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Topic: Kondratieff Waves

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	Kondratieff Wave
		He, like R.N. Elliott, Kondratieff was convinced that his studies of economic, social, and cultural life proved that a long term order of economic behavior existed and could be used for the purpose of anticipating future economic developments.
		Kondratieff's observations represent the modern expression of this cycle, which postulates that capitalist countries tend to follow the long rhythmic pattern of approximately half a century.
		In the idealized long wave model, which is illustrated in the diagram above, the cycle (which averages 54 years in length) begins with the "upwave" during which prices start to rise slowly along with a new economic expansion.
	www.angelfire.com /or/truthfinder/index22.html (1176 words)

	Kondratieff Long Wave Cycles Past and Present
		Kondratieff's major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 50-60 years in duration.
		Kondratieff's theories documented in the 1920's were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.
		Kondratieff viewed depressions as cleansing periods that allowed the economy to readjust from the previous excesses and begin a base for future growth.
	www.kwaves.com /kond_overview.htm (2780 words)

	Smith,Marx, Kondratieff and Keynes (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		Kondratieff felt that there was an internal restabilizing factor within capitalism, which reasserted itself during serious depressions, with each major down turn holding within itself the seeds for the next upturn.
		Kondratieff contradicted Marx, in that he claimed that capitalism was in fact regenerating itself through periodic waves of upward movement after periods of downward movement.
		Kondratieff did not set forth a theory for the long wave, although he did note that innovations developed during the down side of one long wave were often later used the next upswing.
	www.southerndomains.com /SouthernBanks/p2.htm (7908 words)

	FSO Transcription - Ian Gordon - "The Kondratieff Winter" 07/27/2002 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		We’ve talked about this Kondratieff Winter where you go through this long cleansing cycle in the markets, where this debt is cleansed from the system so that we can get back to the Spring and the rebirth of the economy and the financial markets.
		The period in the Kondratieff Cycle for inflation is the Summer.
		The period for deflation in the Kondratieff Cycle is the Winter.
	www.financialsense.com /transcriptions/Gordon.htm (7757 words)

	Kondratieff Waves
		The Kondratieff Waves, also referred to as the K-waves, are the description of a regular S-shaped cycle in the modern world economy.
		They were developed by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff[?] in the 1920s.
		His ideas were endorsed by Joseph Schumpeter in the 1930s, who named the pattern after Kondratieff.
	www.ebroadcast.com.au /lookup/encyclopedia/ko/Kondratieff_Waves.html (112 words)

	Kondratiev wave - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		In economics, Kondratiev waves, also called grand supercycles or surges or long waves, occasionally also referred to as the K-waves, are the term for a regular S-shaped cycle in the modern (Capitalist) world economy.
		The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long wave theory with his 1964 essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in 1979.
		Long wave theory is not accepted by most neo-classical ("standard textbook") economists, who necessarily see technical change and innovation as exogenous rather than endogenous to economics, but it is one of the bases of innovation-based, development, and evolutionary economics, i.e.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Kondratieff_Waves (694 words)

	BUSINESS CYCLES & THE 56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		The Kondratieff Wave of 45 to 60 years duration is found in the economic history of US and European capitalist economies since at least the late 1780's.
		Extrapolating from previous Kondratieff waves, the crash of 1987 (Seq 03) could have been expected to usher in a serious depression in the late 1980’s (1987 and 1989 - Seqs 03 and 05 respectively), followed by a recovery in the early 1990’s and a depression in the mid 1990’s.
		During the rising waves, these intermediate cycles were characterised by brevity of depressions and intensity of upswings, while for the downward waves the opposite applied with intense depressions and shorter periods of growth.
	www.davidmcminn.com /pages/bcnum56.htm (2432 words)

