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	Policy Analysis Market - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		PAM was to be a "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of futures contracts based on possible political developments in several Middle Eastern countries.
		One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the University of Iowa, which has allegedly proven more accurate in predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections than either opinion polls or political pundits.
		PAM was also inspired by the work of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Policy_Analysis_Market (484 words)

	DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market (PAM) Cancelled
		Markets must also offer compensation that is ethically and legally satisfactory to all sectors involved, while remaining attractive enough to ensure full and continuous participation of individual parties.
		The issues represented by PAM contracts may be interrelated; for example, the economic health of a country may affect civil stability in the country and the disposition of one country’s military may affect the disposition of another country’s military.
		Trading on PAM is placed in the context of the region using a trading language designed for the fields of policy, security, and risk analysis.
	www.iwar.org.uk /news-archive/tia/futuremap-program.htm (1791 words)

	CCC - DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market (The "Terrorism Market") (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		The idea of efficient markets was in vogue mainly in the 1970s, and while still a formidable theory, it has lost much of its luster—no doubt partially the reason so few prominent economists came to the program's defense.
		As noted, the main public criticisms of PAM came from politicians and editorial writers, who somewhat unfairly focused on the potential use of the Policy Analysis Market to predict terrorist acts and assassinations—markets unlikely to ever be included in the PAM.
		PAM's market efficiency premise is no longer the dominant market theory as in the 1970s.
	www.au.af.mil /au/awc/awcgate/nps/pam/si_pam.htm (5263 words)

	Non-Partisan Analysis in a Partisan World (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Policy schools were springing up across the country and I enrolled in the University of California at Berkeley's Graduate School of Public Policy (GSPPâ€”now the Goldman School).
		After offering solution options in a range of policy areas, ranging from welfare reform to health care to transportation funding, we have found that the risks are worth taking and that our analysis has provided an effective starting point for legislative deliberations.
		Given the plethora of sources of advice, not to mention the policy analysis available from academia and national institutions, it is critical for us to be familiar with a broad spectrum of perspectives in the advice world.
	www.lao.ca.gov /staff/journal_articles/Non-Partisan_Analysis.aspx (1393 words)

	Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections - A look at the short-lived Policy Analysis Market in the US
		The markets are supposed to be leading indicators, and the geniuses behind this initiative thought that PAM would be an early warning system, helping US authorities predict acts of terrorism and other developments in the Middle-East.
		A PAM contract would have been an extreme specialty investment and the antithesis of what would be a suitable choice for a manager of an ethical fund.
		If you are too conservative to play in that market yet think that the government of that oil producing government will in fact be overthrown, hold energy funds or at least fill up your gas tank when the price per litre is 68.9 cents or less.
	www.gasandoil.com /goc/news/ntn33873.htm (888 words)

	Reason Magazine - Betting On Terror
		The PAM concept is the brainchild of George Mason University economics professor Robin Hanson.
		Markets have demonstrated time and time again that people have a lot of dispersed and hidden information that the prospect of profit can lure into the open.
		The PAM website offered example contracts (apparently pulled in deference to the Senators' delicate sensibilities) in which traders would bid on things such as the likelihood that the King of Jordan would be overthrown, that Yasser Arafat would be assassinated or that North Korea would launch a missile attack.
	www.reason.com /news/show/34849.html (1265 words)

	Operations Research Management Science - Futures Market
		First, the future market situation or event to be predicted must be stated in a manner that makes it clear for participants to know how their expectations relate to the cash dividend of the respective shares of stock.
		The basic idea of such an application is that a participant's performance at a virtual stock market can be used as an indicator of his or her knowledge and involvement in the issue to be predicted at the VSM.
		A further benefit of a VSM similar to the "policy analysis market" is the aggregation of information by an "objective" mechanism, i.e., the market mechanism.
	www.lionhrtpub.com /orms/orms-10-03/frfutures.html (2741 words)

	Catallaxis: Policy Analysis Market: Positive and Normative Perspectives
		Therefore, the debates over economic policy are often framed in terms of positive claims vs. normative claims that are difficult to reconcile, because one set of claims calls for empirical validation to ensure the policy works, while the other calls for ethical validation to ensure it is appropriate.
		Indeed, one of the great virtues of a market is its unmatched ability to assemble in one spacio-temporal pattern of price data the private expectations of a great diversity of people whose opinions might not otherwise be factored into the experts’ assessment of the future.
		The positive validity claims of market theory that were employed in support of the Policy Analysis Market presuppose a spontaneously self-organizing process of exchange involving property rights legitimized, first and foremost, by the parties to each exchange.
	www.catallaxis.com /2005/03/policy_analysis.html (1201 words)

