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Topic: Eclectic probability

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Probability interpretations

Conditional probability

Bayesian probability theory

Posterior probability

Principle of maximum entropy

Bayesian probability

Probability

Frequentism

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Bayes theorem

Likelihood

Edwin Thompson Jaynes

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Decision theory

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	3quarksdaily
		Nov 21, 2006 12:31:42 AM For a liberally-minded blog, the probability of 0.5 should be adjusted to 0.499, to allow for the finite probability that one of the children may be deeply disatisfied with their current gender identity.
		"I agree with you, the probability is 1/2.
		The only way the probability of a boy-girl family would be 2/3 is if every mother of a boy-girl family walks around with the girl 100% of the time and never walks around with the boy, so any time you see her out walking, you are guaranteed to see the girl rather than the boy.
	3quarksdaily.blogs.com /3quarksdaily/2006/11/answers_to_last.html (16692 words)

	2
		This is, of course, the ultimate aim of any textual critic, but the eclectic method, by using different criteria and by working from a different standpoint, tries to arrive at the true reading, untrammeled by discussion about the weight of ms.
		This kind of "eclecticism" becomes the great leveller—all variants are equals and equally candidates for the original text, regardless of date, residence, lineage, or textual context.
		The practice of pure eclecticism seems to imply either despair that the original wording can be recovered on the basis of external evidence, or an unwillingness to undertake the hard work of reconstructing the history of the text, or both.
	www.esgm.org /ingles/iden2.h.htm (3751 words)

	NCRVE MDS-127 - VI. AN ECLECTIC EXPLANATION
		Probably as a consequence of the pervasive belief that students' abilities and motivations are unlikely to change much as a result of their experiences in high school, schools make curriculum decisions that are designed to accommodate students' abilities and dispositions, not to alter them.
		And, as one would expect, at all three schools a student's probability of taking college-prep courses (those courses that lead to the greatest post-high school opportunities) increased as his or her relative standing in the school's test score distribution increased.
		We saw evidence of the latter in our transcript analyses showing the enhanced probabilities of Asians enrolling in college-preparatory programs and the diminished chances of Latinos enrolling either in college-preparatory programs or in a concentrated vocational curriculum, even when their scores on achievement tests were comparable.
	vocserve.berkeley.edu /Abstracts/MDS-127/MDS-127-VI_.html (8710 words)

	Amazon.com: Customer Reviews: Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
		To frequentist statisticians, probability theory is the study of relative frequencies or of proportions of a population; those are "probabilities".
		Bayesians may assign probability 1/2 to the proposition that there was life on Mars a billion years ago; frequentists will not do that because they cannot say that there was life on Mars a billion years ago in precisely half of all cases -- there are no such "cases".
		It convincingly shows that "statistics", "statistical inference", "Bayesian inference", "probability theory", "maximum entropy methods", and "statistical mechanics" are all parts of a large coherent theory that is the unique consistent extension of logic to propositions that have degrees of plausibility attached to them.
	www.amazon.com /review/product/0521592712?filterBy=addFiveStar (2354 words)

	Probability axioms - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The probability P of some event E, denoted P(E), is defined with respect to a "universe", or sample space Ω, of all possible elementary events in such a way that P must satisfy the Kolmogorov axioms.
		Alternatively, a probability can be interpreted as a measure on a σ-algebra of subsets of the sample space, those subsets being the events, such that the measure of the whole set equals 1.
		If the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B, then A and B are said to be independent.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Probability_axioms (548 words)

	Evidence and Evolution - Cambridge University Press
		The probability that H has in the light of the evidence O is called H’s posterior probability; it is represented by the conditional probability Pr(H │ O); read this as “the probability of H, given O.
		The likelihood of H is the probability that H confers on O, not the probability that O confers on H.
		The probability of a proposition and the probability of its negation sum to one; this is true for prior and also for posterior probabilities.
	www.cambridge.org /catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521692748&ss=exc (3603 words)

