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Topic: Exit poll

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	Exit poll - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for.
		Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as "parallel vote tabulation", as a check against and rough indicator of the degree of fraud in an election.
		Widespread criticism of exit polling has occurred in cases, especially in the United States of America, where exit-poll results have appeared and/or have provided a basis for projecting winners before all real polls have closed, thereby possibly influencing election results.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Exit_poll (345 words)

	FrontPage magazine.com :: Exit Poll Sabotage by Dick Morris
		The mistaken exit polls infiltrated all three networks and the cable news outlets and had a chilling effect on the coverage of election night.
		Since their polls, if biased or cooked, represented an attempt to use the public airwaves to reduce voter turnout, they should have to explain their errors in a very public and perhaps official forum.
		Exit polls cannot be as wrong across the board as they were on election night.
	www.frontpagemag.com /Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=15821 (616 words)

	The Seattle Times: Politics: How did exit polls start avalanche of inaccuracy?
		The impact of the exit polls — interviews of voters after they cast their ballots — was significant.
		Tuesday's exit polls were a major shift from several pre-election public polls that showed Bush with a small but definite lead over Kerry of 1 to 3 percentage points.
		Generally, exit polls are used to get at the demographics behind an election, to quantify where candidates got support and to break the vote down by age, race, gender and other factors.
	seattletimes.nwsource.com /html/politics/2002081763_exitpolls04.html (1022 words)

	California Recall Election Exit Poll
		Results presented here are from an exit poll based on interviews with 3814 randomly selected voters leaving polling places across California today, as well a sample of 400 absentee voters interviewed by phone prior to the election.
		The exit poll was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Washington Post and other news organizations.
		Exit poll data are based on voter samples and do not necessarily reflect final vote tallies.
	www.washingtonpost.com /wp-srv/politics/recallexitpoll.html (386 words)

	Stolen Election (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Exit polls were a red flag in Ukraine, and many statistical experts have used the exit polls from our election to demonstrate a high likelihood that there was some funny business on November 2nd.
		The media has had over 6 weeks to "analyze" the exit polls and releasing the numbers would not prevent them from continuing their analysis in any way.
		Their refusal to release the exit polls shows us categorically that there is a concerted effort on behalf of the major media outlets to consciously prevent the information from getting out.
	www.solarbus.org /stealyourelection/articles/1222-media.html (1216 words)

	USATODAY.com - Report outlines exit poll problems (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		NEW YORK (AP) — Two firms that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations reported Wednesday that they found a number of problems with the way the polls were carried out last year, resulting in estimates that overstated John Kerry's share of the vote.
		Exit poll material is used to help make projections of winners and to supplement the vote count with an analysis of why people voted as they did.
		The polling firms said they believed the exit poll errors were not the result of the selection of precincts where the interviews took place or the analysis of the data once it was received.
	www.usatoday.com /news/washington/2005-01-19-exit-polls_x.htm?csp=34 (947 words)

	John Allen Paulos - Exit Polls
		Since exit polls historically have been quite accurate (there is no question about likely voters, for example) and the differences as likely to have been in one candidate's favor as the other's, we're confronted with the question of what caused them.
		Besides, the exit polls divide people along demographic lines, which is one of their primary functions, and weight repsonses accordingly if certain groups (e.g., fls, males, 40-50 year olds) are over- or under-represented in the sample.
		Another possible explanation for the discrepancy between the final tallies and the exit polls is that a fraction of the Bush voters were ashamed of their vote for him and lied to or avoided the exit pollsters.
	www.math.temple.edu /~paulos/exit.html (971 words)

	Frequently Asked Questions: Election Day (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		In an exit poll, a random selection of voters leaving a polling place are asked how they voted and what issues most influenced their decision.
		The exit polls were conducted by Voter News Service (VNS), a private company formed to help TV networks quickly report and explain election results.
		The differences between the exit poll percentages and the actual percentages the candidates received ranged from 0% to 2.6%.
	www.failureisimpossible.com /floridafollies/faq/electionday_FAQ.htm (736 words)

	Surveying the Damage (washingtonpost.com)
		That's because the 2004 election may have finally stripped exit polling of its reputation as the crown jewel of political surveys, somehow immune from the myriad problems that affect telephone polls and other types of public opinion surveys.
		Exit poll data from Pennsylvania, which was held back for more than an hour, showed Kerry ahead by nine percentage points.
		That suggests to some that exit polls are more likely to misbehave when their insights are valued most -- in high-turnout, high-interest elections such as 1992 and this year.
	www.washingtonpost.com /wp-dyn/articles/A64906-2004Nov20.html (1251 words)

	MediaChannel.org - A Global Network of More Than 1,000 Media Issues Groups (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		NEW YORK, November 5, 2004 -- After relying on misleading exit poll data to announce the wrong winner in Campaign 2000 and after failing to produce any data at all in the 2002 mid-term elections, the television news divisions promised a new and improved exit poll system this year.
		They promised not to jump to early conclusions from the exit polls and to use them instead for their proper purpose: to provide insight into voter motivation, decision making and ideology.
		The networks' big exit poll failure was not in using their data too early but in not asking the proper questions in the first place.
	www.mediachannel.org /views/dissector/affalert287.shtml (794 words)

