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Topic: Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies

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	Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies is an extremely influential 1996 paper in energy economics by Joseph Tainter.
		This is a mirror of the negentropic tendencies of natural evolution, according to ecological economics, notably the arguments of Donella Meadows and her colleagues on the economic constraints of contemporary problem solving:
		"To circumvent costliness in problem solving it is often suggested that we use resources more intelligently and efficiently," Tainter continues, but cites Timothy Allen and Thomas Hoekstra, 1992, as claiming that "in managing ecosystems for sustainability, managers should identify what is missing from natural regulatory process and provide only that.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Complexity,_Problem_Solving,_and_Sustainable_Societies (825 words)

	Encyclopedia :: encyclopedia : Problem solving (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Duncker's "X-ray" problem; Ewert and Lambert's 1932 "disk" problem, later known as Tower of Hanoi) that appeared novel to participants (e.g.
		The researchers made the underlying assumption, of course, that simple tasks such as the Tower of Hanoi captured the main properties of "real world" problems, and that the cognitive processes underlying participants' attempts to solve simple problems were representative of the processes engaged in when solving "real world" problems.
		Instead, these researchers have frequently focused on the development of problem solving within a certain domain, that is on the development of expertise (e.g.
	www.hallencyclopedia.com /Problem_solving (779 words)

	COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996
		Complexity is generally understood to refer to such things as the size of a society, the number and distinctiveness of its parts, the variety of specialized social roles that it incorporates, the number of distinct social personalities present, and the variety of mechanisms for organizing these into a coherent, functioning whole.
		Complexity has always been inhibited by the burdens of time and energy that it imposes, and by complexity aversion (which is no doubt related to cost).
		The fate of the Roman Empire is not the unavoidable destiny of complex societies.
	dieoff.org /page134.htm (5608 words)

	Eco-evolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		However, none of these capabilities can take effect until eco-evolution begins - an effort, conscious or not, by an entity or group-entity to adjust its energy and environment tolerances to fit conditions encountered locally by their own bodies.
		Joseph Tainter, in Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies, argued famously that without identifying such basic parameters as the energy cost of finding energy, or saving it, there was no potential for evolution of this nature to begin, and thus no potential for the more intelligent types of adaptation to occur.
		Having investigated dozens of societies' path from energy glut to eventual collapse, he noted that there was no historical evidence that this could occur on such a scale as a human society, even on a relatively small and contained base of land.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Ecoevolution (344 words)

	Learn more about Energy economics in the online encyclopedia. (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		To a large degree this is simply because environmental sustainability simply involves redefining "efficiency" to emphasize sustainability instead of output per person.
		If the trajectory of problem solving that humanity has followed for much of the last 12,000 years should continue, it is the path that we are likely to take in the near future." [2] This current default path leads to human extinction via what ecologists call Easter Island Syndrome.
		The energy loss of this trial-and-error problem solving in nature is extreme - species emerge, blunder around, destroy entire ecosystems, die off, and are replaced - millions of years of this may lead to few or no improvements in the energy efficiency of a life form.
	www.onlineencyclopedia.org /e/en/energy_economics.html (1536 words)

	REQUIEM
		Our civilization is dying from "system"[1] problems; problems such as the population explosion, natural resource depletion, and war.
		But systems science tells us that activists can not solve[5] complex system[6] problems in their communities because complex systems are counterintuitive;[7] complex systems behave in many ways quite the opposite of the simple systems from which we have gained our personal experience.
		The ability to solve problems implies that "rational" thinking is carefully weighing the important, known variables and making that decision which is most likely to achieve the solution.
	www.sbs.utexas.edu /resource/dieofforg (6959 words)

	News for a Synergic Earth :
		Diminishing returns to complexity in problem solving limited the abilities of earlier societies to respond sustainably to challenges, and will shape contemporary responses to global change.
		In our quest to understand sustainability we have rushed to comprehend such factors as energy transformations, biophysical constraints, and environmental deterioration, as well as the human characteristics that drive production and consumption, and the assumptions of neoclassical economics.
		One problem reminded Bradin of the processes he used when he had to make giant batches of chemicals; a solution occurred to him right away.
	www.synearth.net /2004/04/23.html (1859 words)

	Thesis #13: Civilization always pursues complexity. (The Anthropik Network) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Complexity is a function of energy, and our current level of complexity is supported by a fossil fuel subsidy.
		This makes a society desperate, as this principle takes over: "No country is more than three meals away from a revolution." The inability of the state to deliver the basic needs of the population results in the swift end of the state.
		Administrative complexity will be insufficient to cover anything more than what we'd now consider a small town, and the logistics of military campaigns in such an environment will cap the size of these city-states to no more than, say, a week's walk in any direction.
	anthropik.com /2005/10/thesis-13-civilization-always-pursues-complexity (15721 words)

