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Topic: Malcolm Mackerras

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Australian legislative election, 2004

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	simon jackman’s blog » John Howard, Bennelong, and Malcolm Mackerras (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Malcolm Mackerras has been on this one for a while: that Bennelong is increasingly a marginal seat and if it looks sufficiently dodgy, Howard will resign, rather than risk the ignominy of losing his seat.
		Malcolm’s latest serve on this appeared in Crikey on May 22, 2006:
		Malcolm also points out that Queensland is due for another electoral redistribution, gaining another seat due to its ongoing population growth.
	jackman.stanford.edu /blog/?p=46 (1001 words)

	UNSW@ADFA - HASS - Staff Directory
		Mr Mackerras was born in Sydney in August 1939, completing a BEc at the University of Sydney in 1962.
		Malcolm Mackerras is well known for “The Mackerras Pendulum” which applies to all Australian lower houses with single member electorates.
		If you write to Mr Mackerras (as many people have done) he can send you (by “snail mail”) his newest pendulums for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
	www.unsw.adfa.edu.au /hass/staff/mackerras.html (358 words)

	Restrictions on the Timing of Half-Senate Elections
		ADFA political scientist, Malcolm Mackerras has been a seemingly lone exception to the general view.
		According to Malcolm Mackerras, former Chief Electoral Officer Keith Pearson once claimed to him that half-Senate writs could not be issued before 1 July, and suggested that this had been the view of electoral officials for many years.
		The author wishes to thank Malcolm Mackerras for giving him the germ of the idea for this paper.
	www.aph.gov.au /library/pubs/rn/2001-02/02rn38.htm (1107 words)

	Elections: voting with Mumble
		Lots of nonsense, its main evidence being the results of a 127 sample strong 2004 AES survey (which Overington states as fact), and trawling the hundreds of opinion polls published over the last decade to find two or three showing youth favouring the government (and ignoring the other several hundred surveys showing the opposite).
		Malcolm Mackerras kindly sent me a copy of the pendulum published with his Monday Oz piece.
		Speaking of Malcolm, I'll be sharing a podium with him and Murray Goot at a conference next week commemorating a certain fellow's ten years in office; Ian McAllister chairing.
	www.mumble.com.au /index_oldish19.html (1833 words)

	news@unsw - Headlines
		Malcolm Mackerras - 22 March 2005 - Australian Financial Review
		Malcolm Mackerras is visiting fellow in political science in the Schoiol of Humanities and Social Sciences at ADFA
		In January 1966, Robert Menzies retired as prime minister in favour of Harold Holt, his deputy leader, who was also treasurer and the member for Higgins in Victoria.
	www.newspaper.unsw.edu.au /archive/05_03_30/text/opinion/opinion2.htm (765 words)

	Mozart to savour (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Great artists transcend normal boundaries of experience, and when two great musicians share the platform with a first class orchestra, the level of inspiration is bound to be transcendent.
		Such was the impression at the penultimate concert at the UK's Aldeburgh Festival, at Snape Maltings on 23 June 2001, in which Alfred Brendel performed two Mozart concertos with the Scottish Chamber Orchestra under Sir Charles Mackerras, a preparation for their forthcoming recording, as part of Brendel's marathon 70th birthday season.
		Mackerras' uncanny control of dynamics and the classically sculpted phrasing was full of wonder and suspense.
	www.mvdaily.com /articles/2001/06/savour1.htm (168 words)

	Letter: October surprise and election prediction for United States
		Malcolm Mackerras a columnist for The Australian newspaper ‘predicted’ in the 31 October 2004 issue of the newspaper made an incredulous claim that John Kerry would win by a landslide in the electoral vote getting “around” 320 to 330 electoral votes (out of 540, the candidates who get 270 votes wins the election.
		Mackerras make this bold ‘prediction’ on the ground that Kerry would win in the election ALL the votes that Al Gore won in the 200o election and Ohio, Florida (the key ‘swing states’) and a few other states as well.
		Even a safe Democratic State like Hawaii and Michigan within striking distance of the Republicans it is rash of Mackerras to claim that not only will Kerry win all the 2000 Gore states but also a few other States as well.
	www.news.vu /en/opinion/letters/letter-october-surprise.shtml (537 words)

	Khaleej Times Online - Australian prime minister denies speculation he might quit to avoid election loss
		Political analyst Malcolm Mackerras said a shift in electoral boundaries surrounding Prime Minister John Howard’s Sydney seat of Bennelong made it more difficult for Howard to hang on in elections due next year.
		Mackerras calculated that Howard’s support was as low as 3 percent because of the inclusion of more opposition Labor Party supporters within the new boundaries.
		Mackerras also said Howard would likely prefer retiring to losing his seat.
	www.khaleejtimes.com /DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/July/theworld_July47.xml§ion=theworld (413 words)

	TAS Country Hour - 08/10/2004: Election predictions from Malcolm Mackerras
		Veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras is predicting the only regional seat to change hands in the election will be Bass.
		Overall, Malcolm Mackerras says it'll be the Coalition by eight seats, and Telstra will be privatised.
		He says the other hot tip is for the Nationals to keep their 13 members plus gain a seat or two in the Senate, which means the three rural independents will also hold their ground.
	www.abc.net.au /rural/tas/stories/s1215858.htm (120 words)

