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	Base rate fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect, is a logical fallacy that occurs when irrelevant information is used to make a probability judgment, especially when empirical statistics about the probability are available (called the "base rate" or "prior probability").
		Richard Nisbett has argued that some attributional biases like the fundamental attribution error are instances of the base rate fallacy: people underutilize "consensus information" (the "base rate") about how others behaved in similar situations and instead prefer simpler dispositional attributions.
		Bar-Hillel, M. The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Base_rate_fallacy (311 words)

	Fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		A fallacy is a component of an argument that is demonstrably flawed in its logic or form, thus rendering the argument invalid (except in the case of begging the question) in whole.
		Fallacy of Accident (also called destroying the exception or a dicto simpliciter ad dictum secundum quid) meaning to argue erroneously from a general rule to a particular case, without proper regard to particular conditions that vitiate the application of the general rule; e.g.
		Fallacy of Many Questions (Plurium Interrogationum), wherein several questions are improperly grouped in the form of one, and a direct categorical answer is demanded, e.g.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Fallacy (2422 words)

	Koehler, Jonathan J. (1993) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth, Psycoloquy: 4,#49 Base Rate (1) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		In most experiments, base rates are equated with prior probabilities, and deviations between subjects' judgments and the Bayesian posterior probability are used to measure the extent to which the base rate fallacy has been committed.
		A base rate may be defined as the relative frequency with which an event occurs or an attribute is present in a population (Ginossar and Trope, 1987; Hinsz, Tindale, Nagao, Davis, and Robertson, 1988; Lanning, 1987).
		Borgida, E. and Brekke, N. (1981) The base rate fallacy in attribution and prediction.
	psycprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk /archive/00000343 (4931 words)

	Encyclopedia :: encyclopedia : Logical fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		A logical fallacy may mean nothing more than a fallacy or it may mean an error in deductive reasoning, i.e., a formal fallacy.
		In the latter case, it is a flaw in the structure of a deductive argument as opposed to an error in the premises.
		Recognizing fallacies in everyday arguments may be difficult since arguments are often imbedded in rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between statements.
	www.hallencyclopedia.com /Logical_fallacy (837 words)

	Brunswik Essay #2
		Quite the contrary, the literature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation.
		Base rates are also used more when they are reliable and relatively ore diagnostic than available individuating information.
		As Funder notes, real world base rates tend to be less reliable than the laboratory base rates that the subjects are expected to treat as "definitionally true."...[Thus] it is hard to discern the significance of laboratory responses for real world decision behavior" (p.44).
	www.albany.edu /cpr/brunswik/notes/essay2.html (6942 words)

	THE BASE RATE FALLACY RECONSIDERED: (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Section 4 considers the assumptive relation between base rate tasks and the Bayesian model, and concludes that normative claims are restricted by the lack of an unambiguous mapping of tasks onto this model.
		It is suggested that a base rate has its greatest impact in tasks that (a) are structured in ways that sensitize decision-makers to the base rate, (b) are conceptualized by the decision-maker in relative frequentist terms, (c) contain cues to base rate diagnosticity, and (d) invoke heuristics that focus attention on the base rate.
		In the typical base rate task, subjects are provided with a base rate summary statistic (e.g., 85% of the cabs in the city are Green) which they are expected to remember, trust and use, even in the face of individuating information that supports an opposing hypothesis.
	bbsonline.org /documents/a/00/00/05/31/bbs00000531-00/bbs.koehler.html (16383 words)

	The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the (ResearchIndex) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the (ResearchIndex)
		The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the
		18.1%: The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the Difficulty of..
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /647365.html (453 words)

	roddy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Thus, the topic of base rate neglect is primarily two pronged: whether people do (or should) neglect base rates and whether, regardless of our descriptive use of base rates, we should still embrace Bayes' theorem as a Normative and Descriptive model.
		Because the use of base rates and Bayes' Theorem in real world problems is under such intense debate, I have chosen to address the problems doctors face in making diagnoses based on presenting symptoms and disease base rates.
		Medical schools should teach and emphasize base rate for different diseases and traumas before they are coordinated into the ensuing mental scripts which the doctors will use for all other facets of diagnosis and treatment.
	www.unc.edu /courses/2005fall/psyc/135/001/tutorials/roddy.htm (1511 words)

	Some basic math concepts for security (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The base rate fallacy comes into play when one ignores, or is unaware of, the very low probability of an occurrence in comparison to another.
		Thus, though the accuracy of the mechanism is high it is very likely that the rate of false alarms would eventually cause the people running the mechanism to distrust its results.
		The crossover error rate is the point at which the FRR and FAR are equal, and thus is a valid measure of system performance that can be used to compare different systems.
	www.sibelle.info /oped4.htm (371 words)

