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Topic: Bayesian probability

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In the News (Mon 20 Nov 17)

  BIPS: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
From Laplace to SN 1987A: Bayesian inference in astrophysics (Loredo 1990)
From Laplace to Supernova SN 1987A: Bayesian Inference in Astrophysics (1990)
The Promise of Bayesian Inference for Astrophysics (1992)
www.astro.cornell.edu /staff/loredo/bayes   (2872 words)

 Bayesian probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Bayesian probability is an interpretation of probability suggested by Bayesian theory, which holds that the concept of probability can be defined as the degree to which a person believes a proposition.
Bayesian theory also suggests that Bayes' theorem can be used as a rule to infer or update the degree of belief in light of new information.
Bayesian probability is supposed to measure the degree of belief an individual has in an uncertain proposition, and is in that respect subjective.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bayesian_probability   (2117 words)

 Workshop Statistics: Discovery with Data, A Bayesian Approach, An Introduction to Bayesian Thinking
The value of the proportion p is unknown, and a person expresses his or her opinion about the uncertainty in the proportion by means of a probability distribution placed on a set of possible values of p.
Note that the posterior probability of the hypothesis H is approximately equal to the classical p-value.
Bayesian methods allow a person to use his or her subjective beliefs about the location of the parameter in the inference problem.
www.keycollege.com /ws/Bayesian/tutorial/a_brief_tutorial.htm   (1171 words)

 Curiosity is bliss: Bayesian probability and networks
Bayesian or belief networks are an extension of this causality or dependency relation to more than two variables.
Each node is then described by a probability distribution that is conditioned on the state of the nodes that it depends on.
A) is the probability of being in B (or actually inside the intersection of A and B) given that you are within A. Posted by Julien.
blog.monstuff.com /archives/000108.html   (1661 words)

 What is Bayesian filter? - A Word Definition From the Webopedia Computer Dictionary
Bayesian filtering is predicated on the idea that spam can be filtered out based on the probability that certain words will correctly identify a piece of e-mail as spam while other words will correctly identify a piece of e-mail as legitimate and wanted.
Bayesian filters examine the words in a body of an e-mail, its header information and metadata, word pairs and phrases and even HTML code that can identify, for example, certain colors that can indicate a spam e-mail.
Bayesian filters are adaptable in that the filter can train itself to identify new patterns of spam and can be adapted by the human user to adjust to the user’s specific parameters for identifying spam.
webopedia.com /Bayesian_filter.html   (371 words)

 The Reference Frame: Bayesian probability II
It is often said that there are two basic interpretations of probability: frequency probability (the ratio of events in a repeated experiment) and Bayesian probability (the amount of belief that a statement is correct).
I am, much like an overwhelming majority of physicists, statisticians, and probability theorists (see the Wikipage about the frequency probability to verify my statement) convinced that it is only the frequency probability that has a well-defined quantitative meaning that can be studied by conventional scientific methods.
The Bayesian probability paradigms imply that it is the simpler model, even if its predictions are a little bit less accurate than the predictions of the model with many parameters.
motls.blogspot.com /2006/01/bayesian-probability-ii.html   (2144 words)

 [No title]
Bayesian probability is the name given to several related interpretations of probability, which have in common the application of probability to any kind of statement, not just those involving random variables.
Since it is not obvious how large a time-window of inputs is appropriate, or what preprocessing of inputs is best, this can be viewed as a regression problem in which there are many possible input variables, some of which may actually be irrelevant to the prediction of the output variable.
A preliminary analysis of Bayesian probabilities of several study variables suggests that it may be possible to predict attributes of the users based on their own descriptive language.
www.lycos.com /info/bayesian-probability.html   (514 words)

 Implement Bayesian inference using PHP, Part 1
Bayesian inference techniques have been widely used in developing various types of Artifical Intelligence (AI) systems (for instance for text retrieval, classification, medical diagnosis, data mining, troubleshooting, and more), so this article series will be of interest to anyone interested in building intelligent Web applications.
You will often find Bayesian inference sharing the same bed with a subjective view of probability in which the probability of a proposition is equated with one's subjective degree of belief in the proposition.
The probability of the ++ evidence key is the greatest for the d1 hypothesis.
www-128.ibm.com /developerworks/web/library/wa-bayes1   (5287 words)

