
	Where results make sense

Topic: Causal oversimplification

	World War 1 and 2 - Fallacy of the single cause
		The fallacy of the single cause, also known as joint effect or causal oversimplification, is a logical fallacy of causation that occurs when it is assumed that there is one, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.
		Often after a tragedy it is asked, "What was the cause of this?" Such language implies that there is one cause, when instead there were probably a large number of contributing factors.
		Causal oversimplification is a specific kind of false dilemma where conjoint possibilities are ignored.
	www.worldwardiary.com /history/Causal_oversimplification (213 words)

	Supplementary Reading on Types of Experiment
		Following is a brief description of the three basic types of causal experiment along with a summary of both the advantages and limits of each.
		By concentrating on a single causal factor in our selection process, we leave open the possibility that whatever difference in levels of effect we observe in our two groups may be due to other factors.
		It is not an oversimplification to say that the reliability of a prospective experiment is in direct proportion to the degree such matching is successful.
	www.indiana.edu /~koertge/X200Carey.html (1909 words)

	The Origins of Insanity
		Once we have identified the causal agent 'responsible for' the terrorist result, we have all the necessary facts in hand and this is where the rational model terminates its inquiry.
		The implication is clearly that a hard rational dependency on the 'causal' model leads to a purificationist ethic wherein the causal agencies of undesirable results are seen as something that should be identified and somehow suppressed/punished or eliminated.
		since the causal view focuses 'healing' energies on the elimination of the causal agency,...there is no research effort into an investigation of 'false positives' in the context of their more resilient 'terrain' that would shed clues on how to shift healing towards the cultivation of more resilience in the terrain.
	www.goodshare.org /insanity.htm (4480 words)

	Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations \| Full text \| Causal thinking and causal language in epidemiology: a cause by ...
		I have great sympathy with the thoughts of Lipton and Ødegaard [1] – the assessment and communication of "causal" associations is a source of continual frustration for epidemiologists.
		The authors argue that such causal statements are redundant, logically indefensible and should be avoided in favour of more detailed descriptions of the process by which such associations are established (the "story", as the authors put it).
		Lipton and Ødegaard do seem to accept this "pragmatic" role of epidemiology, as they assert that they are interested in "the ability to manipulate the world, to predict and intervene" [1] (p3), but do not feel that this is relevant to their discussion of causation in epidemiology.
	www.epi-perspectives.com /content/3/1/7 (2621 words)

	electronic Library for Social Care (eLSC) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		One major criticism of this approach is that it represents an oversimplification of causal explanation in the human sciences.
		Causality can be seen as a category which distinguishes the regularity with which night follows day (which is not a causal link) with the regularity of the behaviour of billiard balls (which is causally determined).
		Given a thorough knowledge of the speed of the white and the type of surface, and composition of the red ball (the pre-existing conditions), a clear causal chain may be established with an identifiable outcome.
	www.elsc.org.uk /socialcareresource/rpp/articles/1711999art5.htm (5872 words)

	20th WCP:
		According to this received view Analytical Philosophy is born out of a Linguistic Turn establishing the study of language as the foundation of the discipline; this primacy of language is then overthrown by the return of the study of mind as philosophia prima through a second Cognitive Turn taken in the mid-sixties.
		My contention is that this picture is a gross oversimplification and that the Cognitive Turn should better be seen as an extension of the Linguistic one.
		I will also assume without argument that this attempt is carried out along two main complementary lines of investigation: one of a 'purely philosophical kind' going from the naturalization of intentional states to the naturalization of intentional processes, and one belonging to 'speculative psychology' going in the reverse direction.
	www.bu.edu /wcp/Papers/Cogn/CognRoy.htm (3468 words)

	AG RVS - Graphical Representation
		The causal and taxonomic structure is perceived visually, and the incident facts linguistically, and these two cognitive capabilities are largely independent.
		Anecdotal experience with text-based and graphical representations of the results of causal analyses has indicated that a representation of causal information as a directed graph allows both experts and non-experts alike to interpret the results more easily, as well as to see structural features that could well be hidden in a textual representation.
		One method of factoring which has proved relatively helpful for causal graphs in particular is graph-theoretic factoring, in which graphs are separated at their places of least width and each "chunk" is rendered separately, with the cut-set nodes identified in each chunk through color.
	www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de /Bieleschweig/criteria/GraphicalRepresentation.html (793 words)

