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Topic: Hubbert peak


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Oil

In the News (Mon 16 Nov 09)

  
  Hubbert's Peak, The Peak
Although Hubbert was widely criticized by some oil experts and economists, in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true.
The 100 year period when most of the world's oil is being discovered became known as "Hubbert's Peak".
The peak stands in contrast to the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.
www.princeton.edu /hubbert/the-peak.html   (264 words)

  
  Encyclopedia: Hubbert peak
The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion.
The Hubbert peak theory is most often applied to oil but is applicable to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil.
However, it should be noted that other events that occurred after Hubbert's prediction may have delayed the peak, especially the 1973 energy crisis, in which a decreased supply of oil resulted in a shortage, and ultimately less consumption.
www.nationmaster.com /encyclopedia/Hubbert-peak   (11793 words)

  
 Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hubbert's theory is that the same calculations that successfully predicted the peak in oil production in the USA would apply to other circumstances, such as the peak in worldwide oil production.
Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy.
Some petroleum economists, such as Michael Lynch, argue [6] that the Hubbert curve with a sharp peak is inapplicable globally due to the differences in oil reserves, political and military leverage, demand, and trade partnerships between countries and regions.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Hubbert_peak   (4027 words)

  
 Science Fair Projects - Hubbert Peak
The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil and other fossil fuels production and depletion.
The Hubbert peak theory, while controversial, is increasingly influencing policy makers both within the oil industry and government.
If a Hubbert Peak occurs and oil becomes a progressively more scarce commodity, it is reasonable to expect the possibility of massive political and economic tension between its principal producers and consumers.
www.all-science-fair-projects.com /science_fair_projects_encyclopedia/Hubbert_peak   (5480 words)

  
 Hubbert Curve   (Site not responding. Last check: )
King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve.
The Hubbert curve closely resembles the shape of, but is different from, the probability density function of the normal distribution.
According to this model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate will thus be followed by a gradual decline of oil production, to nothing.
www.wikiverse.org /hubbert-curve   (252 words)

  
 Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.
Hubbert's 1956 analysis tried out two different educated guesses for the amount of U.S. oil that would eventually be discovered and produced by conventional means: 150 billion and 200 billion barrels.
Hubbert's 1956 method leads to a peak year of 2001 for the 1.8-trillion-barrel estimate and a peak year of 2003 or 2004 for 2.1 trillion barrels.
Hubbert's prediction was fully confirmed in the spring of 1971.
press.princeton.edu /chapters/s7121.html   (3486 words)

  
 Hubbert Peak
The Hubbert Peak theory, also known as the oil peak or peak oil theory, is an influential economic theory regarding the long-term macroeconomic availability of oil, attributed to the geophysicist M.
According to his model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate was forecast, to be followed by a gradual decline of oil production to nothing.
Applying this model to the entire United States, Hubbert accurately forecast that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak in the late 1960s or early 1970s (based respectively on a total production of 150 billion barrels [24 billion m³] or 200 billion barrels [32 billion m³]).
www.sciencedaily.com /encyclopedia/hubbert_peak_1   (1067 words)

  
 Hubbert peak - The Jiggies Reference Guide   (Site not responding. Last check: )
The theory of the Hubbert peak or oil peak is due to the geophysicist M.
Hubbert made use of a mathematical model of the rate of petroleum extraction.
Some of the geologists known as the pessimists forecast the peak in the range of the present to 2010, while those known as the optimists forecast in the range of 2010 to 2020, giving more time for worldwide renewable energy research, and political adjustments.
www.jiggies.com /reference/Hubbert_peak   (627 words)

  
 M. King Hubbert • The Coming Global Oil Crisis
King Hubbert, geophysicist, is well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion.
Hubbert wrote "Two Intellectual Systems: Matter-energy and the Monetary Culture," the subject of a seminar he taught, or participated in, at MIT Energy Laboratory.
Less well known were Hubbert's studies since 1926 on the rate of industrial growth and of mineral and energy resources and their significance in the evolution of the world's present technological civilization.
www.oilcrisis.com /hubbert   (792 words)

  
 King Hubbert : The peak oil
King Hubbert is especially known for "Hubbert's curve" and his works on the peak of production of the petroleum, I shall limit myself in these lines to these two subjects, however afterward I shall approach the other subjects of King Hubbert's reflection.
King Hubbert was born on October 5, 1903 to San Saba in Texas, he obtains his doctorate in Sciences in the university of Chicago in 1937, where he studies in parallel geology, physics and mathematics.
King Hubbert is the pioneer of searches on the peak of production generally and of some petroleum in particular, he brought answers which he knew how to defend with courage during years in spite of the fact that he is in contrast all the surrounding areas of time.
www.dani2989.com /matiere1/hubbertpeakoilgb.htm   (901 words)

  
 M. King Hubbert   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 - October 11, 1989) was a geophysicist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston Texas.
At the 1956 meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio Texas, Hubbert made the prediction that oil production would peak in the United States in the late 1960s to the early 1970s.
The curve he used in his analysis is known as the Hubbert curve and the peak of the curve is known as the Hubbert peak.
www.serebella.com /encyclopedia/article-M._King_Hubbert.html   (501 words)

  
 Dr. M. King Hubbert - dKosopedia
Hubbert made several contributions to geophysics, including a mathematical demonstration that rock in the Earth's crust, because it is under immense pressure in large areas, should exhibit plasticity, similar to clay.
Hubbert is most well-known for his studies on the capacities of oil fields and natural gas reserves.
The curve he used in his analysis is known as the Hubbert curve, and the peak of the curve is known as the Hubbert peak.
www.dkosopedia.com /wiki/Dr._M._King_Hubbert   (587 words)

