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Topic: Decision analysis

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Decision theory

Management science

Optimization

	Centre for Health Evidence
		For a clinical decision analysis that compares two clinical strategies, there are three possible results: the first strategy is better than the second, the second strategy is better than the first, or both strategies are equally good (or equally bad), a result known as a toss-up or a close call [28].
		For a decision analysis built for an individual patient, look for the description of that patient's condition; if the patient is well described, you should be readily able to judge how closely your patient resembles her or him.
		An article reporting a decision analysis built for a group of patients should have an analogous portion of the text, detailing the clinical characteristics of patients to whom the results of the analysis are to be applied.
	www.cche.net /principles/content_d_analysis.asp (6450 words)

	Introduction to Decision Analysis
		Good decisions based on a systematic consideration of all relevant factors and stakeholder opinions and values lead to good outcomes, both for those involved in the decision making process, and for the customers who are directly impacted by the consequences and effects of such decisions.
		Decision analysis is the process of separating a complex decision into its component parts and using a mathematical formula to reconstitute the whole decision from its parts.
		Decision analysis can help in all of these various situations but in each of them the analyst should explicitly specify the decision makers, the perspective of the analysis and the time frame for deciding.
	gunston.doit.gmu.edu /730/IntroductionToDecisionAnalysis.asp (9804 words)

	Decision Analysis Books - Palisade
		Decision Analysis for Mgmt Judgment - Goodwin and Wright
		Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration - Newendorp and Schuyler
		Not surprisingly, it is the leading text in the field of decision analysis, and is used widely by both students and practitioners alike.
	www.palisade.com /books/decision_analysis.asp (680 words)

	DTREG -- Predictive Modeling Software
		Decision trees present a clear, logical model that can be understood easily by people who are not mathematically inclined.
		A decision tree is an excellent tool for this type of analysis because it shows which combination of attributes best predict the purchase of the product.
		And, a decision tree or SVM model can be used to “score” a set of individuals and rank them by the probability that they will respond positively to a marketing effort.
	www.dtreg.com (1611 words)

	Operations Research Management Science - Decision Analysis Software Survey
		Historically, decision analysis has been thought of as a process supported by quantitative modeling and structured elicitation techniques which are intended to improve the quality of complex decisions.
		Also, care must be taken to ensure that decision analysis software is applied in a manner that is consistent with the underlying logic of the modeling approach implemented.
		When shopping for decision analysis software, evaluate the software in relation to the parts of the decision analysis process that are most relevant to you.
	lionhrtpub.com /orms/orms-6-02/frdass.html (2148 words)

	Decision tree - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		In decision theory, a decision tree is a graph of decisions and their possible consequences, (including resource costs and risks) used to create a plan to reach a goal.
		Decision tree can be described also as the synergy of mathematical and computing techniques that aids on the description, categorisation and generalisation of a given set of data.
		A decision tree is a model of the data that encodes the distribution of the class label (again the Y) in terms of the predictor attributes.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Decision_tree (1373 words)

	Getting research findings into practice: Decision analysis and the implementation of research findings -- Lilford et ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-03)
		Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the robustness of a choice made using decision analysis.
		Decision analysis depends on probabilities and values, neither of which can be measured with certainty.
		Dowie J. The research-practice gap and the role of decision analysis in closing it.
	bmj.bmjjournals.com /cgi/content/full/317/7155/405 (3174 words)

	Decision Analysis Sources at analyticalQ
		To me, decision analysis is a structured, scientific approach to analysing decisions for the purposes of making a good decision with desirable outcome.
		Decision analysis techniques originally started with decision trees and then influence diagrams.
		Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa (1999) wrote a decision analysis book for the layman, called "Smart Choices." PrOACT is the process they advocate for multi-objective, multi-criteria decisions with no uncertainty.
	www.analyticalq.com /da/default.htm (282 words)

	Decision Strategies - Education Education Courses
		Decision Teams benefit from having a structured approach that enables creativity, assures explicit handling of ambiguities and uncertainties, builds understanding and enthusiasm for the selected decision and encourages regular dialog with decision makers.
		Decision Strategies offers an advanced course and hands-on coaching support for internal practitioners who will facilitate the process within their organizations.
		Strategic play risk analysis is different from traditional geologic, petroleum-system driven play analysis in that it focuses upon the geotechnical and business aspects of a particular company exploring in the play.
	www.decisionstrategies.com /dsi_edu_educourse.htm (902 words)

	Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration
		Decision analysis can be applied to any type of business investment decision.
		The remainder of the book is devoted to the complex subject of risk analysis—determining the probabilities of occurrence of the possible outcomes of a decision made under conditions of uncertainty.
		His course, research, and numerous publications also brought into focus how established decision theory methods such as the expected value concept, decision tree analysis, and utility theory can be used to advantage in evaluating drilling prospects.
	www.maxvalue.com /dape.htm (1052 words)

	Decision Modeling
		It is often argued that executive decisions are not amenable to quantitative approaches due to the “qualitative” aspects that characterize those decisions.
		Quantification, it is said, may be useful in lower-level problems where decisions, in many cases, can be programmed.
		– a rational approach to decision making that makes use of a formal model to represent alternative courses of action, potential states of nature relevant to the problem being analyzed, probability distributions of the states of nature, and expected payoffs to determine an optimal decision strategy.
	groups.msn.com /DecisionModeling/decisionanalysis1.msnw (508 words)

	Decision analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner.
		The term decision analysis was coined in 1964 by Ronald A. Howard, who since then, as a professor at Stanford University, has been instrumental in developing much of the practice and professional application of DA.
		The Decision Analytic Methods are used to control environmental hazards.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Decision_analysis (231 words)

	TreePlan, SensIt, and RiskSim Add-Ins for Excel
		You will be able to use Excel to analyze a variety of decision problems, and you save 20% when you purchase this bundle instead of the individual add-ins.
		Decision trees are useful for analyzing sequential decision problems under uncertainty, i.e., linked decisions.
		In a decision situation, sensitivity analysis helps you determine which of your input assumptions are critical so that you know where to focus your effort for gathering more information or reducing uncertainty.
	www.treeplan.com (343 words)

	Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, Risk and Decision Analysis Software - Palisade (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-03)
		Expected value is the cornerstone of formal, quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty.
		The remainder of the book is devoted to decision modeling: determining the possible outcomes and their probabilities for decisions made under conditions of uncertainty.
		Entitled "Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration," the course introduced many concepts into the lexicon and accepted practice for analyzing drilling prospects.
	www.philscience.com /palisade/books/petrol_exploration.html (823 words)

	Decision Analysis Books - Palisade Asia-Pacific
		The book emphasizes the practical application of decision analysis without overly technical mathematical explanations.
		This is an update of the 1975 best-selling first edition, which became the standard reference in the field.
		Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision.
	www.palisade.com.au /books/decision_analysis.asp (655 words)

	A Decision-Analysis Reading List
		This is the standard reference for multiattribute utility theory, although it also is good for decision analysis in general.
		Professor Raiffa also is a founder of decision analysis, and like Lindley, he explains the material well.
		Professor Edwards has been involved in decision analysis since its beginnings, and his history (Chapter 14) is an eye-opener.
	www.duke.edu /~rnau/readlist.htm (649 words)

	Decision Frameworks - A Decision Analysis Company: Improving Decisions in the Energy Industry
		is a decision analysis and decision facilitation consulting firm specializing in the energy industry.
		From decision through implementation, Decision Frameworks offers a unique and practical approach to improved decision-making, using a combination of decision analysis tools, facilitation and extensive technical and commercial expertise in the petroleum industry.
		Enable teams, individuals, departments and companies implement decision analysis at a practical level.
	www.decisionframeworks.com (138 words)

	INFORMS - Decision Analysis Society Prizes
		This award is given annually to the best decision analysis journal article or book published in the second preceding calendar year, as judged by a panel of Society members.
		The DAS Practice Award is given annually to the best decision analysis application, as judged by a panel of Society members.
		Membership in DAS is a prerequisite for the submitting decision analyst to participate in the competition.
	www.informs.org /Prizes/DecisionAnalysisSocPrize.html (1329 words)

	Decision Tree Analysis - Decision Trees from Mind Tools
		Decision Trees are excellent tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action.
		As you complete a set of calculations on a node (decision square or uncertainty circle), all you need to do is to record the result.
		Decision Tree Analysis is just one of the essential career skills that you can learn on the MindTools.com site.
	www.mindtools.com /pages/article/newTED_04.htm (2103 words)

	decision/analysis partners: Consulting services in logistics, supply chain, telecommunications and postal service.
		From security audits to market assessments and financial analysis, this flexible arrangement always provide outstanding value to our clients.
		decision/analysis partners supports executive industry and government decision making by developing, measuring and evaluating strategic scenarios that take into account strengths, opportunities, risks and rewards, providing companies and organizations with a roadmap for the future.
		Sound decisions and sound decision making are critical to operations management and service planning because they impact at once customers, employees and costs.
	www.decisionanalysis.net /services/services.html (415 words)

