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	Olduvai Theory Update « The Moral Equivalent of War
		Regardless of whether you agree with his findings or not, he lays out a detailed argument for why he feels we are close to the brink of collapse, and he brings up the one subject that is often avoided: overpopulation.
		Duncan is stating that he expects to see brownouts and flouts affecting the power grid (in the industrial world, I’m assuming, since flouts are common in some parts of the world today) staring sometime in the next four years.
		One of the main points of the Olduvai Theory is that when the electrical grid goes down for good, industrial society cannot survive.
	moralequivalentofwar.wordpress.com /2007/02/10/olduvai-theory-update (700 words)

	Olduvai theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989.
		A paper "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization" is published in The Social Contract, Vol.
		The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Olduvai_theory (521 words)

	Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Supporters of peak theory suggest Hubbert's model did not account for the 1973 and 1979 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil shocks, which effectively reduced global demand for oil, thus delaying the peak.
		Hubbert's theory is based on the fact that petroleum is a non-renewable resource, and on observations of the peak in production at many individual oil fields.
		Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Peak_oil (4319 words)

	Peak Oil - dKosopedia
		The theory was created as a mathematical model for use in predicting the rate of future oil production and subsequent depletion for an oilfield, as well as the combined production of multiple oil fields of entire regions or nations.
		As would be expected by any theory that predicts future fuel shortages, the Hubbert model has significant political and economic foreign policy ramifications.
		The Hubbert peak theory is most often applied to oil but is applicable to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil.
	www.dkosopedia.com /index.php/Peak_Oil (3249 words)

	The end of cheap oil will mean human extinction. (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		The Olduvai theory* was first introduced in a scientific paper by petroleum geologist/engineer/anthropologist Richard C Duncan titled The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge.
		The Olduvai theory uses only a single metric, as defined by White's Law, and deals with electricity as the most vital expression of other forms of energy such as crude oil or coal.
		The theory is an inductive one based on world energy and population data, so elegantly simple that any 12th grader can do it, assuming he or she can do multiplication (a risky assumption now that no child has been left behind by our great ownership society).
	www.politicsandcurrentaffairs.com /Forum/viewtopic.php?t=8183 (6313 words)

	CommUnity of Minds : Working Together (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		I chose the name "Olduvai" because (1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.
		The Olduvai theory, to review, states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to one hundred years, as measured by the world average energy production person per year: ê = E/(Pop).
		The theory of civilization is traced from Greek philosophy in about 500 BCE to a host of respected scientists in the 20th century.
	solutions.synearth.net /2004/11/24 (5118 words)

	Peak Oil Debunked: 31. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO RICHARD "OLDUVAI" DUNCAN?
		For the benefit of peak oil newbies: Richard "Olduvai" Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil.
		Duncan's grandiosely -named "Olduvai Theory" is a variant of die-off theory, and a perennial favorite amongst the dead-enders.
		Olduvai, you have joined the proud and ancient lineage of failed doom predictions.
	peakoildebunked.blogspot.com /2005/08/31-whatever-happened-to-richard.html (1037 words)

	The Oil Drum \| Revisiting the Olduvai Theory (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		The Olduvai Theory assumes that after peaking, WEPC will decline at a rate that mirrors its growth.
		The Olduvai Theory sets the Electrical Civilization to the time frame where Energy per Capita is above 30% of its all time peak.
		From the Olduvai Theory we learned that modeling resource depletion is also modeling population, and that there is a strong link between the two.
	www.theoildrum.com /story/2006/3/6/135437/7111 (8970 words)

	Olduvai Theory and the raping of natural resources. - Vegan Represent
		Olduvai Theory and the raping of natural resources.
		The theory itself claims 2025 is the estimated time when natural resources will begin to become scarce, reminding me of another theory in which the end result is a world war fought over natural resources.
		I think that 2025 is a bit soon, but hey, maybe the ice caps will melt and we'll be in an ice age by then so we won't have to worry about it.
	www.veganrepresent.com /forums/showthread.php?t=3669 (457 words)

