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Topic: Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems


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 [No title]
For example in the urban system, housing is a sensitive control point but, if one wishes to revive the economy of a city and make it a better place for low-income as well as other people, it appears that the amount of low-income housing must be reduced rather than increased.
As a third characteristic of social systems, there is usually a fundamental conflict between the short-term and long-term consequences of a policy change.
The broader social system of the country and the world requires that the goals of the urban areas be curtailed and that the pressures of such curtailment become high enough to keep the urban areas and population within the bounds that are satisfactory to the larger system of which the city is a part.
www.constitution.org /col/cbss.txt   (10297 words)

  
 Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
"Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems" is a paper by JayForrester.
And it is notsurprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than thosethat have been relieved.
Forrester's work with complex systems has potential applicationsto semiotics, artificial intelligence, and the semanticweb.
www.therfcc.org /counterintuitive-behavior-of-social-systems-8550.html   (157 words)

  
 Jay W. Forrester: Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems
System dynamics has demonstrated how companies and how urban systems behave in ways that run against most of what man would do to correct their ills.
Suppose in the basic world system of Figures 1 and 2 we ask how to sustain the quality of life which is beginning to decline after 1950.
Actual system rates continue to be affected by the varying conditions of the system.) But reduction in investment rate and reduction in agricultural emphasis are counterintuitive and not likely to be discovered or accepted without extensive system studies and years of argument — perhaps more years than are available.
www.constitution.org /ps/cbss.htm   (10285 words)

  
 FOUNDATIONS OF NIKLAS LUHMANN'S THEORY OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
Meaning enables the psychic and social system formations to interpenetrate, while protecting their autopoiesis; meaning simultaneously enables consciousness to understand itself and continue to affect itself in communication, and enables communication to be referred back to the consciousness of the participants.
As they are followed by a social system, however, its rules come to have a more "imposing" intentionality than that of a stop sign since those rules, taken as a kind of system akin to a computer program, are capable of responding to their environment in various ways, while a stop sign just sits there.
It is intimately related to his formulation of system theory as dealing with systems that are self-referential and hence closed to direct contact with their environment and as proceeding by means of functional analysis, where instead of asking what are actual states of affairs, one looks for functional equivalents.
www.libfl.ru /Luhmann/Luhmann4.html   (10652 words)

  
 Jay Wright Forrester - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Forrester is considered one of the inventors of System Dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems.
The unique insights of the urban dynamics model attracted the attention of urban planners around the world, eventually leading Forrester to meet a founder of the Club of Rome.
World Dynamics took on modeling the complex interactions of the world economy, population and ecology, which was understandably met with a great deal of misunderstanding (see also Donella Meadows and Limits to Growth).
www.wikipedia.org /wiki/Jay_Forrester   (296 words)

  
 [No title]
Examples of these applications include the use of system dynamics for dispute resolution, comparative studies with fields as diverse as control theory and institutional economics, dynamic analysis of the effects of economic development, applications to ecology, psychology and physiology, and energy policy studies.
Systems thinking and modeling are needed to speed the improvement cycle for processes with long time delays.
System dynamics is placed in context in a readable and scholarly manner.
web.mit.edu /jsterman/www/DID.html   (3787 words)

  
 Semiotics -   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
This process of carrying meaning depends on the use of codes that may be the individual noises or letters that humans use to form words, the body movements they make to show attitude or emotion, or even something as general as the clothes they wear.
Though he insisted that animals are not capable of language, he expanded the purview of semiotics to include non-human signaling and communication systems, thus raising some of the issues addressed by philosophy of mind and coining the term zoosemiotics.
Biosemiotics is the study of semiotic processes at all levels of biology, or a semiotic study of living systems.
psychcentral.com /psypsych/Semiology   (1677 words)

  
 Society for Organizational Learning
Confidence in system dynamics models can be increased by a wide variety of tests that include tests of model structure, model behavior, and a model's policy implications.
The behavior of the subjects is explained well with a simple heuristic long used in system dynamics modeling and well grounded in behavioral decision theory.
The generality of the results is considered and implications for behavioral theories of aggregate social and economic dynamics are explored.
www.sol-ne.org /res/wp/pubs.html   (6768 words)

  
 What is Policy Resistance
Forrester (1971) calls such phenomena the "counterintuitive behavior of social systems." These unexpected dynamics often lead to policy resistance, the tendency for interventions to be delayed, diluted, or defeated by the response of the system to the intervention itself (Meadows, 1982).
This realization is one of the sore discouragements of our century...You cannot meddle with one part of a complex system from the outside without the almost certain risk of setting off disastrous events that you hadn't counted on in other, remote parts.
But in complex systems such as an urban center or a hamster (or a business, society, or ecosystem) cause and effect are often distant in time and space.
www.stewardshipmodeling.com /policy_resistance.htm   (1254 words)

  
 ICE2 abstracts: Roberts
It emerges from, "...multi-loop non-linear feedback systems." (Forrester, 1995) An ontology is an ordered classification of knowledge that assigns meaning (semantics) to instances and classes of items according to a structure or schema.
The technology for handling symbolic systems is as important as that for handling concrete artifacts.
Pea (1993) and others (cf Salomon, 1993, passim) show "Parts of the whole component process may be distributed as social constructions or as a result of human-tool symbiosis" (Pea, 1993, 67).
www.malts.ed.ac.uk /ice2/abstracts/roberts.htm   (651 words)

  
 PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY
Many of these systems ideas derive from the natural sciences and engineering, but they apply as well to the social sciences and other fields of professional practice (business, the helping professions, etc.).
This course draws primarily from the literature of general systems theory and cybernetics, which launched the systems research program, and secondarily from the literature of chaos, complexity, and “complex adaptive systems” which continues this program today.
Forrester, Jay W. “Understanding the Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems.” Testimony to Committee on Banking and Currency, US House of Representatives, 10/7/70.
www.sysc.pdx.edu /classes/spf01w.htm   (873 words)

