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efr: November 2005 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02) |
 | | The EFR scenario is concerned with “what could, might, or is most likely to, be the process by which the situation changes between now and that date." Given the epistemological foundation previously described, any EFR scenario is inherently impossible to validate definitively with data because the future is, by definition, unknowable. |
 | | In the EFR method, the only criterion for a scenario’s being possible is the interviewee’s judgment that the projected events and trends upon which her or his scenario is based have a probability greater than zero. |
 | | Essentially, the EFR approach "is a form of ethnography adapted to the needs and constraints of Futures Research," and "bears a similarity to the 'grounded theory' approach." In other words, the EFR method, although formally distinct, can be thought of as a hybrid method of inquiry. |
| cbdd.typepad.com /efr/2005/11 (3806 words) |
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