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	Economic Cycles: Long Cycles and Business Cycles since 1870 \| Book Reviews \| EH.Net
		To the economic historian it seems odd that from time to time economists talk about the end of the business cycle.
		One of the many splendid things about this short book is to knock the "death of the business cycle" story on the head, and indeed go further and accept that cycles will always be present.
		The first and somewhat longer part is on business cycles since 1870, and the second is on long economic fluctuations.
	www.eh.net /bookreviews/library/0179.shtml (688 words)

	Economic Research - Economic Research and Data, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		The Economic Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago conducts policy-relevant research in macroeconomics, microeconomics, financial studies, and regional economics issues.
		The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Economic Research and Consumer and Community Affairs Department in partnership with the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research will co-sponsor the conference, Strategies for Improving Economic Mobility of Workers, on November 15 and 16.
		In this issue of Economic Perspectives, senior economist Rick Mattoon considers the current condition of these pension plans and some strategies that may address the future obligations.
	www.chicagofed.org /economic_research_and_data (642 words)

	Democracy and Economic Cycles
		This was no coincidence: Both were reactions to a widespread economic depression that had begun in the previous decades.
		England reacted to their economic distress with a series of efforts to raise revenue - the Stamp Act, the Townshend Acts, and the Tea Act (among others); the colonists reacted with the Boston Tea Party and the Declaration of Independence.
		Yet as rare as democracy is in history, the concept is immensely compelling to the human spirit, and American expressions of the ideal have been the beacon that has lit the path.
	www.lasthours.com /economiccycles.shtml (2770 words)

	Cycle studies - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Cycles may be due to restorative forces causing repetition as in simple harmonic motion, regularity of motion such as daily, monthly, yearly, and other astronomical cycles, or being affected by something else that has these qualities.
		But astronomers also concern themselves with cycles like the 11-year sunspot cycle, in which the length of one cycle may differ from the next by an amount that cannot be neglected even over a short run of just a few cycles.
		Our understanding of weather cycles being attributable to annual and monthly astronomical motions was extended by Milutin Milankovitch who showed that ice ages were closely related to variations in the Earth's orbital eccentricity, axial tilt and the precession of the equinoxes which have periods of around 100,000 years, 40,000 years and 26,000 years respectively.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Cycles (738 words)

	Business cycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.
		Cycles between 1945 and the 1990s in the United States were generally more restrained and followed political factors, such as fiscal policy and monetary policy.
		Business cycle theory has been most effective in microeconomics where it aids in the preparation of risk management scenarios and timing investment, especially in infrastructural capital that must pay for itself over a long period, and which must fund itself by cashflow in late years.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Economic_cycles (1490 words)

	B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
		The basic economic assumptions are embodied in three alternatives that are designed to provide a reasonable range of effects on Social Security's financial status.
		Economic cycles are not included in the assumptions beyond the first 5 to 10 years of the projection period because they have little effect on the long-range estimates of financial status.
		The subsequent sections 5 through 7 discuss additional economic factors, summarized in table V.B2, that are critical to the projections of the future financial status of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds.
	www.ssa.gov /OACT/TR/TR04/V_economic.html (3849 words)

	Imperialist War and Capitalist Economic Cycles
		However in saying that the shorter cycle "is not eliminated under imperialism" you seem to imply that it is the continuation of the pre-monopoly capitalist economic cycle while the longer cycle is something totally new.
		It is true of course that the period of the short cycle (the time from the beginning of one short cycle to the beginning of the next short cycle) is closer to that of the period of the pre-monopoly cycle, but that is not the essential point.
		The short cycle is based on the more superficial phenomena (such as variations in credit supply, inventory fluctuation, etc.) which existed also in the pre-monopoly cycle and which triggered the more basic variations (such as the collapse of credit and contraction of capital).
	members.aol.com /ScottH9999/essays/econ_cycles.htm (2721 words)

	ipedia.com: Business cycle Article (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		Most observers find that the lengths of cycles (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity.
		Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word "fluctuations" (or similar) instead.
		While most business cycle theory follows Keynes to stress the role of fluctuations of aggregate demand, including the multiplier and accelerator effects, the real business cycle models blame fluctuations in supply.
	www.ipedia.com /business_cycle.html (1287 words)

	Journal of Technology Education - Volume 4, Number 1
		Ayers (1990) identified five long economic cycles since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and concluded that "advances in technology, together with, and exhaustion of, certain natural resources, have combined to bring about a series of coordinated technological transformations that are correlated with waves of economic activity" (p.
		The second cycle, which began in Britain about 1825, was stimulated by technological inventions and improvements that led to the railroad construction boom of 1838-1843 and the accompanying telegraph network.
		Combining the long cycle analysis by Ayers (1990a, 1990b), workforce demographics, and the history of industrial education leads to the conclusion that major philosophical and curricular stress points do indeed coincide with the wave cycles of technological transformation.
	scholar.lib.vt.edu /ejournals/JTE/v4n1/html/baker.html (4045 words)