	National Election Archive Project - Home
		The discrepancies between election results and exit poll results in the 2004 presidential race have not been explained and are consistent with significant vote count errors.
		This discredited hypothesis was proposed by the exit pollsters and used to dismiss the exit polls.
		Exit polls have been used for years to detect corruption of official vote tallies - most recently in Ukraine.
	uscountvotes.org (821 words)

	US Election: Democracy in Question
		Zogby was concerned about the difference between some of the exit polls (surveys of individuals who have just cast ballots) and the official vote counts.
		Highlighting both the expected accuracy of exit polls and the significant disparity that Kerry's defeat illustrated, Republican consultant, commentator and Fox-TV News regular Dick Morris wrote an article, 'Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage', suggesting a pollster conspiracy to swing the election for Kerry.
		"Exit polls are almost never wrong," argued Morris, and in 10 of the 11 key states they had predicted significantly fewer votes for Republican President George W Bush than he was eventually credited with.
	www.commondreams.org /headlines04/1118-11.htm (1358 words)

	Wired News: Blogs Blamed for Exit Poll Fiasco
		The exit poll data was delivered at several points Tuesday to ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press by the National Election Pool, a company formed in the wake of the networks' blown calls on election night 2000.
		The NEP had enough concerns that its early exit polls were skewing too heavily toward Kerry that it held a conference call with news organizations mid-afternoon urging caution in how that information was used.
		Fox News Channel correspondents bluntly addressed the polls early on election night, at about the time Bush campaign officials were alerting reporters that their analysis of the actual vote count showed they were doing better than the exit polls indicated.
	www.wired.com /news/politics/0,1283,65589,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_6 (1045 words)

	Fixed - The Stealing Of Another Election
		Analysis of the polling data vs actual data and voting systems supports the hypothesis that evoting may be to blame in the discrepancies.
		If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.
		Kerry leads in the exit polls by a clear margin, but is still behind in the reported results.
	www.rense.com /general59/steI.HTM (1028 words)

	Something is rotten in Denmark: Exit poll data in former Soviet Republic of Georgia vs. USA
		First, he was able to sample 2004 exit poll data that was not meant to be released directly to the public and was available through a computer glitch that allowed him to view “uncalibrated data that had not yet been corrected to conform to the announced counted vote tallies.
		Let us examine the exit poll predictions versus tallied votes in each of these battleground states combining the male and female vote, weighted for their percentage in the electorate by state.
		While the NYT cites a report issued by pollsters that debunked the possibility that their exit polls are correct and the vote count wrong, they provide no data to support an error in exit polling data.
	onlinejournal.com /evoting/111704DeHart/111704dehart.html (1529 words)

	USATODAY.com - Congressman wants 'raw' exit poll data (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Most polling experts who have studied exit polls doubt the data would be of use.
		The polling firms that produced the exit poll data have declined a similar request from Conyers.
		Exit polls attempt to measure voters' preferences and attitudes as they leave voting places.
	www.usatoday.com /news/washington/2004-12-09-polls-usat_x.htm (569 words)

	CBS News \| Blogging As Typing, Not Journalism \| November 8, 2004 15:30:22
		Let me tell you a few things about "exit polls" as one who was there from the time they were invented and then watched them develop through the nine presidential campaigns I covered.
		Experienced journalists treat exit polls like hand grenades with the pin pulled; they are unstable and dangerous.
		If you are standing in the main election night studio when your network’s polling experts start discussing the significance of a particular state poll, you the reporter will hear about three words out of one hundred that you will understand.
	www.cbsnews.com /stories/2004/11/08/opinion/main654285.shtml (1174 words)

	StolenElection.net - Stolen Election by Mark R. Elsis
		The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is +/- 3% for the national exit poll and +/- 4% for the 50 state exit polls (1).
		The difference between the Ohio exit poll and the final results are 6.5 percentage points.
		The exit polls surveyed 2,846 voters in Florida and 1,963 in Ohio (12).
	stolenelection.net (759 words)

	Blatant Exit Poll - Final Count Disparities
		The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts.
		They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures.
		These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error.
	rense.com /general59/blatantexitpollfinal.htm (210 words)

	Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
		Exit polls by their nature - they ask voters how they actually voted rather than about their intentions - are typically considered highly accurate.
		Always keep in mind that this 4pm exit poll data is the early sweep, skewed for women (58% to 42%) and therefore towards John Kerry/Democrats.
		The argument has also been made that the early (morning/afternoon) exit poll sweeps were gender weighted 58% women/42% men, thereby invalidating the exit polls in general.
	www.scoop.co.nz /mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm (1854 words)

