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Topic: Launch on warning

In the News (Wed 15 Feb 12)

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	Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark (Episode #2: The SIOP Option that Wasn’t) - CDI (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The official dogma they expressed was that the United States had the capability to launch on warning and a potential adversary should not assume that a U.S. attack would be ridden out, but that the United States did not rely on LOW.
		Launch under attack means that you believe you have incontrovertible proof that warheads actually are on the way…..
		The early warning and command systems on both sides are inherently susceptible to mistakes and technical malfunctions, and serious false alarms of incoming nuclear strikes have occurred on both sides since the official end of the Cold War.
	www.cdi.org /blair/launch-on-warning.cfm (1269 words)

	Eliminate Launch on Warning by Alan Phillips and Steven Starr
		A false warning would be immediately revealed as such when the predicted time had passed for the first missiles to arrive and no detonation had been detected; and there would be no launch.
		Launch on Warning and the related term "Launch under Attack" (LUA) are not always used consistently, and this has caused confusion.
		The launch order is transmitted only if three conditions are simultaneously met: the preliminary authorization has been received, there has been a complete loss of communications with the NCA, and positive signals of nuclear detonations are received from the different types of sensors.
	www.wagingpeace.org /articles/2004/09/00_phillips_eliminate-launch-warning.htm (2829 words)

	Japan to Launch Earthquake Early Warning System \| Asian American Daily \| GoldSea (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The agency will issue a warning when weak tremors called primary, or P waves _ which spread from the epicenter and travel faster than the destructive shear, or S waves _ pass a certain intensity, the statement said.
		It warned, however, that the length of forewarning depends on a region's distance from the epicenter, and early warning won't work for areas directly above the ruptured fault, where the P and S waves are nearly simultaneous.
		Warnings won't immediately be available to the general public because of fears they will only cause mass panic, the statement said.
	goldsea.com /Asiagate/607/30warning.html (544 words)

	No Launch On Warning, by Alan F. Phillips, M.D., May 2002
		Since a false warning is immediately revealed as such when the predicted time has passed for the first rockets to arrive and no detonation has been detected, simply delaying retaliation until there has been a nuclear detonation guarantees that a war will not be started accidentally from that cause.
		As soon as a warning of attack was received, one which a threat conference deemed to be real, the order to prepare for a retaliatory launch could be given.
		There would be minor changes in the launch sequence to suit whatever safeguards would be made to ensure that no launch could occur while the crews in the silos were waiting for the final order, and that they would be ready for instant launch if that order came through.
	www.wagingpeace.org /articles/2002/05/00_phillips_no-launch.htm (5779 words)

	[No title]
		This means that the implementation of Launch on Warning Capability is openly threatened and certainly possible as alleged in the complaint.
		That Launch of Warning as an announcement of hostile threat and a potential actuality is unconstitutional on the grounds that in atomic (sic; a time of) peace, Launch on Warning unconstitutionally surrenders Congress's power to declare war.
		PENROSE: The implementation of the Launch on Warning Capability would necessarily have the approval of Congress, because Congress is funding whatever research and procurement is involved in acquiring that capability, if in fact the executive and the military are acquiring that capability.
	public.planetmirror.com /pub/risks/johnson.hearing (3570 words)

	LAUNCH ON WARNING IN (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Launch on warning has always been viewed as a pariah in the United States because of the potential for erroneous indications in the warning system that could lead to the accidental start of a nuclear war.
		The remaining shortcoming in the Soviet ability to execute launch on warning in the past was based on the inability to maintain their missile forces in a high state of readiness.
		This low level of readiness may have been due in part to a Soviet belief that any hostilities would be preceded by a period of tension which would allow the gradual increase in readiness levels, but it is possible that the low alert rate was a result of technical constraints.
	www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil /airchronicles/aureview/1986/nov-dec/williams.html (5318 words)

	Launch on Warning: A Counter to the Arms Race (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		Launch on warning would dictate that the U.S. response be a countervalue one, both in order to deter and because it is unlikely that the U.S. missiles could be retargeted in time to take into account the attacking missiles.
		The launch on warning policy could, in addition to lessening the likelihood of an arms race, provide a means for reducing the size of the U.S. SOF and, reciprocally, the size of the Soviet strategic offense capability.
		The purpose of a launch on warning policy is to insure that the U.S. assured-destruction potential is preserved; so it is important only to indicate the intent to launch the missiles targeted for countervalue attack before the U.S. missiles are destroyed in their silos.
	www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil /airchronicles/aureview/1970/jan-feb/widder.html (3139 words)

