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Topic: Medium Range Forecast Model

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	USATODAY.com (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		The ocean model coupled with the atmospheric model is used to forecast events such as an El Nino warming event in the Pacific Ocean and in long range seasonal outlooks.
		The NGM is a short range model that forecasts variables such as temperature at various levels of the atmosphere, amount of precipitation, position of upper level toughs and ridges, and the position of surface high and low pressure areas.
		The model does not forecast for large distances away from the hurricane because its main focus is the development and the movement of the hurricane.
	www.usatoday.com /weather/wmodlist.htm (1220 words)

	HURRICANE ALLEY - Hurricane Models
		forecasts are used to normalize the output from the other forecast models and as benchmark for tracking forecasting model skill.
		For tropical cyclone forecasts, it uses synthetic observations of s storm's core that are constructed from an estimate of the central pressure, the value and radius of maximum low-level winds, the radii of 34-knot winds, and the radius and pressure of the outermost closed isobar.
		The model consists of a set of equations derived from the Newtonian equations of motion and the continuity equation applied to a rotating fluid with a free surface.
	www.hurricanealley.net /hurmdls.htm (2839 words)

	Radiation and Atmospheric
		Forecast models primarily use atmospheric chemistry as it pertains to the radiative properties of the model's simulated environment.
		The ability of the model to forecast cloud coverage is of key importance to the radiation budget as it affects minimum and maximum predicted temperatures.
		This depends on the convective parameterization scheme used by a particular model and is a key focus for further research and potential improvements to forecast models.
	www.met.tamu.edu /class/metr452/models/2001/radiation.html (2380 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		Previous studies have suggested that numerical models are incapable of producing realistic numbers of blocks, however, the ten-year model run is able to produce realistic numbers of blocks for selected geographic regions and seasons.
		A set of 60-day forecasts by the MRF is used to evaluate the evolution of the model blocking climatology with lead time (blocking climate drift) for a 90-day period in autumn of 1990.
		It is argued that this lack of a direct transition between observed and model blocking climates is the result of a drift in the underlying climate (for example, the positions of the jet streams) in the MRF forecasts.
	www.gfdl.noaa.gov /~gth/netscape/1993/jla9301.html (341 words)

	RAP Projects - UAE Rainfall Enhancement Project - Realtime MM5 Forecasts
		A modeling system with factors of ten greater resolution than the global models was necessary to study cloud development and local meteorology of the region.
		The initial background state and boundary conditions at later times are supplied by gridded large-scale (i.e., global) model forecast data that cover the modeled region for the entire time the model is integrated.
		Forecast data from either the 00Z or 12Z AVN global model has provided the atmospheric conditions as well as the 1° sea surface temperature (SST) data.
	www.rap.ucar.edu /projects/UAE/uae_mm5_forecast.html (1132 words)

	National Meteorological Center: Model NMC MRF (T40 L18) 1992
		The model used for the AMIP experiment is a research version of the 1992 operational NMC Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a modified form of the model documented by the NMC Development Division (1988).
		The model configuration for the AMIP experiment is described by Ebisuzaki and van den Dool (1993) [6].
		Soil moisture is represented by the single-layer "bucket" model of Manabe (1969 [33]), with a uniform field capacity of 0.15 m.
	www-pcmdi.llnl.gov /projects/modeldoc/amip/29nmc.html (2265 words)

	ABSTRACT Summary (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature were generated by a logistic regression technique with the ensemble mean (precipitation) or ensemble mean anomaly (temperature) as the only predictor.
		Forecasts were computed and evaluated during 23 winter seasons from 1979 to 2001.
		This forecast model must remain unchanged until reforecasts have been computed for the next model version, a penalty that will slow down the implementation of model updates.
	www.shvoong.com /www/250207-abstract (321 words)

	Forecast Descriptions
		At the beginning of the forecast for the first ensemble member, nine sets of restart files are generated, each for a successive model day, to yield nine additional forecast initial conditions.
		At the beginning of the forecast for the first ensemble member, nine sets of restart files are generated, each for a successive model day, to yield nine additional forecast initial atmospheric conditions.
		The resolution of the model is 2.5 degrees longitude by 2.5 degrees latitude with 34 vertical layers.
	iri.columbia.edu /forecast/climate/fcst_dscrp.html (1641 words)

	Canadian Weather - Forecast Models and Ensembles (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		This model runs to 10 days (7 days public) and provides data at 24 hour intervals for sea level pressure, 850 mb winds and temperatures and 500 mb heights.
		The NAM model is a regional mesoscale model using enhanced terrain and improved parameterization of surface and precipitation processes.
		This is a 25-layer model with 60 km resolution.
	www.canadianweather.org /models (314 words)

	GFS Introduction (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		The 1981 global spectral model was developed as a result of increased computing power, which enabled spectral models to become competitive with global operational grid point models.
		In fact, the model replaced the seven-level, 191-km grid point primitive equation model used in various configurations since the late 1960s.
		Major changes were made to the global spectral model in 1985 (TPB 351), at which point it was renamed the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) Model.
	meted.ucar.edu /nwp/pcu2/avintro.htm (352 words)

