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Topic: Confirmation bias


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  Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Confirmation bias is a type of statistical bias describing the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
In inductive inference, confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Confirmation_bias   (603 words)

  
 Info and facts on 'Confirmation bias'   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
In statistical inference (additional info and facts about statistical inference), confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias (additional info and facts about cognitive bias) toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study.
In psychology (The science of mental life), confirmation bias is a phenomenon whereby in a variety of settings decision makers have been shown to notice more, assign more weight to, and actively seek out evidence that confirms their claims, while tending to ignore and not seek out evidence that might discount their claims.
Some have argued that confirmation bias may be the cause of self-perpetuating and self-fulfilling (additional info and facts about self-fulfilling) social beliefs.
www.absoluteastronomy.com /encyclopedia/c/co/confirmation_bias.htm   (585 words)

  
 Encyclopedia: Confirmation bias
Cognitive bias is any of a wide range of observer effects identified in cognitive science and social psychology including very basic statistical, social attribution, and memory errors that are common to all human beings.
Disconfirmation bias refers to the tendency for people to extend critical scrutiny to information which contradicts their prior beliefs and accept uncritically information that is congruent with their prior beliefs.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweight evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.
www.nationmaster.com /encyclopedia/Confirmation-bias   (1014 words)

  
 Bias (statistics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In statistics, the term bias is used for two different concepts.
This kind of bias is usually regarded as a worse problem than statistical noise: Problems with statistical noise can be lessened by enlarging the sample, but a biased sample will not go away that easily.
Another kind of bias in statistics does not involve biased samples, but does involve the use of a statistic whose average value differs from the value of the quantity being estimated.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bias_(statistics)   (804 words)

  
 Hacknot - Testing and Card Tricks
Confirmation bias is also one of the many perceptual and cognitive traits that magicians exploit when creating an illusion.
Confirmation Bias - When analyzing the four cards presented to you at the end of the trick, it is confirmation bias that prevents you from challenging your fundamental assumptions.
Confirmation bias manifests as the tendency to confirm this mental model and to ignore or avoid evidence which might confute it.
www.hacknot.info /hacknot/action/showEntry?eid=65   (1282 words)

  
 confirmation bias
Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.
Researchers are sometimes guilty of confirmation bias by setting up experiments or framing their data in ways that will tend to confirm their hypotheses.
For examples of confirmation bias in action, see "alternative" health practice, curse, ESP, intuitive, lunar effect, personology, plant perception, the Sokal hoax, therapeutic touch, and thought field therapy.
skepdic.com /confirmbias.html   (719 words)

  
 Cues in Films with Surprise Endings
The confirmation bias is when someone has a particular theory on their mind and something occurs that may disprove their theory but they stick with their original thought (McMillan & White, 1993).
Hindsight bias is when someone misses something and has their own prediction on the outcome of an event, but when their prediction is proved wrong, the person will go on to say they knew what was really going to happen all along even though they really know they had no idea (Williams, Et Al, 1993).
Although belief perseverance and confirmation bias can explain why a cue is missed, the researcher came to the conclusion that they aren't the reason why cues are missed.
people.wcsu.edu /mccarneyh/acad/Fink.html   (4380 words)

  
 AGBIOVIEW: Risk Assessment and Confirmation Bias   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
Evidence exists virtually everywhere that we are dealing with a form of confirmation bias, such as the insistence on the authoritativeness of Losey's Monarch larvae experiments or Pusztai's rat studies, or the tryptophan case, or deductions based upon the imputed motives of corporations or scientists, or the unsullied purity of agricultural practices in developing countries.
These slender scraps are sufficiently fact-like' and abundant that a confirmation bias will almost necessarily result in confirming the existence of risks which have been subjectively identified and assessed.
If this confirmation bias is to be overcome, it appears necessary to focus those against biotechnology on what is relevant to an objective risk assessment based on scientific reasoning, although it is not clear how this might be accomplished in practice.
www.biotech-info.net /confirmation_bias.html   (1571 words)

  
 Fool.com: Beware Confirmation Bias [Commentary] November 30, 2004
"Confirmation bias" is an extraordinarily boring term that describes a pernicious attitude among many people: to discount information that is contrary to their opinions and to favor information that reinforces them.
Confirmation bias is the investing equivalent of a full house in poker -- you've got a great hand and you're convinced that you're going to win.
Confirmation bias is the human tendency to focus on news that confirms our biases, and ignore or reject any information that puts it into question.
fool.com /news/commentary/2004/commentary04113005.htm?source=mppromo   (1496 words)

