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Topic: Planning fallacy

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Pathetic fallacy

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	Encyclopedia :: encyclopedia : Regional planning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		Regional planning is a branch of planning that deals with the design and efficient placement of activities and infrastructure across a significantly large area of land.
		The related field of urban planning deals with the specific issues of city planning, which is a subset of regional planning.
		Regional planning is the science of efficient placement of infrastructure and zoning for the sustainable growth of a region.
	www.hallencyclopedia.com /Regional_planning (497 words)

	List of cognitive biases - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Outcome Bias - the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
		Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.
		Gambler's fallacy - the tendency to assume that individual random events are influenced by previous random events— "the coin has a memory"
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases (1491 words)

	Planning fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.
		Some have attempted to explain the planning fallacy in terms of impression management theory.
		People formulating the plan may eliminate factors they perceive to lie outside the specifics of the project.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Planning_fallacy (255 words)

	Planning and Markets: E.R. Alexander: Printer Friendly Version
		Planning, therefore, is part of the response to high market transaction costs, and is a property of nonmarket forms of organization.
		Defining planning is really quite complex: the term can be understood in its broadest sense to range from evolutionary biological adaptation through individual to social activities (Alexander, 1992.a: 69-74), and has social and practical connotations (e.g who are recognized as professional or expert planners) that vary across cultures (Alexander, 2000).
		Indeed, in one view the firm exists to plan: the critical incentive for the evolution of firms is the need to respond efficiently to the market's signals, requiring "decision making (that is) coordinated ex-ante in firms" (Hermalin, 1999: 104); ex-ante coordination, of course, is planning (March and Simon, 1958: 158-169).
	www-pam.usc.edu /volume4/v4i1a2print.html (8094 words)

	California: Shaping New Directions, Part III to end
		Regional planning in this context recognizes the need for an intermediate approach between the extremes of regional government organization at the local level and a State assumption of a broader exercise of authority than is provided by existing statutes.
		The plan, however, was far-sighted in recommending policies in areas such as energy use, marine and coastal protection, resource management, and for emphasizing the need for explicit State land use and population policy.
		The State Office of Planning was abolished and a new Office of Planning and Research (OPR) was established in the Office of the Governor.
	mnforsustain.org /caps_california_pop_planning_study_partIII_to_end.htm (4189 words)

	California: Shaping New Directions, Parts I & II
		that the State planning process, particularly with regard to the preparation of statewide goals and policies, should incorporate the recommendations and views of an advisory council that is responsive to, and of some assistance to, the planning concerns that occur on a local and regional basis.
		In the face of controversy over plans for the construction of new water storage facilities since completion of major reservoir and aqueduct facilities in the 1960’s and 1970’s, the State and its water customers have concentrated on a variety of approaches to water conservation to expand the beneficial use of existing water supplies.
		While Caltrans’ attention to long-range planning has deteriorated badly, it must also be said that even in its heyday of highway planning and construction, as in the case of its water program, the State has failed to use transportation policy as a means to influence population growth and distribution.
	mnforsustain.org /caps_california_pop_planning_study_partsI_and_II.htm (7267 words)

	Intro to Fallacies
		And what must be avoided in one setting may be required in another, so that what is a fallacy in Planning Commission meetings may be perfectly appropriate when one is addressing the issue of whether a witness is credible in court.
		The form of Fallacious Appeal to Authority is the same as any appeal to authority, whether sound or fallacious: "My position is the right position on this issue because So-and-so says it is." As soon as you can boil down an argument to this form, you should checkfor Fallacious Appeal to Authority.
		It is the fallacy of taking an otherwise unqualified group as an authority on the basis that we are members of that group.
	www.humboldt.edu /~jwp2/fallbas.htm (2054 words)

	Top 10 Estate Planning Mistakes \| Personal Finance > Personal Finance Basics
		While it is not a pleasant task, estate planning is necessary to effectively and efficiently transfer your assets to your heirs.
		Proper planning can help those to whom you are leaving assets avoid paying high federal income taxes and estate taxes.
		Estate planning is important for everyone who is concerned about where their assets will end up upon their demise.
	www.allbusiness.com /business_advice/articles/4005.html (307 words)

	Centre for Decision Research
		There has been considerable research supporting the cognitive decision making phenomenon known as the planning fallacy, which is the tendency to underestimate task duration.
		Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) theory of the planning fallacy states that people image how an upcoming task will be completed without impediments, whilst ignoring pertinent information such as personal performance on previous similar tasks.
		Contrary to Kahneman and Tversky’s theory of the planning fallacy, this research indicates that personal performance on previous tasks is considered when judging task duration, and that using such distributional information does not necessarily reduce prediction bias.
	www.leeds.ac.uk /decision-research/events/abstracts/kt_28-04-04.htm (159 words)

