| | HESS - Abstract (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-19) |
 | | Abstract: The widely-used hydrological procedures for calculating events with T-year return periods from data that follow a Gumbel distribution assume that the data sequence from which the Gumbel distribution is fitted remains stationary in time. |
 | | The paper describes an alternative model in which the Gumbel distribution has a (possibly) time-variant mean, the time-trend in mean value being determined, for the present purpose, by a single parameter β estimated by Maximum Likelihood (ML). |
 | | Simulated samples from a standard Gumbel distribution were given superimposed linear trends of different magnitudes, and the power of each of three trend-testing procedures (Maximum Likelihood, Linear Regression, and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test) were compared. |
| www.copernicus.org /EGU/hess/6/1/17.htm?FrameEngine=false (232 words) |