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Topic: Earthquake prediction

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  Earthquake prediction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake in a specific magnitude range will occur in a specific region and time window.
Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks.
On 17 October 1989 the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred, measuring 7.1 and causing 63 deaths.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Earthquake_prediction   (1217 words)

 Earthquake Prediction in China
Earthquake prediction at the present time is not an exact science, and forecasts of earthquake occurrences have not been very accurate.
A short term earthquake prediction was given to the population in the Haicheng area as early as mid-January 1975.
The Chinese began to study systematically the unusual animal behavior, and the Haicheng earthquake of February 1975 was predicted successfully as early as in mid-December of 1974.
www.drgeorgepc.com /EarthquakePredictionChina.html   (2620 words)

 Basic Principles in Earthquake Prediction. By Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis
Earthquake prediction at the present time is far from an exact science, and forecasts have not been very accurate.
Rather than using historical records of earthquakes which are very recent, it is possible to examine the history of slip rates along a fault as preserved in the geologic record and evidenced by offsets in sediments and in the surface configuration of geomorphological features.
Although the surface changes are significant in earthquake prediction, scientists have to be careful not to confuse anomalies and instrumental errors with the actual movements related to earthquake activity along a fault.
www.drgeorgepc.com /EarthquakePrediction.html   (5769 words)

 Earthquakes - General Interest Publication
The goal of earthquake prediction is to give warning of potentially damaging earthquakes early enough to allow appropriate response to the disaster, enabling people to minimize loss of life and property.
This clustering of earthquakes leads scientists to estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquake occurring during the next 30 years in the San Francisco Bay region is about 67 percent (twice as likely as not).
The main goals of the ongoing Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment are to record the geophysical signals before and after the expected earthquake; to issue a short-term prediction; and to develop effective methods of communication between earthquake scientists and community officials responsible for disaster response and mitigation.
pubs.usgs.gov /gip/earthq1/predict.html   (654 words)

 Savage Earth: Quake Prediction
Meanwhile, in 1983, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey predicted that a moderate earthquake was due to strike near Parkfield, California.
The prediction was based on the observation that earthquakes with magnitudes of about 6.0 had occurred there in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966.
A group of Greek scientists claim to be able to predict specific earthquakes based on changes in electrical activity in the ground and say that they have done so three times in the last decade, although their methods and evidence have been sharply criticized.
www.pbs.org /wnet/savageearth/earthquakes/html/sidebar2.html   (670 words)

 Earthquake Prediction   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
A heavily debated method of earthquake prediction based on the identification of transient variations in the earth’s electric field, or seismic electric signals (SES), is the VAN method, named after the researchers who developed the method (Varotsos, Alexopoulos, and Nagao).
Earthquake related strain changes may cause pore pressure changes which affect fluid-rock interaction and cause fluids (with commonly heterogeneous concentrations) to migrate in the crust, especially along highly porous pathways such as faults.
While earthquake prediction may not yet be possible, earthquake prediction research has greatly increased our understanding of earthquake source mechanisms, the structural complexities of fault zones, and the earthquake recurrence interval expected at a given location.
www.ees.nmt.edu /~davew/rweb/eqpaper2.htm   (3475 words)

 Earthquake Myths
SCIENTISTS OF the Department of Physics, Moscow State University, have proposed to predict earthquakes by measuring polarization of the solar light that is reflected from the surface of the Earth.
An earthquake is a shaking of the ground caused by the sudden breaking and shifting of large sections of the earth's rocky outer shell.
One important clue in the work of predicting earthquakes is the usual behavior of primary and secondary waves that are recorded almost constantly on seismographs.
www.cdli.ca /CITE/earthquakes_predictions.htm   (573 words)

 Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology
The predicted earthquake was the magnitude 7.0 Guyuan (36.5 N, 106.3 E), Ningxia province earthquake on Oct. 25, 1622.
4.2 was from northwest to northeast, and predicted the 5.3 Northridge earthquake on Mar. 20, 1994.
The earthquake data are from the USGS (@12), and the average latitude and longitude absolute errors between the earthquake data and the geoeruption data are 0.10° and 0.32°, respectively.
www.gisdevelopment.net /proceedings/tehran/p_session2/bampf.htm   (5479 words)

 Earthquake!   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
An earthquake is the shaking of the earth caused by pieces of the crust of the Earth that suddenly shift.
Earthquake waves are the shock waves created at the focus of an earthquake and sent out in all directions through the earth.
Earthquakes are happening every day somewhere in the world, and each of these quakes send out seismic waves in all directions-- outward along the surface of the earth and downward into the middle of the earth.
cse.ssl.berkeley.edu /lessons/indiv/davis/inprogress/QuakesEng3.html   (2517 words)

