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Topic: Business cycle


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In the News (Sun 23 Jun 19)

  
  Business Cycle
Business cycle is the regular pattern of fluctuations in economic activity.
The usual pattern of the business cycle is: bust, recovery, boom and recession.
The movements in the business cycles are not always regular and predictive.
www.economyprofessor.com /economictheories/business-cycle.php   (174 words)

  
 Business Cycle
The five stages of the business cycle are growth (expansion), peak, recession (contraction), trough and recovery.
At one time, business cycles were thought to be extremely regular, with predictable durations.
But today business cycles are widely known to be irregular - varying in frequency, magnitude and duration.
www.investopedia.com /terms/b/businesscycle.asp   (389 words)

  
  The Business Cycle
However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) weighs GDP relatively low as a primary business cycle indicator because GDP is subject to frequent revision and it is reported only on a quarterly basis (the business cycle is tracked on a monthly basis).
While there is economic data to support a diminished business cycle, other economists argue that the data prior to 1929 was not very accurate and tended to overstate the magnitude of the economic swings.
Whether the business cycle has become less intense has practical importance because after World War II the U.S. government initiated policies with the intent to minimize the severity of economic contractions, so a decrease in the intensity of the contractions would support the arguments of those who advocate such policies.
www.quickmba.com /econ/macro/business-cycle   (403 words)

  
  Business cycles   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Business cycles are recurring cycles of economic events involving a period of more rapid than normal or average growth (the expansionary phase) and culminating in a peak, followed by a phase of slower than average growth (a recession), or a period of negative growth (a depression) culminating in a trough.
Business cycles have commonly been viewed as evolving around a long-term growth trend, especially in the post-war period, and this has typically led to a divorce of 'business cycle theory', which attempts to explain the fluctuations around the trend, from 'growth theory', which attempts to explain the trend growth itself.
Business cycle modeling in the post-war period has usually adopted the approach, suggested by the work of Frisch (1966 [1933]) and Slutsky (1937 [1927]), of regarding the economic system as fundamentally stable but being bombarded by a series of shocks or unexpected events.
pioneer.netserv.chula.ac.th /~ckieatvi/Fathom_Bus_cycles.htm   (899 words)

  
  Business cycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.
Cycles between 1945 and the 1990s in the United States were generally more restrained and followed political factors, such as fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Business cycle theory has been most effective in microeconomics where it aids in the preparation of risk management scenarios and timing investment, especially in infrastructural capital that must pay for itself over a long period, and which must fund itself by cashflow in late years.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Business_cycle   (1799 words)

  
 ipedia.com: Business cycle Article   (Site not responding. Last check: )
In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.
Cycles between 1945 and the 1990s in the United States were generally more restrained and followed political factors, such as fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Business cycle theory has been most effective in microeconomics where it aids in the preparation of risk management scenarios and timing investment, especially in infrastructural capital that must pay for itself over a long period, and which must fund itself by cashflow in late years.
www.ipedia.com /business_cycle.html   (1287 words)

  
 How the Business Cycle Happens - Mises Institute
The problem of the business cycle is one of general boom and depression; it is not a problem of exploring specific industries and wondering what factors make each one of them relatively prosperous or depressed.
To the extent that such varying cycles (such as the 20-year "building cycle" or the seven-year locust cycle) may exist, however, they are irrelevant to a study of business cycles in general or to business depressions in particular.
The early business cycle theorists were correct in focusing their attention on the crisis and depression: for these are the phases that puzzle and shock economists and laymen alike, and these are the phases that most need to be explained.
www.lewrockwell.com /rothbard/business-cycle.html   (9099 words)

  
 Business Cycle
Economists did not try to determine the causes of business cycles until the increasing severity of economic depressions became a major concern in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
A psychological theory of business cycles, formulated by the British economist Arthur Pigou, states that the optimism or pessimism of business leaders may influence an economic trend.
In fact, an important concern in dealing with the problems of the business cycle is the fear that inappropriate measures might precipitate a severe recession or even a depression.
www.latifm.com /look/Business_Cycle.htm   (1520 words)

  
 Business Cycle | Encyclopedia of Business and Finance
All modern, industrialized countries have fluctuations in their rates of economic activity, leading to the observation that one nation's economy is "booming" while another economy is in a "recession."; When an economy goes from a positive to a negative rate of growth, it is said to have reached a "peak" and entered a recession.
Given the diversity of general economic cycles, one can find turns in the general level of economic activity in which individual sectors of the economy do, at least for a time, appear to be independent of the rest of the economy.
The standard business cycle is sometimes referred to as the inventory cycle, and some business cycle theorists popularly explain the severity of turns in the economy by the coincidence of timing in the individual cycles.
www.bookrags.com /research/business-cycle-ebf-01   (450 words)

