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Topic: Economic forecasting

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	Principles for Teaching Economic Forecasting (IREE)
		Since an economic forecasting course is not taught in the majority of economics departments (Hanke and Weigand, 1984), economics faculties may have many questions regarding what should be covered in such a course and how to teach this type of course.
		An economic forecasting class should not be taught (as is sometimes done in statistics classes) where students learn methods but fail to see how these methods are actually used in a firm.
		A hands-on project will allow a student to be exposed to a forecasting situation and relevant variables (experience), to relate their forecasting knowledge to the forecasting situation (reflection), to formulate the forecasting problem as a forecasting model to be solved (abstraction), and to try different forecasting solutions to see which is most effective (experimentation).
	www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk /iree/i2/loomiscox.htm (3883 words)

	The Difficult Art of Economic Forecasting - Finance & Development - December 1996
		Revision of economic forecasts is not an uncommon occurrence, however, as those who have tried to predict the paths of business cycles--particularly the turning points--know all too well.
		Errors generated by a good forecast procedure should be unbiased and serially uncorrelated (i.e., errors should not be related systematically over time), and have no other property indicating that there is information in the data that could be used to improve the forecasts--in other words, the forecasts should be efficient.
		The average forecast errors for 197794 for output growth and inflation differ considerably across regions of the developing world but are relatively large in comparison with their average absolute actual values.
	www.worldbank.org /fandd/english/1296/articles/0141296.htm (1449 words)

	FRB: Speech, Meyer -- Economic forecasting -- June 3, 1998
		Forecasting based on structural models, my preferred approach, is not the only way to go and diversity in our profession, as in others, is to be valued, not just tolerated.
		A model-based forecast essentially has the ability to defend itself, as long as the model is not so add factored that the fundamental paradigm is lost in the process.
		Many forecasters would prefer to rely on their interpretation of what various FOMC members say, or what one especially significant member of the FOMC says or does not say (and I am definitely not talking about myself), in setting the funds rate in the initial quarter.
	www.federalreserve.gov /boarddocs/speeches/1998/19980603.htm (4543 words)

	Modelling, Forecasting and Policy in the Evolving Macro-economy
		The fundamental concepts of forecasting were formalized, with unexpected consequences: examples include the potential dominance in forecasting of non-causal variables over causal, of 1-step forecasts by multi-step, known parameter values by estimated, and the value-added of intercept corrections and differencing transforms, inducing more robust forecasts (partially rehabilitating the former).
		Forecasting agencies in both governmental and private sectors have responded rapidly to our findings, and have successfully tested the resulting theory on their own data and models: see Eitrheim, Husebø and Nymoen (1999).
		In examining the role of congruence in forecasting, we formalized encompassing interpretations of the weak, strong, and super exogeneity hypotheses of Engle, Hendry and Richard (1983), and examined the relationship between exogeneity tests and forecast encompassing tests.
	www.economics.ox.ac.uk /research/hendry/hendryeef.html (7273 words)

	University at Albany Department of Economics - Economics Forecasting Program
		A New Concentration for the M.A. in Economics
		Economic forecasting is a rapidly developing field with wide applicability in business and government.
		The increasing complexity of markets is fueling the demand for professionals who possess an understanding of the forecasting needs of organizations, the econometric tools to solve forecasting problems, and the necessary computer skills to generate optimal forecasts.
	www.albany.edu /econ/forecasting (163 words)

	Toolbox - Economic Development - Forecasting Methods
		The analysis was at a broad level that did not distinguish how the economic growth would be affected by differences in the highway location and level of use.
		Economic inputs include expenditures on construction and operation, income from employment, local expenditures from additional passengers, and relocation of airline headquarters.
		Compared to an economic simulation model such as REMI, they are much more limited in their economic detail, as their primary purpose is to forecast land use changes rather than overall regional economic effects.
	www.fhwa.dot.gov /planning/toolbox/economic_forecasting.htm (1036 words)

	Graziadio Business Report - Forecast
		While current economic forecasts may still seem to some to be mystically derived, today's economic forecasters tend to rely more on data, computer models, and economic theories rather than divine inspiration although, given the accuracy of their forecasts compared to Joseph's, one might question the change in tactics.
		A long-range forecast would be for more than one or two years and is used to plan for the production for new products or the expansion of production capacity, or in the consideration of long-term financing.
		Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted moving average in which the new forecast is a weighted sum of the actual observed sales or other variable in the current period and the weighted forecast of that variable for the period.
	gbr.pepperdine.edu /001/forecast.html (1876 words)

	Economic Forecasting
		Economic forecasts derive from models - usually of the aggregate national or global economy, but sometimes of parts of those economies: particular industrial sectors, regions of the world or even single products or firms.
		Forecasts for the macroeconomy are published regularly by academic institutions, thinktanks, governments, central banks and international organizations like the OECD and the IMF.
		Furthermore, although a forecast of next quarter's GDP or even next year's earnings per share may be wrong, the kind of forecasting I do - and really that Abby Cohen does too - is to try to define the basic environment - inflationary or not, fast growth or not, competitive or not, and so on.
	www.deanlebaron.com /book/ultimate/chapters/econ_forecast.html (1754 words)

