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Topic: Personal probability

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	Probability axioms - Wikipédia
		Probabiliti P tina sababaraha kajadian E (dilambangkeun ku P(E)) is defined with respect to a "universe" or sample space Ω of all possible elementary events in such a way that P must satisfy the Kolmogorov axioms.
		Alternatively, a probability can be interpreted as a measure on a σ-algebra of subsets of the sample space, those subsets being the events, such that the measure of the whole set equals 1.
		If the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B, then B and A are said to be independent.
	su.wikipedia.org /wiki/Probability_axioms (449 words)

	Bayesian probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Bayesianism is the philosophical tenet that the mathematical theory of probability applies to the degree of plausibility of a statement.
		The Bayesian approach is in contrast to the concept of frequency probability where probability is held to be derived from observed or imagined frequency distributions or proportions of populations.
		According to the frequency probability definition, however, the laws of probability are not applicable to this problem.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bayesian_probability (1652 words)

	Bayesian probability : Personal probability (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Bayesianism is the philosophical tenet that the mathematical theory of probability applies to the degree of plausibility of statements, or to the degree of belief of rational agents in the truth of statements.
		The Bayesian approach is in contrast to frequency probability where probability is held to be derived from observed or imagined frequency distributions or proportions of populations.
		According to the frequency probability definition, however, we are not permitted to use probability theory to tackle this problem.
	www.city-search.org /pe/personal-probability.html (746 words)

	Exercises: Chapter 15
		The probability that a child is living with one parent is the probability that a child is living with just his or her mother or just his or her father.
		This probability could have been most easily determined by physical knowledge of the situation, assuming all possible poker hands are equally likely, and determining the proportion of them that result in four of a kind.
		Whatever the birth month of the first person, the probability that the second person was born in that same month is 1/12.
	www.zanesville.ohiou.edu /psych/stat120/ch15-ex.htm (1890 words)

	Guessing, gambling, measurement error and realism of self-assessment. (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		It is based upon personal probabilities of the correct response, that are conditional on the self-assessed knowledge and mental capabilities of a person in relation to the topic tested.
		Probability theory is one of them and can be nicely applied to scrutinise the underlying paradigm of mental testing where these personal probabilities are at the core of the subjects responses.
		This confidence is equal to p(HcD) as this is the maximum personal probability and thus c is choosen and p(HcD) is the personal probability that this choosen option is the correct one.
	www.xs4all.nl /~aried/PSYME97.htm (4041 words)

	Probabilitas Bayes - Wikipédia
		Bayesianism ngarupakeun philosophical tenet that the mathematical theory of probability applies to the degree of plausibility of statements, or to the degree of belief of rational agents in the truth of statements; when used with Bayes theorem, it then becomes Bayesian inference.
		Whereas a frequentist and a Bayesian might both assign probability 1/2 to the event of getting a head when a coin is tossed, only a Bayesian might assign probability 1/1000 to personal belief in the proposition that there was life on Mars a billion years ago, without intending to assert anything about any relative frequency.
		The general outlook of Bayesian probability, promoted by Laplace and several later authors, has been that the laws of probability apply equally to propositions of all kinds.
	su.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bayesian_probability (964 words)

	Houston Teacher Institute (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Although the use of probability or statistic tools are useful as transfer skills such as in history or science, aside from a traditional math class, rarely does one find a statistics or probability lessons explored at the middle school level.
		Personal probabilities, remember are values assigned by individuals based on how likely they think events are to occur.
		Probability predictions on whether you would obtain a more symmetrically shaded, asymmetrical or inconstant color-fill combination by predicting and charting would give the students another way to test their logic and prediction skills.
	www.uh.edu /hti/cu/2001/v01/06.htm (6239 words)

	Probability Sampling
		Probability theory as a branch of mathematics arose in the seventeenth century when French gamblers asked Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, both well known pioneers in mathematics, for help in their gambling.
		Probability is defined as the branch of mathematics that describes the pattern of chance outcomes.
		Your personal probability may be different from mine.
	www.angelfire.com /empire/richardt (1427 words)

	Acquiring Statistics \| Jimmie Savage (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Personal contact with so many competent and active statisticians in connection with issues that still seem liable to emotional misinterpretation when merely written is very auspicious.
		Personal probability was not only useful and interesting to study; it became for him the only sensible approach to probability and statistics.
		We may fittingly end with these personal tributes to the pre-eminent personalist of the century, and with the thought that in the end, the real game is in the game, and not in the game theory.
	www.umass.edu /wsp/statistics/tales/savage.html (1755 words)