	The Kondratieff Wave (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		The K- wave is an economic cycle of sorts that is said to be 56 years in duration but has varied from 47 to 60+ years.
		Kondratieff states, “The waves are not exactly the same length, their duration varying between 47 and 60 years.” The K-wave can be thought of as having an upside leg, a plateau and a downside leg.
		Kondratieff, he clearly ties the topping of the inflationary leg of the wave to the peaking of interest rates and commodity prices and the bottoming of the wave to the bottoming of interest rates and commodity prices.
	www.gold-investor.com /article.php/20050130172551289 (1301 words)

	KONDRATIEFF WAVES
		KONDRATIEFF WAVES (or, for short, K-waves) may be defined as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern world economy.
		That is why they are waves of economic activity, each wave different in kind from the last one, rather than cycles, seen as mechanical fluctuations in attainment of some uniform quantity.
		The start-up period of the next leading sector is also the period of flattening growth rates, declining profits, and severe competition for the previous lead industry; this transition between two leading sectors peak may be known as downswing, and takes the form of generalized slow-down and in the 1930s, of the Great Depression.
	faculty.washington.edu /modelski/IPEKWAVE.html (2002 words)

	Kondratieff's Long Waves
		These long waves are themselves related to the other cycles operating within the capitalist economy such as the business cycle, as well as other cycles affecting, for example, commodity prices, interest rates, the gold price and gold production etc. all of which are interrelated.
		Kondratieff responds to this criticism by saying that what appear as exogenous forces are themselves the result of endogenous aspects of the cycle.
		Moreover, Kondratieff looks at the development of the wave in terms of those economies, which are the dominant and emerging economies of the time.
	www.workersliberty.org /node/5676/print (7294 words)

	Kondratieff wave theory, economics, supercycles - Money Week
		In each long wave, according to the theory, capitalist economies pass naturally through distinct and measurable stages of growth, plateau, contraction and renewal, which closely relate to periods of intense technological innovation.
		Kondratieff was a Russian economist born in 1892 and active in the 1920s who ‘discovered’ that capitalism reinvigorates itself after a crisis.
		In the model Kondratieff wave, the economy moves through four distinct phases within each long cycle, known as spring, summer, autumn and winter (for a detailed overview, see www.kwaves.com).
	www.moneyweek.com /file/3355/kondratieffwavetheory.html (1041 words)

	Investment globalization is defined, in principle, as the proportion of all invested capital in the world that is owned ...
		Kondratieff waves consist of a period of economic growth followed by a period of stagnation.
		Wallerstein argues that Kondratieff waves are necessary to the process of capitalist development, as periods of economic expansion and high profits provide a setup for periods of economic stagnation and declining profits.
		Kondratieff waves may take place within the context of even longer economic cycles.
	www.irows.ucr.edu /research/globres/rgiem.html (2559 words)

	Kondratieff & Long Wave Cycles
		So, admittedly not knowing anything about Kondratieff or the Kondratieff theory (obviously, you didn't even bother to read the article I posted), you are willing to diss a theory about which you know nothing on the basis of a mind completely closed by limited exposure to EWT (about which you boast only casual familiarity).
		The Kondratieff Wave might be very useful in explaining some cycles, but like the business cycle, it is not periodic so not useful for making predictions….
		Elliot Waves is invariably followed by technicians; while the Longwave Business Cycle is a fundamental analysis of the economic history based on economic observations and not the market observations per se.
	www.suite101.com /discussion.cfm/investing/110185/8-17 (1957 words)

	FSU Editorial: "The End of Summer Days" by Andy Sutton 10/13/2006
		The waves are output-oriented, as opposed to price-centered, so the relationship between the waves and prices is implicit rather than explicit.
		It is important to note that much like a wave in the ocean there is a peak, a trough, and a frequency (the distance between peaks).
		I certainly agree with Kondratieff and others that there appears to be a cyclical pattern with regard to economies, especially on a global scale.
	www.financialsense.com /fsu/editorials/sutton/2006/1013.html (879 words)