	Policy Analysis Market and the Political Yuck. (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		The ongoing 9/11 enquiry in the U.S. has suggested that more vigilant market analysis would have indicated that some attack was in the pipeline, while a recent Channel 4 report on political futures markets showed that there is still some public interest in the idea.
		In this way futures markets collate opinions, and somewhere in the mass of whispers that is "general opinion", there is more than likely to be some genuine, hard information about the probability of a certain future.
		It is clear that, while futures markets can't be treated as a geo-political crystal ball, they do gather a certain amount of information, which is why political analysts in the Middle East, for example, do tend to keep an eye on oil markets.
	www.sirc.org /articles/policy_analysis.shtml (1946 words)

	Policy Analysis Market - SourceWatch
		The Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was a prediction market proposed by DARPA to have opened October 1, 2003.
		Since legal clearance for the PAM was achieved, and every American is in theory identical under the law, it appears the legal way is clear for private sector or competing nonprofit prediction markets even in very contentious events.
		Clearing the way for private markets in which insiders can directly profit from their foreknowledge of US government action, or from access to intelligence, may and build up a market of willing bettors, may well have been the entire motivation for the original announcement.
	www.sourcewatch.org /index.php?title=Policy_Analysis_Market (407 words)

	Sites to pick up terrorism futures market \| Tech News on ZDNet (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Futures markets for everything from box office receipts to orange juice have often proven uncannily accurate at assessing the likelihood of a potential outcome, and economists said political contracts were the next logical step.
		For some economists who have studied the prophetic power of markets, the fundamental idea of betting on political events is not that far fetched.
		Wolfers said the idea that such markets could predict an event like the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. was "just plain wrong" because it would be very difficult to devise contracts on such a low probability event as terrorism.
	zdnet.com.com /2100-1105_2-5061397.html (913 words)

	Planning, Budget, and Analysis: Market, Economic, and Policy Analysis
		Public benefits analysis estimates the future benefits of EERE programs under the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993, and retroactively assesses the benefits of past program activities.
		Market analysis looks at factors that shape the markets for EERE products, and provides sector-specific information needed for benefits and policy analysis.
		These can include portfolio analysis, methods of calculating or describing energy security and environmental benefits, analytic participation in international working groups, and EERE input to departmental and administration-wide energy policies and strategic plans.
	www.eere.energy.gov /ba/pba/market.html (304 words)

	Market Gap Analysis - A DigitalHatch Service
		Market Gap Analysis focuses on using a systematic research approach to discover and uncover sales opportunities where market demand is greater than supply.
		Market Gap Analysis is a proactive approach to meet identified market demand.
		Market Research is a reactive approach to help understand how you position, sell and distribute products and services into an existing market where demand is already determined (or perceived to be determined).
	www.marketgapanalysis.com /default.htm (793 words)

	Defense Tech: DARPA DESIGNING TERROR MARKET
		According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon has requested $3 million for the Policy Analysis Market for next year and $5 million for the year after.
		Two small firms -- Market Technologies Systems (the professors behind the famed Iowa Electronic Markets election exchange) and Neoteric Technologies -- received grants from DARPA to build such operations.
		Two of their trading floors are up on the web, currently: One market speculates in homeland security threat levels; the other in the spread of SARS.
	www.defensetech.org /archives/000514.html (371 words)

	NREL: Energy Analysis - Market Analysis
		The Market Analysis Team has core capabilities in performing project financial evaluations and public policy financial impact assessments using a financial analysis model, RETFinance.
		The Market Analysis Team promotes and facilitates greater adoption of renewable energy technologies (RET) in the electric marketplace by working with utilities and other industry stakeholders to identify appropriate technologies and to address system integration issues.
		The Market Analysis Team fosters improved understanding of the role of renewables in energy markets by identifying market barriers and opportunities, and promoting market-based solutions, when possible, to achieve greater renewable energy deployment.
	www.nrel.gov /analysis/market_analysis.html (942 words)

	Save the Pentagon futures market! - By James Surowiecki - Slate Magazine
		PAM might also have been effective because traders in a market have no incentive other than making the right prediction—that is, there are no bureaucratic or political factors influencing their decisions—so they eliminate many of the hurdles that limit the flow of information within organizations.
		As Daniel Gross pointed out yesterday, if the market was accurate, and the Defense Department acted on its predictions to stop, say, the assassination of the king of Jordan, it would make the traders' predictions false and thereby destroy the incentives to make good predictions.
		As for the much-bruited idea that PAM would have allowed terrorists to bet on themselves, thereby letting them profit from their own misdeeds, this was a pure red herring.
	www.slate.com /id/2086427 (1749 words)