	Key Resources \| Instruments for Change \| IISDnet
		Achieving sustainable development requires that we conceive of the economy as part of the ecosystem and, as a result, give up on the ideal of economic growth.
		The author details the problems that are involved in forecasting population noting the limitations of present methods.
		Furthermore, various sustainable development indicators, environmental economic indicators, social indicators and the limited value of economic criteria such as GNP are discussed.
	www.iisd.org /susprod/keyresources.htm (5498 words)

	Drivers In For A Shock \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News Clearinghouse (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		His theme is that past complex societies have collapsed essentially as a result of the decreasing rates of return on investment in increased levels of (energy and resource consuming) complexity in society.
		He postulates that once the point of initial high returns from increased complexity is well passed any society or empire becomes increasingly susceptible to collapse as increasing amounts of scarce and limited resources have to be devoted to obtaining less, and eventually negative, marginal benefit at ever increasing costs.
		Here he addresses the problem of how aversion to historical knowledge leads policy makers to look for the causes of events only in the recent past and thus the opportunity to understand the long term reasons for current problems is lost.
	www.energybulletin.net /12040.html (1608 words)

	Russia's plight: A cautionary tale about the need to relocalize \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News Clearinghouse (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Perhaps if Joseph Tainter, author of The Collapse of Complex Societies, had published his book today instead of in 1988, he might not have had to reach back so far in history for an example of a complex society in collapse.
		Whatever one believes were the causes of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the complex economic and political arrangements of the Soviet block were becoming increasingly untenable given shifting realities.
		One of Tainter's contentions is that when a complex system doesn't meet the needs of the people it governs, they may seek to break off from that system, i.e., govern themselves under conditions of lower complexity.
	www.energybulletin.net /17585.html (1092 words)

	(DV) Baldwin: The Twilight of Capitalism
		He instead shows that the problem is not with markets as a vehicle for the exchange of goods and services to meet human needs but, more specifically, with capitalism as the means of organizing those markets.
		It is intriguing when a family farmer, an ecologist, and a former economic development consultant can all approach this question from their own distinct angles and come to strikingly similar conclusions on what the broad outlines of such a reorganization would look like.
		This is her second article in a series on democracy, sustainability and economic localization.
	www.dissidentvoice.org /Apr06/Baldwin24.htm (2744 words)

	Safe Haven \| Preservation of Capital \|
		Historical knowledge is essential to sustainability (Tainter 1995a).
		Complexity is a key concept of this essay.
		More complex societies are costlier to maintain than simpler ones and require higher support levels per capita.
	www.safehaven.com /forums-14571.htm (1884 words)

	Resource Insights
		This is the problem of induction with a twist.
		Even if prices somewhat lower than those already seen this year were sustained, an array of existing but not yet widely applied technologies would make it economically feasible to extract oil from tar sands or shale, or to convert coal to liquid fuel.
		Another problem with the tar sands and other nonconventional oil sources is that their energy return is poor.
	www.resourceinsights.blogspot.com (6670 words)

	Thesis #29: It will be impossible to rebuild civilization. (The Anthropik Network) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		To be sure, there are instances where one sector of a society grows at the expense of others, but to be maintained as a cohesive whole, a social system can tolerate only certain limits to such conditions.
		Thus, it is possible to speak of sociocultural evolution by the encompassing term 'complexity,' meaning by this the interlinked growth of the several subsystems that comprise a society.
		While it is true that our complexity has passed the point of diminishing returns (see thesis #15), and we are dealing with the cost of that, we have not yet shown many signs of a maintenance crisis.
	anthropik.com /2006/01/thesis-29-it-will-be-impossible-to-rebuild-civilization (16501 words)

	[No title]
		Establish a "sustainable OKC" department, whose employees would be trained to help local residents implement grey water recycling, insulate and weatherize their homes, install solar hot water and air heaters, start gardens, do backyard aquaculture.
		The real problem with the Crosstown IS the deck - which gets lots of holes punched in it by hordes of heavy trucks operating at weights which no portion of the interstate highway system was ever designed to bear.
		The "chief problem" claimed by the proponents of replacing it is the claimed "lack of traffic volume capacity." In fact, simply taking through trucks off the Crosstown using existing bypass capacity would significantly reduce the current volume as well as tremendous wear and tear on the bridge portions of the structure.
	lists.oksustainability.org /pipermail/ok-sus/2002-January.txt (6030 words)