	Ethics of Chance, E. C. Wit (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Probability came to be applied in a growing number of areas: it assisted gamblers, it modeled uncertain evidence in a courtroom and it described the life-time of people, which enabled insurance companies to be more competitive.
		the probability that a sun-rise is alternated with a non-sun-rise and vice versa.
		The fact that probability is the infrequent appearance of a certain characteristic among an otherwise homogeneous group of individuals impinges the domain of deliberative rationality, where the infrequent is subject of consideration.
	www.stats.gla.ac.uk /~ernst/ethics_of_chance.htm (17076 words)

	Testing With Personal Probabilities; Eleven Year Olds Can Correctly Estimate Their Personal Probabilities. (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Dirkzwager (1975, 1993) derived such a scoring rule as a linear function of the logarithm of the probability assigned to the correct alternative, with constants chosen such that the maximum score per item is 100 points and such that the score is zero if all alternatives are assigned equal probabilities.
		This score becomes negative for lower probabilities: in those cases the subject is not only just “uninformed” but even misinformed and in fact he or she may be even holding a serious fallacy.
		The raw data consisted of their (55x2x25x5=13,750) personal estimates of the probability or likelyhood that an option were the right one, for each of the five options on all items.
	www.xs4all.nl /~aried/CALSART.htm (2005 words)

	11. PLANNING AND MANAGING FARM SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		These personal degrees of belief for Y values when N = 50 are expressed as subjective probabilities in the bottom half of Figure 11.1 - (a) in continuous form on the left and (b) in discrete form (for yield intervals of 0.5t) on the right.
		Personal judgement is then exercised by the farmer to choose that alternative which, for him or her, has the most preferred/attractive probability distribution of outcomes.
		The probabilities used should be those of the decision maker, i.e., his or her personal or subjective probabilities based on experience, intuition and/or any other available information.
	www.fao.org /docrep/w7365e/w7365e0e.htm (7774 words)

	[No title]
		It should be observed that the very notion of "personal probabilities" carries a significant normative dimension, since there are no laws of nature, genetic or cultural, that require persons distribute their "degrees of belief" in accordance with the axioms of probability.
		Clearly, one person at two times and two persons at one time can accept an antecedent hypothetically--for the sake of argument-- without agreeing on the probability of the consequent, especially in light of access to new data, information, or evidence, when its truth or falsity (or presence or absence) makes a difference to those probabilities.
		The differences in value between logical probabilities that ought to be assigned and personal or subjective probabilities that actually are assigned to various outcomes by specific persons zi at times tj thus constitute measures of the extent to which zi at tj manifests irrationality of belief.
	www.humanities.mcmaster.ca /~ailact/fetzer.htm (7875 words)

	Fides Quaerens Intellectum: Five Interpretations of "Probability" (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Personal probability gives an interpretation of the notion of probability as the degree of confidence that an individual has for a belief.
		Personal probability interprets (P) by claiming that a person who has studied the fair coin is equally confident that the coin will land on heads as she is that it will land on tails.
		On this interpretation, no single interpretation of "probability" applies across the board to all uses of the word "probability" in applications of "probability." While this sounds like the way to go, I think it is kind of weasler as far as a theory of probability goes.
	blog.johndepoe.com /2005/09/five-interpretations-of-probability.html (883 words)

	Lec5
		Probabilities are a critical component of decision analysis
		Once subjective probabilities are quantified they can be conveniently related with “hard” data or even combined using Bayes theorem.
		Assign a probability of 0.63 to the median and 0.185 to each fractile.
	www.duke.edu /~meb6/env385/Lec5.htm (399 words)

	DH Kaye: weight-BULR-86
		Previously, he insisted that such probabilities were wholly inadmissible, since they presupposed a hypothetical lottery or wagering procedure that was meaningless inasmuch as the bets could not be settled and the personal probabilities elicited in this fashion would be affected by the stakes of the bets.
		In this regard, whether eliciting personal probabilities with the aid of a hypothetical wagering scenario is a plausible description of a juror's 'own state of mind' or of 'imaginable introspections of jurors and advocates' [FN27] is beside the point.
		It expresses this probability as a conditional probability--one determined in light of the entirety of the evidence E and its context--but it says nothing about how this conditional probability should be formed.
	homepages.law.asu.edu /~kayed/pubs/evid/86-BULR-weight.htm (7046 words)

	Science / Math / Probability - My Personal HOME PAGE
		The Applied Probability Trust is a non-profit foundation for study and research in the mathematical sciences.
		An in-depth but easily readable guide on probability theory, covering various aspects of theory with a bias to gambling games.
		Probability activities and simulations in the form of applets and spreadsheets.
	mypersonalhomepage.net /index.php?c=Science/Math/Probability (544 words)

