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Topic: Monty Hall problem


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In the News (Sun 29 Nov 09)

  
  Quantum Monty Hall problem - Uncyclopedia, the content-free encyclopedia
The Quantum Monty Hall problem is a moral dilemma stemming from the conditional probability paradox conventionally known as the Monty Hall Problem.
The original Monty Hall problem has a Monty Hall solution in which the conditional probabilities of a grand prize being behind each of the three curtains are compared prior to and following your initial decision.
A physicist who had confoosed this for a math problem discovered that when Monty reveals a curtain to not have the prize, he raises the probability that the remaining curtain has the prize from 1/3 to 1/2, thus dictating that you should always change your decision.
uncyclopedia.org /wiki/Quantum_Monty_Hall_problem   (365 words)

  
  Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The problem is also called the Monty Hall paradox; it is a veridical paradox in the sense that the solution is counterintuitive, although the problem does not yield a logical contradiction.
One common criticism of the Monty Hall problem is that the assumptions about the host's behavior are not specified, such as when the original question was posed to Marilyn vos Savant in 1990.
The Monty Hall problem is discussed, from the perspective of a boy with Asperger syndrome, in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time, a 2003 novel by Mark Haddon.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Monty_Hall_problem   (4769 words)

  
 Kids.Net.Au - Encyclopedia > Monty Hall problem   (Site not responding. Last check: )
The problem's main claim to fame is that after its solution was discussed in Marylin vos Savant's "Ask Marylin" question-and-answer column of Parade magazine in 1990, many readers including several math professors wrote in to declare that her solution was wrong.
The classical answer to this problem is yes, because the chances of winning the prize are twice as high when the player switches to another door than they are when the player sticks with their original choice.
Monty then eliminated a player with a goat behind their door (if both players had a goat, one was eliminated randomly, without letting the players know about it), opened the door and then offered the remaining player a chance to switch.
www.kids.net.au /encyclopedia-wiki/mo/Monty_Hall_problem   (1017 words)

  
 Monty Hall - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hall himself gave a pretty good explanation of the solution to that problem, and why the solution did not apply to the case of the actual show, in an interview with New York Times reporter John Tierney in 1991.
Hall received his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Manitoba, where he majored in chemistry and zoology as a pre-med student.
In role-playing games a "Monty Hall" can be an adventure design where one arbitrary choice greatly affects the outcome, such as two doors with a beautiful lady behind one and a tiger behind the other (in the famous short story by Frank R. Stockton).
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Monty_Hall   (730 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem
If the Monty Hall problem ended with the selection of the first door (and that would be a very dull problem, indeed), we could safely predict that one time out of three, the door picked will contain a prize; and that the contestant will go home with a brand-new Kenmore washer and dryer.
Monty Hall then opens one of the two remaining doors, and reveals to you that it does not contain a prize.
In this case, Monty Hall has no choice in what door to open for you - he has to open the rightmost door, because that's the only one of the two that does not hide the prize.
www.ece.sunysb.edu /~ese306/monty.html   (1611 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Debate
Hall said he was not surprised at the experts' insistence that the probability was 1 out of 2.
Hall said he realized the contestants were wrong, because the odds on Door 1 were still only 1 in 3 even after he opened another door.
Hall opens another door doesn't affect the odds on Door 1: You had a one-third chance of being right to begin with, and you still have a one-third chance after he opens, say, Door 3.
www25.brinkster.com /ranmath/marlright/montynyt.htm   (2182 words)

  
 Monty Hall
In our problem, the contestant chooses door A and Monty opens B and we want to know the probability that C has the car given that Monty opens B. Now, all the probabilities relevant to Monty opening B are shown inside a square in the diagram.
However, it is conceivable that Monty might do this if he decides that if he reveals the prize he will move items around and run the whole scenario again until a goat is revealed (and recorded TV has the advantage of only broadcasting this moment).
The problem with The Monty Hall Problem is that the possibilities are not sufficiently narrowed for there to be a unique solution.
barryispuzzled.com /zmonty.htm   (1208 words)

  
 Monty Hall problem
Before that door is opened however, Monty opens one of the two other doors with a goat behind it.
You pick a door, Monty opens 98 that have goats behind them, then he gives you the option of switch to the other remaining closed door.
Monty then eliminated a player with a goat behind their door (if both players had a goat, one was eliminated randomly, without letting the players know about it), opened the door and then offered the remaining player a chance to switch.
www.daviddarling.info /encyclopedia/M/Monty_Hall_problem.html   (514 words)