	Launch on Warning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		The term "Launch on Warning" (L-o-W) is used here in reference to retaliation with rocket-mounted nuclear weapons to a perceived nuclear attack in response to a warning (by radar or satellite sensors) of attacking missiles, before any incoming warhead had arrived and detonated.
		"Launch on Warning" is not defined in the web version of the dictionary, but we understand it is used to include a pre-emptive strike, if the enemy is perceived to be preparing for nuclear war.
		It is hardly credible that the attacking side could feel sure that their EMP would disrupt communication and launch mechanisms sufficiently, since they would know that military electronics will have been shielded.
	scienceforpeace.sa.utoronto.ca /Essays_Briefs/Phillips/Phillips-LOW.html (1485 words)

	PC(USA) - Washington Office
		Launch on warning means that if a country detects what it assesses to be a nuclear attack, it would launch its own missiles before enemy missiles could hit the ground.
		Early warning systems are extremely faulty as demonstrated in the incident discussed above, and maintaining the "launch-on-warning" exacerbates the threat of war by miscalculation.
		If the launch time of nuclear weapons were increased from minutes to days or even weeks, this extra time would function as a safety lock on the missiles preventing a cataclysmic mishap.
	www.pcusa.org /washington/issuenet/gs-001211.htm (2035 words)

	Questions and Answers About No Launch on Warning
		The lack of a definition of 'launch on warning' could explain the fact that US military spokespeople have sometimes told us that the strategic forces are not at 'launch on warning', but at 'launch under attack' (which is defined).
		It seems to have meant, or to have included in its meaning, the launch of a pre-emptive disarming attack on strategic warning of a nuclear attack believed to be imminent, but not yet launched.
		As soon as the warning was seen to show a serious possibility of being real the president would be warned and the launch crews alerted.
	www.web.net /~cnanw/nolaunchqa.htm (2561 words)

	Launch on Warning: The Development of U.S. Capabilities, 1959-1979
		"Launch on warning" characterizes the second scenario: with electronic sensors detecting a Soviet bomber-missile attack, "there might be time" for consultations on whether the warning information was accurate and whether missiles or bombers should be launched in retaliation.
		The possibility and desirability of a launch on warning capability for the United States was a premise of a briefing given on 3 June 59 to President Eisenhower by MIT professor Jerome Wiesner, then a member of the President's Science Advisory Committee (PSAC) (He became White House science adviser for President Kennedy in 1961).
		Bruce Blair, who was a Minuteman launch officer in the early 1970s, recalls that he "was postured for LOW [launch-on-warning] during the early 1970s, and the whole force and command system were geared to this timing", that is, to rapid response.
	www.gwu.edu /~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB43 (7445 words)

	Article (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-31)
		However, it is possible that the warning is a false one and there is no nuclear attack on India, in which case the Indian launch (which may well have exploded by the time it is determined that there was no incoming nuclear attack) would constitute a first nuclear strike.
		Given this incompatibility between the NFU commitment and a LOW doctrine, as well as the military’s desire for a LOW posture, it should therefore not be surprising that military sources have advocated dropping the NFU commitment.
		It is this (re)action that a Launch on Warning doctrine seeks to codify as policy.
	www.epw.org.in /showArticles.php?root=2003&leaf=03&filename=5547&filetype=html (4141 words)

	[No title]
		Upon receipt of information from the Warning Sources of an impending enemy attack, the Warning Point shall, and is hereby authorized to, immediately activate the Attack Warning Signal (a 3 to 5 minute wavering sound on sirens, or a series of short blasts on whistles, horns, or other Public Warning System devices).
		The attack warning signal shall be repeated as often as indicated by the National Warning System or as deemed necessary by the CEO or the Emergency Management Director.
		Issues cancellation of warning notice or otherwise ensures emergency responders and the public are aware of the fact that the emergency situation is terminated.
	www.ct.gov /oem/lib/oem/ANNEX_C-WARNING.doc (2469 words)