	Eclecticism
		"Eclecticism" is a name given to a group of ancient philosophers who, from the existing philosophical beliefs, tried to select the doctrines that seemed to them most reasonable, and out of these constructed a new system (see Diogenes Laertius, 21).
		Eclecticism sought to reach by selection the highest possible degree of probability, in the despair of attaining to what is absolutely true.
		Among the Romans, Cicero, whose cast of mind made him always doubtful and uncertain of his own attitude, was thoroughly eclectic, uniting the Peripatetic, Stoic, and New Academic doctrines, and seeking the probable (illud probabile).
	www.geocities.com /jahsonic/Eclecticism.html (288 words)

	[No title]
		Nevertheless, by placing their emphasis on aspects of this controversy which had not before been emphasized and by utilizing new data which had not before come to light, the proponents of the MT have gained a new hearing for arguments which, in effect, favor the Byzantine text-type which was the basis of the TR.
		The publication of Hort's theories along with the New Testament he and Westcott edited proved to be the watershed for the critical, eclectic text, but adherents of the TR, which that watershed deposed, are almost unanimous in their condemnation of the theories and method he outlined.
		One methodological concern upon which both MT proponents and eclectic critics agree is the importance of reconstructing the history of the text.
	members.aol.com /dvdmoore/html/majtext/txcrmthd.htm (3768 words)

	Autism and Applied Behaviour Analysis (Lovaas) : An Update by Mike Connor
		This being so, there continues to be a particular interest in defining those characteristics of the children and of their familial environment which appear to be consistently associated with a higher probability of positive outcomes, in terms of significant developmental progress, from the implementation of an (intensive) ABA programme.
		The combination of eclectic components do not so readily fit the style of the children in question, and the “jack of all trades ” programme does not provide sufficient focus or continuity or intensity of any one approach.
		She also ponders whether the eclectic approach remains popular because there is no guaranteed success of any one intervention so that there is a kind of hedging of bets, and a hope or belief that a combination of approaches will include something to which there will be a positive response.
	www.mugsy.org /connor74.htm (2941 words)

	Jon Williamson
		It is argued that the objective Bayesian should choose a probability function, from all those that satisfy constraints imposed by background knowledge, that is closest to a particular frequency-induced probability function which generalises the lambda=0 function of Carnap's continuum of inductive methods.
		According to objective Bayesianism, an agent's degrees of belief (i) ought to satisfy the axioms of probability, (ii) ought to satisfy constraints imposed by background knowledge, and (iii) should otherwise be as non-committal as possible (i.e.
		Probability logic, in Dov Gabbay, Ralph Johnson, Hans Jurgen Ohlbach and John Woods (eds)[2002]: Handbook of the Logic of Inference and Argument: The Turn Toward the Practical, Studies in Logic and Practical Reasoning Volume 1, Elsevier, pp.
	www.kent.ac.uk /secl/philosophy/jw (4140 words)

	9friday
		The purpose of this study was to determine the probabilities of attaining varying magnitudes of standardized effect sizes by chance and when protected by a.05-level statistical test.
		Another finding that is consistent across all configurations is that the significance test protected effect size probability is always equal to or less than the unprotected probability, in some cases dramatically so.
		Such a protected effect size indicator could be an answer to the arguments posed by both those who protest against the use of the significance test and those who propose its use in judging the magnitude of an observed effect.
	www.msstate.edu /org/msera/2000/fri00/9f.html (2537 words)

	Deborah Mayo, Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge
		Ever since its origins in the seventeenth century, if we are to believe its historians, mathematical probability has oscillated, not to say equivocated, between two interpretations, between saying how often a given kind of event happens, and saying how much credence we should give a given assertion.
		They are called the "prior probabilities," or even just the "priors." The prize, p(AB), is the "posterior," and regarded as the weight we should give to a hypothesis (A) on the strength of a given piece of evidence (B).
		The probability given by this theory is in every way different --- in meaning, numerical value, and form --- from that of those who would apply to ampliative inference the doctrine of inverse chances [i.e., Bayes's theorem].
	cscs.umich.edu /~crshalizi/reviews/error (3813 words)