  
 What Are Your Biases and Heuristics
Confirmation bias (sometimes referred to as overconfidence bias) revolves around people's fondness for evidence that confirms rather than challenges their current beliefs.
One of the problems with the confirmation bias is that people become so dogmatic and rigid in their viewpoint that they aren't open to competing explanations or to adapting their position in light of new facts or interpretations.
One method of combating confirmation bias is to actively elicit all the disconfirming evidence for a particular position.
www.webpronews.com /enterprise/marketing/wpn-16-20040202WhatAreYourBiasesandHeuristics.html   (1345 words)

  
 Evidence and Inference   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
Confirmation bias applies specifically two what we do when we go to test hypotheses.
But confirmation bias applies even when we are indifferent with regard to the truth or falsity of the hypothesis.
Answer: confirmation bias applies to what we do when we go to test a hypothesis, whereas the availability error is an error we make in forming beliefs -- in other words, when we are just forming hypotheses.
members.aol.com /introphil/confirmationbias.html   (938 words)

  
 Philosoraptor
Confirmation bias per se is, as I understand it, our tendency to conclude that whatever hypothesis is under consideration has been confirmed.
Confirmation bias affects us even when we don't give a tinker's damn about the hypothesis and have no antecedent opinion about whether it is true or false.
Confirmation bias often works together with these other cognitive biases, of course...and this (undoubtedly) often happens when we are thinking about politics and other emotionally-charged issues.
philosoraptor.blogspot.com /2004/06/politics-and-cognitive-science-1-i.html   (361 words)

  
 Vagueness, The Forer Effect, & Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the human tendency to look for and recognize only evidence that confirms our own views and to ignore and misinterpret evidence that conflicts with those views.
The second way that confirmation bias can affect how accurate and valid a personality profile seems comes from the individual's preconceived notions about the legitimacy or illegitimacy of astrology (or fortune telling or psychics or graphology or psychological testing).
So when taken altogether, the vagueness and generality of the descriptions used in the profiles provided by astrology, the Forer effect, and confirmation bias have a tendency to make the generic descriptions (especially the positive ones) seem as though they accurately and specifically describe the individual person for whom it was supposedly generated.
www.jaarondaniel.com /Teaching/forer.htm   (2177 words)

  
 Print Message   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
One is 'hindsight bias', where people seem to be convinced they knew exactly what was coming and the right thing to do well in advance of events unfolding, when in fact they did not at all.
A second bias that could be at work here is 'confirmation bias', where peiople make up their own mind on an issue and then look selectively for confimation from an outside source.
I don't believe the Bob had anything to do with it beyond confirmation of your intentions (confirmation bias), and my guess is that your recollection of events is somewhat tainted by hindsight bias.
www.suite101.com /print_message.cfm/investing/98402/896309   (334 words)

  
 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Accounting Association   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
Prior research documents that accounting professionals are subject to confirmation bias in both information search and information evaluation, where confirmation bias is defined as over (under) weighting information that supports (refutes) the conclusion advocated by the professional.
We investigate the effects of confirmation bias underlying staff-level research on supervisorsÂ’ initial assessments and recommendations made during the review process.
Specifically, we find that supervisors are not unduly influenced by confirmation bias introduced during staff-level research when the bias is against the clientÂ’s-preferred position.
aaahq.org /am2003/abstract.cfm?submissionID=1137   (210 words)

  
 Article Summary - Greenwald et al. (1986) and comments   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
CONFIRMATION BIAS pervades research in the social sciences, the authors claim.
Confirmation bias is when a researcher emphasizes findings he or she agrees with, and de-emphasizes findings he or she does not agree with.
Confirmation bias may not be as hard to overcome as GPL&B argue anyway, new studies show.
www.gsia.cmu.edu /afs/andrew/gsia/mf4f-work/rm/html/greenwald.html   (563 words)

  
 :: ak13 :: I am right
Peter Wason, who coined the phrase 'confirmation bias', conducted an experiment, published in 1960, that illustrates how susceptible people are to this approach.
Confirmation bias is rife in the world of politics, all the way from the top to the bottom.
How information slots into place depends on the hypotheses that you use to understand the world, and confirmation bias is one of the main mechanisms of this process.
www.ak13.com /article.php?id=221   (1046 words)

  
 Features of Empirical Data   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
The confirmation bias is the intuitive decision making process that sorts though a body of data and selects those that most confirm to what is already believed, and ignores or rationalizes away those that do not.
The confirmation bias occurs in illusions stemming from...
The key difference between selection and observation bias is whether the theory of observation selection effects is necessary to model the bias.
cs.wwc.edu /~aabyan/Logic/Book/book/node62.html   (322 words)

