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Topic: Marginal seat

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	Safe seat - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		A safe seat is a seat in a legislative body (e.g., Congress, Parliament, City Council) which is regarded as fully secured by a certain political party with very little chance of an election upset because of the nature of the electorate in the constituency concerned.
		Examples of safe seats are in the Labour Party heartlands of urban northeast England and those of the Conservative Party in the shires.
		Marginals are generally concentrated in the middle-class outer-suburban areas of Australia's larger state capitals, which decide most Australian federal elections.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Safe_seat (624 words)

	MORI - Dr Paul Baines' ITN Analysis Tuesday 26 April 2005
		Marginality tends to be defined in Britain as a seat where a first-placed party has an electoral majority over the second placed party (as a proportion of the votes cast within the constituency at the last election) of 10% and below.
		Identifying marginal constituencies is one of the most important aspects of an election campaign; regarded as a crucial exercise by all parties and typically forms the first stage of a voter segmentation exercise.
		Marginal constituencies typically contain a proportion of floating voters; those who have either not made her mind up who to vote for and are currently undecided, or who have changed their vote from that cast previously but is not certain to vote.
	www.mori.com /publications/plb/marginal-seat-picture.shtml (1574 words)

	Marginal seat - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		A marginal seat is a district or constituency held with a particularly small majority in a Parliamentary election conducted under a non-proportional electoral system.
		These seats require a smaller swing to change hands and are therefore typically the focus of most of the parties' campaign resources.
		Holders of safe seats tend to get far less discretionary resources--governmental as well as political-- from their political party than do holders of marginal seats.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Marginal_seat (194 words)

	Channel 4 - Election 2005
		A marginal seat is a district or constituency held with a particularly small majority.
		In the most marginal seats the party is defending from the Labour Party, its share of the vote is currently 43%.
		The pro-hunting lobby is expected to target marginal seats during the election campaign, and one of the trade unions may focus on a constituency where lots of jobs had been moved offshore – for example, by relocating a call centre to India.
	www.channel4.com /news/microsites/E/election2005/swingseats.html (477 words)

	Method and system for determining marginal values for use in a revenue management system - Patent 5918209
		Each flight leg requires a marginal value which is itself dependent on the particular capacity of the airplane used and the known or expected demand for that flight leg as determined by the demand for all sequences of flight legs that carry passengers from their point of origin to their point of destination.
		The marginal values for seats on the flight leg departures are determined using a continuous optimization function using interdependencies among the flight leg departures and the flight path departures in the internal data structures.
		Marginal values determined by the MVS 16 are used by the airline reservations system 14 in granting or denying the sale of seats on one or more of the flight legs 10 departing on some future date.
	www.freepatentsonline.com /5918209.html (15715 words)

	Classification of divisions following the 2001 Federal Election
		Seat status is generally based on the two party preferred results of the last federal election.
		Seat status is generally based on the two party preferred results of the last election.
		However, in seats where Labor and the Coalition were not the final two candidates, the seat status is based on the two candidate result (eg marginal independent).
	www.aec.gov.au /_content/When/elections/2001/seat.htm (251 words)

	OR/MS Today - October 1998 - Revenue Management
		Consider, for example, a leg where condition (1.) is not satisfied; that is, suppose carrier A determines that the marginal revenue it could generate from an additional seat on leg (l) is $400 while carrier B determines that the marginal revenue it could generate from an additional seat on leg (l) is $100.
		Because demand is stochastic, all marginal revenues are at best expected values; to provide a true measure of marginal seat revenue the full effect of the seat on network revenues must be accounted for.
		In resource directive decomposition, the central coordinator proposes seat allotments to individual carriers, who in turn provide their assessment of the marginal revenue of seats on each leg under this allotment back to the central coordinator, who uses these marginal revenues to propose another, better set of seat allotments.
	www.lionhrtpub.com /orms/orms-10-98/boyd.html (3047 words)

