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Topic: Conjunction fallacy

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Representativeness heuristic

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	The Fallacy Files Glossary
		This glossary defines logical terms used in the files on individual fallacies and in entries in the weblog.
		For instance, an ambiguous or vague sentence is not in and of itself fallacious, since it is not an argument, but it may cause somebody to infer a false conclusion.
		A wild example of a fallacy is one found in the natural habitat of fallacious arguments, namely, the reasoning of real people, as opposed to the exercises in a logic textbook.
	www.fallacyfiles.org /glossary.html (2304 words)

	Logical fallacy - Open Encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		A logical fallacy is an error in logical argument which is independent of the truth of the premises.
		Recognizing fallacies in practical arguments may be difficult since arguments are often structured using rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between assertions.
		Fallacies are used frequently by pundits in the media and politics.
	open-encyclopedia.com /Logical_fallacy (1868 words)

	Study Four
		The rule that covers the relation between conjunction and disjunction is simply this: The denial of a conjunction is equivalent to (equal to) a disjunction of the denials of the propositions.
		And, the denial of a disjunction is equivalent to a conjunction of the denials of the propositions.
		The rule is: An implication is equivalent to a denial of a conjunction of the antecedent and the denial of the consequent.
	www.sjsu.edu /logic/study4.htm (2761 words)

	PL 120 Symbolic Logic I
		Conjunct A conjunct is a statement in a conjunction.
		Conjunction (Conj.) In propositional logic, conjunction is a rule of inference in which two premises are given and the conclusion is a conjunction of the two premises.
		Conjunction In propositional logic, conjunction is represented by the ampersand (and) or dot (·).
	cstl-cla.semo.edu /hill/pl120/glossary.htm (10152 words)

	Conjunction Fallacy
		Commentary on Wolford, Taylor, and Beck: The conjunction fallacy.
		DULANY, D.E. and D.J. Conversational implicature, conscious representation and the conjunction fallacy.
		The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors.
	conjunction-fallacy.behaviouralfinance.net (631 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		In an argument that commits the fallacy of amphiboly, the referent of a word or phrase is left unclear and the meaning of the phrase shifts in the course of the argument.
		Composition The fallacy of composition occurs if either (1) you attribute characteristics true of a part to a whole or (2) you claim that something that is true of each member of a class of objects is true of the class as a whole.
		Division The fallacy of division occurs if either (1) you attribute to a part characteristics that are true only of the corresponding whole or (2) you attribute to a member of a class a property that is true of a class of objects as a whole.
	www2.semo.edu /philosophy/courses/pl120/glossary.htm (7787 words)

	On the reality of the conjunction fallacy.
		Attributing higher 'probability' to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q.
		Despite the precautions, conjunction fallacies were as frequent under betting instructions as under standard probability instructions.
		Conjunction error rates on a continuous recognition memory test: little evidence for recollection.
	www.accelerated-learning-online.com /research/reality-conjunction-fallacy.asp (429 words)

	Conjunction fallacy -- Facts, Info, and Encyclopedia article (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		The conjunction fallacy is a (A fallacy in logical argumentation) logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.
		However, (Click link for more info and facts about mathematically) mathematically, the (A measure of how likely it is that some event will occur) probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") will always be less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone.
		In this way it would be similar to the (Click link for more info and facts about misleading vividness) misleading vividness fallacy.
	www.absoluteastronomy.com /encyclopedia/c/co/conjunction_fallacy.htm (377 words)

	Conjunction Fallacy
		When two events can occur separately or together, the conjunction, where they overlap, cannot be more likely than the likelihood of either of the two individual events.
		However, people forget this and ascribe a higher likelihood to combination events, erroneously associating quantity of events with quantity of probability.
		Just because something can happen in different circumstances it does not make it more likely.
	changingminds.org /explanations/theories/conjunction_fallacy.htm (189 words)

	Abstract text
		They showed that when subjects are asked to rate the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a conjunction fallacy: they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely than one of the constituent events.
		This is generally considered a fallacy since, in probability theory, the probability of the intersection of two events can never be greater than the probability of either event alone.
		In this experiment we study conjunction fallacy with physicians; this bias represents a deviation from normative standard but it could be considered functional during the medical decision; the choose of the conjunction of the two events could represent the preliminary phase of the diagnostic process.
	alpeadria.psico.unitn.it /textabs2.asp?id=4194 (355 words)

	Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
		However, Gigerenzer (1994, 1996) argues that people are naturally adapted to reasoning with probabilities in the form of frequencies and that the conjunction fallacy "disappears" if reasoning is in the form of frequencies.
		Several studies report that violations of the conjunction rule are rare if respondents are asked to consider the relative frequency of events rather than the probability of a single event.
		When the structure of the conjunction is made more apparent, respondents who appreciate the constraint supplied by the rule will be less likely to violate it.
	www.grida.no /climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/109.htm (605 words)

	Ph.D. Studies
		This finding indicates that students' intuitive responses are generally not random, but rather they are given under the influence of general tacit logical schemata or principles which are identifiable by means of posterior analysis of the explanations given by the subjects.
		The findings regarding the evolution of probabilistic intuitively based misconceptions with age reveal that some misconceptions progressively decrease (i.e., representativeness, gambler's fallacy and conjunction fallacy), while others become stronger (i.e., insensitivity to sample size, availability and time axis fallacy).
		the fallacy related to insensitivity to sample size became more frequent with age under the influence of the proportion schema).
	www.tau.ac.il /~masof/eduweb/toar3/archive/etakzir1999-7.html (1526 words)

	Articles - Logical fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		A logical fallacy may mean nothing more than a fallacy or it may mean an error in deductive reasoning, i.e., a formal fallacy.
		In the latter case, it is a flaw in the structure of a deductive argument as opposed to an error in the premises.
		Recognizing fallacies in everyday arguments may be difficult since arguments are often embedded in rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between statements.
	www.lastring.com /articles/Logical_fallacy (749 words)

	Mixing Memory: By Request: Reasoning
		It would be silly to try to describe all of this research, so, given the original request (all those fallacies and such), I'm going to focus on a particular example, the conjuction fallacy.
		Thus, they rated the conjunction as being more probably than one of the instances alone, thereby committing the conjunction fallacy.
		This version is sometimes called the "disjunction fallacy," though it is logically identical to the conjunction fallacy.
	mixingmemory.blogspot.com /2004/12/by-request-reasoning.html (2717 words)

	[Jdm-society] Re: Linda
		Another way to influence the conjuntion fallacy is to prime the cognitive perspective from which the information is processed - conjunction errors occur less when participants are asked to "think as a scientist" compared to those who are asked to "think as a clinician" - although the effect is rather small.
		That is, conjunction errors can occur in substantial proportion with a frequency frame (Sloman et al., 2003) and can be reduced substantially with a probability frame (Neace and Edgell, 2004).
		The force of the conjunction rule > is more readily appreciated when the conjunctions are defined by the > intersection of concrete classes than by a combination of properties.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2005-February/002213.html (947 words)

	[No title]
		conjunction fallacy Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
		A health survey was conducted in a representative sample of adult males in Chicago of all ages and occupations.
		A B 37% 35% _____ Reiter's syndrome (incomplete) (disease of uncertain cause characterized by arthritis, inflammation of eyelid (conjunctivitis), and inflammation of urethra (urethritis).
	www.rci.rutgers.edu /~gbc/puzz.txt (2548 words)

	Dp Abstract (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		Formally, a conjunction fallacy and a disjunction fallacy cannot be distinguished.
		This study demonstrates a violation of the rule in a context that justifies the label disjunction fallacy.
		In spite of this crucial difference, subjects in all four groups rendered highly similar judgments, and the ranking of categories higher than their superodinates was not lower when it amounted to a fallacy than when it did not.
	www.ratio.huji.ac.il /show-dp-abstract.asp?dpNumber=20 (368 words)

	Science abstracts for Steven M. Kemp
		The conjunction fallacy is an empirical effect than seems to entail fallacious reasoning on the part of subjects, but the nature and course of that reasoning is unknown.
		A series of experiments is being conducted to demonstrate the normative inferential value of the tendency in human reasoning known as the conjunction "fallacy." The effort is to demonstrate that, under realistic conditions, with real base rates for real events, this tendency generates true answers more often than predicted by chance alone.
		If the conjunction effect is the result of a valid form of inference, subjects reasoning so as to produce the conjunction effect should reach true conclusions more often than by random guessing.
	www.unc.edu /~skemp/Science/smkSciAbstracts.html (6716 words)

