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Topic: Hindsight bias

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	Hindsight Bias - Medical Malpractice News, Volume 6, Issue 7
		The term hindsight bias was coined in 1975 and the first research topics were historical events and psychotherapy case histories.
		The phenomenon of hindsight bias creates a common problem with medical malpractice litigation arising from misdiagnosis: other treating physicians - the colleagues of the defendant physician - tend to be uncritical of the faulty diagnosis.
		A more realistic alternative to retrospective review, in the face of hindsight bias, is for the medical expert to submit the radiographs or slides to a small group of colleagues for blind rescreening.
	www.medlit.info /hindsight.htm (847 words)

	CJBS 27:1 - Predictions, Postdictions, and Hindsight Bias (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
		Because the hindsight bias effect suggests that when subjects receive outcome information, they perceive that outcome as inevitable, if postdictive phrasing of the estimation question appears to provide an outcome, then the hindsight bias should be identifiable in the postdiction condition.
		Although hindsight bias is often proclaimed to be inevitable and robust, the meta-analysis performed by Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) demonstrated that the effect is small.
		While hindsight bias is consistently referred to as a robust, influential response pattern (e.g., Fischhoff, 1976), closer examination reveals that the question format (stimulus type) may be a moderating factor, and yet is rarely controlled for.
	www.cpa.ca /cjbsnew/1995/april/cannon.html (5780 words)

	Hindsight bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Hindsight bias, sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect, is the inclination to see past events as being predictable and reasonable to expect, perhaps because they are more available than possible outcomes which did not occur.
		Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine.
		Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as vaticinium ex eventu.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Hindsight_bias (346 words)

	[No title]
		But, H&H argue that the hindsight bias is not “just another error of human information processing.” (191) Rather, they claim it is a by-product of two adaptations: updating knowledge in accord with new information, and using fast and frugal heuristics on this new knowledge.
		Hindsight bias: “This tendency to believe falsely—after the fact—that one would have predicted the outcome of an event is known as hindsight bias.” (193) --The 2 experiments cited on p.
		Hindsight bias is a result of reconstructing the decision-making procedure using different cue values (as a result of information of the correct outcome).
	comp.uark.edu /~efunkho/RationalityNotes7.doc (690 words)

	eMJA: Hindsight bias in medicolegal expert reports
		There is evidence that hindsight bias, which may cause the expert to simplify, trivialise and criticise retrospectively the decisions of the treating doctor, is inevitable when the expert knows there has been an adverse outcome.
		4 Hindsight bias is not deliberate, but is induced by what one researcher describes as "creeping determinism", a process propelled by subconscious desires on the part of the expert to appear knowledgeable, intelligent and unambiguous.
		Bias is increased when reviewers know there has been an adverse outcome, and the degree of bias is proportional to the severity of the outcome.
	www.mja.com.au /public/issues/176_06_180302/hug10592.html (1670 words)

	Hindsight Bias - Not Just A Convenient Memory Enhancer
		According to new research, hindsight bias -- the way our impression of how we acted or would have acted changes when we learn the outcome of an event -- is actually a by-product of a cognitive mechanism that allows us to unclutter our minds by discarding inaccurate information and embracing that which is correct.
		Hindsight bias can occur when people make a judgment or choice and are later asked to recall their judgment.
		Rather than thinking of hindsight bias as a flaw of human cognition, as previous research suggests, Hoffrage, et al.
	www.apa.org /releases/hindsight.html (823 words)

	Hindsight bias
		This is the tendency of people with the benefit of hindsight, to falsely believe they would have predicted the outcome of an event.
		This affects probability elicitation because once outcomes are observed, the assessor may assume that they are the only outcomes that could have happened and underestimate the uncertainty in the outcomes that could have happened, but didn't.
		In hindsight we are anchored, and cannot truly reconstruct our foresightful state of mind.
	www.dcs.qmw.ac.uk /~norman/BBNs/Hindsight_bias.htm (121 words)

	Hindsight Bias: The Role of Perfect Memory and Meta-Cognitions
		The hindsight bias is the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event correctly, once the outcome is known.
		The present paper addresses the ongoing debate whether the hindsight bias is due to memory impairment or biased reconstruction.
		In experiment 3, again in line with the bias reconstruction approach, experimentally induced assumptions about how close to or distant from the outcome information the initial judgements had been, moderated the magnitude of the hindsight bias.
	ideas.repec.org /p/xrs/sfbmaa/99-35.html (400 words)

	The Soul Illusion
		In hindsight, the anger was temporary, and its cause trivial.
		The failure to appreciate that perception is state dependent is part of the Soul Illusion.
		Despite the continually changing bias, we operate with the feeling of certainty that our current local appraisal is valid and warrants action.
	www.alcohol-drug.com /fundamen.htm (1460 words)