	UNIVERSITY SENATE
		The Department of Economics is proposing the introduction of an Advanced Certificate (Graduate Certificate) in Economic Forecasting beginning the fall semester of 2004.
		The Certificate builds on the Economics Department’s historical strength in econometric forecasting and on its unique relationship with numerous New York State and Federal agencies and with private business organizations that are actively engaged in the emerging field of economic forecasting.
		Thad Mirer is Associate Professor of Economics. He is the author of Economic Statistics and Econometrics, which covers these subjects at an introductory level. His empirical research has been in the areas of labor economics and the distribution of income, and he is currently interested in Social Security and the behavior of retired persons.
	www.albany.edu /senate/0405-05_Economic_Forecasting_Cert.htm (1634 words)

	The Forecasting Project: Economic & Business Research Center : The Eller College of Management at the University of ...
		Is a community-sponsored research program of the Eller College of Management providing the Arizona community with economic forecasts and information on economic, demographic and business trends in the State, its metro areas, and the Western region.
		Forecasting Project research is widely disseminated to the general public via the Economic and Business Research Center.
		In-depth forecasts and a comprehensive examination of business conditions four times a year in roundtable sessions with Eller College economists, sponsors and invited speakers.
	ebr.eller.arizona.edu /forecasts/forecastingproject.aspx (237 words)

	Forecasting and Consulting
		Applied Economics Ltd - Economic consulting firm based in London specialising in applying microeconomic and econometric analysis to practical problems, particularly in the application of EU and UK antitrust and merger laws.
		Forecasting Principles - The site develops a set of principles to guide forecasting for problems in management, operations research, and the social sciences.
		Global Insight - Provides economic forecasts of over 150 countries, industry analysis of more than 120 sectors, a large repository of data, and advisory services to companies, governments and organizations from around the world.
	www.inomics.com /cgi/econdir?path=Science/Social_Sciences/Economics/Forecasting_and_Consulting (1229 words)

	Document
		Forecasts for both variables are prepared by the Fed staff before each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which uses these forecasts to help set economic policy.
		In the case of output forecasting, the Romers suggest that the Fed's advantage may in fact be, at least in part, a result of better access to data since the Fed manages the collection of information used to compute the index of industrial production.
		His forecasting success seems to come not from special ingredients, but from a finely tuned sense of how ordinary ingredients should be combined.
	www.sims.berkeley.edu /~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2002-11-21.html (1016 words)

	Principles of Forecasting
		Forecasting Audit - The audit allows you to identify weak areas of your forecasting system.
		The abstract submission deadline for the International Symposium on Forecasting on June 24-27 in New York is now March 16.
		For the first nine years, the Forecasting Principles site was sponsored by the Marketing Department of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
	www.forecastingprinciples.com (823 words)

	EconEdLink \| EconomicsMinute \| Economic Forecasting: An Internet WebQuest
		Economics is often called the "science of decision making." The decisions that economists analyze range from personal decisions such as how big a pizza to order or whether to buy or lease a new car to the decisions the federal government makes about things like the size of our military.
		You and your partners have just received a letter from a business woman in Australia who is interested in moving her guava jelly business to the United States.
		She has asked you to prepare a report on the expected economic health of the United States economy for the next year.
	www.econedlink.org /lessons/index.cfm?lesson=EM49 (557 words)

	Elliott D. Pollack & Company (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-19)
		Elliott D. Pollack and Company was retained by the Maricopa County Internal Audit Department to undertake a review of economic forecasting practices and techniques used by the County’s Office of Management and Budget.
		The purpose of this audit was to (1) review the County’s current forecasting practices and comment on forecasting accuracy, reliability, assumptions and economic models and (2) provide recommendations for improvement and modification of the existing forecasting efforts.
		Forecasting models were developed for each sector based on historical construction activity and projections for population and employment growth.
	www.elliottpollack.com /economic_forecasting.asp (310 words)

	Forecasting: For Researchers
		It covers any papers that are part of RePEc (www.repec.org) and concern forecasting including time series forecasting, judgemental forecasting and the application of forecasting to all areas.
		In a paper titled, "The Impact of Institutional Change on Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study of Budget Forecasting in Washington State" (Full Text) (expanded summary), Elaine Deschamps (2004) explored the relationship between organizational change and forecast accuracy by analyzing the budget forecasting process in the state of Washington.
		If you are also consulting, and if you are a member of the International Institute of Forecasters, you can add yourself to the list of consultants on forecasting (which appears on the Practitioners page).
	www.forecastingprinciples.com /researchers.html (1159 words)

	Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series - The MIT Press (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-19)
		In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory.
		After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting, they look at the implications for causal modeling, present a taxonomy of forecast errors, and delineate the sources of forecast failure.
		Their results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research, model formulation, the testing of economic hypotheses, and model-based policy analyses.
	mitpress.mit.edu /catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=8674 (191 words)