	UNSW: The University of New South Wales - Sydney Australia - News - Australia Day honours for UNSW academics
		Professor Mackerras was recognised for his service to the community in raising public awareness of and encouraging debate about the political process in Australia and other western democracies.
		He is one of the best-known election analysts in the country and claims to have correctly predicted the outcome of two in three elections, since he started observing them professionally in 1969.
		Professor Mackerras is best known for creating the Mackerras pendulum, which shows which seats are marginal, which are safe and how far voter sentiment needs to 'swing' to see a change in government.
	www.unsw.edu.au /news/pad/articles/2006/jan/Aust_Day.html (274 words)

	The Parliament of Australia: A Bibliography: Elections/Electoral_Behavior
		Mackerras, Malcolm H. "Considering the Kemp Thesis." Quadrant 23 (January/February 1979): 57-60.
		Mackerras, Malcolm H. "The Dockey Vote." Australian Quarterly 40 (December 1968): 89-92.
		Mackerras, Malcolm H. "Uniform Swing: Analysis of the 1975 Election." Politics 11 (May 1976): 41-46.
	www.indiana.edu /~librcsd/bib/australia_parliament/Elections/Electoral_Behavior/more2.html (768 words)

	Australian Republican Movement - Speeches & Articles - John Warhurst 01-10-03, THE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN IN AUSTRALIA
		When the then leader of the Australian Republican Movement (ARM), Malcolm Turnbull, reckoned during the campaign that the 1999 referendum might be Australians' one and only chance to vote for an Australian Head of State he was dismissed as a scare monger.
		Mackerras and Maley estimate that, compared to the 1998 federal election, Labor voters voted 57-43 YES, Liberals 35-65 YES and Nationals 20-80 YES (p 89).
		Mackerras and Maley argue that the constitutional monarchy is a ' Condorcet winner'.
	www.republic.org.au /ARM-2001/speeches&articles/archives/2003/spa_warhurst011003.htm (6271 words)

	CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION - Tuesday, 3 February 1998 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		We are a unified group, from the robustness and energy of Malcolm Turnbull to the effervescent passion of Janet Holmes a Court to the quiet dignity of Hazel Hawke or the wisdom of Peter Tannock-all united in the view that we should have an Australian as our head of state.
		They appear to be distinctly separate models but, in fact, both positions are simply variations on the one theme: that we return to the past, that we keep the Constitution as it is-one designed for a constitutional monarchy, with only the minor change of nomenclature.
		More recently, Malcolm Mackerras published an analysis which showed that even in spite of a majority vote overall in support of a republic the small states could conceivably defeat that majority-that is, repudiate the referendum proposal.
	www.australianpolitics.com /issues/republic/convention/03_02_8.shtml (12253 words)

	The Oz Politics Blog » The 2007 Mackerras Pendulum
		What actually happened is Australia’s foremost psephologist, Malcolm Mackerras has produced his electoral pendulum for the 2007 Federal election, following the recently proposed (but not finalised) boundary changes in Queensland and New South Wales.
		When Mackerras releases his “pendulum” for the 2007 election, it will show that the new “median seat” - the least marginal Coalition seat required to fall for a change of government - will be Eden-Monaro, in rural NSW.
		Oddly, Mackerras overlooks the fact that the pendulum is not uniform (he of all people should know this!).
	www.ozpolitics.info /blog/?p=385 (1953 words)

	Former speaker likely to lose seat: election analyst. 20/02/2006. ABC News Online
		A veteran election analyst is predicting that Labor will pick up an extra six Lower House seats at next month's state election in South Australia.
		Malcolm Mackerras is a visiting fellow in political science at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
		Mr Mackerras says independent MP Rory McEwen and the Nationals' Karlene Maywald should retain their seats.
	www.abc.net.au /news/newsitems/200602/s1573823.htm (169 words)

	City planner had a vision splendid - smh.com.au
		Through his ballerina aunt, Briger had met in London a dancer from Sydney by the name of Elizabeth Mackerras, the first Australian to work with the Swiss State Theatre Company and the sister of the noted international conductor Sir Charles Mackerras.
		When he arrived in Australia, Briger had no friends or family, so started visiting the Mackerras clan, who were keen opera buffs and fascinated by Briger's Russian heritage and ability to translate Mussorgsky's Boris Godunov.
		Through Malcolm, he became a member of the Civic Reform Group, which was to become prominent in local government in Sydney in the late '60s and early '70s.
	www.smh.com.au /articles/2003/06/08/1055010872311.html (1174 words)

	Malcolm Mackerras is wrong (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Rev Dr Gordon Moyes MLC predicts that Malcolm Mackerras is wrong on his predictions for the NSW Upper House as reported in The Australian today.
		It is apparent that Malcolm Mackerras has not taken into account the recent turmoil within the Democrats party.”
		“Malcolm Mackerras stated that his predictions were wrong at the last state election.
	www.christiandemocratic.org.au /fed/mr/2003/030224.asp (256 words)