	[No title]
		Probabilities must be between 0 and 1, inclusive.
		For two disjoint events A and B, the probability that one or the other occurs is the sum of the probabilities of the two events.
		A probability of 1 indicates certainty.¡:ÂTuÿfþBTó ¨Personal Probability In everyday speech, when we express a degree of uncertainty without basing it on long-run relative frequencies, we are stating subjective or personal probabilities. Personal probabilities don t display the kind of consistency that we will need probabilities to have, so we ll stick with formally defined probabilities.¡L?
	media.pearsoncmg.com /aw/aw_deveaux_introstats_1/castle/ppt/dv01_14.ppt (905 words)

	Amazon.com: Books: An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science.
		The best thing about this book is that it teachs basic probability theory while keeping the reader constantly aware of the on-going debate regarding what it means to talk in terms of probabilities, and of how that debate has shaped the development of probability theory.
		If you are a student taking a course in probability and statistics who would like to genuinely understand the conceptual basis of all those formulas they are teaching you, I suggest you read this book.
	www.amazon.com /exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0521775019?v=glance (1487 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Assuming that the lemons are produced randomly, what is the probability that the next car manufactured is a lemon?¡ÈÈªÅó'ó(¨Law of large numbers¨ºNote that the relative frequencies are not probabilities but approximate probabilities.
		However, if the experiment is repeated again and again, this approximate probability of an outcome from the relative frequency will approach the actual probability of that outcome.
		However, if the experiment is repeated ýÿÿÿ þÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿagain and again, this approximate probability of an outcome from the relative frequency will approach the actual probability of that outcome.
	www.mathcs.emory.edu /~rudolf/math107/lect7.ppt (879 words)

	Glenn Shafer - c.v.
		Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation (with Prakash Shenoy).
		A new understanding of subjective probability and its generalization to lower and upper prevision (with Peter R. Gillett and Richard Scherl).
		Kolmogorov's contributions to the foundations of probability, by Vladimir Vovk and Glenn Shafer.
	www.glennshafer.com /cv.html (3644 words)

	[Jdm-society] DECISION AIDING TERMS
		My personal probability- > weighted fatalities from a nuclear bomb on New York might be one, > but I don’t now expect one nuclear death.
		I expect there to be > either millions of deaths (with tiny probability) or no deaths at all.
		Both terms are > currently in play, and “subjective” can qualify “personal”; as in: > “My personal probability of life on Mars is highly subjective, > whereas my personal probability of heads on a coin toss is not”.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2003-November/001715.html (536 words)

	Probability Concepts (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Personal probability is based on an individual's belief about the likelihood of an event.
		Probability based on the judgment of an expert is considered personal probability.
		It is estimated that over 3500 fatalities were prevented by automobile airbags in the first 5 years after they were introduced.
	www.metamath.com /webstat/uses3.html (160 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Exercises: 2, 13, 20, 26, 27, 28, 30, 32 Chapter 17 Terms: probability.
		That is, what is the idea behind probability?
		Exercises: 6, 7, 9, 11, 22 Chapter 18 Terms: probability model, event, sampling distribution 1.
	www.paideiaschool.org /TeacherPages/Jen_Leong/FS/Quiz4Study_Ch14_Ch18.doc (183 words)

	BBC- One Life - Personal - Confidence - Probability Of Success
		Eg: Someone wants to be an actor - he is extremely shy, has a very quiet voice and little interest in the theatre.
		His score is 17 out of 40 (a very low probability of success).
		Someone else wants to be an actor - she has been in school plays, loves going to the theatre, belongs to a drama group and received rave reviews for her last part.
	www.bbc.co.uk /radio1/onelife/personal/confidence/probable.shtml (207 words)

	IMS OptiMax (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		It applies a true personal probability model to enable full analysis and investigation of the respondent level person-by-person continuous panel data.
		Currently OptiMax uses Nielsen Media Research (NMR) Person by Person data, both NMR and BBM Canadian weekly data, and integrated databases such as the Nielsen/MARS Fusion.
		Reliable reach and frequency calculated with true personal probability method retains all information with data, thereby preserving sensitivity to "pockets of opportunity."
	www.imsms.com /products/usa/US_optimax.htm (536 words)

	dopayit.com -- - Science - Math - Probability - Mathematicians - Personal Pages
		Probabilistic models of mathematical physics; stochastic partial differential equations; limit theorems of probability theory.
		Research interests: Probability theory, including cellular automata, percolation, matching, coupling.
		Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Random Processes, Stochastic Analysis, Optimization, Mathematical Economics and Finance.
	www.dopayit.com /directory/Science/Math/Probability/Mathematicians/Personal_Pages (300 words)

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