  
 Hubbert peak   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Hubbert made use of a mathematical model of the rate of petroleum extraction.According to this model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oilwell discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate was forecast to be followed by a gradual decline of oil production tonothing.
Some of the geologists known as the pessimists forecast the peakin the range of the present to 2010, while those known as the optimists forecast in therange of 2010 to 2020, giving more time for worldwide renewableenergy research, and political adjustments.
Some people believe that if the Hubbert model is accurate, there are drastic implications for human culture and technologicalsociety, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock.
www.therfcc.org /hubbert-peak-98249.html   (564 words)

  
 Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory
After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport and process one barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that one barrel of oil.
The Hubbert peak theory is most often applied to oil but is applicable to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil.
If a Hubbert Peak occurs and oil becomes a progressively more scarce commodity, it is reasonable to expect the possibility of massive political and economic tension between its principal producers and consumers.
www.unexplainable.net /artman/publish/article_1589.shtml   (4829 words)

  
 Hubbert Peak   (Site not responding. Last check: )
In 1956 Hubbert began to use a model to predict the rate of petroleum extraction.
According to his model the of production of oil is determined by the rate of oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in oil extraction rate was forecast to be by a gradual decline of oil production nothing.
Others believe that the rise in oil world drive the replacement of oil with power sources such as nuclear energy with the possible introduction of a economy to replace the current oil distribution and the replacement of oil as a feedstock with better use of other hydrocarbons as coal.
www.freeglossary.com /Hubbert_peak   (1101 words)

  
 Hubbert's Peak Theory Points to Dwindling Oil Supply (Exxon Mobil, Chevron. Statoil, Royal Dutch Shell) | SmartMoney.com
King Hubbert, a prickly but brilliant Shell geologist who went to a meeting of his colleagues from the petroleum industry in 1956 and told them that they had 15 good years left, at most, before U.S. oil production peaked and began a rapid decline.
Hubbert's paper marshaled the historical record of mature U.S. deposits, mathematical modeling and geological facts to posit a distinctive bell curve for the available reserves of fossil fuel on any scale, with exponential growth on the left as extraction ramps up, and a symmetrical decline on the right as the dinosaur mush is depleted.
ASPO reckons we passed a 'regular' oil peak in 2005, to be followed by an 'all oils' peak in 2010 and a natural gas peak in 2020.
www.smartmoney.com /decode/index.cfm?story=20070216   (1336 words)

  
 Hubbert curve : Hubbert peak   (Site not responding. Last check: )
The Hubbert curve closely resembles but is different from the normal distribution.
According to this model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate will be followed by a gradual decline of oil production to nothing.
Based on his model, Hubbert predicted (accurately) that, following from the peak of well discovery in 1948, oil production in the contiguous United States would peak in the late 1960s.
www.eurofreehost.com /hu/Hubbert_peak.html   (316 words)

  
 Exploring the Issue of  Hydrocarbon Depletion
Peak Oil : Any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.
If we apply Hubbert's Peak to world oil production we estimate that approximately half of all oil that will be recovered, has been recovered, and oil production may reach a peak in the near future, or perhaps already has.
Peaking is generally, also, a relatively quick transition to a relatively serious decline at least on a basin by basin basis.
www.peakoil.com /sample   (515 words)

  
 Peak oil primer and links | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
Hubbert's methods, as well as other methodologies, have been used to make various projections about the global oil peak, with results ranging from 'already peaked', to the very optimistic 2035.
Many of the official sources of data used to model oil peak such as OPEC figures, oil company reports, and the USGS discovery projections, upon which the international energy agencies base their own reports, can be shown to be frighteningly unreliable.
Peak oil author Richard Heinberg uses the metaphor that whereas fossil fuels are akin to a massive inheritance, one spent rather drunkenly, renewables are much more like a hard won energy wage.
www.energybulletin.net /primer.php   (3034 words)

  
 Mark P. Silverman » Reviews » Hubbert's Peak
After all, as Deffeyes, who was himself a close colleague of Hubbert during the time he too worked for Shell, writes: "We scientists don't like to admit it, but we often guess at the answer and then gather up some numbers to support the guess.
Numerical predictions of time and quantity may change, but none of this changes Hubbert's fundamental conclusion that an effectively nonrenewable resource ultimately will be exhausted at a rate that depends in some way on the amount that is produced and the amount that remains to be produced.
We are over Hubbert's peak and we still do not have a sensible, coherent, effective national energy policy to avert the day of reckoning when no sum of dollars will be able to buy what is no longer available for purchase.
www.trincoll.edu /~silverma/reviews_commentary/hubberts_peak.html   (1597 words)

  
 [No title]
The midway point of cumulative extraction tends to occur approximately at the extraction peak, at which point optimists typically argue that the cup is still half full while pessimists typically argue that the cup is half empty.
Hubbert found little support for his thesis in the geological community, but eventually his assessment hit the peak year squarely on the nose.
Campbell, from Ireland, and Laherrère, from France, together produced this seminal piece, which is to the issue of the global Hubbert Peak as the Congressional presentation by NASA's James Hansen was to the issue of the greenhouse effect in 1988.
quasar.physik.unibas.ch /~fisker/401/oil/hubbweba.html   (2863 words)

  
 THE HUBBERT CURVE : ITS STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Hubbert did not publish a formula for the graph, and it is likely that in those before computers he simply drew the graph by hand (with templates) and calculated the area below the curve to obtain the Ultimate.
A trend-line (Excel) and a Hubbert curve are plotted on the basis of a peak of 3.5 Gb/a in 1938 and a half life of 70 years.
Using Hubbert modelling and the inflection point in 1992 when maximum growth occurred when the population was 255 millions, the peak could be forecasted at 380 millions (1.5*255).
dieoff.org /page191.htm   (4798 words)

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