  
 TraderTalk, Asset Allocation & The Business Cycle   (Site not responding. Last check: )
It is important to recognize where the pendulum of business activity is, in which direction it is swinging and the relative value of investment vehicles in the context of this cycle.
Being aware of the business cycle from boom to bust and the consequent cyclical nature of share price changes it should be apparent that a buy and hold strategy of stocks is irrational.
So a very reasonable trading rotation in a business cycle is: monitor the bond, stock and commodity markets with a 40 week (200 day) MA and have your money invested in the appropriate investment class in the cycle, i.e.
www.tradertalk.com /tutorial/asalot.html   (2310 words)

  
 Business Cycles, by Christina D. Romer: The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics: Library of Economics and Liberty
Business cycles as we know them today were first identified and analyzed by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 book, Measuring Business Cycles.
Business cycles are dated according to when the direction of economic activity changes.
Business cycles do occur, however, because there are disturbances to the economy of one sort or another.
www.econlib.org /library/Enc/BusinessCycles.html   (1861 words)

  
 Foreign Affairs - The End of the Business Cycle? - Steven Weber
Business cycles -- expansions and contractions across most sectors of an economy -- have come to be taken as a fact of life.
The dampening of the business cycle will change the global economy and undermine assumptions and arguments that political economists use to understand it.
Business cycles have been linked to big changes in international politics and economics over the last century.
www.foreignaffairs.org /19970701faessay3785/steven-weber/the-end-of-the-business-cycle.html?mode=print   (553 words)

  
 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - The Region - Real Business Cycles: A Legacy of Countercyclical Policies (March ...   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Business cycles have troubled market-oriented economies since the dawn of the industrial age.
In his 1992 book on business cycles, Victor Zarnowitz records that a financial crisis occurred during the contractionary phase of four out of the 15 business cycles between 1870 and 1927, and two financial crises occurred during the contractionary phase of the business cycle that began in November 1927 and ended in March 1933.
The theory suggests that policy initiatives to buffer the effects of business cycles may not be necessary; postwar business cycles are close to what we would ideally expect as a result of random fluctuations in the growth rate of business-sector productivity.
woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us /pubs/region/99-03/cycles.cfm   (4401 words)

  
 FRBSF: Economic Letter - Changes in the Business Cycle (05/14/1999)   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Business cycle peaks and troughs cannot be identified immediately when they occur for two reasons.
Romer (1994) argues that the dating of pre-World War II business cycles was done in a manner that tended to date peaks earlier and troughs later than the post-World War II methods would have done.
Thus, one reason business cycles can change, even if the underlying economy or source of disturbances haven't, is because policymakers do a better (or worse) job of stabilizing the economy.
www.frbsf.org /econrsrch/wklyltr/wklyltr99/el99-16.html   (1856 words)

  
 Business Cycle
This stage of the business cycle is known as the maturation stage.
In the revival stage of the business cycle, consumers start to feel more confident that the worst is behind them and they start to spend again.
If you knew the exact pattern of a business cycle, you would want to buy the stock when it has hit its lowest level, and sell it when it has hit its highest level (when The Dow and the SandP 500 are at their highest and are just about to come down).
www.teenvestor.com /investors/the_economy/bizcycle.htm   (1089 words)

  
 Why Business Cycle Theory Matters - Mises Institute
A business that is hit hard during a recession is not unlike a business whose building is flattened by a tornado.
Austrians see the business cycle first and foremost as occurring because of monetary decisions made by central bankers and others in policy-making capacities, as opposed to the introduction of new technologies, which is the central theme of Prescott and Kydland.
The former view—that business cycles are unavoidable natural occurrences—assumes that individuals and business firms have no way of predicting what will happen (in general) during the boom/bust cycle, or have no way to protect their assets even if they recognize the problem.
www.mises.org /fullstory.aspx?Id=1664   (1293 words)

  
 sociology - Business cycle   (Site not responding. Last check: )
The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the ups and downs seen somewhat simultaneously in most parts of an economy.
Based on Dewey's periods, the cycles' average periods are: Kondratieff 53.3 years; Kuznets 17.75 years; Juglar 8.88 years; and Kitchen an interaction of 2.96 years, 4.44 years and 3.39 years.
In the current era, most business cycle theory follows Keynes to stress the role of fluctuations of aggregate demand, including the multiplier and accelerator effects.
www.aboutsociology.com /sociology/Business_cycle   (1478 words)