	Paul Samuelson / Economic Forecasting and Science
		If prediction is the ultimate aim of all science, then we forecasters ought to award ourselves the palm for accomplishment, bravery, or rashness.
		We are the end-product of Darwinian evolution and the payoff for all scientific study of economics.
		Around the country, students are grinding out doctoral theses by the use of history, statistics, and theory -- merely to enable us to reduce the error in our next year's forecast of GNP from $10 billion down to $9 billin.
	www.cooperativeindividualism.org /samuelson_forecasting.html (338 words)

	Amazon.com: Companion to Economic Forecasting (Blackwell Companions to Contemporary Econommics): Books: Michael ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-19)
		Forecasting is a practical venture, so many of the chapters are aimed at practitioners and nonspecialists.This book surveys a field that has expanded rapidly in recent years.
		He is co-author with David Hendry of Forecasting Economic Time Series (1998) and Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series (1999), and has published in academic journals on a variety of time-series econometrics topics, including econometric modeling, forecast evaluation, interval and density forecasts, nonlinear time-series models, seasonality, and bootstrapping.
		David F. Hendry, Professor of Economics at Oxford University, is a past President and Honorary Vice-President of the Royal Economic Society, Fellow of the British Academy and Econometric Society, and a Foreign Honorary Member of both the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Economic Association.
	www.amazon.com /Companion-Forecasting-Companions-Contemporary-Econommics/dp/0631215697 (1246 words)

	Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico (CKF), Guestbook
		is the Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico, and is dedicated to the analysis, modeling and forecasting of the Mexican economy.
		It is committed to preserve and to extend the Lawrence Klein’s school of applied econometrics, to the case of Mexico.
		Our analysis and forecasts are well supported by a long experience and training in economics in both public and private sectors.
	home.att.net /~ckf_forecasting/wsb/CKF_Promo_Webl_Eng2.htm (341 words)

	Angelou Economics - Services [Economic Analysis & Forecasting]
		Economic analysis answers questions for companies that help them determine new locations and market potential.
		Economic analysis and forecasting provides a solid methodology to back your toughest decisions.
		The firm’s forecasts have proven to be of the most accurate in the country.
	www.angeloueconomics.com /serv_ecoanalysis.html (214 words)

	Business and Economic Forecasting MSc - Kingston University London (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-19)
		In addition, it equips its graduates with the ability to identify forecasting methods and appreciate their limitations and to present their forecasting reports.
		In an uncertain environment the success of a business or economic policy depends on the ability of managers to foresee and prepare for the future.
		This innovative course is intended for those keen to advance their careers as economic/business modellers and forecasters in industry, financial services, consultancies or government; and those whose careers in related areas would benefit from training in modelling and forecasting methods.
	fass.kingston.ac.uk /postgraduate/economic_forecasting/index.shtml (163 words)

	The Insider's Guide to Economic Forecasting
		To help Inc. readers round out their knowledge and forecasting abilities, I have assembled a guide of lesser-known but important economic signposts used by some of the nation's savviest insiders, including some I used myself while serving as President Clinton's top economic adviser.
		Though Greenspan is renowned for finding significance in economic minutiae, it's also no secret that he often speaks with the chief executive officers of major companies to get a sense of how badly they are lusting after the latest in machine tools.
		Harvard economics professor Lawrence Katz, one of the nation's foremost labor economists and former chief economist at the Department of Labor, always advised me when I was at the White House to keep an eye on the temporary labor market.
	www.inc.com /magazine/20030801/forecasting.html (3292 words)

	About the Director of the Economic Forecasting Center
		These forecasts are regularly published and presented to business executives and the media at the Center's popular, well-respected quarterly forecasting conferences.
		Dhawan is known for his ability to articulate complex economic issues in terms that are extremely relevant to the business community.
		Dhawan earned a B.A. in Economics, with honors, from St. Stephen's College in India, a Master's degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics at the Delhi University in India, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California Los Angeles.
	robinson.gsu.edu /efc/director/index.html (592 words)

	Products: U.S. and Regional Economic Forecasting Service
		We forecast the most important economic indicators including interest rates, inflation, employment and unemployment, housing starts, motor vehicle sales, and other consumer and capital spending, net exports and the value of the dollar, personal and corporate income, and taxes.
		With nearly 40 years of macroeconomic forecasting experience, Dr. Evans, together with his AEG team, will ensure that this forecasting service is accurate and reliable.
		So users can effortlessly change forecasts for a given industry or put in their own industry assumptions (for example, production of fabricated metal products depends on housing, nonresidential construction, consumer purchases of household durables, and other macro variables, but not vice versa).
	americaneconomics.com /forecast.html (1120 words)

	Oxford Economics
		Oxford Economics' Global Macro Model provides a rigorous framework for analysing the impact of alternative scenarios and major threats to economies.
		Global M&A is forecast to rise further in the next year or so, surpassing the record US$4.06 trillion in deals announced last year, thereafter there may be some natural slowdown as economic growth eases and some of the ‘froth’ of the last few years begins to fade.
		Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting.
	www.oef.com (489 words)

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