	Virtual fare methods for a computerized airline seat inventory control system (US5270921)
		The seat inventory control system, based on a concept termed Network-Based Expected Marginal Seat Revenue (EMSR), does not require the large number of variables required by the other network-based approaches, and it incorporates a probabilistic demand model without resorting to computationally intractable integer programming.
		Seat inventory control is the periodic adjustment of nested booking limits for the various fare classes so as to optimize the passenger mix and thereby maximize the generated revenue.
		's and the total number of seats assigned to the itinerary pa nd fare class i combinations for recording the seat reservation request in the database, and for transmitting an electronic status indication of the seat reservation request from the computer to the reservation terminal means.
	www.delphion.com /details?pn10=US05270921 (1707 words)

	1996 Divisional Classifcations (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		Seat status is generally based on the two party preferred results of the previous general election.
		Marginal seat: where the winning candidate obtained less than 56% of the two party preferred vote;
		LP and NP seats are only regarded as marginal, fairly safe or safe as against the ALP, because they are classified according to the aggregate "two party preferred vote" for the coalition parties.
	www.aec.gov.au /_content/When/elections/1996/info/classification.htm (298 words)

	Dennis Pennis's Enormous Election (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		A seat is defined as marginal if the incumbent MP has a majority of less than 3,000.
		Marginal seats are those most likely to change hands during a general election and as such they are hotly contested.
		So be prepared for a stormy ride, securing victory in a marginal seat is one of the most demanding jobs in politics.
	www.bbc.co.uk /election97/enormous/1comanr.htm (474 words)

	Australian Catholic Leaders of Religious Institutes - Publications
		One complicating factor was the anticipated charge of political bias- all but one of the top marginal seats was held by the Coalition.
		The writer's horror at 'Fair Go Fair Share' was intensified by the realisation that the SAO had targeted not just marginal seats but were also considering targeting their most marginal booths.
		And yet, even in the harsh criticism received, the marginal seats campaign was validated - it did speak on inequity and poverty, its causes, its victims, and what this implies for the whole of society.
	www.aclri.catholic.org.au /publications/02_autumn/03.html (1309 words)

	Mail & Guardian Online:
		In a second marginal seat, the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is defending ward 46 in Ekurhuleni (Gauteng's East Rand) which it won with 2 886 votes to the ANC's 1 429 votes.
		In Breede Valley (Worcester) municipality ward 10 in the Western Cape, the DA is not standing in a seat it won in 2000 with 738 votes to the ANC's 604 votes.
		The ANC is defending a marginal seat vacated by its councillor in the Blue Crane Route municipality in ward two against the DA.
	www.mg.co.za /articledirect.aspx?area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__national&articleid=133458 (944 words)

	The World Today - Howard visits marginal Labor seat of Bass in Tasmania
		ELEANOR HALL: For the last 30 years the Tasmanian seat of Bass has been seen as a weathervane of voter intentions and locals are used to seeing quite a lot of federal politicians when an election is pending.
		Bass has been held by Labor on a tight margin since 1998 and is the party's eighth most marginal seat.
		The seat that John Howard and Mark Latham have each already visited this year encompasses the major urban centre of Launceston, rural constituents, heavy industry and forestry.
	www.abc.net.au /worldtoday/content/2004/s1142040.htm (756 words)

	Marginal seat up for grabs as MSP quits (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		LABOUR has been forced into a by-election in its most marginal seat in the Scottish Parliament after the resignation of the sitting member.
		He won the most hotly-contested seat in May with a majority of 25 votes from the Tories.
		He won the seat after a fierce contest with Phil Gallie, the Scottish Tory home affairs spokesman and former MP for Ayr, and won after three recounts.
	www.telegraph.co.uk /htmlContent.jhtml?html=/archive/1999/12/21/nscot121.html (350 words)