	Policy Analysis Market Archive (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		Press/Media on PAM that mentions the author, press/media that does not, and blogs.
		The winners were Neoteric Technologies, subcontracting to Martek and professors at the University of Iowa, and Net Exchange, founded by a Caltech professor (John Ledyard) and subcontracting to professors at George Mason University (myself and David Porter), and later to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
		While we had considered running markets within government agencies, we choose public markets due to legal problems with conditional transfers of money between agencies and the absence of a single agency strongly interested in collaborating.
	hanson.gmu.edu /policyanalysismarket.html (1108 words)

	Would you invest in terrorism? - By Daniel Gross - Slate Magazine
		Policy market day-traders who don't speak Arabic or have access to classified information wouldn't necessarily make worse bets than the professionals who spend their days sifting through Al Hayat and humintel reports.
		The Policy Analysis Marketplace, brought to you by Admiral John Poindexter and the pointy-headed fellows at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which employs him.
		The problem with a futures market for terrorism is that such a market would have a systematic bias towards secrecy built into it.
	www.slate.com /id/2086315 (1906 words)

	Terrorism futures market gets second lease on life
		The market, which is intended to be an analysis tool to track and predict events in the Middle East, was developed for DARPA by Net Exchange of San Diego.
		In the months since its initial exposure, “solid reporting has conveyed that PAM was never intended as a market in terror,”; according to an announcement on www.policyanalysismarket.com.
		A number of economists have said that futures and other financial markets have proved effective in predicting events, and that a tool such as PAM could be useful in understanding and predicting events in volatile parts of the world.
	www.gcn.com /online/vol1_no1/24187-1.html (330 words)

	USNews.com: Lou Dobbs laments the Pentagon's decision to deep-six the Policy Analysis Market
		USNews.com: Lou Dobbs laments the Pentagon's decision to deep-six the Policy Analysis Market
		There is a minor problem with all their declarations about the Policy Analysis Market: It just might have been the most accurate predictor of terrorist activity available to us in the war against radical Islamists.
		Opponents of the Policy Analysis Market, including Dorgan's South Dakota colleague Sen. Tom Daschle, complained that the system would produce undesired side effects, saying the program would be "an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism." Even by Daschle's standards that rhetoric is hyperbolic nonsense.
	www.usnews.com /usnews/opinion/articles/030811/11dobbs.htm (737 words)

	Wired News: Bets Off on Terror Futures Index (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-12)
		A graphic on the market's Web page Monday showed hypothetical futures contracts in which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah II would be overthrown.
		Wyden said the Policy Analysis Market is under the supervision of retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information Awareness program and, in the 1980s, national security adviser to President Reagan.
		The market would have initially be limited to 1,000 traders, increasing to at least 10,000 by Jan. 1.
	www.wired.com /news/politics/0,1283,59813,00.html (1060 words)

	Energy Market & Policy Analysis, Inc., Case No. VFA-0222, November 18, 1996
		On October 18, 1996, Energy Market and Policy Analysis, Inc. filed an Appeal from a determination issued to it on October 9, 1996, by the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the Department of Energy (DOE).
		In its Appeal, Energy Market and Policy Analysis, Inc. argues that the information it received on October 9, 1996 is not all of the information responsive to its FOIA request.
		Specifically, Energy Market and Policy Analysis, Inc. states that additional information must exist to backup the calculations outlined in the budget documents.
	www.oha.doe.gov /cases/foia/vfa0222.htm (882 words)

	Opinions on prediction markets - 2003
		Policy Analysis Market] - by Robin Hanson and Alexander Tabarrok - 2003-08-04
		Policy Analysis Market] - by Eli Lehrer - 2003-07-30
		Policy Analysis Market] - by Henry Farrell - 2003-07-29
	www.chrisfmasse.com /3/3/opinion/2003 (759 words)

	Quantitative Methods for Policy Analysis: Multi-market Modeling - IFPRI South Asia Initiative Training Workshop
		Hence, policies that affect trade and market reforms in agriculture are crucial and should be implemented in a way that the poor segments of the society benefits.
		Distortions in agriculture markets both in developed and developing countries have resulted in unequal distribution of benefits whereby the poor are often affected disproportionately.
		The methods for analyzing agriculture market reforms for policy purposes remain poorly understood and the analysis that is undertaken is rarely applied in the region's policymaking context.
	www.ifpri.org /training/ws/20050725sai.asp (621 words)

	Wired News: The Case for Terrorism Futures
		Senators expressed concerns when they discovered the PAM project, an effort to speculate on possible events in the Middle East -- like the overthrow of Jordan's monarchy or the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat -- as if they were stocks.
		The futures market, ugly as it may sound, doesn't involve any of those moral compromises, said Robin Hanson, one of the earlier promoters of the concept of trading floors for ideas and a PAM project contributor.
		But over the course of 14 elections, the Iowa Electronic Markets' stock prices were on average a half of a percentage point closer to the results of the actual political races than the final polls were.
	www.wired.com /news/politics/0,1283,59818,00.html (649 words)

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