
	Where results make sense

Topic: Hubbert curve

Related Topics

Hubbert peak

List of curves

Bathtub curve

ELO rating system

Asteroid light curve

Tautochrone

Energy crisis

Oil price increases of 2004

Logistic distribution

Light curve

Growth curve

Generalised logistic curve

Learning curve

Petroleum

Crude oil

In the News (Sat 14 Nov 09)

Northern Trust

Marvin Harrison

Peter Chernin

Gary Locke

Match Play

Penelope Cruz

Mickey Rourke

AR Rahman

Danny Boyle

Hugh Jackman

	Hubbert curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic function.
		The Hubbert curve has some resemblance to, but is different from, the shape of the probability density function of the normal distribution.
		The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses article by Jean Laherrère.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Hubbert_curve (153 words)

	Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Hubbert assumed that after oil reserves are discovered, oil production at first increases approximately exponentially, as wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed.
		Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal" [82] and reasoned that the peak production for metals such as copper, tin, lead, zinc and others would occur in the time frame of decades and iron in the time frame of two centuries like coal.
		Noting that the Hubbert curve seems to be applicable to any resource that can be harvested much faster than it can be replaced, at least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization on fisheries, notably the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependant price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Hubbert_peak (6886 words)

	Dr. M. King Hubbert - dKosopedia
		Hubbert made several contributions to geophysics, including a mathematical demonstration that rock in the Earth's crust, because it is under immense pressure in large areas, should exhibit plasticity, similar to clay.
		Hubbert is most well-known for his studies on the capacities of oil fields and natural gas reserves.
		The curve he used in his analysis is known as the Hubbert curve, and the peak of the curve is known as the Hubbert peak.
	www.dkosopedia.com /wiki/Dr._M._King_Hubbert (587 words)

	King Hubbert : The peak oil (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		King Hubbert is especially known for "Hubbert's curve" and his works on the peak of production of the petroleum, I shall limit myself in these lines to these two subjects, however afterward I shall approach the other subjects of King Hubbert's reflection.
		King Hubbert was born on October 5, 1903 to San Saba in Texas, he obtains his doctorate in Sciences in the university of Chicago in 1937, where he studies in parallel geology, physics and mathematics.
		King Hubbert is the pioneer of searches on the peak of production generally and of some petroleum in particular, he brought answers which he knew how to defend with courage during years in spite of the fact that he is in contrast all the surrounding areas of time.
	www.dani2989.com /matiere1/hubbertpeakoilgb.htm (905 words)

	M. King Hubbert • Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
		King Hubbert, geophysicist, is well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion.
		Hubbert wrote "Two Intellectual Systems: Matter-energy and the Monetary Culture," the subject of a seminar he taught, or participated in, at MIT Energy Laboratory.
		Less well known were Hubbert's studies since 1926 on the rate of industrial growth and of mineral and energy resources and their significance in the evolution of the world's present technological civilization.
	www.hubbertpeak.com /hubbert (792 words)

	Oil and Gas Investor: Editor's Comment (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		Yet, Hubbert’s contributions to the industry included seminal research papers on the formation of geological structures, the theory of petroleum migration and the influence of fluid pressure on the movement of faults.
		Hubbert’s views logically suggested America would soon have to make a transition from oil surpluses to oil deficits, from cheap oil to expensive oil, and that this new universe of tightening supplies would be quite different from what we were then experiencing (and are still experiencing now).
		Hubbert’s projections, at midcentury, were embodied in a rising line of conventional U.S. oil production that eventually was to curve over the top (1970), leading to a long and inevitable descent on the other side.
	www.oilandgasinvestor.com /comment/1010708661.html (896 words)

	ASPO - PORTUGAL
		The Hubbert peak, also known as "peak oil", is the result of a mathemical model that concerns the long-term rate of conventional petroleum and other fossil fuel extraction and depletion.
		Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of petroleum extraction which predicted that the total amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve.
		Hubbert's original formulations applied to a "theoretical, unconstrained province" and that the model must be adjusted if significant artificial impedances, such as political or environmental regulations are in effect.
	www.aspo-portugal.net /English/hubbertpeak.asp (963 words)

	Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
		Since these curves embody just about all that is essential in our knowledge of the production of energy from the fossil fuels on the world, a national, and a state scale, it is worth our attention to study them briefly.
		In Figure 13 is shown the corresponding curve for the state of Illinois, which is distinguished by having two widely separated and well-defined maxima, the second considerably larger than the first.
		In Figure 20, the curve has been drawn on the assumption that the maximum rate of production will be about two and one-half times the present rate, which places the date of the peak at about the year 2000.
	www.energybulletin.net /13630.html (8355 words)

	Hubbert peak theory - TvWiki, the free encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		Hubbert's theory is that the same calculations that successfully predicted the peak in oil production in the USA would apply to other circumstances, such as the peak in worldwide oil production.
		Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy.
		Some petroleum economists, such as Michael Lynch, argue [6] that the Hubbert curve with a sharp peak is inapplicable globally due to the differences in oil reserves, political and military leverage, demand, and trade partnerships between countries and regions.
	www.tvwiki.tv /wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory (3995 words)

	Deinonychus antirrhopus: The Hubbert Curve (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		The Hubbert curve is one of the main things that doom & gloomers hang their hats on.
		The Hubbert curve was put forward by M. King Hubbert and he predicted that (contiguous) U.S. production would peak in the 1960's based on production of 150 billion barrels of oil, and the 1970's based on 200 billion barrels of oil.
		Given the Hubbert curves complete inability to factor in politicial and economice effects, I don't think it should be considered a reliable model in predicting the peak.
	www.steveverdon.com /archives/energyeconomics/001399.html (2451 words)

	Deinonychus antirrhopus: Peak Energy: A Reply to Kevin Drum, Part 2 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		Hubbert's idea, which later became known as the Hubbert curve, was first outlined in this paper.
		Hubbert is silent on that point since he and all of those who have followed him have no way of actually knowing this.
		Further, Hubbert himself was not a pessimist when it came to energy outlook, which is really what the topic should be (after all we don't like oil because it is oil, but because is a cheap and useful source of energy).
	www.steveverdon.com /archives/002264.html (3077 words)

	Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		The Hubbert peak theory is most often applied to oil but is applicable to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil.
		It argues that the Hubbert model is fundamentally correct, and that the world faces the start of oil depletion around 2007 -- potentially leading to a major global crisis in the early 21st century.
		If a Hubbert Peak occurs and oil becomes a progressively more scarce commodity, it is reasonable to expect the possibility of massive political and economic tension between its principal producers and consumers.
	www.unexplainable.net /artman/publish/printer_1589.shtml (4771 words)

	A Reply by John Attarian - ASPO Ireland (Peak Oil) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		Hubbert was simply trying to estimate approximate resource levels, and for the US Lower 48, he thought a bell curve would be the most appropriate form.
		It was only later that the Hubbert curve came to be seen as explanatory in and of itself, that is, geology requires that production should follow such a curve.
		The bell-shaped curve is simply a stylized, idealized representation of the phenomenon of rise, peak, and decline of output, amenable to mathematical expression and analysis, useful as a pedagogical and forecasting device--in fact, the sort of thing economists do all the time.
	www.peakoil.ie /newsletters/254 (1134 words)

	The Peak in U.S. Coal Production
		It is a bell shaped mathematical curve very similar to the normal distribution curve and is named after the now famous geophysicist M. King Hubbert who used it to predict that oil production in the 48 contiguous states would peak in the early 1970's.
		If we look at figure 6, it might seem that the Hubbert curve does not closely match the historic data but that is because of the variable nature of historic growth.
		The Hubbert model relies heavily on assuming that future growth will be similar to past growth and this may be correct in that the Hubbert model predicts an average annual growth rate for U.S. coal of only 1.2% between 2000 and 2032.
	www.fromthewilderness.com /free/ww3/052504_coal_peak.html (2194 words)