	No Launch on Warning
		This paper argues for abandoning "Launch on Warning" (L-o-W), as a simple and quick method of greatly reducing the risk of nuclear war, pending the permanent elimination of nuclear weapons which has been promised by all the Nuclear Weapon States that have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
		It is the policy that, when there is a warning (by radar or satellite sensors) of attacking missiles on the way, requires a decision to launch or not to launch retaliatory weapons to be made so promptly that the launch can be done before any incoming warhead has arrived and detonated.
		An alternative distinction has sometimes been implied: that L-o-W means to launch on a warning from one system (radar or satellite) alone, and "launch under attack" means launching retaliation before detonation, but only if the warning is confirmed by a second system.
	www.web.net /~cnanw/nolaunch.htm (4721 words)

	Catapult launch system
		The purpose of the nose landing gear catapult launch system is to provide a means of directing the aircraft into position for catapult launching, as well as being connected automatically to the ship’s catapult equipment.
		The launch bar is swivel mounted on the forward side of the nose gear outer cylinder and maybe extended and retracted during taxiing.
		The launch bar is held in the down position by the catapult shuttle until reaching the end of the launch run, where the bar is released from the shuttle and the weight-on-gear switch is actuated to the weight-off-gear position.
	www.tpub.com /air/12-47.htm (704 words)

	Preventing Nuclear War: Launch-on-Warning and De-alerting
		Both Russia and the U.S. have a policy of "Launch on Warning" (L-o-W), by which "retaliation" has to be launched if a nuclear attack is seen by radar and satellites to be on the way.
		The decision to launch or not to launch may have to be made in a matter of 5 or 10 minutes; never longer than 20 minutes.
		Abandoning Launch on Warning would be a good step towards a world free of the fear of a nuclear war.
	perc.ca /PEN/2001-12-01/s-phillips.html (1533 words)

	U.S.-Russian Talks Revive Old Debates on Nuclear Warnings
		One of those strategies is called "launch on warning" and is widely viewed as raising the risk of accidental nuclear war.
		The launch on warning strategy is essentially this: if a defender detected a nuclear launch, it would send up its own missiles and warheads even before its enemy's could hit the ground.
		Launch on warning was once seen as a way to reinforce the idea that all sides would lose in a nuclear exchange -- and thus deter one -- as modern arms became increasingly accurate.
	partners.nytimes.com /library/world/global/050100russia-us-nuke.html (966 words)

	Security: Disarmament
		U.S. abandon their current "launch on warning" nuclear posture and take their nuclear weapons off alert.
		In fact, "de-targeting" would be meaningless if an accidental launch were to occur, since Russian missiles would automatically switch back to their primary wartime targets.
		This would encourage Russian military planners to alter their doctrine of launch on warning, and begin taking missiles off hair-trigger alert.
	www.psr.org /home.cfm?id=dealerting5 (1416 words)

	SPACE.com -- Titan 4 Delivers Its Payload
		Some seven hours after an unforgettable lunch time launch from Florida's Space Coast on Monday, the Air Force announced the welcome word that a $682 million mission to deliver a military missile-warning satellite into orbit was a complete success.
		As a result, the nation's top military brass was closely watching this flight, but the 3rd Launch Squadron of the 45th Space Wing, responsible for Titan launch operations at the Cape, had no problem this time in showing off for the generals.
		Although the Cold War with the former Soviet Union is long over, the threat of missile launches against the United States, or our allies around the world, remains as more nations develop their own strategic weaponry, said Col. Scott Rounce, DSP deputy program director for the Air Force.
	www.space.com /missionlaunches/launches/b29_titan4_dsp20_preview_000507.html (964 words)

	SIGHTINGS
		Add in a diplomatic crisis and ``the potential for Russia to misinterpret early warning data'' would be extra worrisome, Lawrence Gershwin, the top CIA officer for science and technology, told the U.S. Congress last week.
		Along with the perceived Y2K vulnerabilities of Russia's strategic warning system, the command control of its military is at risk during the calendar rollover, Gershwin told the special Senate Y2K committee on Oct. 13.
		Launch data will be displayed as it is picked up by nearby Cheyenne Mountain, the fabled, steel-sheathed operations center of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) on the outskirts of Colorado Springs.
	www.rense.com /politics5/y2klaunchwrn.htm (946 words)

