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# Topic: Confidence region

###### In the News (Wed 5 Mar 14)

 Rectilinear convex region This probability is the confidence of the rule, and the ratio of the number of tuple inside the range [s,t] is the support of the rule. The ideal optimized confidence region for this dataset is the region surrounded by two lines parallel to the diagonal. The test confidence of rectilinear regions is the highest among the three classes of regions. www.research.ibm.com /trl/projects/s7800/DBmining/num2d/rc.htm   (2283 words)

 Modelling and visualizing uncertainties in multi-data-based spatial analysis   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) The confidence region of a line segment is used to determine the fuzzy boundary region and -- in an inverse process -- the interior region of an area object. The confidence region of the whole boundary is the union of the confidence regions of the N line segments. The fuzzy boundary region of the area object is defined as the confidence region of the boundary line features, and the interior region of the area object is defined as the area which is obtained by subtracting the fuzzy boundary region from the total area of the object. libraries.maine.edu /Spatial/gisweb/spatdb/egis/eg94051.html   (2732 words)

 Parametric Curves: Confidence Ellipses One is a confidence ellipse for the population mean, and the other is a confidence ellipse for prediction. A confidence ellipse for prediction is a confidence region for predicting a new observation in the population. A confidence ellipse for the population mean is displayed with dashed lines, and a confidence ellipse for prediction is displayed with dotted lines. www.asu.edu /sas/sasdoc/sashtml/insight/chap39/sect40.htm   (342 words)

 Multiparameter errors is set to the appropriate one-standard-deviation value, then the precise meaning of the confidence region of figure 7.2 is: ``The probability that the true value of parameter one lies between A and B is 68.3%'' (the probability of a normally-distributed parameter lying within one std.-dev. Some regions inside the hyperrectangle (namely the corners) have low likelihoods, lower than some regions just outside the rectangle, so the hyperrectangle is not the optimal shape (does not contain the most likely points). For our two-parameter example, such a confidence region would be the grey region in figure 7.4, and the corresponding probability statement is: ``The probability that parameter one and parameter two simultaneously take on values within the one-standard-deviation likelihood contour is 39.3%''. wwwasdoc.web.cern.ch /wwwasdoc/minuit/node33.html   (969 words)

 X-monotone region Suppose that the optimized region of interest is the red point that is hidden inside of the upper convex hull (light blue lines) of all stamp points. Consider the case of computing the optimized confidence region for a given minimum support threshold that is illustrated by the green line in the picture. The next problem is to compute the optimized support region for a given minimum confidence threshold that is illustrated by the green line in the picture. www.research.ibm.com /trl/projects/s7800/DBmining/num2d/xmono.htm   (1637 words)

 3.2 The sources of strong nonlinearity To understand the problem we are discussing in rigorous mathematical terms, it is important to distinguish between two phenomena occurring in the computation of the prediction confidence region and its approximations. What is needed is a way to describe a better approximation to the nonlinear confidence region, to be used in the cases where the covariance matrix is already badly conditioned at the epoch of the initial orbit determination. The difficulty in doing this is that the confidence ellipsoid in the X space is a 6-dimensional region, and to sample it in an uniform way requires an enormous number of points, most of which would end up in predictions very close to each other when mapped into the 2-dimensional space of the observations Y. copernico.dm.unipi.it /~milani/ident1/node11.html   (703 words)

 Case 2: Confidence Limits of Unconstrained Parameter in Presence of Constrained Nuisance Parameters   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) When a constrained nuisance parameter is in the region of a constraint boundary, the confidence limits of a model parameter are affected even when the parameter is itself unconstrained. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine possible effects of a constrained nuisance parameter in the region of a constraint boundary on the size of the confidence limits of an unconstrained parameter of interest. The abscissa represents the true value of the constrained nuisance parameter, and the ordinate represents the observed size of the distribution of confidence intervals for the parameter of interest, that is, the proportion of intervals that fail to contain zero, the true value of the parameter of interest. faculty.washington.edu /rons/wlb/node7.html   (396 words)

 5.5.3.1.2. Single response: Confidence region for search path Note that the inequality equation and the "goodness measure" equation are valid when operating conditions are given in coded units. The fraction of directions excluded by a 95% confidence cone in the direction of steepest ascent is: In this example, with high confidence, the true steepest ascent direction is within this cone of 29% of possible directions. www.itl.nist.gov /div898/handbook/pri/section5/pri5312.htm   (611 words)

 Profile likelihood The confidence region defined above becomes difficult to handle or to communicate in case of multi-parameter models. In the section on likelihood based confidence region we used the tangent parabola, rather than the likelihood ratio itself. The confidence region is based on large samples. www.bio.vu.nl /thb/course/tb/tb/node92.html   (282 words)