  
 [No title]
Confirmation Bias: The tendency to selectively search for and gather evidence that is consistent with one's preconceptions, prior beliefs, and expectations.
Representativeness Bias: A cognitive strategy for quickly estimating the probability that a given instance is a member of a particular category.
The Availability Bias: A cognitive strategy for quickly estimating the frequency, incidence, or probability of a given event based on the ease with which instances are retrieved from memory.
darkwing.uoregon.edu /~harrow/psy330/OFStudyGuide.htm   (1220 words)

  
 Schick and Vaughn Chapter 6
Confirmation Bias: looking for confirming evidence, and failing to look for disconfirming evidence.
We should be particularly careful about confirmation bias when the claim being “confirmed” is vague.
Vagueness and confirmation bias combine to form especially potent and psychologically compelling effects: the “weasel” claim that can accommodate numerous interpretations, or, even worse, the claim compatible with all states of affairs.
instruct.westvalley.edu /lafave/SV_CH6.HTM   (918 words)

  
 Defusing The Fury Over Gibson's 'Passion'
The screening was a study in confirmation bias.
He was sure even before the trial began, and he recalled evidence selectively to reinforce this belief: confirmation bias.
The best way to control confirmation bias is to talk with people who disagree with you.
www.rense.com /general40/defuse.htm   (1435 words)

  
 Hellblazer: Why Smart People Believe Weird Stupid Things   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
I'm still subject to the bias and it's a constant struggle to remain skeptical, questioning and open to new facts that contradict what I believe.
Lawyers deliberately employ a type of confirmation bias in the confrontational style of reasoning used in the courtroom by purposefully selecting evidence that best suits their client and ignoring contradictory evidence - the winning of the case trumps the truth or falsity of the claim.
The term "confirmation bias" seems to imply that people are at least fooling themselves into believing that they have an open mind.
www.hellblazer.com /archives/2004/06/why_smart_peopl.html   (1498 words)

  
 Agoraphilia   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
In an effort to prevent fraud on your account, this letter is to confirm the change is valid.
I think it confirms that there are seriously stupid people making decisions at Wells Fargo Card Services.
So even if this had been a sensible confirmation system, they didn't leave enough time for it to work.
agoraphilia.blogspot.com /2005/08/negative-confirmation-bias.html   (1156 words)

  
 Pharmacy Times: Drug-Name Similarities and Dispensing Errors
Confirmation bias means that you are more likely to believe information that supports your view rather than information that does not.
Confirmation bias led staff to see the name that was most familiar to them—Singulair—rather than what was actually being communicated—Sinequan.
The fact that these drugs are both given orally, often in the same 10-mg strength at a similar dosing interval, adds to the potential for confusion.
www.pharmacytimes.com /article.cfm?ID=2479   (722 words)

  
 Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias in the valuation process: a test for corroborating evidence.
Confirmation bias in sequential information search after preliminary decisions: An expansion of ….
Modeling and critiquing the confirmation bias in human reasoning.
confirmatory-bias.behaviouralfinance.net   (378 words)

  
 The Effects of the Confirmation Bias on Users of a Decision Support System for a Lease or Buy Decision   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
Decision makers subject to the confirmation bias are believed to develop initial beliefs as to the best choice and to allow these beliefs to influence the remainder of their decision-making processes and their final decisions.
The confirmation bias corresponds roughly to the biases discussed above that Sage terms "expectations" and Kydd and Aucoin-Drew term "selective perception." The DSS used in the experiment is a menu-driven Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet.
However, the effect of the confirmation bias on DSS users' final decisions is weak, as demonstrated in the present study.
www.bsbpa.umkc.edu /classes/ward/workpap.htm   (7875 words)

  
 Bad Moves entry
These “confirm” our beliefs that they really do have access to a source of knowledge beyond the physical world, or at least the world as science standardly understands it.
Confirmation bias is therefore more likely to lead the believer into error because the balance of evidence just does stack up against the truth of astrology.
Confirmation bias is a real impediment to good thinking, but unlike some errors in reasoning, it is very hard to root out.
www.butterfliesandwheels.com /badmovesprint.php?num=42   (706 words)

  
 [Jdm-society] Political postings
DF: I agree that you are justified in accusing me of suffering from confirmation bias - the overwhelming tendency of the human mind to gravitate toward evidence that seems to support its currently preferred hypothesis.
Confirmation bias exists because logically, beliefs and desires are separate, but in the human mind, they are linked.
Since Americans do not have access to (we can't collectively remember) the visceral, emotional and economic negative consequences of having a war fought on our "home court" then it's a good bet that we are understimating the cost of war.
www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2003-April/001460.html   (1832 words)

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