	OR/MS Today - Decision Analysis Software Survey (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-03)
		The survey should not be considered as comprehensive, but rather as a representation of available Decision Analysis packages.
		If you know of a Decision Analysis package that is not in the survey, please contact Jennie Farnsworth at (770) 431-0867, ext.
		Be sure to read the accompanying article by Daniel T. Maxwell, Decision Analysis: Aiding Insight VI — 'It's Not Your Grandfather's Decision Analysis Software'.
	www.lionhrtpub.com /orms/surveys/das/das.html (411 words)

	Decision Analysis and System Dynamics Resources at Arizona State University
		Decision Analysis and System Dynamics Resources at Arizona State University
		These resources will be useful if you are interested in applying quantitative methods to improve decision making in situations with uncertainty, multiple conflicting objectives, or dynamic change.
		For further information about decision analysis and system dynamics, follow the links below to the Decision Analysis Society or the system dynamics mega link list.
	www.public.asu.edu /~kirkwood (303 words)

	Decision Analysis Books - Palisade Europe
		It is aimed at managers and administrators in both business and government organisations, and has also been adopted by many MBA programmes.
		The book emphasises the practical application of decision analysis without overly technical mathematical explanations.
		Palisade Europe UK Ltd. strongly recommends this book an excellent instructional source to help you model and analyse real-world problems - including risk - using the techniques of decision analysis.
	www.palisade-europe.com /books/decision_analysis.asp (683 words)

	Lumina Decision Systems - Analytica - Beyond the Spreadsheet
		ICAM integrated assessment of effects and policies towards global climate change.
		Six new examples on environment and risk analysis.
		Analytica User Forum is the place for Analytica novices and experts to share tips, questions and answers.
	www.lumina.com (93 words)

	Decision Making Resources
		The study of Decision Science (DS) is concerned with mathematical methods and tools for solving problems relating to the allocation of scarce resources subject to constraints.
		It covers the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, philosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory.
		It offers a ‘representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory.
	home.ubalt.edu /ntsbarsh/Business-stat/Refop.htm (9162 words)

	Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis
		Supported a strategic decision to move from government owned infrastructure to a commercial services approach for long distance services.
		Through network optimization, price management techniques, and system engineering services, we have helped the government to reduce the cost of the average long distance telephone call by over 80 percent.
		Functional requirements and technical alternatives were defined along with an economic analysis.
	www.mitretek.org /StrategicPlanningAndDecisionAnalysis.htm (238 words)

	TreeAge Software, Decision Analysis, Decision Trees
		Decision analysis is a transformational tool, changing the way governments, industries and healthcare institutions see today and optimize tomorrow.
		Model problems as decision trees, Markov models or influence diagrams.
		Analyze decision based models and make better decisions using expected value calculations, cost-effectiveness analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.
	www.treeage.com (140 words)

	Decision Analysis
		Petitti,D.B. Meta analysis, decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis: methods for quantitative synthesis in medicine.
		Ragsdale,C.T. Spreadsheet modeling and decision analysis: A practical introduction to management science.
		White,M.E. and Erb,H. Decision analysis in bovine practice.
	www.vetschools.co.uk /EpiVetNet/decision_analysis.htm (65 words)

	Palisade Corporation - Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Statistical Analysis, and Optimization Software
		Delivering schedule and cost risk analysis to project managers.
		An innovative, 2-day, risk analysis forum featuring top-level consultants and industry leaders providing software instruction, best practices, and overviews of latest trends in risk.
		IKB Deutsche Industriebank uses @RISK for Portfolio Loan PricingTraditional methods for pricing portfolio loans were inadequate when accounting for wild variability in factors ranging from borrower cash flows to interest rates.
	www.palisade.com (277 words)

	Decision Analysis
		Professor L. Robin Keller named to succeed Robert T. Clemen and Don N. Kleinmuntz as Editor-in-Chief as of January 1, 2007
		Special subscription offer to Decision Analysis Society members.
		Visit our sponsor, the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society.
	da.pubs.informs.org (83 words)

	Decision Analysis Society - Software (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-03)
		Decision analysis applications often use generic modeling software such as spreadsheets, statistics packages, and financial modeling languages.
		Specialized software is also available for modeling decision problems using decision trees, influence diagrams, belief networks, multi-attribute utility functions, hierarchical value structures, Monte Carlo simulation, and multi-criteria optimization.
		This page provides a guide to a number of software products currently available, including some popular spreadsheet add-ins for decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation.
	faculty.fuqua.duke.edu /daweb/dasw.htm (112 words)

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