 NATO/SFOR: UN Secretary General S/1997/487 With the encouragement of UNTAES, the HDZ and SDSS negotiated a power-sharing arrangement throughout the region and an agreement on the use of symbols and flags which enabled all regional, municipal and town councils to be duly constituted by 6 June. Although oral guarantees to appoint two Serbs from the region to the Croatian House of Counties were not fulfilled, a compromise was reached whereby an additional Serb from the Baranja is to be appointed as Assistant Minister for Culture in the Ministry of Education and Culture. This provides important reassurance to the residents of the region who, in the absence of a bilateral agreement on "soft borders", are deeply apprehensive that they will be prevented arbitrarily from leaving the region or visiting their families in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia when Croatian authority is completely restored. www.nato.int /ifor/un/u970623a.htm   (6656 words)

 Confidence The confidence contour is the locus of (L, S) pairs expected to encompass the true (L, S) in 95% of similar experiments. The idea is to select plausible values (values within a 95% confidence region) for which the cracksize at 90% POD is as large as possible, such that any further increase would require parameter estimates no longer supported by the data, according to some criterion. Simultaneous confidence intervals for multiple parameters also often rely on Normal theory methods due to the computational simplification afforded by the asymptotic behavior of the likelihood function (e.g.: McCallagh and Nelder, 1989). www.statisticalengineering.com /glm5.htm   (349 words)

 9619705E This precarious financial base for administering the Region, together with the presence of significant numbers of demobilized and unemployed ex-combatants, is undercutting the public confidence in UNTAES that had been created in the early months of the Mission. Efforts to reach agreement on utilizing revenues from the Djeletovci oil field for administering the region have stalled, the Government maintaining that INA (the Croatian national oil company) does not have resources to make regular monthly payments and that profits from the oil fields would not be generated for two to three months. 14 above) in the Region is predicated upon the prior accomplishment of difficult tasks such as the establishment of an appropriate legal framework, determination of criteria for eligibility of candidates and voters, definition of the boundaries of municipalities, districts and counties and logistical preparations. www.un.org /docs/s1996622.htm   (3097 words)

 Constrained Maximum Likelihood In practice, our finite samples may not be large enough for confidence regions to avoid constraint boundaries, and this has implications for all parameters in models with inequality constraints, even for those that are not themselves constrained. Confidence intervals computed by inverting the likelihood ratio statistic are also called profile likelihood confidence intervals. Thus, in circumstances to be described, the statistics used in the inversion of the Wald or likelihood ratio statistics are modified when the confidence region is within a specified distance of a constraint boundary. faculty.washington.edu /rons/cmlinf/cmlinf.html   (454 words)

 [No title]   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) The axes of the linearized confidence ellipsoid are analyzed to determine the difference in orientation of the confidence regions for the two data sets. The use of confidence regions can be extended to predict the value of the second data set in reducing the uncertainty of parameter estimates, before the data are collected. The conventional method based on the analysis of data residuals is compared to three other methods; with the weights selected to maximize parameter stability, to minimize the volume of the confidence region, or to minimize the longest axis of the confidence region. www.agu.org /pubs/abs/wr/97WR03467/tmp.html   (282 words)

 [No title]   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) Computation of the probability that an entire boundary estimate lies within the confidence region is a challenging problem, because the estimate is a multi-dimensional non-stationary random process. The same bounds also apply to confidence regions formed around the estimated boundaries, lower bounding the probability that the entire true boundary lies within the confidence region. These global confidence regions conveniently display the uncertainty in various geometric parameters such as shape, size, orientation, and position of the estimated object, and facilitate geometric inferences. www.ifp.uiuc.edu /~krongold/DSPseminars/jong.nov23   (190 words)

 3 Results   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) (4) to estimate confidence intervals for the parameters. The confidence interval for the inclination was assumed to be half of the step used in the parameter sampling, but it is likely to be even smaller because the inclination is constant for all the solutions with The solutions within the confidence regions differ only for the values of the luminosity ratio and the radius of the components. aanda.u-strasbg.fr:2002 /papers/aa/full/2001/19/aa1009/node3.html   (1274 words)

 Inman News   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) The Rocky Mountain region has scored the biggest gains in consumer confidence over the last year, according to an analysis released today by The Conference Board. The Conference Board's widely watched consumer confidence index for this region has climbed from 68.8 to 103.4 over the last year (from February 2003 to February 2004). Although consumer confidence advanced over the last year, the gains have been the smallest of all nine U.S. regions. www.inman.com /inf/greenpointmortgage/story.asp?ID=40337   (367 words)

 Synthesis Report - Question 8   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) Water is likely to be a key issue (high confidence) due to projected drying trends over much of the region and change to a more El Niño-like event state. In the year 1990, approximately one-third of the world's population lived in countries using more than 20% of their water resources, and by the year 2025 about 60% of a larger total would be living in such a stressed country, only because of population growth. There has been a gradual shift from "supply-side" approaches (i.e., providing water to satisfy demands by increased capacity reservoirs or structural flood defenses) towards "demand-side" approaches (i.e., trimming demands adequately to match water availability, using water more efficiently, and non-structural means of preparedness to floods and droughts). www.grida.no /climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/063.htm   (856 words)