	The Kondratieff Wave
		A more recent writer, Ernst Mandel in his Long Waves of Capitalist Development (1980), opines that we are now living in the downswing of the fourth Kondratieff, which started in 1945 and reached its peak in the early 1970s.
		He sees Kondratieff long waves as cycles of balance and surplus in the supply of labor relative to the supply of employment.
		So, the long wave is primarily a matter of 70-80 year tides of technology and workweek length, and of alternating centripetal and centrifugal forces on wealth.
	www.timesizing.com /1kondrat.htm (1645 words)

	Class Discussion Mon 21April
		The historical up and down waves in commodity prices that peak at the end of wars is pretty obvious -- these are Kondratieff or longwaves.
		Kondratieff used both interest rates (which move with P-hat) and the level of prices to identify long waves.
		The reason that Kondratieff and his longwave followers have focused on synchronicity in nominal prices and nominal interest rates as well as stagnant economic growth in the post-WWI deflation is that the period was characterized by the gold standard and fixed exchange rates.
	www.colorado.edu /econ/courses/roper/sp03/lectures/apr/21.html (1594 words)

	Planet Yelnick: Kondratieff Winter and the Greenspan Indian Summer (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		Elliot wave aside, there seems to be a strong correlation between the supposed 2000"top" and today with the period of 1927 to 1929.
		March highs were wave (G) and we now are in (b) of an (a)-(b)-(c) down into X which could only be as low as 1150 area according to the NEoWave diametric.
		Kondratieff never identified Spring, Winter or any other season, and he did not say there was a 54 year cycle.
	yelnick.typepad.com /yelnick/2005/07/kondratieff_win.html (3041 words)

	Planet Yelnick: political waves (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		The Wave Principle guides us as to when the psychology of terror could do such a thing, but it might remain an event of such singular moment as to be outside the statistical guidance of the Wave.
		The first wave down after 1929, the A Wave to 1932, gave us Hitler, but it took the third wave, the confidence-deflating C Wave of 1937-8, to drive the world into global war.
		Wave 2 bear market rally continues, although we appear to be nearing end for this leg of the rally.
	yelnick.typepad.com /yelnick/political_waves (9607 words)

	C:\WS_FTP32\BerryK.htm
		But Kondratiev's hypothesis that long waves were an organic part of the capitalist system_that there was complete interdependency in capitalism between political and social development, war, economics, and finance (particularly his view that capitalist crises were self-correcting and that successive cycles were therefore repetitive)_brought vigorous criticism.
		The period of the rising wave of a long cycle is characterized by a far greater number of social upheavals and radical changes to society than the period of the downward wave.
		Rather, he argued, long waves are periods of growth and decline that lie between capitalist crises_turning-points with external causes, such as wars and revolutions.
	aix1.uottawa.ca /~rroberge/berryk.htm (8583 words)

	Kondratieff & Long Wave Cycles: Kondratieff is alive and well.
		The obscure Russian agricultural economist, who authored “Long Wave” theory during the Stalinist era, was sent to the Gulag because his theory of a long (54-70 year) economic cycle in the United States conflicted with Communist dogma, which held that the capitalistic system was inherently self-destructive.
		We are now in the fourth Kondratieff Wave cycle in the United States.
		If events follow the three previous Kondratieff Waves, a deflationary recession, which we feel we are currently headed into, will be followed by an inflationary depression.
	www.suite101.com /discussion.cfm/investing/110185/1019643 (804 words)

	Nikolai Kondratiev - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		He proposed a theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom followed by depression.
		These business cycles are now called "Kondratiev waves", or grand supercycles.
		Nikolai Dimitrievich Kondratiev was born on 4 March 1892 in the province of Kostroma, north of Moscow, into a peasant family.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Kondratieff (669 words)

	Bull and Bear Markets in Int'l Tensions, Part II
		In the Fourth Kondratieff upswing, transportation speed was vastly improved by the aerospace industry and by the introduction of the container.
		According to Nikolai Kondratieff, during the upswing, "the rapid growth of new productive forces, intensifying the activity of the classes and groups within that have an interest in that growth, creates the prerequisite for sharpening the struggle against socioeconomic relations that are obsolescent and hinder development.
		As indicated, Kondratieff explained the occurrence of so many internal upheavals during the rising wave of the long wave cycle by suggesting that the rapid growth of productive forces led to strife between the groups that have an interest in growth against socioeconomic relations that are obsolete and hinder economic and social development.
	www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com /Archives/2006/20060315.html (3320 words)