	WashingtonPost.com: Cold War Report
		The first radar-blip warning of the Norwegian rocket came from the early-warning system built around the periphery of the Soviet Union.
		With fewer weapons, limited finances, gaps in early warning, and the dissipation of Cold War rivalry, some analysts have urged Russian and the United States to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert.
		It's dangerous with a possible mistake in making the decision to launch." But, he added, "making this mistake in peacetime, a time like now, the likelihood is practically zero.
	www.washingtonpost.com /wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter031598b.htm (1282 words)

	The Little Magazine - Bloodsport - Achin Vanaik - Ten dilemmas of nuclear deterrence
		What this means, of course, is that there is an inescapable trade-off between the requirements of nuclear safety and guarding against the risks of a launch by accident or miscalculation, and the requirements of deterrence efficacy.
		In the case of the US, from the time the alarm is raised about a possible Soviet launch, ten to twelve minutes would have to elapse for the missile to be identified, its path tracked and the necessary information relayed to the top command.
		Any decision (whether this was a false alarm or a real one calling for the order to launch) taken by the President, if it was to be communicated to all necessary stations so as to be carried out, would require another eight to ten minutes.
	www.littlemag.com /bloodsport/achinvanaik3.html (2013 words)

	A Nuclear Knife Aimed at America’s Heart
		Launch on Warning takes advantage of the fact that long-range ballistic missiles take time to arrive on target -- up to 25 minutes, depending on where the missiles are fired from.
		Thus, one of the great advantages for a Launch on Warning doctrine is that it allows the nation that launches second to have an advantage over the nation that launches first.
		The one to launch first wastes a certain number of its missiles on our silos that are now empty.
	www.infowars.com /articles/world/nuke_knife_aimed_us_heart.htm (1636 words)

	If It's Broke, Don't Fix It - CISAC
		Implementing launch-on-warning required substantial investment into a network of early warning radars and satellites--plus a command and control system that would allow missiles to be on constant "hair-trigger alert." Its cost proved high enough that only two nuclear powers--the United States and Soviet Union--established a launch-on-warning capability.
		The argument is simple: If the early warning system was unreliable a decade ago when it was in relatively good shape, imagine how bad the situation is today, after years of decline.
		The best way to deal with the dangers of accidental launch is to remove missiles from hair-trigger alert, for example by introducing physical barriers that would prevent a launch on warning.
	cisac.stanford.edu /publications/if_its_broke_dont_fix_it (961 words)

	FAS Public Interest Report, De-MIRVing
		Moreover, maintaining a launch on warning/ disarming attack option against an alerted Russian force may limit future disarmament to as many as two thousand warheads on missiles and bombers, thought by some to be necessary to maintain the option.
		The totality of evidence since the late 1970s--heavy Soviet investment in launch on warning and so-called dead hand, or automatic retaliation, arrangements, and heavy emphasis on launch on warning in strategic exercises and training--strongly indicates a preoccupation if not obsession with situations in which the West initiates a strategic nuclear attack.
		These norms powerfully shape the operational predilections of the U.S. command system--for instance, its predisposition to launch on warning instead of launching after an attack is ridden out and its readiness to delegate launch authority down the chain of command beforehand in case presidential direction is disrupted.
	www.fas.org /faspir/pir0198.htm (3150 words)

	Reducing the risk of accidental launch: Time for a new approach?-Strategic Forces and Arms Control-Publications-Pavel ...
		The space-based early warning system built by the Soviet Union was not designed to detect launches of sea-based missiles and the Soviet radar network had serious gaps in coverage.
		The older Hen House early warning radars built during the early 1970s provide some additional coverage, as does the battle management radar of the Moscow missile defense system, but overall the radar network cannot ensure that any missile approaching the Russian territory will be detected.
		Since the early warning system is an essential element of a launch-on-warning posture, it is understandable that a number of proposals that aim at reducing the risks of accidental launch suggest helping Russia to repair or upgrade its early-warning system.
	russianforces.org /podvig/eng/publications/forces/20050204ponars.shtml (2447 words)

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