	Science Watch
		According to the model, hindsight bias occurs during "reconstruction"--when people attempt to reconstruct their previous judgment about an event's outcome.
		Hindsight bias crops up during the reconstruction of an outcome, Hoffrage, Hertwig and Gigerenzer believe.
		The RAFT model predicts that hindsight bias should be stronger in hypothetical situations because people must always reconstruct the outcome--and indeed, this is what several researchers have often found in their studies.
	www.apa.org /monitor/may00/sw.html (1334 words)

	Latest Breaking Health News & Information: Applesforhealth.com
		Hindsight bias is good for memory, researchers say.
		Hindsight bias is the way we change our view of how we acted after we learn the outcome of an event.
		Researcher Ulrich Hoffrage said hindsight bias can occur when people make a choice and are later asked to recall what it was.
	www.applesforhealth.com /hindsight2.html (218 words)

	'Hindsight bias' could hide real lessons of Columbia accident report, expert says
		Woods provided technical input on decision-making, organizational factors, and hindsight bias to the CAIB during its investigation.
		Woods gave an example of the dangers of hindsight bias, citing some text from the CAIB report.
		Just as the CAIB worked hard to overcome hindsight bias and find the organizational factors that led to the accident, Woods feels that readers of the report will also need to overcome their own hindsight.
	www.eurekalert.org /pub_releases/2003-09/osu-bc090203.php (581 words)

	Bradfield, A
		Introduction: When people are given outcome information and then asked what they would have predicted the outcome to be if not given the information, it has been shown that they will overestimate their abilities to determine the outcome (the hypothetical paradigm).
		Fischhoff (1977) explained hindsight bias as an automatic phenomenon, whereby memory is altered without the conscious knowledge of the individual, replacing previous memories of the event.
		Discussion: The current expands on the hindsight bias effect in that even when the element of misremembering previous judgments is removed people are still susceptible to a large number of memory distortions.
	www.uark.edu /misc/lampinen/read/f05/bradfield05.htm (765 words)

	Essay Answers
		For each of the two biases: (a) explain what the bias is, including an example [5 pts.], (b) explain why it’s a bias (that is, why it violates a normative principle) [3 pts.], and (c) describe a descriptive/psychological theory that could explain why this bias occurs.
		Hindsight bias (a) is an error in probability judgment such that after knowing the actual outcome in a situation, the person says that she would have assigned a very high likelihood to that event even if she had not known it was the actual outcome.
		Framing bias (a) is the tendency for people to express systematically different preferences for two choice problems that present equivalent information but with different wordings.
	www.rci.rutgers.edu /~gbc/health/essay3.htm (2747 words)

	Jiskha Homework Help - Social Studies: Psychology: "I Knew It All Along!"
		The hindsight bias also tends to cause problems among students - even psychology students in college.
		For example, after the creation and acceptance of the typewriter, with their hindsight, people tend to see its invention and success as inevitable.
		Hindsight makes outcomes seem as if they could have been easily foreseen.
	www.jiskha.com /social_studies/psychology/hindsight_bias.html (764 words)

	The Fire of Genius » Slaying the hindsight bogey
		Love it or hate it, the Federal Circuit’s “suggestion test” approach to proving obviousness is a guard against the hindsight bias.
		The SG contends, in its amicus brief on the merits, that the hindsight bias problem is no worse in patent law than in other branches of law, and that awareness of the risk is itself a sufficient guard against the bias.
		Retrospective analysis is not unique to patent law, but regularly arises in a wide variety of contexts, including the determination of the competency of counsel in criminal proceedings, reasonable use of force by police officers, and probable cause.
	www.thefireofgenius.com /2006/08/28/slaying-the-hindsight-bogey (837 words)

	Investors Hub - Rambus (RMBS) Post #11475
		Because of this hindsight bias, individuals routinely overestimate the ex ante predictability of events after they have occurred." Mandel's paper is crucial reading for anyone not blinded by their own bias to hindsight.
		The hindsight effect is familiar to all—consider the widespread adages “hindsight is 20/20”; or “Monday morning quarterback.” These sayings are based on a now well-proven fact: once outcome information is known, people are cognitively incapable of preventing that information from influencing their understanding of past events.
		The hindsight bias has been confirmed in over one-hundred studies of both lay and expert judgment in both laboratory and real world settings in many fields.
	www.investorshub.com /boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14182293 (439 words)

	The Mahablog » Hindsight Bias?
		Claiming hindsight bias is a bucket of crap given all the protest marches - millions of people worldwide - that predated the war.
		If they don’t get the concept wrong to begin with (they managed to get “hindsight bias” correct this time), their eyes are too glassed over to see anything of any significance when they look in the mirror, if they even glance that way.
		It is not we who have hindsight bias, it’s the news media and all the pundits who in the last six months have been talking all, “Gee, if only we had known then what we know now.” Makes you want to smack them.
	www.mahablog.com /2006/10/02/hindsight-bias (2429 words)