	Kitco - Commentaries
		Marc Faber writes a great, always informative newsletter and he discusses these cycles in depth, which were studied by the Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff and are, therefore, referred to as the Kondratieff waves.
		These waves last between 45 to 60 years from peak to peak and the rising waves are characterized by rising commodity prices, new innovations, social upheaval, global economic power shifts and wars.
		Previous Kondratieff upmoves, for example, coincided with the following innovations: in the first one there was road, canal and bridge construction; in the second it was railroads; third was electricity, radio, telephone and autos; in the fourth it was electronics and aerospace and now in the fifth upswing it’s telecommunications and internet.
	www.kitco.com /ind/taf/may012006.html (684 words)

	Cycles Research Institute - Kondratieff (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		He adjusted production figures to allow for population change and used a moving average (nine years) to remove statistical `noise.' Kondratieff thought that the presence of the long wave was probable but could not be specific as to its cause, deeming it to be inherent in a capitalist economy.
		There were two waves in wholesale prices during the nineteenth century in the USA of about 50 years each that could conform to Kondratieff's waveform.
		The long wave rhythm, which varies from 45 to 60 years, has attained its periodicity from averaging a wide distribution.
	www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org /kondratieff.html (373 words)

	From Tsunamis to Long Waves and Back
		Long waves were not discussed again in Futures until 1981 when the entire August, and much of the October, issues that year were devoted to the topic.
		In so doing, Berry and Kim were able to refigure the four successive waves of generations (which Strauss and Howe in that book labeled "Idealist"," Reactive", "Civic" and "Adaptive") so that the order of the generations better fits the A and B portions of the current and future Kondratieff Waves.
		Indeed, given the allegation that the popularity of long waves is greatest during economic recessions, and that there are at least "two camps" using long wave theory for different purposes, it seems that, however successfully long wave theory explains the past, it has not been very useful in forecasting the future--or even the present.
	www.soc.hawaii.edu /future/dator/futures/tsu2longwvs.html (8236 words)

	Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security (Edited by: T.C. Devezas) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		We may tentatively agree that wars are not merely the result of blind social and political forces, but patterned according to long socioeconomic cycles and the result of deep and general laws underlying the co-evolutionary unfolding of the world system.
		In the first part of this book, the reader will find a mix of contributions dealing with new visions or revisions of the concept of long waves considered from very different perspectives related to their unfolding.
		Those contributions discussing the issue of K-waves and their relation with military conflicts objectively, following old and / or new conceptualizations of the phenomenon, were selected to form the book’s second part.
	www.iospress.nl /html/1586035886.php (314 words)

	Amazon.ca: The Kondratieff Waves: Books: N. H. Mager,Nathan H. Mager (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist who first advanced the idea that an industrial economy--be it free market or socialist--goes through long waves of growth and decline.
		He identified 40-60 year waves, going as far back as 1790, by studying the wholesale prices, interest rates, wages, and production.
		Mager presents, for the first time, a comprehensive description of the long waves of economic expansion and contraction and outlines its cycles.
	www.amazon.ca /Kondratieff-Waves-N-H-Mager/dp/0275921492 (330 words)

	Amazon.com: Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security: Volume 5 NATO Security through Science Series: Human and ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-02)
		We may tentatively agree that wars are not merely the result of blind social and political forces.
		In Part I the reader will find a mix of contributions dealing with new visions or revisions of the concept of long waves considered from very different perspectives related to their unfolding.
		Those contributions discussing objectively the issue of K-waves and their relation with military conflicts, following old and/or new conceptualizations of the phenomenon, were selected to form the books Part II.
	www.amazon.com /Kondratieff-Waves-Warfare-World-Security/dp/1586035886 (830 words)

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