	Irene Trinette Jones (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Subjects were presented with base-rate information concerning the rate of dishonesty in a particular group (75% of the members were said to be dishonest).
		Following this, they judged the probability that the individual they read about was one of the dishonest members of the group.
		The results indicated that subjects deviated from base-rates based on the amount of diagnostic information they received.
	www-mcnair.berkeley.edu /94CASymposium/Irene_Trinette_Jones.html (459 words)

	The Base Rate Fallacy MythThe Base Rate Fallacy Myth (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Nevertheless, this study is widely cited as a convincing demonstration that base rates are "ignored" (e.g., Fagley, 1988; Nisbett andamp; Borgida, 1975).
		Consider that the general base rate for hypothyroidism is less than 1 in 1000 among young adult males (De Keyser andamp; Van Herle, 1985), although the primary symptoms of this disease -- dermatological problems, depression, and fatigue -- are quite common.
		A base rate may be defined as the relative frequency with which an event occurs or an attribute is present in a population (Ginossar andamp; Trope, 1987; Hinsz, Tindale, Nagao, Davis, andamp; Robertson, 1988; Lanning, 1987).
	psycprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk /perl/local/psyc/makedoc?id=343&type=xml (4762 words)

	CiteULike: The Base-Rate Fallacy and Its Implications for the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The Base-Rate Fallacy and Its Implications for the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection
		This paper aims to demonstrate that, for a reasonable set of assumptions, the false alarm rate is the limiting factor for the performance of an intrusion detection system.
		This is due to the base-rate fallacy phenomenon,...
	www.citeulike.org /user/cpk/article/79167 (247 words)

	Base Rate Fallacy
		The base rate fallacy (another name is the "random drug test dilemma") causes a lot of well-meaning people confusion when they try to apply statistics.
		There are cases in which the false positive rate is substantially different from the false negative, but for now I'll ignore them.
		The base rate fallacy rears its head in drug testing, tests for disease (cancer, AIDS, heart disease), polygraph tests, and numerous other types of tests.
	home.earthlink.net /~kstengel226/sci_tech/stat/base.html (561 words)

	Chalos, BRIA 1989 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		This study examined differences in the utilization of loan default base rate information between individual loan officers and committees.
		Base rate utilization was examined relative to (1) the representativeness of the financial statement information and
		Results indicated that both individuals and loan committees were affected by the representativeness of the financial statement information in their utilization of population default rates.
	aaahq.org /abo/BRIA/ABSTRACT/abs89-4.htm (87 words)

	Explaining.Mind96: Re: The Base Rate Fallacy
		> The Base Rate Fallacy is the belief that probability rates are false.
		The base rate fallacy is the failure to take base rates into acount when
		It is not yet clear that you understand base rates.
	www.ecs.soton.ac.uk /~harnad/Hypermail/Explaining.Mind96/0221.html (745 words)

	UW - Computer Security and Cryptography Seminar: February 2006 Events
		Axelsson observed that a few IDS mistakes are translated into a large number of false positives because of the volume of benign events dwarfs the volume of intrusions.
		We argue that the problem of false positives is not inherent part of intrusion detection but it is more a question of resources available for detection.
		We show how the base-rate fallacy can be used to build both efficient and accurate detectors.
	www.cs.wisc.edu /areas/sec/secsem/200602.html (213 words)

	Base Rate Neglect
		Base Rate Neglect: An Insider View of Judgment.
		GIGERENZER, G., W. HELL and H. Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable.
		Base Rates Versus Prior Beliefs in Bayesian Inference.
	base-rate-neglect.behaviouralfinance.net (359 words)

	UNM PSYCHOLOGY STUDENTS HONORED FOR RESEARCH PAPERS
		The primary hypotheses were that patients who were prematurely discharged would show a higher recidivism rate than those with normal discharge.
		Mayfield’s paper was titled “Individual Contributions to the Base Rate Fallacy.” The research study investigated the occurrence of base rate fallacy with respect to non-diagnostic information and given base rates.
		It also delved into the locus of control, and mood traits and states which were looked at to see if they had an effect on the base rate fallacy.
	www.unm.edu /news/Releases/May15psychology.htm (616 words)

	[No title]
		One problem is called the ‘base-rate fallacy’, which stems from neglecting the basic or initial probability of some event while trying to figure out a conditional probability of the event given some ‘test’ or ‘symptom’ of it.
		Many people intuitively think that this will be somewhere near the reliability rating of the test, that is, about 99%, or at least that it is pretty likely that you have aids.
		The base-rate fallacy is an interesting phenomenon of human reasoning, but what does it have to do with the confirmation of scientific hypotheses?
	www.scar.utoronto.ca /~seager/baserate.htm (1212 words)

	SEP: Examples, Tables, and Proof Sketches: A Supplement to Bayes' Theorem
		But, when asking questions about total evidence one must attend closely to the base rate, which almost always provides evidentially relevant information about the hypothesis.
		People often commit the "base rate fallacy" (Kahneman and Tversky 1973, 237-251) by mistaking incremental evidence for total evidence.
		They treat the result of a highly, but not completely, reliable test as though it provides conclusive evidence for the truth of some hypothesis even though the antecedent improbability of the hypothesis should lead them to question the accuracy of the test result in the case at hand.
	plato.stanford.edu /entries/bayes-theorem/supplement.html (1906 words)

