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Topic: Oil Shocks


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  FRB: Speech, Gramlich--Oil shocks and monetary policy--September 16, 2004
In a world where all shocks are on the demand side, policymaking boils down to finding the optimal balance between inflation and unemployment, or in modern parlance, finding the strategy that hits the optimal point on the frontier relating the variances of inflation and unemployment around their target values.
With oil shocks, policymakers are confronted with a new dilemma.
Even if the oil producers are domestic, a drop in domestic demand could still occur if the producers do not spend as much of their new income as consumers would have or if they do not recycle their profits to shareholders.
www.federalreserve.gov /BoardDocs/Speeches/2004/20040916/default.htm   (2593 words)

  
 Oil Price Shocks and Inflation (2005-28, 10/28/2005)
Oil prices have risen sharply over the last year, leading to concerns that we could see a repeat of the 1970s, when rising oil prices were accompanied by severe recessions and surging inflation.
His model used the rate of change of oil prices, the unemployment gap (which is the prevailing unemployment rate relative to a benchmark known as the natural rate of unemployment) and lagged inflation to predict core PCE inflation.
This Letter has argued that oil shocks are sometimes assigned too large a role in the run-up in inflation during the 1970s because analysts tend to ignore the part played by inflation expectations and by monetary policy during this period.
www.frbsf.org /publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-28.html   (1833 words)

  
 FRB: Oil Shocks and External Adjustment
The level of oil imports for the home country is set at 50% of total demand (this determines the local production share of oil in the steady state).
To illustrate this, Figure 8 compares the effects of the oil quantity shock under our benchmark calibration in which the oil elasticity of demand is set to 0.5 with alternatives in which the elasticity is set equal to unity and 0.05 (the same alternatives considered in Figure 2).
As in the case of the supply shock, we assume that the demand shock follows an autoregressive process in the growth rate (the autoregressive parameter is 0.88).
www.federalreserve.gov /pubs/ifdp/2007/897/ifdp897.htm   (8362 words)

  
 Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash
Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope.
Moreover, the oil companies don't give this theory the slightest bit of credence even though they are more motivated than anybody to find an unlimited source of oil as each company's shareholder value is based largely on how much oil it holds in reserve.
Oil is running out; the climate is changing at a potentially catastrophic rate; wars over scarce resources are brewing; finally, most shocking of all, we don't seem to be having enough ideas about how to fix any of these things.
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net   (4412 words)

  
 The Oil Drum | oil shocks
CERA estimated that oil production capacity -- including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, oil sands, gas-to-liquids - could rise to 108 million barrels per day in 2015, up from 87 million barrels per day currently.
Morning Edition, December 1, 2005 · Oil prices are destined to slip somewhat in the coming years, according to British Petroleum CEO Lord John Browne.
British Petroleum is America's largest oil and gas supplier.
www.theoildrum.com /tag/oil_shocks   (268 words)

  
 The Effects of Oil Shocks on the Economy: A Review of the Empirical Evidence: Open CRS Network - CRS Reports for the ...
Economic theory suggests that oil shocks lead to higher inflation, a contraction in output, and higher unemployment in the short run.
Surprisingly, many studies found oil to have had stronger economic effects before the mid-1970s, although the major post-war oil shocks occurred since the mid-1970s.
The studies suggest that the relationship between oil prices and economic activity is not a simple linear one (e.g., episodic oil price declines have negligible economic effects), but there is no straightforward way to identify a more accurate relationship.
www.opencrs.com /document/RL31608   (439 words)

  
 Peak oil primer and links | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half.
Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world, up to 54 have past their peak of production and are now in decline, including the USA in 1970/1, Indonesia in 1997, Australia in 2000, the North Sea in 2001, and Mexico in 2004.
Many of the official sources of data used to model oil peak such as OPEC figures, oil company reports, and the USGS discovery projections, upon which the international energy agencies base their own reports, can be shown to be frighteningly unreliable.
www.energybulletin.net /primer.php   (3034 words)

  
 Econbrowser: Oil shocks and personal saving
A second observation I would like to make about the relation between saving and the 2005 oil shock is that, as Feldstein has of course been emphasizing throughout much of his career, the drop in saving is not something unique to 2005 but is instead the continuation of a longer term trend.
Although the mortgage refinancing and oil shock are unquestionably part of the mechanics of what produced this additional drop in saving in 2005, one also has to think that the long run trend played a very important role as well.
If oil prices were to rise again in 2006 or 2007, the adverse effect on consumers' real incomes would not be offset by increased mortgage refinancing.
www.econbrowser.com /archives/2006/02/oil_shocks_and.html   (1955 words)