	The Future Value Fallacy in Estate Tax Planning
		One popular option that software publishers have included in their software is to state a rate of growth for the estate (or individual assets in the estate) and calculate death taxes based on the future values of those assets.
		The advantage of a qualified retirement plan or individual retirement is even greater because the income earned during the tax deferral is also tax deferred, so the effective annual growth rate is higher.
		The "estate equalization" approach to estate planning is therefore usually reserved for surviving spouses who are very elderly, very ill, or already dead when the estate tax return is filed.
	evans-legal.com /dan/futureval.html (2444 words)

	In Pursuit of Sustainable Development: Political Planning versus the Free Market
		In working out this extended agenda, in establishing a permanent Commission on Sustainable Development, and in calling upon the wealthier nations of the world to fund these projects, the UN’s presumption is that without this coordinated and financed joint effort, the planet and a large proportion of its population are threatened with destruction and misery.
		The fact is, the world would now be far better off, in terms of standards of living and environmental quality, if it had not been burdened with socialist and interventionist experiments throughout the 20th century.
		That knowledge is rapidly incorporated into the plans and actions of multitudes of millions of people in their production and consumption decisions around the world.
	www.fff.org /freedom/fd0301b.asp (2309 words)

	Planning and Markets: E.R. Alexander: Section I
		"(P)lanned interventions versus market approaches" (1) implies that planning and markets are separate, opposed, and mutually exclusive.
		But (except in extreme cases (2)) "planning" and "markets" are not analytically or empirically distinguishable.
		A narrower definition of planning in its collective sense is more useful for us here, viewing planning as the deliberate social or organizational activity of developing and deciding upon strategies for future action (4).
	www-pam.usc.edu /volume4/v4i1a2s1.html (690 words)

	internet culture
		Call this the Frame Fallacy, after the mistake of inferring from the fact that a movie is made up of discrete frames, to the conclusion that the experience of watching a movie is the experience of a series of discrete frames.
		Another example of the Frame Fallacy occurs when Heim argues, as noted in the introductory section, that the ``Boolean logic'' of the computer, which makes hyperlinks possible and facilitates searches on the Internet with engines like Google, transfers to the experience of using the computer, blocking the linear, contemplative path of traditional reading, for instance.
		That this is a fallacy is evident from the fact that the computer does not force the user to jump around in the manner that it enables.
	www.brandeis.edu /pubs/jove/HTML/V6/iculture.html (8643 words)

	Gambling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Situations where the possibility of winning additional money or material goods is a secondary or incidental reason for the wager/purchase (e.g., buying a raffle ticket to support a worthy cause)
		Prediction markets or knowledge exchanges where the outcome is to encourage the development of market-based mechanisms for resolving questions of science, technology, management, strategy, planning, policy, etc.
		There are three variables common to all forms of gambling:
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Gambling (3147 words)

	[Jdm-society] Planning fallacy of Sydney Opera House
		Second, the relevant planning and decision processes urgently need to become better organized and more transparent, so that decision makers can be held accountable and decisions are made compatible with representative democracy.
		Third, the main problems of megaprojects so far ~ overestimation of benefits, cost overrun, intransparency and interest-group domination ~ may be significantly resolved via improved procedures of participative planning, open information exchange, multi-stakeholder evaluation (including independent counter-expertise) and the use of professional methods, and experts, for economic, social and environmental impacts analysis.
		There is an Appendix: ‘Risk and accountability at work’, providing a systematic review of plans for a fixed transport connection across the Fehmarn Belt between Denmark and Germany.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2004-October/001966.html (1323 words)

	Template w/ Header
		An individual who engages in the planning fallacy makes _____ attributions about the failure of past projects.
		One of the explanations concerning the planning fallacy is that
		Too embarrassed to ask who she is, Ralph looks for the person who seems to be the best dressed, and who seems to have the biggest aura of power about her.
	www.lions.odu.edu /~hgillen/PT3.html (1568 words)

	2001-2002 Guilford Award Abstracts - Psi Chi
		This study simultaneously tests 2 hypotheses concerning the planning fallacy, or people's tendency to underestimate their task-completion times.
		The self-protection hypothesis suggests that people make unrealistic predictions in order to guard against threats to their self-beliefs of diligence, competence, and other favorable qualities.
		Results suggest that in addition to contributing to the planning fallacy, self-presentation may be a necessary condition.
	www.psichi.org /awards/winners/abstracts/guilford_02.asp (527 words)

	Old Gold and Black > Qwake Magazine
		Stone suggests that a planning fallacy is one underlying reason for the tendency of people to procrastinate.
		The planning fallacy explains the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions.
		The problem with the planning fallacy is that the chance of everything falling perfectly into place is very small.
	ogb.wfu.edu /Qwake.php?id=2378_0_13_0_M (833 words)