	Democracy and Economic Cycles
		This was no coincidence: Both were reactions to a widespread economic depression that had begun in the previous decades.
		England reacted to their economic distress with a series of efforts to raise revenue - the Stamp Act, the Townshend Acts, and the Tea Act (among others); the colonists reacted with the Boston Tea Party and the Declaration of Independence.
		Economic downturns have historically represented social and political transition points, times of great difficulty but also of great opportunity.
	www.thomhartmann.com /economiccycles.shtml (2770 words)

	Safe Haven \| Generations and Business Cycles - Part I
		It's economic effect was at least partially induced by the generational war cycle, with its impact on government finances.
		The K-cycle was closely aligned with wars, and a possible mechanism for the cycle was alternating periods (of generational length) of government debt growth and decline associated with war finance.
		Still shorter economic cycles exist, such as the Kuznets cycle of 15-20 years (related to building/real estate valuation cycles), the Juglar cycle of 7-11 years (related to fixed investment) and the Kitchen cycle of about 40 months (related to inventories).
	www.safehaven.com /article-85.htm (5281 words)

	Climate Theories of the Cycle (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		Virtually every economist recognized the existence of strong fluctuations in the general level of economic activity - as exemplified in the debates on General Glut and the Marxian theory of crises.
		The first theorists provided mostly "exogenous cycle" theories: relating economic cycles to other exogenous cycles found in "nature" such as weather which, in turn, might be affected by astral phenomenon.
		Henry L. Moore had one based on weather cycles (1914) and another on the position of the planet Venus (1923).
	homepage.newschool.edu /het/essays/cycle/climate.htm (229 words)

	Safe Haven \| Instant Economic Depression
		Economic booms are the effect of an increase in the money supply and economic bust are the effect of a decrease in the money supply.
		Earlier economic cycles usually topped out and began their busts 10-20 years before the economic cycle were about to bottom.
		The last economic cycle the one we are in right now have been different from earlier cycles.
	www.safehaven.com /article-2637.htm (913 words)

	[No title]
		The openness of the economy, in other words, did not play a significant role in inhibiting partisan economic cycles over the sample period. As expected, there is a high correlation between conditions in the OECD as a whole and conditions in the panel.
		Quarterly economic and political data for these countries was collected for the period 1970-1995, and empirical analysis was conducted for the twenty years 1973-1992.
		In addition, it might be expected that rational partisan cycles would also be smaller in cases where the exchange rate was fixed or the central bank was highly independent, because of the constraint on an independent monetary policy in either case.
	www.yale.edu /leitner/pdf/CPEDLDC-Goodhart.doc (7698 words)

	Financial Sense Editorial "A Forecasting Model..." by Bob Bronson July 2, 2002
		Since there is an obvious interrelationship between short-term business cycles and short-term stock-market cycles, it is useful to discover their common elements in order to develop a theory that explains the underlying connections between them and, in our case, to form meaningful, differentiating forecasts, especially over longer-term horizons.
		This decreased variability is because the nested cycles that comprise it often exhibit the self-correcting mechanism of pattern alternation, whereby shorter cycles tend to be followed by offsetting longer cycles, and vice versa, so that a series of many shorter or many longer cycles do not tend to stack up.
		Finally, pattern alternation in these economic environments explains why every other stock market mania is a super mania with multiple technology bubbles, which always emerge at the end of K-cycle autumns or what some call plateau periods (see endnote 9), that occurred in the late-1850s, the late-1920s, and most recently, the late-1990s.
	www.financialsense.com /editorials/bronson/model.html (4206 words)

	C:\WS_FTP32\BerryK.htm
		He is best known for his theory of economic cycles, which has recently seen a resurgence of interest among western economists as an explanation of the link between technological innovation and economic growth.
		The period of the rising wave of a long cycle is characterized by a far greater number of social upheavals and radical changes to society than the period of the downward wave.
		A third cycle of mergers occurred between 1954 and 1968; this wave was characterized by a movement toward conglomerates.
	aix1.uottawa.ca /~rroberge/berryk.htm (8583 words)

	Encyclopedia: Economic cycles (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		It is important to note that the business cycle exists in Free market or mixed economies, but not in planned economies.
		This is so since, resources of a planned economy are under direct control, so any unutilized resources would be put to use.
		Ed Dewey, who formed The Foundation for the Study of Cycles, studied cycles in everything -- including economic data.
	www.nationmaster.com /encyclopedia/Economic-cycles (1574 words)