	Meteorological Terminology
		On 6/20/06, the NAM was converted from using Eta physics to WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model physics.
		The standard RUC model is based on the NAM data system and is updated every hour for periods up to 12 hours.
		All models have their specific biases, inaccuracies, etc. New forms of each model are constantly being developed and tested.
	theweatherguy.net /info.html (745 words)

	AWN Computer forecast model links
		The US models of most interest to Australia are the GFS (Global Forecast System) operated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) operated by the US Navy.
		Forecast charts are available for dozens of parameters out to 7 days in increments as little as 3 hours.
		Forecasts in 3-hour increments out to 48 hours are given for most of the usual parameters, but also for cloud tops, surface and jet stream winds, surface wind chill and heat index, freezing level, precipitation type (including severe thunderstorms), icing and turbulence hazards, and lifted index and totals totals instability indexes.
	australianweathernews.com /forecast_models.htm (1504 words)

	forecast_checklist (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		There are several weather models you can use to help forecast, two that are commonly used are the Eta and NGM.
		Before we go further, we should understand these models are very complex; they have enormous mathematical equations contained in them and they require substantial computational power to perform their routine calculations.
		The medium range forecast models are coarser than the short-range models whereas the Meso Scale models are finer.
	www.atmos.umd.edu /~charles/forecast_checklist.htm (1385 words)

	Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies: Model COLA COLA1.1 (R40 L18) 1993
		The COLA model is derived from the NMC Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model (cf.
		For the AMIP experiment, the model atmospheric state is initialized from the NMC analysis for 1 January 1979, with nonlinear normal mode initialization also performed (cf.
		Within the single-story vegetation canopy, evapotranspiration from dry leaves includes detailed modeling of stomatal and canopy resistances; direct evaporation from the wet canopy and from bare soil is also treated (see Surface Fluxes).
	www-pcmdi.llnl.gov /projects/modeldoc/amip/14cola.html (2251 words)

	5.5 Ensemble Re-Forecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts (2004 - 17PROBSTA) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		The value of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach to improving 6-10 day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature and precipitation is demonstrated.
		Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature were generated using a logistic regression technique with the ensemble mean (precipitation) or ensemble mean anomaly (temperature) as the only predictor.
		This forecast model must remain unchanged until re-forecasts have been computed for the next model version, a penalty which will slow down the implementation of model updates.
	ams.confex.com /ams/84Annual/techprogram/paper_69840.htm (344 words)

	Introduction
		All forecast models have similar methods of analyzing the input data to produce a forecast.
		The overall goal of the WRF Model project is to develop a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that will advance both the understanding and prediction of important mesoscale precipitation systems, and promote closer ties between the research and operational forecasting communites.
		The model is being developed as a collaborative effort among several organizations including the NSF, Dept. of Commerce, and the Dept. of Defense, together with the participation of a number of university scientists.
	www.met.tamu.edu /class/metr452/models/2001/analysis.html (1391 words)

	forecastchecklist2 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		Some forecasting tools that will be useful for your prediction are the images and charts you just reviewed as well as several different weather models.
		To aid you in the forecasting process, several weather forecast models are available for your use.
		Both models not only forecast conditions at the surface, but also forecast conditions for the upper levels of the atmosphere that you have previously examined.
	www.atmos.umd.edu /~charles/forecastchecklist2.htm (1317 words)

	ADDE Dataset Definition file, NOGRIB.CFG
		if this # value is set to -1 then all valid times are not decoded # 5 maximum valid time in range to not be decoded (hh).
		# 9 maximum pressure level in range not to be decoded.
		# 10 minimum parameter number in range not to be decoded.
	www.unidata.ucar.edu /software/mcidas/2004/users_guide/NOGRIB.html (270 words)

	In a recent article, Fosberg and Fujioka (1987) described the use of national
		Removing the systematic bias and evaluating the true forecast skill from a still limited number of operational forecasts is frustrating and we have to be patient in developing a robust bias and skill evaluation.
		However, daily or weekly or monthly forecast skill does not ever reach absolute zero and the residual weekly forecast skill, when averaged into monthly and seasonal averages, shows skill levels that are significant and comparable to other long range forecasts.
		Atmospheric forecasts forced by SSTs from this ocean model as well as forecasts from a hybrid tropical ocean atmosphere model will be evaluated as possible replacements for the current persistent SST anomalies.
	grads.iges.org /ellfb/Sep98/roads.html (1489 words)

	Hydro-Climate Research and Decision Making - Hydrologic Model Inputs
		We have developed statistical downscaling models (SDS) to derive 14-day forecasts of 6-hourly mean areal precipitation (MAP) and mean areal temperature (MAT) from the 20+ years archive of the NCEP-1998 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) medium range forecast (MRF) model for the Upper Colorado River Basin (CBRFC).
		We have developed a method to condition this generation of weather sequences upon large-scale climate indices such as the ENSO or conditioning on probabilistic forecasts such as exceedance probabilities of climate variables in seasonal outlooks from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center).
		Due to skills in temperature forecasts, we are obtaining improved results for snowmelt dominated basins, but for rainfall dominated basins there are no significant improvements.
	sciencepolicy.colorado.edu /hydroclimate/inputs.html (367 words)