	2001 Federal Election: Predictions
		There are a few Coalition seats (on 1998 voting) where Labor's prospects look relatively good: Ballarat, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria, Richmond in NSW, Herbert, Petrie and possibly Ryan in Queensland, Makin and Adelaide in South Australia and the new Darwin seat of Solomon.
		At this stage, 13 marginal seats have been identified that could change hands leaving Labor with a likely net gain of three and needing to pick up just four more seats from the others to govern in its own right.
		Adding the seat of Adelaide in South Australia, Labor and Liberal strategists agree the ALP is leading in eight of the key marginals.
	www.australianpolitics.com /elections/2001/predictions.shtml (1996 words)

	1998 Election - Daily News - Week 5
		Of the 65 seats where preferences were needed to ascertain a winner, the candidate who had the highest percentage of the primary vote went on to win in 58 seats.
		In 3 of the seats (Page, Capricornia and Leichhardt) where the primary lead was overturned on preferences, the result went against the ALP because of a 3-cornered contest where the Liberal and National candidates swapped preferences.
		Many marginal seat candidates have either letterboxed or posted one leaflet per week since the election was announced at the end of August.
	www.australianpolitics.com /elections/1998/news5.shtml (6798 words)

	Journalist Fiona Jones lost her marginal Labour seat at the general election, claiming there had been a vendetta in her ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		Journalist Fiona Jones lost her marginal Labour seat at the general election, claiming there had been a vendetta in her constituency of Newark, in Nottinghamshire: Regional Journalism in the UK on the Internet.
		Journalist Fiona Jones lost her marginal Labour seat at the general election, claiming there had been a vendetta in her constituency of Newark, in Nottinghamshire.
		She was a key target for the Conservatives, whose Patrick Mercer took the seat with 20,983 votes to the 16,910 of the sitting MP.
	www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk /news/2001/06june/010609woe.shtml (241 words)

	Politics \| Lib Dems battle Tories in marginal byelection
		The marginal seat was left vacant when the Liberal Democrat MP, Patsy Calton, died of cancer just weeks after her re-election.
		Cheadle was the most marginal seat in the country going into the May 5 general election, when Ms Calton boosted her majority from just 33 to 4,020.
		In another byelection in the borough last month at Goresbrook, Labour recaptured a seat, depriving the BNP of their only council representation in the capital.
	politics.guardian.co.uk /print/0,3858,5238878-107980,00.html (460 words)

	The Marginal-Ridge Rest Seat
		The seat is prepared at a 45º angle to the proximal surface, across the marginal ridge of the clinical crown.
		The seat is positioned incisogingivally in the middle third of the crown, with the base of the seat at a right angle to the long axis of the tooth
		A flat-ended shoulder diamond 1 mm in diameter is passed across the marginal ridge at a 45º angle to the proximal surface.
	www.cda-adc.ca /jcda/vol-66/issue-8/428.html (1254 words)

	American Antitrust Institute - Activities (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		If the plane is going to fly and it has an empty seat, the marginal cost for that seat is next to nothing.
		In other words, if the airline had to charge the marginal cost of one seat for all of its seats, it would quickly be bankrupt.
		Thus, the marginal cost test would not reflect a test of relative efficiencies; it would be a sentence of death to new entrants.
	www.antitrustinstitute.org /recent/6.cfm (1613 words)

	marginal hacks
		To compound their marginal existence, they are facing eviction for non-payment of rent in their Kalookan City apartment...
		dominate the broadcast news throughout the day, voters in marginal constituencies would discuss it over a pint in their local that evening, and newspaper hacks would dutifully prepare stories on the subject ready to...
		Marginal means of the two factors were examined...
	nerdlib.com /generated/marginal_hacks.html (1007 words)

	ozpolitics.info (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		Until the betting pools in Australia are large enough there will be the oppurtunity for one side or the other to intervene in the market.The marginal seat betting itself is enough to indicate that with large betting swings back to one side.
		One of his key findings in the 2001 election was that, in terms of the election eve odds on over 40 marginal seats, only three of the favourites did not get up.
		Rumours of people who had made a fortune betting on the marginal seat odds in 2001 because they represented a better return on investment than the overall odds.
	www.ozpolitics.info /cgi-bin/blog/blog.pl?form=comment&id=104 (1026 words)