 EQ Prediction & Control
If it is determined that earthquakes have recurrence intervals of say 1 every 100 years, and there are no records of earthquakes in the last 100 years, then a long-term forecast can be made and efforts can be undertaken to reduce seismic risk.
Following a magnitude 8.1 earthquake on September 19, 1985, a magnitude 7.5 aftershock on Sept. 21, and a magnitude 7.3 aftershock on Oct. 25, along with thousands of other smaller aftershocks, the Michoacan Seismic gap was mostly filled in.
This led scientist to issue a prediction for the Parkfield gap that sometime between 1986 and 1993 there would be an earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater south of Parkfield.
www.tulane.edu /~sanelson/geol204/eqprediction&cntrl.htm   (1625 words)

 Earthquake Prediction
"Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists," said Keilis-Borok, a professor in residence in UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and department of earth and space sciences.
A magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck Hokkaido on Sept. 25, 2003.
Prediction by this method is based on observations of small earthquakes that occur daily.
www.etamerica.com /earthquake_prediction.htm   (1119 words)

The medium-term prediction refers to time windows of some years and the short-term prediction could be anything shorter and possibly very close to a few hours.
Nevertheless, the “chaotic” concept of the occurrence of the earthquakes has been adopted by the majority of seismologists, and consequently, the statistical treatment of seismic data is used extensively, in an attempt to predict, in time, any imminent large EQ.
In order to predict an earthquake it is required that all of its three parameters (location, time of occurrence, magnitude) will be determined, before its occurrence, with an acceptable accuracy and within narrow error limits.
www.earthquakeprediction.gr /introductionen.htm   (1377 words)

 Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting
The basic idea behind using historical patterns is that faults tend to have a repeated and regular history of earthquakes, particularly, that earthquakes tend to occur at regular intervals or with definite patterns in a fault or a system of faults.
Such predictions are not good for pinpointing a time, a day, or even a year that a major event will happen, but they can give us an idea of how likely it is that a major earthquake might occur during the next 30 years.
Given that earthquakes represent the release of built up tectonic stresses, it follows that smaller earthquakes occur more often and that larger earthquakes are less frequent.
faculty.weber.edu /bdattilo/shknbk/notes/erthqkprdctn.htm   (412 words)

 Earthquake Prediction 101
Earthquake Prediction 101 is a set of articles and resources for researchers and the general public who are interested in seismology and the forecasting of seismic events such as earthquakes.
Although earthquake prediction is still maturing, it is now reliable enough to make official earthquake warnings possible.
The modern era of scientific earthquake prediction began in 1975, when Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of the city of Haicheng based on reports from scientists and civilians of unusual observations.
earthquake.nccboston.com   (307 words)

 Fujita Research Report - Earthquake Prediction
The Tangshan earthquake occurred in the Hebei Province of China at 0342hrs on 28 July 1976.
However, the rise is not particularly useful from a predictive point of view, as levels of chloride (aq) and sulphate (aq) did not peak until the end of Feb 1995, decreasing throughout March to their former levels.
While the use of a tilt precursor in predicting the exact timing of earthquakes is unclear from the case study below, it is clear that as a more generalized signal it is useful in identifying a region in which stress and strain is rapidly accumulating.
www.fujitaresearch.com /reports/earthquakes.html   (3303 words)

 LiveScience.com - New Method Promises Better Earthquake Prediction
Predicting major earthquakes, at least the type that produce tsunamis, may get a little easier with knowledge gleaned from a new study of past events.
In general, earthquake prediction is a very challenging task.
In fact, Monday's 8.7-magnitude earthquake was predicted by one group of scientists.
www.livescience.com /forcesofnature/050329_earthquake_prediction.html   (604 words)

 Earthquakes & Earthquake Engneering-Science Tracer Bullet
An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior.
Seismology is the study of earthquakes and of the origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena, the prediction of these phenomena, and the investigation of the structure of the earth's interior by measuring and analyzing natural or artificially generated seismic signals.
Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the study of the behavior of foundations and structures, and of the materials used in their construction in response to earthquakes, as well as techniques that would lessen the effect of earthquakes on such structures.
www.loc.gov /rr/scitech/tracer-bullets/earthquakestb.html   (2170 words)

 LiveScience.com - New Earthquake Warnings: Enough Time to Dive Under a Desk
The magnitude of an earthquake can be roughly predicted as the shaking begins, according to new research that promises to provide several seconds of warning before the brunt of a catastrophe strikes.
The prediction is made possible by the fact that a typical earthquake sends out three different types of waves, which Allen has been studying for the past few years.
Another key to the prediction system is that not everyone sits atop the spot where an earthquake originates, and the waves of an earthquake travel much more slowly than the light-speed communications that could send a warning.
www.livescience.com /forcesofnature/051109_quake_warning.html   (772 words)