	Exit Zone - The official excuses for the bad exit poll numbers don't cut it. By Jack Shafer
		The skewed exit poll data didn't cause any of the National Election Pool owners (CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press) who commissioned the Edison/Mitofsky data to incorrectly project a winner in any contest.
		As for the Edison/Mitofsky concession that Kerry voters might have distorted exit polls in his favor with their eagerness to complete a post-ballot questionnaire, this generic excuse was also used in the 1996 Arizona Republican presidential primary.
		But after the experience of 2004, nobody is going to believe that raw exit polls are any better at predicting elections than conventional political pollsters, some of whom called the presidential election right, and some of whom called it wrong.
	www.slate.com /id/2109310 (1100 words)

	Voting Machines
		While polls are snapshots and imperfect, the fact that so many polls were all off and in the same direction and over a long stretch of time is interesting.
		And I would like to see the exit poll data for the Senate races in these states as it was reported on the night of the election, which may or may not be the same as what is currently available on the CNN site.
		Some time in the middle of the night, the exit poll figures were altered to match the subsequently reported actual tally, with no explanation, or even an indication that a change had been made.
	thesquanderer.com /votingmachines.html (4044 words)

	CNN.com - Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology - Jan 19, 2005
		The discrepancies stemmed from problems in interviewing voters at the 1,480 randomly chosen precincts where exit pollsters were stationed, not from how those precincts were selected or the way the data were processed, according to the 75-page report.
		From 1990 to 2002, exit polls were conducted by Voter News Service (VNS), whose exit polls in 2000 led to the networks' decisions to declare Al Gore the winner in Florida.
		In 2002, VNS was unable to deliver any exit poll data to the networks, resulting in the decision to disband it.
	www.cnn.com /2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/exit.polls/index.html (796 words)

	Mitofsky International Election and Public Opinion Research
		Mitofsky has directed exit polls and quick counts since 1967 for almost 3,000 electoral contests in United States, Mexico, Russia and the Philippines.
		In 1994, MI conducted the only exit poll and quick count for the Mexican presidential election reported by the country's broadcast industry.
		He conducted the first exit polls for CBS in 1967, and developed the projection and analysis system used successfully by CBS and Voter News Service.
	www.mitofskyinternational.com /company.htm (547 words)

	How About Those Exit Polls Favoring Kerry? -- 11/03/2004
		He said the Bush camp started to doubt the poll results early on, when exit polls in Florida said the Hispanic population had shrunk -- when the opposite was true.
		The exit poll results are supposed to be secret -- available only to subscribing media outlets -- but on Tuesday night, the results were available on the Internet.
		The 2004 election was the first test of new exit polling, called the National Election Pool, which was supposed to be more accurate than exit polls used in 2000.
	tinyurl.com /4yx5g (461 words)

	A Corrupted Election -- In These Times
		The report states that the difference between exit polls and official tallies was far too great to be explained by chance (“sampling error”), and that a systematic bias is implicated.
		The exit polls themselves are a strong indicator of a corrupted election.
		The thesis of the Mitofsky/Edison exit poll report and the headlines that it generated are curiously detached from the numbers in the report itself.
	www.inthesetimes.com /site/main/article/1970 (1676 words)

	Online NewsHour Report: Expert Discusses What Went Wrong with Exit Polls -- November 5, 2004
		Exit polls come under scrutiny after the 2004 presidential election.
		The exit poll numbers were corrected later, but some news organizations operated most of the day on an expectation of a Kerry victory.
		WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, Terry, an exit poll starts with a sample of precincts in a state, and then, at each of those sample precincts, we have an interviewer that interviews every third or every fifth voter as that voter exits the building where they've just voted.
	www.pbs.org /newshour/bb/politics/july-dec04/exitpolls_11-05.html (1030 words)

	Prominent Statisticians Refute 'Explanation' of 2004 U.S. Exit Poll Discrepancies in New Edison/Mitofsky Report and ...
		Their study does not support claims made by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International that exit poll errors were to blame for the unprecedented 5.5% discrepancy between exit polls and official 2004 election results.
		The hypothesis that the discrepancy between the exit polls and election results is due to errors in the official election tally is a coherent theory that must be explored,” said statistician Josh Mitteldorf.
		The statisticians go on to note that precincts with hand-counted paper ballots showed no statistical discrepancy between the exit polls and the official results, but for other voting technologies, the overall discrepancy was far larger than the polls’ margin of error.
	www.emediawire.com /releases/2005/1/emw203331.htm (585 words)

	Azerbaijan Parliamentary Exit Poll Conducted By Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International
		The exit polls will be conducted in all contested districts for the Renaissance Associates of Switzerland and will be made available to the media soon after the polls close.
		The companies were chosen by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press to conduct exit polls and collect vote returns to project and analyze results for broadcast for every major presidential primary and the general election in 2004.
		Mitofsky International and CESSI have done exit polls for all contested national elections in Russia since the referenda of 1993.
	www.exit-poll.net (1171 words)

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