	Crikey - Politics Etc - The skewed pendulum in Victoria
		On the principle that it's not real until Malcolm Mackerras says it, many readers will be focusing on the detail of next week's Victorian election only with the publication of Mackerras's pendulum in today's Australian.
		The polls are showing a small swing against the government - just under 3% in the last Newspoll – but it will be difficult for the opposition to make a corresponding gain in seats.
		On the other hand, if there is much movement in the electorate, then even with a small overall swing against Labor the deviations from uniformity could be expected to knock off one or two vulnerable Liberal seats, simply because there are so many of them.
	www.crikey.com.au /Politics/20061114-The-skewed-pendulum-in-Victoria.html (497 words)

	Archibald acclaim draws early birds - Arts - www.smh.com.au
		a portrait of Malcolm Mackerras by Lana McLean was one of the first paintings delivered for the Archibald Prize.
		The first Archibald entry into the loading bay was a two-metre-by-one-metre oil painting of political analyst Malcolm Mackerras by first-time entrant Lana McClean.
		She chose Mackerras because "I admire his substantial intellect and expertise, but also because of his interesting and complex personality and charm".
	www.smh.com.au /news/Arts/Archibald-acclaim-draws-early-birds/2005/04/11/1113071911190.html (343 words)

	Download "Economic change and the legitimation of inequality" article
		Jonathan Kelley, M.D.R. Evans, Malcolm Mearns and Bruce Headey.
		2002 Pps 113-130 and 243-252 in Constitutional Politics: The Republic Referendum and the Future (John Warhurst and Malcolm Mackerras, eds.) University of Queensland Press.
		The 1999 referendum on becoming a republic with a president selected by Parliament was the first – but probably not the last – time these issues came to a vote in Australia.
	www.international-survey.org /Republic_chapter_2002_abstract.htm (276 words)

	CNN.com - Iraq fails to sway Australia poll - Oct 6, 2004
		While many Australians disapproved of the war and thought it was a negative for Howard, the issue would not be enough to change their vote, he said.
		This was partly because the Australian commitment had not been particularly costly and no Australian soldiers had been killed in the Iraq action.
		Mackerras predicted a comfortable victory margin for Howard's coalition of around 12 seats in the governing 150-seat House of Representatives.
	edition.cnn.com /2004/WORLD/asiapcf/10/06/australia.election (711 words)

	Jewish influence a mystery (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		The community's ability to sway the most powerful politicians in the land confounds political observers such as Dr Clive Bean, of the Australian National University Research School of Social Sciences, and Mr Malcolm Mackerras, one of Australia's most prominent political electoral analysts.
		At best, analysts suggest that where ethnic groups appear to vote as something of a bloc the vote is more likely to be determined by problems common to migrant groups -- such as unemployment and access to social services -- rather than membership of any community.
		For these reasons Mr Mackerras suspects that, such as it is, the ethnic vote will favour Labour.
	www.gwb.com.au /gwb/news/pc/jew2.htm (666 words)

	Recordins of Pineapple Poll
		Correspondent Malcolm Walker reports that this recording was made 27-29 April 1951 in EMI No. 1 Studio, Abbey Road, London, on matrix numbers: 2EA 15822-33.
		Correspondent Malcolm Walker reports that this recording was made 28 August 1951 in EMI No. 1 Studio, Abbey Road, London, on matrix numbers CXE 13563-68.
		Ironically, the Verdi material diminishes one's measure of Mackerras's achievement in Pineapple Poll, as the two pieces sound extremely similar, which suggests that Mackerras is not the master orchestrator many GandS fans have given him credit for.
	www.cris.com /~oakapple/gasdisc/pinpoll-dtl.htm (686 words)

	The Mackerras/Telarc Mikado
		The Mackerras recordings, like Sargent's a generation ago, use grand opera singers (for the most part) rather than GandS specialists.
		Musical values are superb, though Mackerras is not overly concerned with textual issues.
		The Mackerras recordings have a spirit and life to them that the Sargent recordings never quite reached.
	www.concentric.net /~oakapple/gasdisc/mikmack.htm (193 words)

	The Samuel Griffith Society: Volume 11: Chapter Ten
		Answer: Liberal Party luminaries concoct radical schemes of "Senate reform", and assure gullible journalists that either scheme could be implemented by a simple act of the federal Parliament.
		When a difficult fellow like Malcolm Mackerras argues that the schemes are unconstitutional, you get your journalist friends to ignore him or put him down.
		The distinguished former Senator, Malcolm Colston, decided to make his last contribution to the Senate very recently.
	www.samuelgriffith.org.au /papers/html/volume11/v11chap10.htm (4614 words)

	Malcolm Mackerras: Labor will hold on, just \| News \| The Australian (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Malcolm Mackerras: Labor will hold on, just
		Article no longer available "Malcolm Mackerras: Labor will hold on, just"
		Due to copyright restrictions, this story is no longer available at NEWS.com.au.
	www.theaustralian.news.com.au /story/0,20867,20144756-601,00.html (115 words)

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