	Base Rate Fallacy
		So even with a 95% accuracy rate, the test will find, on average, 95 of the 100 actual spies, and accuse 4995 innocent employees of spying.
		First, let's use a polygraph accuracy rate of 70%, but assume we still have 100 spies.
		If we keep a 70% accuracy rate, but assume we have only five spies, we will find 3.5 spies (70% of five) — let's say four — and falsely accuse 29,999 (30% of 99,996).
	home.earthlink.net /~kstengel226/civ_lib/polygraph/dilemma.html (410 words)

	PhilSci Archive - Realist Ennui and the Base Rate Fallacy
		In each case, we are tricked by a base rate fallacy, one much discussed in the psychological literature.
		In this paper we consider this accusation and use it as an explanation for why the two most prominent 'wholesale' arguments in the literature seem irresolvable.
		In so doing, we connect the point about base rates to the wholesale/retail distinction; we believe it hints at an answer of how to distinguish profitable from unprofitable realism debates.
	philsci-archive.pitt.edu /archive/00001739 (222 words)

	One-Off Scenarios As Individuating Information, Repeated-Game Contexts as Base Rates: On the Construction and ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		We first present evidence from psychology on the so-called base-rate fallacy (Bar-Hillel 1980): experimental participants, when given bits of information about a population or a set of events or facts and "individuating" information about a member of that same population or set, tend to under-weigh the population information and to over-weigh the individuating information.
		In fact, a consensus seems be emerging that everyday experiences typically induce potent and resilient base rates that are not easily unsettled by individuating information and that the base rate fallacy may well-be a myth for most of those situations that people typically encounter in real life (e.g.
		We next note that many of the so-called anomalies in economics are connected to experimental designs that try to implement one-off or finitely repeated game or decision scenarios (e.g., results from social dilemma games, ultimatum and dictator games, trust games, principal-agent games, etc.), i.e.
	www.nyu.edu /econ/dept/esa/ortmann.htm (397 words)

	Anecdotal Evidence - EvoWiki (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		This page is part of the EvoWiki encyclopedia of fallacies.
		You commit this fallacy if you defend a purported correlation between two things by citing special instances where those two things are present.
		This is a fallacy because it is easy to find such instances even if there is no correlation.
	wiki.cotch.net /index.php/Anecdotal_evidence (192 words)

	SFB 504 glossary: Base-rate fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		In making probabilistic inferences perceivers ought to take account of general, broadly based information about population characteristics, and more specifically the prior probability of an event occuring.
		The tendency to under use, sometimes even ignore, such information is called the base rate fallacy.
		Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995) argue that the base-rate fallacy is due to the presentation of the information in probability format and that natural sampling reduces the base-rate fallacy.
	www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de /glossary/baserate.htm (108 words)

	Charles Twardy -- Bayesianism (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Thus, in the 1970s and 1980s, Bayesianism became a rational yardstick for the subjects in psychological experiments, but not for the experimenters who analyzed their subjects.
		Subjects were judged rational if their inference s from data to hypotheses followed Bayes' theorem, otherwise their judgments were recorded as an error in reasoning, such as the base rate fallacy....
		This was not recorded as an error in reasoning, although it had all the characteristics of the base rate fallacy.
	www.csse.monash.edu.au /~ctwardy/bayes.shtml (184 words)

	Research Abstract-Hulusi Ogut
		However, the usefulness of IDSs has been questioned recently because an intrusion signal from even a high quality IDS does not imply that the user is more likely to be a hacker than a normal user, a problem known as the base-rate fallacy in IDSs.
		The base-rate fallacy problem has two undesirable effects on firms: (i) acting on every intrusion signal is costly because of high rate of false alarms and (ii) ignoring intrusion signals renders IDSs useless.
		However, we show, using a game theoretical model of two interconnected firms, that both interdependence and imperfect detection reduce firms’ investments in security technologies (preventive as well as detection) and in insurance coverage and that a higher degree of interdependence or a lower intrusion detection rate lowers investment and insurance coverage.
	www.utdallas.edu /~ogut/research.htm (880 words)

	The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications (ResearchIndex) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		54.8%: The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection - Axelsson (2000)
		14.0%: The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the - Difficulty Of Intrusion
		The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection - Axelsson (2000)
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /709038.html (196 words)

	Base-rate Fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The Base-Rate Fallacy - Clark Elliott, ECT 582
		Sam goes to Doctor A who orders a lab test for Framistat's Disease.
		But the chances that you have it are still zero, obviously, since the disease does not exist.
	condor.depaul.edu /~elliott/582/base-rate.html (191 words)

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