  
 Road Maps: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics
A narration of experiences of a systems thinker and the struggle to use systems concepts correctly in today's society.
An introduction to the concepts of system dynamics, discussing social policies and their derivation from incomplete understanding of complex systems.
Forrester's keynote speech at the 1994 Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling Conference for K-12 Education proposes objectives that should be achieved through a system dynamics education.
sysdyn.clexchange.org /road-maps/rm-toc.html   (2033 words)

  
 Understanding Urban Dynamics
While the dynamics of growth can be frustrating and depressing, it's better to be aware of what we're up against.
The paper is an introduction to the concepts of system dynamics, discussing social policies and their derivation from incomplete understanding of complex systems.
This paper is based on testimony for the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, on October 7, 1970.
www.exponentialimprovement.com /cms/urban.shtml   (129 words)

  
 Dynamic Semantic Systems - an Information Systems' Impact Model (ResearchIndex)   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
Abstract: This paper presents a descriptive framework comprised of a high level model of the manner in which information systems impact on social systems -- in particular the dynamic semantic systems which determine how information is interpreted and used.
The framework draws on existing theoretical components: Wittgenstein's language-games, and the concepts of bifurcation, resilience and stability in social systems qua complex systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium.
1 Systems and societies: the basic cybernetics of social evolu..
citeseer.ist.psu.edu /519194.html   (422 words)

  
 Basic Principles
Second Treatise on Government, John Locke (1689) — Principal proponent of the social contract theory which forms the basis for modern constitutional republican government.
Behavioral Economics — Explores the psychological and cognitive factors in economic decisions.
Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems, by Jay Forrester — Classic paper on why public policies produce unintended consequences.
www.constitution.org /cs_basic.htm   (898 words)

  
 ExponentialImprovement.com -> Social Issues
Effective policy-making is not defined by a “one-shot” set of actions; it must define actions over time that reinforce the desired outcomes.
Systems thinking helps us gain insight into system behavior (both immediate and delayed), arrive at a shared understanding, and resolve conflicts.
The death spiral of our current, fundamentally free-market-based, health care system is due to our focus on the individual, rather than the whole.
www.exponentialimprovement.com /cms/socialissues.shtml   (529 words)

  
 System Dynamics. Documentation -------------------------- System Dynamics. Documentation VENSIM, Ithink, ithink, Stella ...
Account of an expert's experiences in System Dynamics and her efforts to effectively use its concepts in today's society.
An introduction to System Dynamics concepts, discussing social politics and the repercussions inherent in the incomplete understanding of complex systems.
This is an introduction to the physical and social systems that feature feedback in their structure, with abundant examples.
www.catunesco.upc.es /cursos/cde.htm   (2209 words)

  
 Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems and Research on Native Housing
Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems and Research on Native Housing
linear but complex, that the behaviour of social systems is counterintuitive
Counterintuitive behavior of social systems, by Jay W. Forrester
www.ftlcomm.com /ensign/desantisArticles/2001_300/desantis320/morestudies.html   (378 words)

  
 Planning and Markets: Grubenmann: Section VII
The Cybernetic Laws of Social Progress, Towards a Critical Social Philosophy and a Criticism of Marxism.
Brokerage, Models of Inequality in the Social Structure of Competition, Lecture Script for "Network Analyses of Social Structure", BUS560-SOC409.
System Dynamics und Makrooekonometrie, Dynamische makrooekonomische Modellierung in multimethodologischer Sicht.
www-pam.usc.edu /volume4/v4i1a4sr.html   (364 words)

  
 SpringsFutures.com: empowering futurists in the Pikes Peak region.
On July 20th, 2004, Rabbi Dr. Moshe Dror spoke to the Pikes Peak Chapter of the World Future Society on, The Third Exodus: a Cyber Rabbi's Vision, at the Penrose House in Colorado Springs.
Jay Forrester, the founder of the field of system dynamics, has written a paper, The Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems [PDF, 30 pages, 922kb], which explains why dealing with social systems is so difficult.
Bob Powell, a business consultant in the area of systems dynamics, brings Forrester's paper to the attention of both newbies as well as seasoned futurists.
www.childrencomefirst.com /futures.shtml   (464 words)

  
 Applications of Dynamic Systems Modeling to Education Finance Policy (ResearchIndex)   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
Abstract: Introduction "To know the behavior that follows from assumptions about parts of a system can be achieved only through modeling and computer simulation" (Forrester, 1994).
The goal of this article is to introduce education policymakers and policy analysts to dynamic systems modeling as a tool for understanding the complexities of education policy and reducing those complexities to meaningful, informative and flexible computer simulations.
Modeling School Finance Equity as a Dynamic System - Baker, al.
citeseer.ist.psu.edu /448308.html   (458 words)

  
 Is Humanity Destined to Self-Destruct?
See also Seymour Hirsch, Social Limits to Growth, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1976; and Kan Chen and Karl F. Lagler, eds., Growth Policy: Population Environment and Beyond, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1974.
Jane Lubchenco, "Entering the Century of the Environment: A New Social Contract for Science," Science, 279 (23 January 1998): 496.
Recent Social Trends in the United States; report of the President's research committee on social trends with a foreword by Herbert Hoover, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933.
www.indiana.edu /~speaweb/perspectives/humanity7.html   (1427 words)

  
 publications   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
From The Ranch To System Dynamics: An Autobiography
All Models are Wrong: Reflections on Becoming a Systems Scientist
Desert Island Dynamics: An Annotated Survey of the Essential System Dynamics Literature
web.mit.edu /sdg/www/publications.html   (249 words)

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