	Government 'targets marginal seats with higher education funding' - National - www.smh.com.au
		The Labor-held marginal seat of Bass in Tasmania, which needs a 2.1 per cent swing to oust the sitting member, received almost $5 million for the Australian Maritime College.
		The Coalition's most marginal seat, Solomon, in the Northern Territory (0.1 per cent), received $3 million extra for Charles Darwin University and Batchelor Institute of Indigenous Tertiary Education.
		And the Liberal-held marginal seat of Herbert in Queensland, held by a 1.5 per cent margin, was given an extra 12 places for its James Cook Medical School.
	www.smh.com.au /articles/2004/05/13/1084289822660.html?from=storyrhs (419 words)

	simon jackman’s blog » John Howard, Bennelong, and Malcolm Mackerras (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		Malcolm Mackerras has been on this one for a while: that Bennelong is increasingly a marginal seat and if it looks sufficiently dodgy, Howard will resign, rather than risk the ignominy of losing his seat.
		But try telling that to Pauline Hanson, who had her seat of Oxley dissected when Queensland was redistributed between the 1996 and 1998 elections (gaining the new seat of Blair).
		A redraw that made it a notional 1% seat would be fairly radical, if indeed possible: it’s not about to cross the harbour into Labor territory, and the further north or east it goes the better things get for the Libs.
	jackman.stanford.edu /blog/?p=46 (981 words)

	Crosby's marginal seat strategy gives Labour something to worry about - World
		The strategy of intense targeting of marginal seats - devised by Howard's Australian campaign director, Lynton Crosby - partly succeeded.
		On Thursday they had 32 per cent, a figure that has risen only marginally since their support plummeted with the collapse of the pound in 1992.
		More successful were the Liberal Democrats, who went from 19 to as high as 23 per cent of the vote and in the process gained at least 10 seats.
	www.smh.com.au /news/World/Crosbys-marginal-seat-strategy-gives-Labour-something-to-worryabout/2005/05/07/1115092690837.html (716 words)

	Kleczka Won't Run Again (Democrat Congressman from Milwaukee to Retire)
		If this were a marginal seat, I'd probably question leaving at this time, but I feel very confident that my successor will be a Democrat.
		The surprise announcement leaves the seat open for only the third time since 1948 and seems certain to set off an election free-for-all with a broad ripple effect across the local political landscape.
		Seat solidly Democratic Kleczka's move is particularly surprising because post-census redistricting removed the Waukesha County portion of the 4th District and added Milwaukee's north side.
	www.freerepublic.com /focus/f-gop/1065532/posts (2157 words)

	Wind farm ban a marginal call \| News \| The Australian (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-23)
		With the 52-turbine project in the heart of Victoria's Gippsland a stormy local issue, Liberal candidate Russell Broadbent was anxious for Campbell to rule a line through the $220million proposal in a bid to steal a march on his Labor rival in the area.
		While Campbell formally put Bald Hills on hold three days after Broadbent won the seat, it was not until April this year that he killed off the wind farm, citing the threat to the orange-bellied parrot, an issue that Broadbent now admits was not on the radar in the 2004 campaign.
		The Weekend Australian can reveal that not only did Campbell reject his own department's advice to approve the wind farm, he kept on commissioning studies despite being told that further research was inappropriate and that the threat to the bird was "negligible".
	www.theaustralian.news.com.au /story/0,20867,19947657-601,00.html (1763 words)

	2004 Federal Election. Chisholm Electorate Profile. Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC)
		Labor won the seat as it swept into office in 1983, but lost the seat to the Liberal Party's Michael Wooldridge in 1987, one of only two electorates won by the Coalition at John Howard's first election as Leader.
		Given the difficult nature of his Health portfolio, it is therefore not surprising that Wooldridge chose to move to the safer seat of Casey in 1998, Labor winning Chisholm with a 4.7% swing.
		Labor retained the seat 2001, increasing its vote by 0.7%.
	www.abc.net.au /elections/federal/2004/guide/chis.htm (313 words)

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