	Eclecticism [Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy] (Site not responding. Last check: )
		"Eclecticism" is a name given to a group of ancient philosophers who, from the existing philosophical beliefs, tried to select the doctrines that seemed to them most reasonable, and out of these constructed a new system (see Diogenes Laertius, 21).
		Eclecticism sought to reach by selection the highest possible degree of probability, in the despair of attaining to what is absolutely true.
		In the late period of Greek philosophy there appears an eclectic system consisting of a compromise between the Neo-Pythagoreans and the various Platonic sects.
	www.utm.edu /research/iep/e/eclectic.htm (311 words)

	Feynman’s Ants
		The story can be taken as just an amusing illustration of Feynman’s eclectic curiosity and the lengths to which he would go to satisfy it, but it’s interesting that his analysis of the behavior of ants involves some of the same ideas that were central to his work in theoretical physics.
		The result is that the most probable path (by far) from A to B is the straight path.
		Needless to say, there are better ways of evaluating the probabilities of Markov models, but this crude technique is interesting because of its similarity, at least in form, to the sum of products of transition amplitudes in Feynman’s approach to quantum electrodynamics.
	www.mathpages.com /home/kmath320/kmath320.htm (3256 words)

	Inherent Probability, Transmissional Probability, Transcriptional Probability
		Hort, in §25 of his Introduction, lists factors which might be considered in determining intrinsic probability: "conformity to grammar and congruity to the purport of the rest of the sentence and the larger context; to which may rightly be added congruity to the usual style of the author and to his matter in other passages."
		He explains, (§28) "Transcriptional probability is not directly or properly concerned with the relative excellence of rival readings, but merely with the relative fitness of each for explaining the existence of the others.
		Of Intrinsic Probability, he says in §25-27, "The first impulse in dealing with a variation is usually to lean upon Intrinsic Probability, that is, to consider which of two readings makes the best sense, and to decide between them accordingly....
	www.skypoint.com /~waltzmn/IntrinsicEtAl.html (1142 words)

	Robinson, The case for Byzantine priority
		While all eclectic methods utilize what appear to be sufficient internal and external criteria to provide a convincing and persuasive case for an "original" reading at any given point of variation, strangely lacking is any attempt to defend the resultant sequential text as a transmissional entity.
		Yet modern eclectics continue to reject a lesser argument ex silentio regarding the likelihood of Byzantine propagation in areas outside of Egypt during the early centuries (where archaeological data happen not to be forthcoming), while their own reconstructed text requires a hypothetical transmissional history which transcends the status of the text in all centuries.
		While modern eclectic advocates might argue that all readings beyond the shortest (that preferred by NA) are "pious expansions," such an approach is too simplistic and ignores the transmissional and transcriptional probabilities that point clearly to the Byzantine Textform as the reading from which all the others derived.
	rosetta.reltech.org /TC/vol06/Robinson2001.html (17229 words)

	Interested in Eclectic orientation theoretical? Right place for it! Eclectic Orientation Theoretical!
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		Holliday, eclectic orientation theoretical Sareli Joseph, Jennifer Lisakowski, Michael J. There is a shortage of professors predicted for the near future and an "explosion" of activity at the research level in theoretical biology, so if you prepare now, in high school and college, you will be ready to take advantage of it.
		There is a shortage of professors eclectic orientation theoretical predicted for the near future and an "explosion" of activity at the research level in theoretical biology, so if you prepare now, in high school and college, you will be ready to take advantage of it..
	take34.sitesled.com /cohort/paratha.html (1534 words)

	An Introduction to Bayesian Networks and their Contemporary Applications
		The left-hand term, P(HE,c) is known as the "posterior probability," or the probability of H after considering the effect of E on c.
		It is self-evident that the probabilities of rain on the second day having rained on the first are completely autonomous from the probabilities of rain on the second day having not rained on the first.
		While the probability of rain today and the probability of rain tomorrow are two discrete events (it cannot rain both today and tomorrow at the same time), there is a conditional relationship between them (if it rains today, the lingering weather systems and residual moisture are more likely to result in rain tomorrow).
	www.niedermayer.ca /papers/bayesian/bayes.html (3803 words)