	Descent into Hell
		Input is whatever is used to maintain or raise the level of organizational complexity needed at any given point in a society's history. Output is the benefit which the supporting population gets from this complexity.
		Human societies are not disorganized swarms of people who just happen to live together; they are problem-solving organizations differentiated vertically and horizontally by function and level of control, in the manner of all living systems.
		The growth in problem-solving complexity often enters the range of diminishing marginal returns, which happens when the benefits of complexity barely or no longer exceed its costs. In the vernacular: things cost too much.
	www.harbornet.com /folks/theedrich/hive/Hell.htm (1944 words)

	Oilcrash.com: Why the Human Population of Earth Will Die Off
		In modern society, economic growth serves as a proxy for increasing fitness.
		Societies can remain reasonably stable as long as their economies continue to grow — continue to serve inclusive fitness for the majority.
		There are absolutely no humane solutions available to the ruling elite because it is impossible to solve the problem of human corruption (i.e.
	www.oilcrash.com /articles/hansn_01.htm (905 words)

	Combustion in the RainForest: Ecology, Energy and Economy for a Sustainable Environment
		"Complexity, Problem Solving and Sustainable Societies" by Joseph A. Tainter
		Sustainability and the Global Economy: beyond Bretton Woods
		Complexity and Thermodynamics: Towards a New Ecology
	www.combusem.com /REFER.HTM (1627 words)

	population
		COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996 from GETTING DOWN TO EARTH: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, Island Press, 1996; ISBN 1-55963-503-7 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/ OVERVIEW..
		Carrying capacity is exceeded if so many individuals use an area that their activities cause deterioration in the very systems that support them.
		Current World Population Everyone who has reached my level of late youth and has spent his time watching people and listening to them is bound to have becomd cynical.
	www.fortunecity.de /lindenpark/beuys/171/linkpopu.html (1462 words)

	Skeptacles: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management
		I suppose it's possible, and I have been puzzled and concerned over the lack of coverage this issue receives in US press.
		Here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent research company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe.
		Yet, half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to be found.
	skeptacles.blogspot.com /2005/07/peaking-of-world-oil-production.html (365 words)

	Visions and Analysis (Greenest Before Dawn)
		Japan's Sustainable Society in the Edo Period (1603-1867) Part 1 / Part 2
		E.F. Schumacher Society / online publications (variety of authors including Kirkpatrick Sale, Hazel Henderson and John Todd).
		Sustainable Development Virtual Library Huge list of links.
	www.cwo.com /~bart/visions.htm (748 words)

	Sustainable Agriculture (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		The purpose of this webpage is to provide veterinarians, veterinary students, livestock producers and consumers links to materials on the complex and inter-related issues impacting agricultural resilience, sustainability and food security.
		Sustaining Water: Population and the Future of Renewable Water Supplies
		Energy in Agriculture and Society: Insights from the Sunshine Farm (2001, Marty Bender, html)
	courses.vetmed.wsu.edu /courses-jmgay/SustainableAg.htm (4948 words)

	sci.nanotech archives: Re: NET ENERGY (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		All the collapsing societies in the above two studies
		Okay, but how does that statement eliminate solar energy from solving our energy problem?
		Orbital Solar Power Sattelites (completely doable right now -- no new technology required) could provide energy in the 5 to 10 cents per kilowatt hour range, according to numerous NASA studies going back to the seventies.
	www.pa.msu.edu /people/mulhall/mist/page/4905.html (657 words)

	Links and Resources
		Sustainable ABC - educational resource and book store
		The Chemical Industry Association- it is worth looking at to see how the industry is defending a product, rather than looking at how to make the service it provides in a sustainable fashion
		Using Envisioning to Design a Sustainable and Desirable World in the Presence of Irreducible Uncertainty (pdf)
	www.holocene.net /sustainability/links.htm (710 words)

	Ecology (Greenest Before Dawn)
		Complex Adaptive Systems, Evolutionism, and Ecology within Anthropology: Interdisciplinary Research for Understanding Cultural and Ecological Dynamics (PDF) -- good.
		From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds / PDF / essay about
		Methods and Metaphors in Community Ecology: The Problem of Defining Stability (PDF)
	www.cwo.com /~bart/ecology.htm (329 words)

	Buzzzzzzzzzzzz
		Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996;...
		Let's suppose that the supply really is quite limited...
		Problems surrounding oil shortage can be solved using other...
	members.fortunecity.com /rlhieger/id680.htm (361 words)

	RMRS Research Themes...Human Dimensions
		Policy management decisions require an understanding of the best available scientific information including a thorough understanding of the human dimensions of the problem.
		Human dimensions research explores concepts of fairness, risk, biodiversity, and sustainability.
		cultural heritage, which seeks to understand the characteristics of sustainable societies, the human role in development of North American ecosystems, and the sources of cultural land-use conflicts.
	www.fs.fed.us /rm/main/themes/human.html (411 words)

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