	BUSINESS CYCLES & THE 56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		2) the amplitude of economic fluctuations (Zarnowitz, 1992).
		During the rising waves, these intermediate cycles were characterised by brevity of depressions and intensity of upswings, while for the downward waves the opposite applied with intense depressions and shorter periods of growth.
		Although there was some variation from one measure of economic activity to another, Kuznets dated troughs in his cycle at 1878 and 1896 and peaks at 1873, 1892 and 1913.
	www.davidmcminn.com /pages/bcnum56.htm (2432 words)

	spiked-essays \| Essay \| It's capitalism, but not as we know it
		Cycles historically average about six to 10 years, and the most recent low points in economic activity were seen in late 2001 for the USA, in 2002 for Japan and the UK, and early 2003 for much of mainland western Europe.
		The present cycle is shaping up to be similar to the lethargy of the first half of the 1990s, when US economic growth rarely exceeded four percent.
		What has changed is that new or modified routes for economic and business survival have emerged both at the level of the individual firm, and in the macro-economic arena, which have made it possible to curb the destructive aspects of the cycle.
	www.spiked-online.com /Printable/0000000CA864.htm (7485 words)

	KONDRATIEFF WAVES
		That is why they are waves of economic activity, each wave different in kind from the last one, rather than cycles, seen as mechanical fluctuations in attainment of some uniform quantity.
		The start-up period of the next leading sector is also the period of flattening growth rates, declining profits, and severe competition for the previous lead industry; this transition between two leading sectors peak may be known as downswing, and takes the form of generalized slow-down and in the 1930s, of the Great Depression.
		That latter process is often referred to as the hegemonic cycle, or as the long cycle of global politics.
	faculty.washington.edu /modelski/IPEKWAVE.html (2002 words)

	Serebella Contents Economic cycles---Economic development (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		Put the washing in on a warm cycle.
		It uses material from the Wiktionary page "Cycle".
		In equal temperment the sequence repeats every twelve tones, forming a cycle.
	www.serebella.com /encyclopedia/contains-131165-131168-Economic_cycles-Economic_development.html (308 words)

	Small Businesses Can Face Economic Cycles With Confidence
		And even those owners who have weathered numerous business cycles may be faced with new circumstances that confound their otherwise successful instincts and knowledge.
		While there is no crystal ball that accurately predicts the future, small business owners can take a number of steps that will help their enterprises endure the worst of times, and position them for success when conditions inevitably improve.
		Lenders have vast experience in economic cycles, and can advise you on issues specific to your business and industry.
	www.score.org /da_3.html (480 words)

	Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		The determination that the last contraction ended in November 2001 is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
		The November 2001 trough was announced July 17, 2003.
		Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
	www.nber.org /cycles.html (391 words)

	Amazon.com: Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles: Books: Jesús Huerta de Soto (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		Jess Huerta de Soto, professor of economics at the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, has made history with this mammoth and exciting treatise that it has and can again, without inflation, without business cycles, and without the economic instability that has characterized the age of government control.
		It is sweeping, revolutionary, and devastating--not only the most extended elucidation of Austrian business cycle theory to ever appear in print but also a decisive vindication of the Misesian-Rothbardian perspective on money, banking, and the law.
		The result is astonishing: an 875-page masterpiece that utterly demolishes the case for fiat currency and central banking, and shows that these institutions have compromised economic stability and freedom, and, moreover, are intolerable in a free society.
	www.amazon.com /Money-Bank-Credit-Economic-Cycles/dp/0945466390 (1159 words)

	Kondratieff Wave Cycles
		The 50-60 year cycle of catastrophe and renewal had been observed and recorded by the ancient Mayans of Central America and by the ancient Israelites.
		It is also a generational thing as the next cycle of debt buildup and collapse is renewed every 2-3 generations as the previous generation that went through comparable periods dies off.
		The K-wave is the rise and fall of a generation and covers both the social and economic life of the period.
	www.gold-eagle.com /editorials_02/chapmand062902.html (1984 words)

	THE SYMBOLISM THEORY OF ECONOMIC CYCLES (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-05)
		At some point, a threshold is crossed, and the reputation of that tag, symbol, brand name is tarnished, leading to economic collapse.
		With good education and business awareness, this process of losing quality may be slower than in earlier recessions, but it is the frailty of human nature that guarantees that this temptation will work itself through, and lead to the next recession.
		It is therefore a question of human nature that leads to economic cycles, not this or that technology.
	www.tryagain.com /humcivil/recsther.htm (183 words)

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