	BAYES’ THEOREM AND LEGAL FACT-FINDING
		I suggest there are two main reasons why legal standards of proof are not primarily matters of mathematical probability, reasons which themselves suggest guidelines for the proper role of mathematical probability in legal fact-finding.
		The two reasons given above suggest that the role for quantitative probabilities should be greatest where their common-sense probative force in particular cases is greatest, and/or where the party with the onus of proof cannot reasonably be expected to produce evidence bearing more directly on the particular case.
		Similarly, they assert (p464n) ‘that in civil cases where liability must be proved on the balance of probabilities the essential elements of liability, e.g., duty of care, breach of duty and loss or damage must each be proved to a higher standard’.
	users.tpg.com.au /raeda/website/probability.htm (6603 words)

	Newman Reader - Essays on Miracles - I-4
		For the Miracles of Scripture, and no other, are unexceptionable, and worthy of a Divine Agent; and Bishop Butler has clearly shown, that, in a practical question, as the divinity of a professed Revelation must be considered, even the weakest reasons are decisive when not counteracted by any opposite arguments [Note 3].
		Whatever {72} evidence, then, is offered for them is entirely available to the proof of their actual occurrence; whereas evidence for the truth of other similar accounts, supposing it to exist, would be first employed in overcoming the objections which attach to them all from their very character, circumstances, or object.
		Or an intimacy with suspicious characters; for instance, Prince Hohenlohe's connection with the Romish Church, and that of Philostratus with the Eclectics, since both the Eclectic and Romish Schools have countenanced the practice of what are called pious frauds [Note 8].
	www.newmanreader.org /works/miracles/essay1/section4.html (4386 words)

	Security Insecurity - CFO.com
		Despite all the costly technology deployed to stave off a computer virus attack, the probability of an infection at any company anywhere is still depressingly high.
		Not to be outdone by the geeks, however, he points out that it conforms to a standard theory of probability called Bayesian inference.
		Defining the probability of each risk separately adds nothing to an overall conception of the woes a company faces.
	www.cfo.com /printable/article.cfm/3006118 (1321 words)

	Interested in Experimental probability theoretical?
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	take34.sitesled.com /bankingproducst/artifacts.html (1626 words)

	Real-World Probability Books: Popular Science
		Half the book is a "Textbook Lite" exposition of the more interesting parts of a college course in probability and statistics: birthday problem and coincidences, law of large numbers, basic odds and strategy at roulette, poker, craps, utility functions, p-values in randomized controlled experiments, opinion polls and the normal curve, genetics, Monty Hall.
		Includes some eclectic history (fire insurance in seventeenth century London is related to Laplace's principles) and a little math (normal curve, Bayes formula).
		Comparatively flamboyant rhetoric is sometimes overwrought ([the weak law of large numbers] is a devourer of data: it must be fed to produce its certainties.
	www.stat.berkeley.edu /users/aldous/157/Books/popular.html (869 words)

	Tales of Statisticians \| Jimmie Savage
		Leonard Jimmie Savage (he reserved "Leonard" for his publications) was probably the most extreme advocate of a Bayesian, or in his word, "personal," approach to probability questions that statistics has ever seen.
		Personal probability was not only useful and interesting to study; it became for him the only sensible approach to probability and statistics.
		These new difficulties with models of probability learning were of course important for Bayesians, and Savage, no slouch, evidently heard the wind in the trees as early as anyone.
	www.umass.edu /wsp/statistics/tales/savage.html (1759 words)

	Borges on Basketball - C.E. Chaffin - Eclectica Magazine v8n3
		In a world of infinite probabilities, where an army of monkeys eventually composes King Lear on typewriters, such exceptions may be allowed.
		To argue that such an achievement is inevitable, given sufficient time, is to extend the presumption of probability to the furthest infinity, while infinity can always choose to defy probability.
		It is probable that some players died of exhaustion before a goal was ever scored, but it is not known whether replacement players were allowed, or how many players from a 12-man team were allowed on the field at the same time.
	www.eclectica.org /v8n3/chaffin_salon.html (2227 words)

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