	Hubbert's Peak - the mathematics behind it
		King Hubbert's early work was founded on somewhat complex differential equations.
		Hubbert's theory is simply the assumption that the relation between P/Q and Q follows a straight line, all the rest is pure mathematics.
		The lowermost equation is a logistic curve that stands a bell shape.
	wolf.readinglitho.co.uk /subpages/hubbertmaths/hubbertmaths.html (1120 words)

	THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL
		In about 1950, Hubbert realized that the trajectory of oil discovery in the continental United States was going to be a classic bell-shaped curve, for the decades from 1910 to 1970, in billions of barrels per year (see figure 1, below).
		Hubbert realized that using what he knew in 1950 about the history of discoveries, along with what was already known about consumption, and a little mathematics, he should be able to predict that second bell-shaped curve.
		Nevertheless, the central idea of the Hubbert Curve is certainly correct: the supply of any natural resource invariably rises from zero to a maximum point, and then it falls forever.
	pr.caltech.edu /periodicals/CaltechNews/articles/v38/oil.html (3465 words)

	Future world oil supplies -- Ivanhoe on Hubbert
		While global information for predicting this "event" is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous curve that predicted the U.S. oil production peak, there are indications that most of the large exploration targets have been found, at the same time that the world's population is exploding.
		This simple "area under the curve and scale" should be included, as a control, on any theoretical analyses of potential oil reserves/production.
		It is reluctantly concluded that there is strong evidence that the restricted Hubbert Curve for the world's total EUR of oil may first peak about the year 2000, Fig.
	www.sbs.utexas.edu /resource/dieofforg/page85.htm (2639 words)

	Plan War and the Hubbert Oil Curve, An Interview with Richard Heinberg \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News ...
		King Hubbert was a petroleum geologist whose life spanned most of the twentieth century.
		Hubbert realized that, for any given oil province, when about half the oil is gone production tends to peak.
		When Hubbert applied his methods to the United States, which was the world’s foremost oil producing nation for many decades, he determined that the halfway point of extraction would occur around 1970.
	energybulletin.net /newswire.php?id=73 (3203 words)

	It’s the Oil, Stupid (Hubbert's Curve and World War III)
		Marion King Hubbert was a geologist who, in 1949, presented a curve predicting the rise and fall of oil production in the conterminous United States.
		Following the success of Hubbert’s curve in predicting the year of peak production in the United States, Hubbert’s methodology (with slight modification over the years) has been used to predict the rise and fall of global oil production.
		Hubbert’s curve for the United States was somewhat symmetrical, i.e., the decline in oil production after the peak rather mirrored the rise in production before the peak.
	www.foundationwebsite.org /ItsTheOil.htm (9679 words)

	Victor A. Canto on Oil & Marion King Hubbert on NRO Financial
		It was geologist Marion King Hubbert who argued that the life of any oil well resembles a bell-shaped curve; that production increases to a peak by the time half of the oil is pumped.
		Given the Saudi’s forecasts on existing fields and the fact that discoveries of new fields are few and far between, the Hubbert theory neatly points to a secular decline in the supply of oil, making it easy to argue, under some general conditions, that oil prices may rise even further.
		Hubbert may have been right in the 1970s, but his curve failed in the 1980s when energy prices came tumbling down.
	www.nationalreview.com /nrof_canto/canto200406041037.asp (1508 words)

	Apocalypse, Not
		King Hubbert was a petroleum geologist who published papers in 1956(1) and 1974(2) showing that US and world oil production should follow a simple bell curve.
		Hubbert’s US peak prediction was accurate, and the decline initially followed his curve.
		We’ve already shifted the curve in the US, by doubling gas mileage and slowing our increase in oil use from 6% a year to 0.25%.
	www.patternliteracy.com /apocalypse,not.html (2421 words)