	Ming the Mechanic
		In a comment on FutureHi, Michael Anissimov mentioned a number of pervasive errors in reasoning that are common to practically all human beings.
		Overall, the primary fallacy is in assuming that similarity in one aspect leads to similarity in other aspects.
		The gambler’s fallacy, the belief in runs of good and bad luck can be explained by the representativeness heuristic.
	ming.tv /flemming2.php/__show_day/_w2004-05-09 (1331 words)

	c:
		Section One of the proposed article will present three major biases -- the conjunction fallacy, the overconfidence bias, and the base rate fallacy; all of which will be used as running examples in the remainder of the article -- plus brief discusssions of about half a dozen other cognitive illusions.
		Hertwig and Gigerenzer (1999) and Fiedler (1988), for example, demonstrated that the conjunction fallacy can be drastically reduced and even made to disappear when the probability format is replaced by a frequency format.
		A formal principle, such as the modens ponens and modus pollens, the conjunction rule, or Bayes’s rule, is chosen as normative, and some real-world content is filled in afterward, on the assumption that only structure matters.
	home.cerge-ei.cz /ortmann/JELprospectus.html (3261 words)

	[Jdm-society] Re: Linda
		I tried to be clear in my "play" that I think that the conjunction fallacy (and other uses of the representativeness heuristic) are really real and explain a lot of behavior.
		191-198 Abstract Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q.
		We used betting paradigms and unambiguously conjunctive statements to reduce these sources of ambiguity about conjunctive reasoning in a sample of college students.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2005-February/002200.html (365 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		"small-sample fallacy" is assuming that even a small sample should be representative as well (that close to an even split between heads and tails is just as likely in 10 flips as in 1000 flips).
		conjunction fallacy: conjunction (A and B) can't be more likely than either one alone.
		Note that fallacy occurs even for people trained in statistics, who should know better (graph p.
	www.runet.edu /~dhall/Matlin5ech11notes.txt (1024 words)

	Conservation Ecology: Complex Models and the Conjunction Fallacy: A Caution
		Schauber, E. Complex models and the conjunction fallacy: a caution.
		It is a reassuring account of the cognitive difficulties associated with Bayesian results (at least reassuring to those of us who have had such difficulties and wondered if we were cognitive cripples) and an exciting framework for circumventing those difficulties.
		However, I wish to express concern about the author's interpretation of the conjunction fallacy in the case of multiple models of nested complexity.
	www.ecologyandsociety.org /vol3/iss2/resp2 (253 words)

	American Journal of Psychology (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		Five studies investigated the conjunction effect (or conjunction fallacy), in which participants report that the conjunction of two events is more rather than less likely than one of the events alone.
		Under some circumstances the context in which the conjunction problem was presented (after questions emphasizing logic or questions emphasizing opinions) affected occurrence of the effect.
		However, statements representing the conjunction of three simple statements were (appropriately) judged less likely than those representing the conjunction of two simple statements.
	www.press.uillinois.edu /journals/ajptoc/ajp116_1abstracts.html (984 words)

	[Jdm-society] Re: Linda (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		However, it doesn't seem to account for all of the conjunction fallacy results.
		The second paper is >A Different Conjunction Fallacy >Bonini, Nicolao; Tentori, Katya; Osherson, Daniel >Source Mind and Language.
		The conjunction fallacy was defined as betting on the second.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2005-February/002205.html (310 words)

	Abstract text
		In a variety of circumstances, people rate the conjunction of two events as more as probable than one of the constituent events.
		Each subject read 5 problems; two problems described social events with the same probability (events were not representative of the scenario presented), two problems described social events with different probability (events were representative of the scenario presented), one problem (neutral) presented a typical topic of statistical book.
		Participants had to choose which one of two alternatives was most probable and had to report the strategy used in making their decision.
	alpeadria.psico.unitn.it /textabs2.asp?id=4196 (244 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-16)
		One part of a coniunction can facilitate recall of the conjunction, and hence of another part of the experience - and combinations of events can be judged to be more probable than their components (Tversky and Kahneman 1983).
		Thus, the observer may attach special significance to such a conjunction.
		As part of a (much) larger study, we asked that same Roper Poll question of 144 subjects (mainly University of Oregon students and some townspeople interested in the $20 pay for two hours).
	www.textfiles.com /ufo/UFOBBS/3000/3227.ufo (192 words)

	Gambling Fallacies:
		Large chance: Many people prefer a single large chance to many small chances, even if the odds are equal (unless the multiple chances have a different source, in which case they are preferred).
		Conjunction errors: added conditions can make a case seem more probable, despite the fact that added conditions make it inherently less probable.
		Be careful not to mistake âregression to the meanâ for the Gamblerâs fallacy.
	www.math.byu.edu /~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html (982 words)

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