	RHE398T BLOG: Sample Paper 3 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Barry Glassner's argument in The Culture of Fear that we fear the wrong things is based on a large number of causal arguments (e.g., because the media fear-monger, we fear the wrong things; because we fear other drivers on the road, we fail to see the larger problem caused by guns; etc.).
		Toward the end of his section “Are Children Sick?” Glassner suggests that the popularity of institutionalizing children during the 80s and early 90s (prior to the advent of less-expensive pharmacotherapy, such as Ritalin) resulted in a cost to “uninsured children with severe psychiatric problems” (80).
		However, this particular argument assumes a simplistic and doubtful causal relationship between the demand of the privileged for mental healthcare and the supply to the indigent of psychiatric and psychological treatment.
	www.cwrl.utexas.edu /~robertsmiller/RHE398Tblog/archives/000100.html (1340 words)

	A Schema for Unifying Human Science
		The value and validity of the schema are illustrated by studying causal links to and from cultural phenomena.
		Un-packing also allows us to sail between the twin dangers of cultural bigotry (where one argues that one's culture is superior to an-other) and cultural relativism (where one es-chews criticism of any cultural element, even cannibalism or wife beating, in any society).
		And the sixth lesson is that the schema serves an important pedagogi-cal role: it allows instructors to cover a wide range of material and students to integrate this into a coherent whole.
	www.susqu.edu /su_press/bookjacketsinfo/SchemaUnifying.htm (478 words)

	out
		However, it is a dangerous oversimplification to discuss apparently wild observations in terms of inclusion in, or exclusion from, a more or less conventional formal analysis.
		For example, we may check a laboratory notebook and see that some procedure was poorly carried out, or we may ask the bombardier whether he remembers a particular bomb's wobbling badly in flight.
		This is perhaps the most difficult case, and the one that has given rise to various rules of thumb for rejecting observations.
	www.tufts.edu /~gdallal/out.htm (1172 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Thus, we should bear in mind that, as is often remarked, the truth or otherwise of determinism is irrelevant in these contexts, for the sheer randomness which could function to falsify the thesis of determinism could bring nothing positive or transformative to the possibilities of human agency.
		Indeed, it is this association of Compatibilism, as such, with this kind of gross underselling of the scope and significance of the concept of ‘freedom’ which is one of the central spurs towards a rejection of the Compatibilist project.
		The central idea is seen to be that, given the Causal Thesis, a lack of control over antecedent conditions at (A) leads to a lack of (fundamental) control over conditions at (B) and thereby to the rejection of the Objective Plurality Principle.
	www.people.fas.harvard.edu /~mponeill/philosophy/ResponsibilityEqualityJustice.doc (15751 words)

	Errors involving causation
		This is a related group of fallacies which either draw incorrect causal inferences from the temporal order of events or draw incorrect inferences about the order in which events occurred by applying a known causal rule to incomplete facts.
		Thus, given the causal law of gravity, it would generally be thought correct to infer that a man seen dropping a brick off a building was the cause of the observation of a brick shattering on the pavement several seconds later.
		Because this fallacy involves the inference of incorrect causal mechanisms through application of fallacious generalizations and generalizations drawn from repeated occurrences, the conclusions drawn from it are invalidated by even a single unexplained contrary occurrence.
	www.angelfire.com /ks2/fallacies/fallcaus.htm (1067 words)

	Erowid Cannabis Vault : Cannabis & Psychosis: a guide to current research about cannabis and mental health. June 2005
		The article by Fergusson et al., one of the important recent analyses suggesting a causal relationship between cannabis and psychosis, focuses on "psychotic symptoms" and reports that cannabis "may increase risks of psychosis".
		An oversimplification of this "shared cause" (also called "common vulnerabilities") model is that the genetic background and childhood histories that make people prone to schizophrenia also increase the likelihood of cannabis use.
		The two most important recent papers suggesting a causal connection between cannabis and psychotic disorders are "Prospective cohort study of cannabis use, predisposition for psychosis, and psychotic symptoms in young people" by Henquet et al.
	www.erowid.org /plants/cannabis/cannabis_health3.shtml (3728 words)