	Olduvai Theory
		The Olduvai Gorge is a gentle picturesque valley that extends east to west within the Serengeti National Park in northern Tanzania.
		The Olduvai theory, to review, states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to one hundred years, as measured by the world average energy production (use) per person: ê = E/(Pop).
		The main goals for this section are threefold: (1) to discuss the Olduvai theory from 1930 to 2030, (2) to identify the important energy events during this time, and (3) to stress that Industrial Civilization = Electrical Civilization = the "modern way of life." Figure 4 depicts the Olduvai theory.
	www.mnforsustain.org /oil_duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm (5956 words)

	Olduvai Theory,petroleum energyand mineral depletion stone age \| MetaFilter (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		December 22, 2002 2:13 AM The life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is horridly short according to Richard C. Duncan and his Olduvai theory.
		Like all of these weird theories it can be found on the outer fringes of the Internet.
		I take "Olduvai Theory" to mean that this guy is in the stone age in his attitude to scientific rigor.
	www.metafilter.com /mefi/22479 (1958 words)

	Magellan's Log: The New Olduvai Theory
		to the Olduvai Gorge," by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. The New Olduvai Theory
		Under the non-catchy title, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge," the estimable Dr. Duncan laid out a doom-and-gloom time-line that was after old Cassandra's heart.
		His argument, which is quite simple really, is that because of energy issues over which at this point we have little control, it's all over for us except the shouting, civilization-wise.
	www.texaschapbookpress.com /magellanslog67/olduvai.htm (351 words)

	Reference.com/Encyclopedia/Olduvai theory
		The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1 in 1989.
		This decline is predicted to occur in three stages:
		The paper contains a quote that Sir Fred Hoyle made in 1964, stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the fossil fuels and "high-grade" metallic ores gone, no species will ever reach the same level of technology as we now enjoy.
	www.reference.com /browse/wiki/Olduvai_theory (358 words)

	Olduvai update \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
		His Olduvai theory states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030, based on his projections for the ratio of world energy production and population.
		The Olduvai 'cliff' event has been moved closer to the present by four years: namely from 2012 previously to 2008 in the update.
		The latter interval comprises the historic 'Olduvai plateau'.
	www.energybulletin.net /3294.html (389 words)

	Olduvai - the theory behind the threat
		The Olduvai Theory is an hypothesis put forward by Richard Duncan and revolves around the importance of electricity to civilisation.
		The theory is a proposed way of measuring industrial civilisation by a single ratio - world annual energy use to population.
		The important idea is that, unlike previous civilisations which have risen and fallen to be replaced by others, industrial civilisation would be the last because we would have used up all the easily obtainable resources (oil, coal, minerals) which are necessary for a civilisation to form.
	wolf.readinglitho.co.uk /mainpages/olduvai.html (412 words)

	The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge
		The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating.
		The Olduvai theory is a data-based schema that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years.
		In fact, the Olduvai way of life was (and still is) a sustainable way of life - local, tribal, and solar - and, for better or worse, our ancestors practiced it for millions of years.
	www.hubbertpeak.com /duncan/olduvai2000.htm (5384 words)

	[No title]
		I offer it, however, as an inductive theory based on world energy and population data and on what I’ve seen during the past 30 years in some 50 nations on all continents except Antarctica.
		The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population.
		The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline.
	www.geocities.com /theories420/index.html (746 words)

	Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age, by Richard Duncan
		But the Olduvai theory is different because, willy-nilly, it will adversely impact the lives of almost everybody.
		The Olduvai theory explains the Figure 2 data, but the exponential-growth theory (of mainstream economics) and the steady-state theory both fail.
		The Olduvai theory cannot be overthrown (i.e., scientifically rejected) by outrage or indignation.
	dieoff.org /page125.htm (3053 words)

	lead_tag: Olduvai Theory
		The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989.
		The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Africa.
		At the time of Duncan's paper, the peak was 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979; however, since then energy use per capita has increased beyond that level, with the most recent year providing the current peak value of 12.12 boe/c/yr.
	lead-tag.livejournal.com /3094.html (596 words)

	2012 - The Red Pill
		The Olduvai cliff will begin and permanent flouts will occur worldwide, according to "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan.
		Terence McKenna's Novelty Theory claims that time is a fractal wave of increasing novelty that ends abruptly in 2012.
		Tibetan Monks specialising in remote viewing predict that divine extra-terrestrials will intervene at a point where the world's governments are about to deploy weapons of mass destruction.
	redpill.dailygrail.com /wiki/2012 (307 words)