  
 Monty Hall
Monty now opens one of the doors B and C to reveal that there is no prize there.
I think the reason the Monty Hall problem raises people's ire is because a basic ability to estimate likelihoods of events is important in everyday life.
Monty Hall contestants are, therefore, likely to ignore the first part of the challenge and concentrate on the task facing them after Monty has opened the door.
www.maa.org /devlin/devlin_07_03.html   (2112 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem
This problem goes back a number of years and is used to demonstrate how angry people can get when they don’t agree with an answer.
The problem also demonstrates the need to draw diagrams to be certain that your testing is not negatively influenced by preconceived ideas.
Another way to view the problem is to imagine another person entering the room and seeing two closed doors and one open door.
www.coastaltech.com /monty.htm   (496 words)

  
 Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: The Monty Hall Problem
After Monty has shown a goat behind the door that he opens, the contestant is always given the option to switch doors.
One way to think about this problem is to consider the sample space, which Monty alters by opening one of the doors that has a goat behind it.
If Monty opens 998 doors, all of them with goats behind them, the door that you chose first will still have a 1/1,000 chance of being the one that conceals the car, but the other remaining door will have a 999/1,000 probability of being the door that is concealing the car.
mathforum.org /dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html   (914 words)

  
 Evolutionblog: The Monty Hall Problem
Monty Hall, who knows where the car is, then opens one of the doors that has a goat behind it.
As steve s points out, the problem with this problem is that the questioner sometimes forgets to point out that Monty KNOWS where the car is, and Monty deliberately opens his door to reveal where he knows a goat will be.
Monty's selection is not a random event and he, in effect, changes it to a two door problem where the chances are 1/2 for each of the remaining doors.
evolutionblog.blogspot.com /2006/04/monty-hall-problem.html   (7448 words)

  
 Monty Hall problem - Conservapedia
The Monty Hall Problem is a basic example problem in statistic and probability theory based on the premise of the television show Let's Make a Deal, originally hosted by Monty Hall.
The problem can also be solved by using Bayes' theorem to evaluate the posterior probability that the car is behind the initially chosen door, given that the host has opened another door.
That is, the probability that the prize is behind door 1, given that Monty opens door 2, is 1/3, so the probability that it is behind door 3 is 2/3.
www.conservapedia.com /Monty_Hall_problem   (427 words)

  
 The Monty Hall problem -- over easy
The reason this problem is so popular is that, for most of us, the answer is counterintuitive.
Once 98 of those doors are opened, the information content of those doors becomes 0 and hence the information content of the remaining door in the set is 6.57 versus the measly 0.07 content of the door you chose.
The Monty Hall problem is easily solved via the rules of conditional probability.
www.angelfire.com /trek/nfold/monty.html   (739 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem (kottke.org)
When he "re-spins" the wheel, the spinning should be relegated to the areas where the door Monty opens actually contains the car, that is when the contestant is not correct with his guess.
Take 1 (Monty Hall according to Phil): Monty can always show you a door that doesn't have the car behind it, and he always will.
The expected value of the certainty Monty provides is 2/3, so it stands to reason that the contestant should be able to get the right answer 2/3 of the time if he/she follows the proper strategy.
www.kottke.org /remainder/04/04/5496.html   (1251 words)

  
 Monty Hall problem analysis - Find and Write Source Code at CodeCodex
These programs demonstrate that the solution to the Monty Hall problem is correct.
This C program demonstrates that the solution to the Monty Hall problem is correct by playing several simulations.
There is another empirical solution of the Monty Hall problem, but it looks like the coder tried to save lines of code rather than make the code obvious to casual passerby.
www.codecodex.com /wiki/index.php?title=Monty_Hall_problem_analysis   (1399 words)

  
 factoids > probability paradoxes
Your host, Monty Hall, tells you that one of the boxes contains a valuable prize, and that the other two are empty.
He explains the rules: you get to choose a box, then he will open one of the remaining boxes to show it is empty, and then you will be offered the chance to change your choice to the remaining closed box, or stick with your original choice.
Monty, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the other two boxes, as promised, and shows you that it is empty.
www-users.cs.york.ac.uk /~susan/cyc/p/prob.htm   (592 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem became the subject of intense controversy because of several articles by Marilyn Vos Savant in the
When we begin to think carefully about the Monty Hall problem, we realize that the statement of the problem by Marilyn's reader is so vague that a meaningful discussion is not possible without clarifying assumptions about the strategies of the host and player.
The Monty Hall experiment will be completely defined mathematically once the joint distribution of the basic variables is specified.
www.ds.unifi.it /VL/VL_EN/games/games6.html   (1905 words)

  
 DCity - The Three Doors   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Monty offers you the contents behind one of three doors (only one door hides something valuable).
After you make your choice, Monty will show you the contents of one of the two remaining doors, which was always a dud prize (like a goat).
Note: In this game, Monty always shows an empty door (goat) after you make your first choice, and then you are always offered a choice of keeping your first choice or to switch to the other door.
www.dcity.org /braingames/3doors/index.htm   (190 words)