	Chapter 9 of Genre (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		In Chapter 9, Clark defines and gives examples of arguments that rely on a logical exploration of the causes and effects ("causality") or an extended definition of a problem to frame an argument for a solution.
		The basic principle of causality is simple: certain events (causes) cause other events (effects) to happen — which in turn cause other events to happen.
		There is undeniably a history in the relationship between him and his girlfriend that would cause this event to be the "last straw." To say that the breakup was due to the speeding ticket would be an oversimplification of the factors involved.
	vc.wscc.cc.tn.us /engl1010/genre_ch9.htm (382 words)

	Matthews, D. J. (2001). Summary of Rutter, M. (May 2001). Biological and Experiential Influences on Psychological ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Thus, in addition to genetic effects on mental disorders such as autism and schizophrenia, on intelligence and emotional reactivity, there are also genetic effects on individual differences in religious commitment, and the likelihood of being divorced or engaging in antisocial behaviour.
		Although considerable (and often valid) criticisms have been made of research on environmental influences on development, there are research strategies that provide the necessary controls, and studies using such strategies that demonstrate the reality of environmentally mediated risks with respect to a range of risk factors.
		First many causal processes involve multi-stage indirect chains of effects, which means that there are many points on that indirect causal pathway that provide an opportunity for intervention.
	www.acscd.ca /acscd/public/papers.nsf/0/5b7dbd4f0a74a41e85256d730008a7cf?OpenDocument (4141 words)

	McClamrock: "Methodological Individualism..."
		But what contribution is made to the phenotype is highly dependent on context -- on where the sequence is in relation to the rest of the genetic materials, and on the precise nature of the coding mechanisms which act on the sequences.
		So the causal power of a particular gene considered as that kind of DNA sequence is supervenient on just its local microstructure, but its causal power considered as that kind of gene is not.
		Identity of causal powers might still be thought of as identity of causal consequences across nomologically possible contexts.
	www.albany.edu /~ron/papers/methindi.html (4663 words)

	RedNova News - Health - Vitamin D and Calcium in the Prevention of Prostate and Colon Cancer: New Approaches for the ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		It implies a significant oversimplification of this relation and detracts from the need for development of new approaches to this area of study.
		Identification of causal relations was relatively straightforward for traditional deficiency diseases compared with the identification of causal relations for chronic diseases.
		Therefore the demonstration of causality often required large populations and sophisticated epidemiologic designs, as well as independent demonstrations of plausible mechanisms from animal and in vitro studies.
	www.rednova.com /news/display?id=136632&source=r_health (6108 words)

	Cause (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Fallacy of the single cause The fallacy of the single cause, also known as joint effect or causal oversimplification,...
		First cause First Cause is used alternately to refer to the God itself among individuals uncomfortable with the historic...
		Questionable cause Fallacies of questionable cause, also known as causal fallacies, non causa pro causa (cause is inco...
	www.brainyencyclopedia.com /topics/cause.html (373 words)

	Dispatches from the Culture Wars: Beware Oversimplification on Judicial Nominees
		Dispatches from the Culture Wars: Beware Oversimplification on Judicial Nominees
		Ed Brayton is a freelance writer and speaker.
		In the middle of the review Tim wrote the following, which in its own way is germane to the concept that raj presents above, and to the notion of truth being more important than partisan gain.
	www.scienceblogs.com /dispatches/2005/06/beware_oversimplification_on_j.php (1330 words)

	Descent of Man Revisited
		Causal explanation proceeds apace, and always prospers, but never closes the case on the mysterious organismic totality for which no methodology has yet to be invented.
		Darwinism defaults to a false picture of natural selection in history, and suggests subliminally that the immense diversity of this universal history is condemned to the conflict and competition of its fragments in the name of future development.
		We can also take our cue from postmodern critiques of 'metanarratives' by turning them on their head, by deconstructing flat history, to expose the Darwinian ideological narrative of conflict and competition as it fails to account for the facts, showing us how the descent of man is justly termed a 'narrative' of freedom.
	history-and-evolution.com /descmanrev.htm (7371 words)