	NMC Model Output Data from the Persian Gulf Region During the Kuwait Oil Fires
		Climate model analyses of atmospheric and surface conditions in the Persian Gulf region were carried out to study the effects of the Kuwait oil fires during 1991.
		MRF model analysis data were obtained at 0000 and 1200 GMT at vertical levels from the surface, 1000 mb through 50 mb.
		The data is on vertical levels ranging from the surface (precipitation, pressure), and on sigma surfaces from 0.995 to 0.467 sigma (specific humidity, temperature and winds.
	gcmd.nasa.gov /records/GCMD_KUDA_MODEL.html (521 words)

	Numerical Model Description (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		Each model has it's own idea of how the atmosphere will behave and, thus, each model will paint a different picture of what the weather is going to be like 12, 24, 48, or more hours in the future.
		There are also other models available: the ETA/Meso-ETA for high-quality short-term forecasts and the ECMWF (European) and Canadian models (which have lower resolution over the U.S.), to name a few.
		The forecaster's job is to pick out which source he/she thinks is giving the most accurate representation of what the weather will be doing and then write the forecast based on that model or source, or a combination of several.
	home.midsouth.rr.com /memweather/models.html (671 words)

	esm_aguado_uwac_3\|Weather Forecasting and Analysis\|Destinations
		Get medium- and longe-range forecasts for a week to a year into the future at this site, as well as information on current climate highlights from around the world.
		This is like the previous MOS forecasts, but uses twice-daily intervals for each of the next 8 days.
		Forecasts of precipitation and high/low temperature for North American regions.
	wps.prenhall.com /esm_aguado_uwac_3/0,7836,737893-,00.html (279 words)

	Forecast Maps
		The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a "spectral" numerical model designed to forecast the entire globe for long duration (10 days and beyond).
		GFS is a new model which replaces the old AVN (AViatioN) or MRF (Medium-Range Forecast) model.
		This model contains the most sophisticated physics of the models run at NCEP and is on par with research numerical models like MM5 (Mesoscale Model 5).
	www.weather.lanl.gov /forecast_maps.asp (155 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		Because of the greater public interest and concern for weekend weather, many forecasters use the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model of the National Weather Service to make an early forecast of the coming weekend, often announcing on a Tuesday or Wednesday, that we should anticipate a lousy or a lovely weekend.
		If these forecasts have been misleading lately it may be partially due to a fire at the National Weather Service Computing Facility in Suitland, MD. This fire took place on September 27th inside a Cray C90 supercomputer used to make numerical weather forecasts.
		There are other backup sources of information and other forecast models available for meteorologists to use, however the information flow is certainly not 100 percent.
	climate.umn.edu /cawap/agrinews/991007.txt (409 words)

	about NCAR-RAP Numerical Model data page
		This model contains the most sophisticated physics of the models run at NCEP and is on par with research numerical models like MM5 and RAMS.
		The Eta model was recently extended to 60 hours and runs 4 times per day (currently this site only offers the original 00/12z model cycles).
		The Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model is a component of the Global Spectral Model and forecasts to 10 days (and beyond).
	www.rap.ucar.edu /weather/info/about_model.html (229 words)

	Central American Forest Fires Smoke Prediction Using Hysplit_4
		The HYSPLIT model is first run for the previous two days using a series of short-term forecasts obtained from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Avation Model (AVN) to create a residual plume for initialization.
		Numerous uncertainties exist in these forecast products including the current fire sizes and locations, and the relatively coarse horizontal and vertical resolution of the AVN meteorological model forecast fields.
		Also, the model is not initialized with older smoke (greater than 2 days old) which may have travelled far beyond the source area.
	www.arl.noaa.gov /ready/yucatanfire.html (522 words)

	Virginia Climate Advisory 01/08 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-04)
		The fact is that our ability to predict weather in the five-to-seven day range is now about as good as it was in the three-day range when most of us middle-agers were growing up.
		After consulting one of my favorite medium range models, I am convinced that there is going to be a killing frost from the Blue Ridge westward on Monday and possibly Tuesday mornings, October 8 and 9.
		Under "forecasts" (left side of the page) are two models: MRF and ECMWF, which stand for "Medium Range Forecast" model and "European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting," respectively.
	climate.virginia.edu /advisory/2001/ad01-08.htm (1477 words)

	Medium range forecast - Harry F
		Forecasts UEA Long Range Weather Forecast The Telegraph has some good Press Association Weather Forecast European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasting : forecast charts More Weather
		Gartner Dataquest now forecasts a milder downturn thancreating a better medium term supply/demand2005, market growth is forecast to be about 1 percent range.
		Forecast charts from 3 to 6 days ahead are available from European Centre for MediumRangeForecasts.
	www.harryfanaticos.net /fins/medium/medium-range-forecast.html (219 words)

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