	The State \| 10/02/2006 \| Hindsight bias affects Iraq war opponents
		One of the most systematic errors in human perception is what psychologists call hindsight bias — the feeling, after an event happens, that we knew all along it was going to happen.
		While the hindsight bias is obviously self-serving, it might also be how the brain makes sense of past events, Arkes said.
		While hindsight bias in the context of the Iraq war was real, the psychologist cautioned in an interview against misuse of the idea — the argument by many supporters of the Bush administration that it was impossible to know ahead of time how the war would turn out.
	www.thestate.com /mld/thestate/news/nation/15664565.htm (610 words)

	Hindsight Bias -- Berlin 175 (3): 597 -- American Journal of Roentgenology
		bias is an extremely compelling influence in the population
		Hindsight bias is not supposed to exert influence on the determination
		Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.
	www.ajronline.org /cgi/content/full/175/3/597 (3686 words)

	Patently-O: Patent Law Blog: Hindsight Bias
		First, it is hard to deny that hindsight bias of some degree exists in the nonobviousness analysis, just as it exists in other areas of the law (the negligence analysis, for a non-patent example).
		The latter is not a problem of hindsight bias, but indicates the problem of properly allocating the burden of producing evidence on the obviousness of an invention.
		The results were that the suggestion test did not mitigate the hindsight bias for the inventions tested, but also that it does not lead to excess conclusions that an invention is non-obvious (contrary to the central charge of its critics).
	www.patentlyo.com /patent/2006/11/hindsight_bias.html (12390 words)

	Iraq War Naysayers May Have Hindsight Bias - washingtonpost.com
		While the hindsight bias is obviously self-serving, it may also be how the brain makes sense of past events, Arkes said.
		In yet another experiment, Baruch Fischhoff, a psychologist at Carnegie Mellon University and a pioneer in the field of hindsight bias, found that Americans who made estimates about their danger after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks recalled having made much lower estimates of risk a year later, after their fears failed to materialize.
		While hindsight bias in the context of the Iraq war was real, the psychologist cautioned in an interview against misuse of the idea -- the argument by many supporters of the Bush administration that it was impossible to know ahead of time how the war would turn out.
	www.washingtonpost.com /wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/01/AR2006100100784_pf.html (806 words)

	Hindsight Bias
		Hindsight bias can be reduced when people stop to think carefully about the causes of the surprise.
		It is very helpful for those using hindsight bias.
		If you want someone to believe something, engineer a slightly disturbing surprise such that they will have to change their beliefs (and even their memories) in order explain it.
	changingminds.org /explanations/theories/hindsight_bias.htm (249 words)

	Hindsight bias, outcome knowledge and adaptive learning -- Henriksen and Kaplan 12 (Supplement 2): 46 -- Quality and ...
		Hindsight bias is a pervasive phenomenon that cuts across a
		Hindsight bias is not simply a matter of lofty academic curiosity,
		Hindsight bias: an impediment to accurate probability estimation in clinicopathologic conferences.
	qshc.bmj.com /cgi/content/full/12/suppl_2/ii46 (4331 words)

	Iraq War Naysayers May Have Hindsight Bias (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-20)
		Hindsight in this case can be converted into lessons learned - or as usually happens - lessons unlearned or lessons learned again.
		Maybe instead of examining "hindsight bias," they ought to exam media bias as the above misrepresentation of the NIE findings shows they're in the grip of.
		And by the way, they might in discussing the "I told you so's" they think the NIE OPINION (because that's all an NIE is is someone's opinion of what intelligence findings are concluding and not established, quantifiable, verifiable fact) allows liberals discuss the "I told you so's" the NIE report allows the Bush administration, i.e.
	freerepublic.com /focus/f-news/1712367/posts (1649 words)

	Outcome Bias -- Berlin 183 (3): 557 -- American Journal of Roentgenology
		The terms hindsight bias and outcome bias are similar in that
		Neither hindsight bias nor outcome bias is supposed to exert
		hindsight bias and outcome bias tend to assume greater influence
	www.ajronline.org /cgi/content/full/183/3/557 (3002 words)

	Edge: LEARNING TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
		Our track record in predicting those events is dismal; yet by some mechanism called the hindsight bias we think that we understand them.
		There is another bias: they believe that the probabilities that apply to others do not apply to them.
		One aspect of this left-column bias is well-known by empirical psychologists called the Belief in the Law of Small Numbers — how we tend to overestimate how much data we have to reach a conclusion.
	www.edge.org /3rd_culture/taleb04/taleb_indexx.html (4186 words)

	Altering Frequency Estimates of Hindsight Bias in Others Via Stereotyping: Asians as a Model Minority - Psi Chi
		White college students made frequency estimates of hindsight bias for 1 of 3 different ethnic groups--Asians, Blacks, and Whites--with regard to a sporting event.
		The bias was estimated to be less for Asians than for both Whites and Blacks, with no significant difference between the latter two groups.
		Future research should be aimed at the social psychology of hindsight bias, because overestimating its presence in others may lead us to minimize its prominence in our everyday thinking.
	www.psichi.org /pubs/articles/article_414.asp (174 words)

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