	Quantum Entanglement and Causality
		In particular, quantum systems show correlations over such distances that it is very difficult to reconcile them with the picture of time painted by relativity and the picture of cause and effect with which we are all familiar from the earliest ages.
		It may be possible, in any case, to avoid the paradoxes altogether while accepting the existence of superluminal causal links, as Maudlin (1994) and others suggest, because we have no real control over the links.
		Cartwright and Chang conclude that the contiguity condition required here is probably violated in quantum mechanics; they may be correct, since various aspects of quantum mechanics seem to be incompatible with the condition – the collapse of the wave function, the supposed ‘quantum leaps’ made by electrons around atoms, and so on.
	fergusmurray.members.beeb.net /Causality.html (5152 words)

	Problems and Pitfalls in the History of Technology
		Oversimplification is the tendency to reduce complex events to too-simple terms.
		A good recent example of oversimplification was the Laffer Curve that dominated economic policy during the early Reagan presidency.
		If two events follow in sequence, and there's a plausible mechanism to account for the events, then there likely is some sort of causal connection, and the burden of proof in such a case is on the person who doubts the causal connection.
	www.uwgb.edu /DutchS/WestTech/xpitfall.htm (3474 words)

	House of Lords - Islam (A.P.) v. Secretary of State for the Home Department Regina v. Immigration Appeal Tribunal and ...
		There was no need to construct a more restricted social group simply for the purpose of satisfying the causal connection which the Convention requires.
		Once one has established the context in which a causal question is being asked, the answer involves the application of common sense notions rather than mechanical rules.
		I can think of cases in which a "but for" test would be satisfied but common sense would reject the conclusion that the persecution was for reasons of sex.
	www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk /pa/ld199899/ldjudgmt/jd990325/islam06.htm (2586 words)

	100-final (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		An investigation derived from the logico-structural theory of worldview was conducted for the purpose of examining the relationship between science interest and variations in the Causal universal within college students' worldviews.
		The content of the instrument derives from the contention that a scientifically compatible worldview must include presuppositions in the Causal universal that are appropriate to scientific explanation.
		The Causal universal is influenced by the presuppositions that form the other universals, particularly those in Classification and the NonSelf.
	www.wmich.edu /slcsp/100.html (7530 words)

	Ariadne Revisited (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		As for the associated causal factors that also provide necessary conditions of film identity, in tandem with intentional factors, clearly there is a complex and intimate connection between the actions of a director that successfully realize her intentions, and the relevant causal factors in the production process.
		My claim is that the outcome of that causal process is able to represent those film-related intentions of the director that were successfully realized by the process.
		Returning to causal factors, Smuts is skeptical even of the conceivability, let alone the actual possibility, of qualitatively identical but causally independent lengths of film, and consequently gets bogged down in irrelevant issues of replication or copying.
	www.contempaesthetics.org /pages/article.php?articleID=211 (2023 words)

	CiS-St Edmunds Lecture series - MENTAL CAUSATION - Nancey Murphy
		Mental properties can be taken to have causal efficacy insofar as they supervene on physical properties and those subvenient physical properties are causally efficacious.
		The bomb is detonated (triggered by turning the key in the ignition) and the general is killed." The terrorist's action was the structuring cause, the cause of its being the case that turning the key sets off the bomb [7].
		The important issue here is causal reductionism, the thesis that the behavior of an entity is determined by the behavior of its parts.
	www.st-edmunds.cam.ac.uk /CiS/murphy/lecture1.html (2313 words)

	Chapter 1
		The causal relation (10) could be paraphrased as "the description in S1 gives rise to the conclusion or claim formulated in the S2." Hence, in the second type of relation the discourse segments are related because of the illocutionary meaning of one or both of the segments.
		Keenan, Baillet and Brown (1984) and Myers, Shinjo and Duffy (1987) demonstrated that the effect of causal connectedness on memory for sentences is greatest for moderate levels of causality.
		Also, causally related sentences are read faster (Haberlandt and Bingham, 1978), and the reading time decreases when the causality increases (Keenan et al., 1984, Myers et al., 1987).
	www.ling.helsinki.fi /tohtkoul/langnet/sandspo.htm (8092 words)

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