	Peak Oil News & Message Boards >> Forums >> Depletion Modeling >> How Reliable is the Hubbert Linearization Method?
		The Hubbert linearization seems to be a good tool to estimate the growth rate even on immature production data (we have 90% of chance to estimate K with less than 10% of error when only 30% of the URR has been produced).
		It seems that the properties of the Hubbert linearization are quite general and are independent of the function considered as long as it is a positive function.
		The simulation using the sum of a hubbert curve and a constant amplitude cosine wave is useful to reach the conclusion that the linearization process narrows along time, but, when comparing with real models, it´s possible to conclude that this simulation doesn´t narrow as fast as the real ones.
	www.peakoil.com /fortopic16260.html (2859 words)

	The Oil Drum \| Another Way of Looking at CERA (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-09-10)
		The reason such curves for individual fields look peculiar when plotted from year one is that in year one the ratio is 100% by definition, and we have to get out to year 7 or so before the curve begins to linearize.
		Hubbert's original model was successful because he was working with a mature (lower 48) oil province with which he was totally familiar.
		The curve fits for mathematical reasons best a straight line somewhere near and after the middle, when the cumulative production is big enough to even the percentage out (100 000 barrels of 10 million barrels is 1%, next year same production is 0,99%) and production is rather flat.
	www.theoildrum.com /story/2005/9/13/162534/953 (14698 words)

	Oil crisis
		Those, who think the world is exempt from the Hubbert Curve and that there will always be plentiful oil, should think about the implications of a fifteen-fold increase in commodity price and a continued decline in production as experienced in the US in the 1970s.
		The Hubbert curve is based in physics and you can't repeal the laws of physics just because we want them repealed.
		After adding all the curves for the 42 countries, they concluded that the peak in world oil production would be in 2007.
	home.entouch.net /dmd/Future_oil_supply.htm (8884 words)

	Plan War and the Hubbert Oil Curve, printer friendly version
		M. King Hubbert was the first geologist to make a fairly accurate estimate of the total recoverable quantity of oil—first in North America and then later in the world as a whole.
		The reason is that we naturally go after the easy, cheap oil first and, by the time about half of the total amount of oil is gone, the easy stuff tends to run out; then it becomes more difficult to extract what’s left.
		The Hubbert oil peak is predicted to occur in five to ten years.
	zmagsite.zmag.org /May2004/rosspr0504.html (2465 words)

	Rebuttal of Hubbert' claims
		Perhaps because they are not academics, the primary authors have a tendency to publish results but not research. In fact, by relying heavily on a proprietary database, Campbell and Laherrere have generated a strong shield against criticism of their work, making it nearly impossible to reproduce or check.
		If, indeed, the estimates of field size tend to grow over time, then the creaming curves would not be accurate, as the later part of the curve would be underestimated.
		No statistical or quantitative data is published with it, and the fit of the discovery curve looks poor, with recent large discoveries suggesting that the asymptote is not valid.
	www.gasresources.net /Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm (1283 words)

	Hubbert's Peak, Current Events
		From 2000 to 2003, world crude oil production has been essentially flat, which is to be expected as we roll over the top of the bell-shaped Hubbert curve.
		In the revised paperback edition of Hubbert's Peak, the only change required is to add one more dot along the line on page 157.
		Although it is a bit silly, we can now pick a day to celebrate passing the top of the mathematically smooth Hubbert curve: Nov 24, 2005.
	www.princeton.edu /hubbert/current-events-04-01.html (441 words)

	THE RISE AND FALL OF THE HUBBERT CURVE: ITS ORIGINS AND CURRENT PERCEPTIONS
		Hubbert was the Assistant Director and Director of Education of Technocracy.
		The Technocrats used growth and decline curves to predict a wide range of societal trends.
		As one who always advocated rigorous analysis in geologic studies, Hubbert had been greatly impressed by USGS statistical studies of mineral resources published while he was a student at Chicago.
	gsa.confex.com /gsa/2003AM/finalprogram/abstract_61689.htm (500 words)

Try your search on: Qwika (all wikis)