  
 Business Cycle Essays
The life cycle hypothesis, however, implies that persons who want to even out their consumption over an entire life time should save more when real interest rates are low and save less when they are high.
Table 1.1 on the business cycle expansions and contractions dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research would strongly suggest, however, that business expansions are lasting longer than they used too and that economic contractions are shorter than they once were.
Seventeen of these downside reversals occurred in the midst of a business expansion and were followed by an upside reversal of at least 5.5 percent before the economy became mired down in a recession.
www.albany.edu /cer/bc/bc_essays.html   (18182 words)

  
 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - The Region - Real Business Cycles: A Legacy of Countercyclical Policies (March ...   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Business cycles have troubled market-oriented economies since the dawn of the industrial age.
In his 1992 book on business cycles, Victor Zarnowitz records that a financial crisis occurred during the contractionary phase of four out of the 15 business cycles between 1870 and 1927, and two financial crises occurred during the contractionary phase of the business cycle that began in November 1927 and ended in March 1933.
The theory suggests that policy initiatives to buffer the effects of business cycles may not be necessary; postwar business cycles are close to what we would ideally expect as a result of random fluctuations in the growth rate of business-sector productivity.
minneapolisfed.org /pubs/region/99-03/cycles.cfm   (4401 words)

  
 Business Cycle - Search Results - MSN Encarta
Business Cycle - Search Results - MSN Encarta
Business Cycle, term used by economists to designate a periodic increase and decrease in an economy’s production and employment.
- economic boom and bust: a recurrent cycle of growth, decline, recession, and recovery in the economic activity of a capitalist country
encarta.msn.com /Business_Cycle.html   (121 words)

  
 Business Trade Cycle as supplied by EagleTraders.com
Business cycles are characterized by a series of phases that are more-or-less predictable in occurrence but not necessarily in timing or intensity.
In recent times, the great debate regarding business cycles is whether government countercyclical measures now preclude the possibility of a serious depression.
Major business cycles expansions and contractions from 1919 to 1987 are presented in the appended table.
www.eagletraders.com /advice/securities/business_trade_cycle.htm   (1334 words)

  
 BUSINESS CYCLES & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE   (Site not responding. Last check: )
During the rising waves, these intermediate cycles were characterised by brevity of depressions and intensity of upswings, while for the downward waves the opposite applied with intense depressions and shorter periods of growth.
From the 56 year cycle, the connection between the Kondratieff wave and the Juglar cycle was only a general trend with no obvious periodic relationships between these two business cycles.
The business cycles of economic literature are highly variable and notoriously unpredictable.
www.davidmcminn.com /pages/bcnum56.htm   (2432 words)

  
 Business Cycle Primer - Mises Institute
What’s unusual is when the business failures and layoffs occur in a cluster, as if many normally savvy entrepreneurs, in the same interval of time, just happen to make a series of bad judgements.
But the business press, woefully uneducated in economic theory and relentlessly biased, reports it straight, as if those pushing the talk theory of the business cycle might not have a political purpose in mind.
Another theory going the rounds is that business cycles are like Clemenza’s theory of familial war from Godfather I: "This thing's gotta happen every five years or so—ten years—helps to get rid of the bad blood." And sometimes there seems to be a superficial plausibility to the idea.
www.mises.org /fullstory.asp?control=606&   (1275 words)

  
 Sound Money and the Business Cycle
This early development of Austrian business cycle theory was a direct manifestation of Mises's rejection of the concept of neutral money and "emerged as an almost incidental by-product of his exploration of the theory of banking …" (Kirzner 2001, p.
The Austrian theory of the business or trade cycle is an intricate blend of monetary theory and capital theory.
Austrian business cycle theory and the calculation argument are dependant on Austrian capital theory and the Austrian understanding of the role of time in the economic process for many of its subtleties.
www.gold-eagle.com /gold_digest_03/cochran032503.html   (3100 words)

  
 ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute  
Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, this book will give you the edge you need to stay ahead of the crowd.
This is a collection of essays representing a wide variety of economists influenced by Moore’s analysis of business cycles.
This book is informative reading for students of business and economics, especially those fascinated with the twists and turns of economic cycles.
www.businesscycle.com /about_books.php   (372 words)

  
 business-cycle
Consumers may be too intent on saving more, and businesses on reducing their debts and excess capacity, to pay much attention to a reduction of half a point here or there in the Fed Funds rate.
Japanese business investment jumped from 13% of GDP in the early 1980s to more than 19% by 1990; American business investment has jumped from 9% of GDP to 15% over the past decade.
The character of this current cycle, and the similarities it highlights between America now and Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, are enough at least to raise the possibility that America may face a recession this year—and maybe a bad one—rather than a mere pause.
spot.colorado.edu /~kaplan/econ4111/articles/business-cycle.html   (2800 words)

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