	Peak Oil News and Message Boards Forums >> Post 35828 >> That's very nice, but
		Duncan writes, 'The Olduvai 'slide' from 2001 to 2011 (Figure 4) may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness.' I don't think we're quite there yet.
		Duncan's theory basically tells that by that year there would be nobody who would be willing or able to sell energy in a significant quantity to prevent a general debacle.
		In Olduvai theory, only energy consumption (availibility of energy) per capita is important.
	www.peakoil.com /post35828.html (2091 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		He named it after the famous Olduvai Gorge, because it symbolically represents the human species becoming metaphoric lemmings as we run head-first off the cliff into oblivion, thanks to global energy shortages that have already begun.
		It’s scary to contemplate, but the theory is well grounded in historical data.
		The Olduvai Theory states that industrial civilization will last no longer than 100 years, beginning in 1930 and continuing, perhaps, until 2030.
	wilstar.com /OverCoffee/2003/olduvai.txt (693 words)

	[No title]
		Campbell, is the leading advocate of the peak-oil catastrophe theory, and one of the few to recognize its most startling prediction.
		If the theory (actually more of a hunch) is correct, oil production will peak quite soon, or possibly on November 24, 2005 according to Deffeyes, the smartest of the bunch and a Princeton geologist.
		According to the theory, “world population peaks at 6.9 billion circa 2015, and thereafter declines to 2.0 billion in 2050.” In the process 4.9 billion die for lack of oil.
	zfacts.com /p/62.html (1156 words)

	Olduvai Theory
		The Olduvai Theory of Civilization was presented by Duncan (2000) in a keynote presentation to the Geological Survey in Reno, NV.
		According to Duncan (2000), the Olduvai theory states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to one hundred years, as measured by the world average energy production person per year as shown above.
		According to this theory, civilization will end when we return to that same level of energy output in 2030.
	www.umaine.edu /sustainability/Program_Content/olduvai_theory.htm (489 words)

	Peak Oil Debunked: 255. "OLDUVAI" DUNCAN RESURFACES IN RACIST PUBLICATION
		I've previously commented on the "Olduvai Theory" of Richard Duncan Ph.D., one of the fringe pseudo-scientists who has attached himself to peak oil.
		Duncan is a quack posing as a scientist, and that's why he published his theory in a KKK anti-immigration magazine instead of in a scientific journal.
		Duncan's theory is invalid because it fails to fulfil the methodology necessary to validate it.
	peakoildebunked.blogspot.com /2006/03/255-olduvai-duncan-resurfaces-in.html (2253 words)

	Hard, Hard Questions
		Richard Duncan PhD, of the Institute on Energy and Man, has postulated what he calls the “Olduvai Theory” after Olduvai Gorge, where the remains of the first humans were found.
		This hypothesis was defined in terms of a measurable index, world energy-use per person, and named the ‘transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization.’ I sketched its maximum point at 1990, followed by a persistent decline.
		The Olduvai 'slide' from 2001 to 2011 may resemble the ‘Great Depression’ of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness.
	www.strike-the-root.com /3/russell/russell3.html (1241 words)

	[CrashList] Addin' fuel to the fire (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		-Karl Davies [1] The Olduvai theory states that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization, defined in terms of world energy use per capita (e), is less than or equal to 100 years.
		The notion that there could be such a thing as an Olduvai Cliff [23], or even an Olduvai Valley, is heresy to trade representatives, and must be uprooted and expunged from the public mind by any means possible.
		And Quesnay's political theory -- both analytically and normatively -- turned upon a monarchical absolutism in an uncritical and unhistoric manner that, as we have seen, was also quite foreign to the scholastics.
	lists.econ.utah.edu /pipermail/a-list/2001-March/016229.html (7091 words)

	Hubbert peak theory - TvWiki, the free encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-06)
		The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil", concerns the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion.
		Hubbert's theory is that the same calculations that successfully predicted the peak in oil production in the USA would apply to other circumstances, such as the peak in worldwide oil production.
		Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy.
	www.tvwiki.tv /wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory (3995 words)

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