  
 FRB: Speech, Gramlich--Oil shocks and monetary policy--September 16, 2004
Their response to oil price increases should focus on these two objectives.
Were policy to try to avoid any rise in unemployment, the initial oil price shock might get passed through to continuing inflation.
Because of such backwardation, this oil price shock still seems to have an important temporary component.
www.federalreserve.gov /boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040916/default.htm   (2593 words)

  
 JRMotorSports.com - Product Info
Bilstein was one of the first shock builders to utilize gases to cool and extend the life of their product.
Bilstein shock absorbers are used worldwide by racers at every level of competition and are constantly being improved by an on going test program.
Kevko oil pans and oil pump pickups are matched for proper fit and are available for many classes of racing.
www.jrmotorsports.com /productinfo.cfm   (0 words)

  
 FOXNews.com - Replay of Past Oil Shocks Unlikely Despite Oil Spike - Business And Money | Business News | Financial News
That certainly would be desired, since beginning in the 1970s the country has suffered a recession in each of the past three decades that was linked in large part to a surge in oil prices driven by instability in the Middle East.
The biggest difference now, economists say, is that this surge in oil prices is driven by soaring demand for oil, not a sudden cutoff in supplies as occurred with the previous oil shocks.
Oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s occurred at a time of sharply rising inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve (search) to respond by aggressively raising interest rates, which had the effect of pushing the economy into recession.
www.foxnews.com /story/0,2933,166024,00.html   (752 words)

  
 James D. Hamilton Home Page
This paper argues that a change in the fed funds target begins to affect the economy as soon as it becomes anticipated by markets, with innovations in mortgage rates driven in part by innovations in the level and slope of the term structure of expected near-horizon fed funds rates.
For a slightly more technical answer to the general question of what my research implies about the fraction of typical U.S. postwar recessions could be attributed to the oil shocks themselves, see Historical Effects of Oil Shocks.
A case study is also available as a teaching aid to lead students in investigating the effects of and policy responses to oil shocks.
econ.ucsd.edu /~jhamilto   (1571 words)

  
 Balance Menu
Oil Changes; Shocks and Struts; Tire Rotation; Transmission Maintenance; 16 cadillac catera factory chrome wheel rim cap Wheel Balance indicates a rear tire out of balance.
Oil Changes; Shocks and Struts; Tire Rotation; Transmission Maintenance; Wheel Balance Centramatic automatic mounted OnBoard Truck Tire balancers wheel balancer 96 altima alloy wheels tire balancer who just gave up trying to keep the trailer tires balanced.
Oil Changes; Shocks and Struts; Tire Rotation; overseas truck tires Transmission Maintenance; Wheel Balance M and M Tire Company in Greenwood SC sells passenger performance truck SUV farm and OTR tires.
www.faopmaustralia.org /menu/balance.htm   (1167 words)

  
 KYB Gas Shocks
KYB gas shocks and struts feature auto-adapt valving for a smooth, controlled ride, seamless cylinders and eye rings for durability, and multi-lip seals for long life reliability.
KYB GR-2 shocks and struts use a triple-lip oil seal and KYB Gas-a-Just shocks and struts uses a self-sealing packing to ensure proper performance.
KYB GR-2 shocks and struts use a special check valve to minimize foaming for reliable performance, even under tough conditions.
www.import-racer.com /kyb   (534 words)

  
 Energy Security, Oil Shocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)   (Site not responding. Last check: )
Oil Imports: An Assessment of Benefits and Costs, Paul Leiby, Donald W. Jones, T. Randall Curlee and Russell Lee, ORNL-6851, November 1, 1997.
Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What has Been Learned Since 1996, Donald W. Jones and Paul N. Leiby and Inja Paik, Forthcoming, The Energy Journal, January 5, 1996, Revised Draft, June 25 2003.
Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned since 1996," Proceedings of the 25th Annual IAEE International Conference, June 26-29, Aberdeen, Scotland.
pzl1.ed.ornl.gov /energysecurity.html   (516 words)