 Bayesian Belief Networks
I) is the Prior Probability - the subjective probability of the Hypothesis regardless of the evidence.
I), which is the probability of the hypothesis in context I regardless of the evidence.
Using the known probabilities we may calculate the 'initialised' probability of C, by summing the various combinations in which C is true, and breaking those probabilites down into known probabilities:
www.murrayc.com /learning/AI/bbn.shtml   (726 words)

 cause, chance and Bayesian statistics - Bayes theory for conditional and marginal probabilities
A key feature of Bayesian methods is the notion of using an empirically derived probability distribution for a population parameter.
Bayesian proponents argue, correctly, that the classical methods of statistical inference have built-in subjectivity (through the choice of a sampling plan and the assumption of ‘randomness’ of distributions) and that an advantage of the Bayesian approach is that the subjectivity is made explicit [4].
Thus, the probability that the taxis the witness claimed to be blue actually being blue, given the witness's identification ability, is 12/29, i.e.
www.abelard.org /briefings/bayes.htm   (2135 words)

 A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation
Bayesian probability theory is the sole piece of math I know that is accessible at the high school level, and that permits a technical understanding of a subject matter - the dynamics of belief - that is an everyday real-world domain and has emotionally meaningful consequences.
Probability theory, as math, does not distinguish between post-facto and advance prediction, because probability theory assumes that probability distributions are fixed properties of a hypothesis.
To a Bayesian, probabilities are anticipations, not mere beliefs to proclaim from the rooftops.
www.yudkowsky.net /bayes/technical.html   (20728 words)

 The Robotics WEBook - Bayesian probability theory
Bayesian probability theory only began to be re-appreciated in different application domains (first in physics and later in related sciences such as astronomy) during various periods of the 20th century, against a scientific background that was, by then, more or less monopolised by traditional statistics.
The Bayesian paradigm is consistent, or, in other words, the Bayesian framework is free from paradoxes and internal contradictions: it does not matter in what form or in what order the available information is processed by the Bayesian probability tools and algorithms, because the result will always be the same.
Bayesian theory is no exception to this custom of using graphs to model the structural relationships in a given information processing system: a node contains the information about a set of domain variables, and the edges denote conditional (in)dependence between the variables in the connected nodes.
www.roble.info /basicST/stat/bayes-index.php   (4318 words)

 Old-school theory is a new force | CNET News.com
Researchers are also using Bayesian models to determine correlations between specific symptoms and diseases, create personal robots, and develop artificially intelligent devices that "think" by doing what data and experience tell them to do.
Bayesian theory can roughly be boiled down to one principle: To see the future, one must look at the past.
Bayes theorized that the probability of future events could be calculated by determining their earlier frequency.
news.com.com /2009-1001-984695.html   (2051 words)

 Human Genetics - Mendelian Inheritance 6
The probability of being a non-carrier and having a normal son is 1/2 x 1.
The relative probability of your patient being a carrier after the birth of one normal son is 1/3 and the relative probability of her not being a carrier is now 2/3.
However, if she were to have a third son and he were affected, all of this Bayesian probability calculation would not be necessary.
www.uic.edu /classes/bms/bms655/lesson7.html   (1521 words)

Probability theory is the special case of quantum mechanics in which ones algebra of observables is commutative.
In the Bayesian view, this must be derived by considering copies of a single experiment and considering the probability that n/N of them have success.
Bayesian analysis also makes your life infinitely simpler, in the sense that you don't have to run around remembering a zillion different classical-statistical formulae for the case of normal distribution with known mean and unknown variance, unknown mean and known variance, and so on.
math.ucr.edu /home/baez/bayes.html   (8656 words)

 Probability Theory As Extended Logic (via CobWeb/3.1 planetlab2.cs.unc.edu)   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
These article are on the application of probability theory to the problem of estimating the frequency of oscillation of a non-sinusoidal signal in data that consists of counts.
Sivia: We have three papers by Dr. Devinder Sivia on the application of Bayesian probability theory to spectral analysis, analyzing quasielastic neutron scattering data, and extracting Structure-Factor amplitudes from powder diffraction data.
Volker Dose runs the Bayesian data analysis group at the Max-Plank-Institut and over the last few years has put together what is, in my opinion, one of the finest Bayesian groups on earth.
bayes.wustl.edu.cob-web.org:8888   (689 words)

 libbpfl - Bayesian Probability Filtering Library   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
The Bayesian Probability Filtering Library (BPFL) is a C++ library library intended for creation of Bayesian Filtering Programs.
If you don't know what Bayesian Filters are, please read the documentation top page.
Although there are currently at least three mail filters using Bayesian filtering, the filter is being written as an example of how to use the library.
libbpfl.sourceforge.net   (113 words)

PdALx (Probability difference is At Least x) in picture form:
Bayesian view: G unknown means it has probability distribution
Bayesian hierarchical model allows for different trial effects
www.pnl.gov /bayesian/Berry   (351 words)

 Bayesian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Bayesian refers to probability and statistics -- in particular:
the degree-of-belief interpretation of probability, as opposed to frequency or proportion or propensity interpretations; or
The development has taken place after his death, and includes:
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bayesian   (111 words)

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