 Earthquake prediction by electrical signals recorded on ground surface
The purpose of the site is to present new radical deterministic ideas, on earthquake prediction, in contrast to those stochastic ones that exist today.
It is assumed that basic knowledge such as "what an earthquake is, what its generating mechanism is, electrical field spatial distribution and their existing theories" are known to a certain level, so that it may facilitate the following up of the new ideas to follow.
For a more general approach, of the work done on the topic of earthquake prediction today, the reader is addressed to the papers of Turcotte (1991), Lighthill (1996), Geller (1997) and to Geophysical Journal International, Vol.
www.earthquakeprediction.gr /indexen.htm   (282 words)

 Earthquake prediction in China   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
China is a nation plagued by earthquakes: there are typically tens of moderately severe earthquakes every year.
The Q and D earthquake prediction method is helping to reduce the loss of life and the financial impact of earthquakes in China.
The Q and D method offers an inexpensive and potentially more accurate alternative to other methods of earthquake detection (such as the GPS method which relies on measurements of the slight deformation of the earth's crust that occurs before an earthquake) because of the wide coverage and ready availability of data.
ceos.cnes.fr:8100 /cdrom-00b2/ceos1/casestud/chinaq/chinaq1.htm   (228 words)

 Earthquake Prediction 101 - Links to Other Earthquake Sites
Website provides access to extensive information on earthquakes, earthquake loss prevention, and engineering and economic aspects of recent earthquakes.
A new approach on earthquake prediction is presented, based on the study of precursory electrical signals recorded on ground surface.
Society goals are promotion of research, scientist forum, dissemination of knowledge, and to honour contributions on the area of earthquake technology.
earthquake.nccboston.com /earthquake-prediction-resources.html   (579 words)

 earthquake WARNING research
Fourteen years of investigation have produced models for Charlotte's sensitivity to earthquake precursory signals, which seem to be generated in perovskites, as a result of tectonically induced piezoelectricity.
About 1973, he had invented a device which measured the signals; it could be used to predict earthquakes.
Rauscher and Van Bise called the "Earthquake prediction registry" at the Library of Congress on January 8, 1994 to report impending events likely to occur witin 30 days.
www.earthquakewarning.org   (1255 words)

 Earthquake Prediction   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
In the 1970's, many geologists felt that successful prediction of major earthquakes was just around the corner.
Western scientists seem to be no closer to reliable short-term earthquake prediction (though they have made great strides in long-term earthquake forecasting), although Asian scientists claim far greater success.
If earthquake prediction ever becomes a reality, we must deal with a complex set of social concerns.
www.asn.csus.edu /Geol/Deptwebpage/kusnick/Geology140/Earthquake_prediction.html   (277 words)

 Earthquake prediction in China   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
Provide a three element prediction (earthquake time, location and magnitude) by considering the distribution of active fractures and seismic belts.
These AVHRR images are of Taiwan Island, showing the development of a temperature anomaly that was used to predict the Ms 6.8 Hualian earthquake of 1992.
It was predicted that there would be an Ms 6 earthquake during the period 17 April to 3 May. The actual earthquake occurred on 20 April.
ceos.cnes.fr:8100 /cdrom-00b/ceos1/casestud/chinaq/chinaq2.htm   (530 words)

 Earthquake Prediction: Haicheng, China - 1975
February 4, 1975: Magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the region a few days after evacuation.
It was estimated that the number of fatalities and injuries would have exceeded 150,000 if no earthquake prediction and evacuation had been made.
July 28, 1976: A magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshan, a city with approximately one million inhabitants, without warning.
www.eserc.stonybrook.edu /wise/HSfall2001/QuakePrediction.html   (118 words)

 Seismo-Watch, Earthquake Prediction and Forcasting
Earthquake prediction and forecasting has been a long-term goal in earth sciences.
However, since we are a scientifically founded group, we lean towards scientific methods of establishing validity.
As this segment grows, we hope your understanding will keep pace with the ever changing face of earthquake prediction.
www.seismo-watch.com /EQSERVICES/SeismoFeatures/Prediction.html   (164 words)

 earthquake prediction and control
Through study of the offsets in sedimentary layers near fault zones, it is often possible to determine recurrence intervals of major earthquakes prior to the recorded historical record.
Ground Uplift and Tilting of the ground - Measurements taken in the vicinity of active faults sometimes show that prior to an earthquake the ground is uplifted or tilts due to the swelling of rocks caused by strain building on the fault.
It has been reported that increases in the amount of radon emissions increases prior to some earthquakes.
earthsci.org /processes/struct/equake3/EQPredictionControl.html   (1739 words)

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