	Bicycle Blunders -- #5 Planning & Engineering (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		There is an inherent fallacy in the practice of building separate bikeways (sidepaths and bicycle lanes) alongside roadways.
		The fallacy is the assumption that such facilities make cycling safe for those who do not know how to do it properly.
		One of the most inexcusable examples of carelessness in bike lane design is illustrated by this statement: The City of Chicago installs bike lanes on streets as narrow as 44 feet wide with parking on both sides.
	www.labreform.org /blunders/b5.html (3300 words)

	International Strategy
		Planning is a goal plus a (strategy) to achieve that goal
		Planning is a good thing and one of the key tasks of management
		This CAN be very important, if all stakeholders can see and understand what the organization is about, they are more likely to focus their effort.
	falcon.jmu.edu /~gallagsr/iman7.html (327 words)

	purevolume™ \| The Planning Fallacy
		You rock big time, like mucho galore big time.
		The Planning Fallacy hasn't posted any shows yet.
		All songs, lyrics and pictures © 2005 The Planning Fallacy.
	www.purevolume.com /theplanningfallacy (263 words)

	[Jdm-society] Planning fallacy of Sydney Opera House (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		Next message: [Jdm-society] Planning fallacy of Sydney Opera House
		Dear Colleagues, From a relatively recent conference (JDM, SPUDM, or one of the JDM sessions at Psychonomics, I'm not sure), I have a recollection of watching a talk wherein the speaker introduced the Sydney Opera House case as an impressive example of planning fallacy.
		He gave the audience figures of initial budget and anticipated period toward completing its construction.
	www.sjdm.org /mail-archive/jdm-society/2004-October/001962.html (241 words)

	Mark Pezzo
		Sensemaking as it relates to hindsight bias, planning fallacy; curiosity, offense taking, and the spread of rumors; size overestimations of minority groups ; medical decision making.
		On the distinction between yuppies and hippies: Individual differences in the planning fallacy.
		Pezzo, S.P., Pezzo, M.V., and Stone, E.R. The social implications of planning: How public predictions bias future plans.
	www1.stpt.usf.edu /pezzo (240 words)

	"Planning Fallacy" : Articles : HEARTLIGHT® Magazine
		Home > Articles > Making Life Work > "Planning Fallacy"
		I read about a thing called “planning fallacy” in American Psychologist the other day.
		Scripture quotations are taken from the Easy-to-Read Version copyright © 2001 by World Bible Translation Center.
	www.heartlight.org /articles/200206/20020626_family1162.html (287 words)

	Procrastination Publications
		Buehler, R., and Griffin, D. Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions.
		Pychyl, T. A., Morin, R. W., and Salmon, B. Procrastination and the planning fallacy: An examination of the study habits of university students.
		Tuckman, B. The effect of student planning and self-competence on self-motivated performance.
	www.ucalgary.ca /~steel/procrastinus/pubs/publications.html (8644 words)

	Ramirez & Damm Abstract (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		The dominant explanation of this phenomenon was given by Kahneman and Tversky in the 1970's.
		They dubbed the effect the 'planning fallacy' and argue that subjects fail to take into account their own memories of past duration times when making future predictions.
		More recently this interpretation has been challenged and empirical evidence appears to support a new interpretation: Memory Bias.
	mind.ucsd.edu /epl/abstracts/02-03/Ramirez-05-05-04.html (167 words)

	DesGriffin.com - Choice Theory and decision -making: Coping with ambiguity requires patience (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		In planning major initiatives, executives often exaggerate the benefits and discount the costs, setting themselves up for failure.
		A high number of business failures are the consequence of flawed decision making.
		When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives fall victim to the planning fallacy.
	www.desgriffin.com /leadership/choice_theory.htm (2422 words)

	CiteULike: Tag duration (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		The Broad Applicability of Memory Bias and Its Coexistence With the Planning Fallacy: Reply to Griffin and Buehler (2005)
		posted to bias duration future memory planning planning-fallacy by stefanherzog as
		Biases and Fallacies, Memories and Predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)
	www.citeulike.org /tag/duration (149 words)

	GuffMusic.com (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-11)
		The website may go down in the next couple of days since we are changing provider plans.
		Thanks to everyone who came out last night to MOONBEAM COFFEE, we had a great time and we can't wait to come back-Check back here or at our MySpace account to see when the next dates that we'll be in your area are!
		We will be planning some broader touring for April and May. And, best of all, there has been talk of routing a late-spring tour out west, with the promise of recording a new record once we're there.
	www.guffmusic.com (1407 words)

	Minnesota State University Psychology Department
		I am working on three research topics at the moment.
		First, I am studying the planning fallacy in the workplace.
		The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate one's own task completion times.
	www.mnsu.edu /psych/dan_s.html (161 words)

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