marked loss in competitiveness, excessive inflation, and negative wealth effects coming from the equity market weighed on the Dutch economy in previous years, the outlook for 2003 is likely to be blighted by a moderation in house prices, sharp increases in pension contributions, and further fiscal tightening.
But, the effect of the stronger rand is likely to be apparent only late in the first quarter.
www.morganstanley.com /GEFdata/digests/20021223-mon.html   (19182 words)

  
 Chief Economist JP Cotis comments on Balassa-Samuelson effect in CEC5 countries
Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson effect in CEC5 countries in the prospect of EMU enlargement" by M.A. Kovacs.
Chief Economist JP Cotis comments on Balassa-Samuelson effect in CEC5 countries
This publication proposes a number of policy priorities for each country that would help promote stronger economic growth.
www.oecd.org /LongAbstract/0,2546,en_2649_33733_2510345_1_1_1_1,00.html   (151 words)

  
 China in Transition
This reflects the "Balassa-Samuelson effect," which states that even if the law of one price generally applies to tradable goods such as industrial products, most services, which are non-tradable goods, are cheaper in low-income countries as they reflect differences in wage levels.
This observation indicates that the disparity between a currency's exchange rate and its theoretical PPP will narrow as that country's economy develops, and when it approaches the level of industrialized nations, its exchange rate converges to a level that generally matches its PPP.
However, it has been observed that the lower the income levels in a developing country, the lower the exchange rate of its currency compared to its PPP, and China is no exception.
www.rieti.go.jp /en/china/03032001.html   (675 words)

  
 Second Nature: Economic Origins of Human Evolution
161-172; "Habit Formation in a Monetary Growth Model," Economics Letters 73(1), 2001, 51-55; and "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Implications for Growth and PPP," (with M. Leon-Ledesma), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, forthcoming.
As a consequence, the transition from a feed-as-you-go to a hunting-gathering strategy leads to a quantitative and qualitative improvement in the human diet, having an economizing effect on the digestive system.
This transition is in line with the expensive-tissue hypothesis, which says that animals with cheap guts can afford expensive (i.e., large) brains.
www.eh.net /bookreviews/library/0491.shtml   (1402 words)

  
 Abstracts Heft 2/2002
Our reasoning is based on the Balassa Samuelson effect and on possible speculative attacks in case of narrow fluctuation bands combined with the lack of realignment options in ERM II.
This paper analyses the effects of Agenda 2000‘s structural policy reform on the stocks of outward FDI to the EU member countries.
In this paper the effects of penalty agreements on pricing and performance will be explored.
wko.at /wp/extra/wipolb/2002/abstracts2002_2.htm   (2842 words)

  
 EconPapers: The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?
Furthermore, we argue that because of this and the high share of food items and regulated prices, the CPI may be misleading when analysing the Balassa-Samuelson effect.
However, we also shed new light on the fact that the impact of the internal transmission mechanism on overall inflation is considerably attenuated by the low share of non-tradables in the consumer price index.
Using panel cointegration techniques, we find strong empirical evidence in favour of what we call the internal transmission mechanism since productivity growth in the open sector is found to bring about non-tradable inflation.
netec.mcc.ac.uk /WoPEc/data/Papers/wdipapers2002-483.html   (335 words)

  
 The Maastricht Criteria after Enlargement: Old Rules for New Members? (SMEALSearch) - Pal,Rangaswamy,Giles,Debnath
Due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, most new member countries may be faced with the dilemma of either implementing excessively restrictive policies to contain inflation during the qualification period for EMU, or accept a delay in being able to adopt the euro.
This is not necessarily the case for the inflation criterion (if viewed together with the exchange rate stability criterion).
The criterion regarding inflation should be adapted to the fact that EMU now exists.
smealsearch2.psu.edu /124193.html   (290 words)

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