  
 Education, Mathematics, Fun, Monty Hall Dilemma from Interactive Mathematics Miscellany and Puzzles
The Monty Hall Dilemma was discussed in the popular "Ask Marylin" question-and-answer column of the Parade magazine.
"In the three-door Monty Hall Dilemma, there are two stages to the decision, the initial pick followed by the decision to stick with it or switch to the only other remaining alternative after the host has shown an incorrect door.
However, as shown here, the counter-intuitive solution to the three-stage Monty Hall Dilemma is to stick in Stage 2 and to switch in Stage 3.
www.cut-the-knot.org /hall.shtml   (2184 words)

  
 [No title]
This problem was given the name The Monty Hall Paradox in honor of the long time host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal." Articles about the controversy appeared in the New York Times and other papers around the country.
The problem says only that Monty opened a door with a goat behind it so we interpret this to mean that if the car is revealed then the game is over and the next contestant plays the game.
This time however, Monty Hall has the option of opening a door with a car behind it, but by chance he didn't.
math.ucsd.edu /~crypto/Monty/montybg.html   (1351 words)

  
 Monty Hall Problem Simulation   (Site not responding. Last check: )
At the end of each episode of Let's Make a Deal, the host, Monty Hall, would give the player with the most winnings a chance to bet it all on a prize between one of three doors.
Then Monty would open one of the other doors behind which contained a goat or demolished car or something, showing that the prize is not behind that door.
The question is "Is is advantageous to switch, or does it not matter?" This is the Monty Hall Problem.
www.u.arizona.edu /~vmiller/applets/montyhall/MontyHallProblem.php   (217 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem Web Page
This problem is quite interesting, because the answer is felt by most people—including mathematicians—to be counter–intuitive.
Monty Hall then opens one of the two remaining doors, and reveals to you that it does not contain a prize.
Also, it would be a silly problem, because we wouldn’t be asking if you should switch generally, because of course in the cases where he shows you that your first choice was incorrect, you’d switch.
www.montyhallproblem.com   (2156 words)

  
 A new approach to the Monty Hall problem
Reams and reams have been written about the Monty Hall problem, but no-one seems to have mentioned a simple fact which, once realised, makes the whole thing seem intuitive.
The Monty Hall show is a (possibly fictional, I'm not sure) TV gameshow.
The host imparts some information to the couple about which door the car is behind, but not enough to tell for the couple to tell for definite which door the car is behind - just enough to shift the probability in favour of the door which they would choose if they opted to "change".
www.reenigne.org /maths/montyhall.html   (1321 words)

  
 torrez.net : Let's Make A Deal   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Monty (who knows which door the prize is behind) now has the option to either open one of the other doors and show you a goat, or just end the game by opening the door you've chosen and giving you whatever is behind it.
Let's say that Monty (or whomever foots the bill for the prize) wants you to lose: in this case you should not switch, because if there was a goat behind door #1 (the one you selected) he would have just ended the game right then and there, giving you no opportunity to change your answer.
You've watched this show a lot in the past and you know (1) Monty didn't have to open one of the doors and show you the goat -- he chose to; (2) Monty knows where the prize is; (3) Monty wants you to lose.
www.torrez.net /archives/lets_make_a_deal.php   (956 words)

  
 Angry Crying: Monty Hall problem - visualize it as a Minesweeper game
In the problem, a prize is hidden behind one of three doors (as in the Let's Make a Deal game show).
If they pick the other door, it is claimed, their chance of winning is higher - seemingly against reason, which suggests that the odds of the prize being behind each remaining door are equal.
Monty hall is a good man and never takes away the grand prize.
www.angrycrying.com /2006/02/monty-hall-problem-visualize-it-as.asp   (464 words)

  
 The Monty Hall Problem, Part 2
We are proceeding on the basis that you have no advance knowledge of which door the automobile is behind and that Monty offers the switch whether you have chosen the correct door or not.
When Monty opened the second door the contestant would think his chance of being right had gone up to 1/2.
Monty knows which door is the right one, and by showing you a wrong one he is giving you valuable information, but the way in which he does it affects the value of the information.
www25.brinkster.com /ranmath/marlright/monty1.htm   (715 words)

  
 Developer Testing: The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem comes up every now and again - it's currently being discussed on the XP mailing list.
The description of the problem is well discussed on the web, so I won't repeat it here.
Everyone I know has who has thought about the Monty Hall problem has got it wrong initially and then, after deeper thought, found the correct answer.
www.developertesting.com /archives/month200504/20050411-TheMontyHallProblem.html   (384 words)

  
 Monty hall problem   (Site not responding. Last check: )
I have decided to talk about the Monty Hall problem to see why the answer is the way it is. Hopefully these perspectives on the problem will allow you to find the solution more believable.
I first ran into this problem many years ago and I've found it to be an excellent question you can share with math and non-math students alike.
The wording of this problem is extremely important and there is a slightly different version of this problem that may cause some confusion.
www.student.uwa.edu.au /~bhatts01/montyhall.html   (629 words)

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