 5.5.5.1.2. Single response: Confidence region for search path Technical Appendix 5B: Computing a Confidence Cone on the Direction of Steepest Ascent. The fraction of directions excluded by a 95 % confidence cone in the direction of steepest ascent is: Thus 71.05 % of the possible directions from the current operating point are excluded with 95% confidence. www.itl.nist.gov /div898/handbook/pri/section5/pri5512.htm   (571 words)

 Statistical Reliability: Class No. 12 Confidence regions are the smallest area posterior credibility regions when the prior is flat Confidence interval of the hazard rate obtained by taking reciprocals in the confidence interval for the mean Dependency of the exact confidence interval on the stopping rule of the life test make this result less convincing than it could be. web.utk.edu /~leon/rel/class/class96/class12.html   (481 words)

 CDF Confidence Band   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) The critical values given by Feller (1948) for the completely specified hypothesized distribution are used to generate the confidence band. The null hypothesis that the population distribution is equal to a given completely specified distribution is rejected if the hypothesized distribution falls outside the confidence band at any point. Figure 38.28 displays an empirical distribution function and a 95% confidence band for the cumulative distribution function. www.asu.edu /it/fyi/dst/helpdocs/statistics/sas/sasdoc/sashtml/insight/chap38/sect26.htm   (124 words)

 Likelihood and confidence limits Here are the profiles with respect to r and d, with the 95% confidence limits in solid lines and the 99% confidence limits in dashed lines: critical values are in blue, confidence limits in red. As promised, the 99% confidence intervals are larger than the 95% confidence intervals, although not by too much. The real region is a bit skewed-it includes more points where d and r are both larger than the maximum likelihood estimate, and fewer where both are smaller-while the approximate ellipse is symmetric around the max. www.zoo.ufl.edu /bolker/emd-2000/lect15.html   (1739 words)

 Conservative confidence regions in multivariate calibration, Thomas Mathew, Wenxing Zha Computational aspects of the confidence region and its practical implementation are discussed. The examples show that our confidence regions are much more satisfactory compared to those based on some of the existing procedures. Furthermore, simulation results for the examples reveal that the coverage probability of the conservative confidence regions are very close to the assumed confidence level. projecteuclid.org /Dienst/UI/1.0/Summarize/euclid.aos/1032894461   (189 words)

 Likelihood Ratio Confidence Bounds A third method for calculating confidence bounds is the likelihood ratio bounds (LRB) method. This region can be represented graphically as a contour plot, an example of which is given in the following graphic. The region of the contour plot essentially represents a cross-section of the likelihood function surface that satisfies the conditions of Eqn. www.weibull.com /LifeDataWeb/likelihood_ratio_confidence_bounds.htm   (505 words)

 Newsroom | Global Press Releases   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) Consumer confidence in the island recovered to an optimistic 65.3 from the deeply pessimistic score of 23.9 for the last half of 2003. Taiwan's latest consumer confidence score of 65.7 represents a strong rebound from the deep pessimism during the second half of 2003 when it registered a score of 26.5. The forecasting is done twice a year, in June and December, to provide powerful predictive market intelligence that is highly relevant not only to wholesale and retail industries, but to sectors such as entertainment, food and beverage, the hospitality and leisure industry, as well as consumer goods manufacturing. www.mastercardintl.com /cgi-bin/newsroom.cgi?id=814   (1629 words)

 Consumer Confidence Scores Biggest Year-to-Year Rise in Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi It would not be surprising if this region becomes one of the first to catch fire now that the economy, and even the job market, is starting to boom. In the Pacific region, consumer confidence increased from 69.7 to 95.5 over the last year. Consumer confidence also improved markedly in the West North Central, South Atlantic and Mountain regions, with each region marking gains of over 20 points in the last year. www.prnewswire.com /cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-13-2004/0002109301&EDATE=   (421 words)

 Bloomberg.com: Europe The Ifo institute said yesterday economic confidence in the region fell this quarter and the European Commission last week cut its first-quarter growth forecast to 0.4 percent from last month's 0.5 percent. Confidence among executives in Germany and across the euro region may also be helped by reports of rising earnings and sales. U.S. consumer confidence fell in February from a six-month high, reflecting a decline in expectations for the world's largest economy for the next half year. www.bloomberg.com /apps/news?pid=10000085&refer=europe&sid=aKJ0S3Uxbt70   (769 words)

 [No title]   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) If existing variables are supplied as arguments the confidence region is calculated for the joint distribution of the variable means. ^level^ specifies the confidence level, in percent, for calculation of the confidence region; see help @level@. However, -ellip- was written to provide joint conf region for 2 parameters in a regression framework and requires a prior regression fit. www.fhcrc.org /science/labs/pepe/book/prg/bvnellip.hlp   (444 words)

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