  
 Tokico Shocks, Springs and Suspension Kits
TOKICO Premium Performance shock absorbers (aka "Tokico Blues") have a number of features not found in other shock absorbers.
--Tokico shock oil is specially compounded for resistance to breakdown and minimal viscosity change regardless of temperature.
TOKICO Illumina adjustable series offers some of the highest shock absorber technology currently available in the aftermarket.Tokico Illumina gas shock's ease of adjustment and change in vehicle response is second to none.
www.import-racer.com /tokico   (465 words)

  
 R/C Tech Forums - oil shocks!!!
I recently got oil shocks and some of the oil slipped out while i was looking at them more closely...
Those shocks use a bladdered cap design with a lower seal system that's housed inside the main body of the shock, not in a lower cartridge like Losi, Associated, and Traxxas (Aluminum only) shocks.
If your shocks were brand new it's possible that you forgot a spacer in between the dual lower O-Rings when you assembled them, or that There is a nice big divot in the upper portion of the shock shaft from a pair of misplaced pliers.
www.rctech.net /forum/showthread.php?p=2805993   (708 words)

  
 WTRG Economics -OPEC, crude oil, natural gas, analysis, forecasts and data
In addition to OPEC and crude oil prices, gasoline and natural gas prices, topics include regional, national and international exploration, production and consumption.
Oil Price History and Analysis - 100+ years of oil prices and the economic and political events that shaped the price: wars, domestic policy, embargoes and price control.
Deora rules out oil price hike - Part of the reason for the rapid growth in Asian demand is price control on petroleum products in India and China.
www.wtrg.com   (536 words)

  
 The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries
We extend these models to verify if the inclusion of asymmetric oil shocks as an exogenous variable improves the ability of each specification to identify the different phases of the business cycle for each country under scrutiny.
Third, the introduction of different oil shock specifications is never rejected.
Fourth, positive oil price changes, net oil price increases and oil price volatility are the oil shock definitions which contribute to a better description of the impact of oil on output growth.
ideas.repec.org /p/fem/femwpa/2006.29.html   (1081 words)

  
 Cities Vulnerable To Oil Shocks | Planetizen
What if crude oil costs, now hovering around $67 a barrel, skyrocketed to $100 and above per barrel — creating gasoline shortages and sending prices so high that many Americans could not get the fuel or afford it?
Colorado Springs would not do as well as half of the largest 50 U.S. cities in maintaining economic strength and quality of life —but not as badly as the other half.
SustainLane's recently released rankings of the largest 50 U.S. cities by preparedness for rises in oil prices leaves some cities, from Colorado Springs to Kansas City, room for improvement.
www.planetizen.com /node/19314   (330 words)

  
 Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy.(Reply): An article from: Journal of ...
Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy.(Reply): An article from: Journal of Money, Credit & Banking
You can view it with any web browser.
Title: Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy.(Reply)
www.usingenglish.com /amazon/us/B00082LKZE.html   (128 words)

  
 How Oil Shocks Affect Markets - Council on Foreign Relations
How Oil Shocks Affect Markets - Council on Foreign Relations
It appears that you are using either an older, classic Web browser or a hand-held device that allows you to view our content but may not work with every feature of our site.
If you are using an older browser, please upgrade for the best experience.
www.cfr.org /publication/8906/how_oil_shocks_affect_markets.html?breadcrumb=default   (207 words)

  
 Black Gold: The End of Bretton Woods and the Oil-Price Shocks of the 1970s: The Independent Review: The Independent ...
Black Gold: The End of Bretton Woods and the Oil-Price Shocks of the 1970s: The Independent Review: The Independent Institute
Economists have debated the causal mechanism by which OPEC policies of the 1970s contributed to the decade’s rise in prices overall, but all sides have assumed that U.S. prices indices are appropriate for computing the real price of oil.
This assumption is mistaken and has led economists to overestimate the benefit that the policies brought to OPEC countries and to ignore the effects that ending the Bretton Woods Agreement had on OPEC policies.
www.independent.org /publications/tir/article.asp?issueID=41&articleID=518   (107 words)

  
 Comments on: Report Highlights U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Shocks
Comments on: Report Highlights U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Shocks
Bush is an angry chimp fighting for oil.
Hi, I found your site googling "usability" and "blog" and I like what I see, but, who are you?
www.webword.com /2005/09/20/report-highlights-us-vulnerability-to-oil-shocks/feed   (109 words)

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