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Topic: Prediction market


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  Faculty Personal Page
The key parameters driving trading behavior in prediction markets are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of beliefs in a couple of interesting contexts.
Prediction market based analyses of elections from 1880 to 2000 also suggest that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by roughly 2.5 percent.
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as “information markets,” “idea futures” or “event futures”, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts.
faculty-gsb.stanford.edu /zitzewitz/prediction.htm   (1288 words)

  
 Prediction Markets
Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions.
Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations.
www.kmcluster.com /sfo/PM/PM.htm   (365 words)

  
 Risk Markets And Politics: Prediction Market Predictions
Prediction markets tied to tax- and subsidy-related legislation provide strong incentives for "latent" groups to form and give special interests a way to hedge their legislative fortunes.
Attempts to seriously use prediction markets as a new form of intellectual property will encounter no-trade conditions.
A major advantage of online prediction markets is their ease of use and expanded client-base versus traditional futures markets.
riskmarkets.blogspot.com /2006/01/prediction-market-predictions.html   (1098 words)

  
 Commonly Asked Questions about the Influenza Prediction Markets   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
Prediction markets, with as few as 20 or 30 traders, can yield good results, but the accuracy tends to improve as the number of traders increases.
New prediction markets could be created almost overnight to address new emerging infectious diseases even before a specific etiologic agent has been identified.
The markets run by the University of Iowa are run for educational and academic research purposes, which is their "social good".
www.biz.uiowa.edu /IEM/fluprediction/caq.html   (2156 words)

  
 UI Researchers Receive $1.1 Million Grant To Expand Influenza Prediction Market - University News Service - The ...
The market began as a pilot project in February 2004 with a focus on influenza activity in Iowa.
Co-investigators on the influenza prediction market are George Neumann, professor of economics, and Phil Polgreen M.D., infectious disease physician in the department of internal medicine.
During the influenza market's pilot phase, it was used to predict activity exclusively within Iowa and only health care professionals took part as traders.
www.news-releases.uiowa.edu /2005/september/092305flu_market.html   (817 words)

  
 Prediction Labs Inc. the market prediction experts.
Prediction Labs offers a market prediction data feed that can be embedded on any market charting product or signaling product as an Add-On.
This new market scenario makes difficult for the traditional trader to be up to date on every aspect of this new world and be able to deliver consistent positive results.
Prediction Labs has developed a world class technology that allow us to build fully automated trading systems which are able to handle information from different markets, react and make trading decisions based on that data.
www.predictionlabs.com /overview.html   (458 words)

  
 MARKET DATA PREDICTION WITH AN ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER
Prediction science has its foundations in mathematical statistics where, until recently, predictions involved a large number of calculations based on complicated mathematical models and had few practical applications.
At every point in the time-series, a prediction is made of the next value based a few of the most recent estimates, and on the data-model contained in the Kalman filter equations.
Then, the next actual data point is read, and a compromise value between the predicted and actual values is calculated based on the amount of noise in the time-series.
www.haikulabs.com /kalman.htm   (2418 words)

  
 The Chris. F. Masse 2005 Awards — Prediction Markets & Decision Markets — by Chris. F. Masse — ...
Blog of the Year 2005: Jason Ruspini (a quantitative analyst at a NYC hedge fund, and a new entrant in the prediction market commentariat) — I give the 2005 award to Jason Ruspini's blog, in spite of the fact that only his postings made during the last quarter of 2005 are newsworthy.
Market of the Year 2005: The Harriet Miers confirmation prediction market @ InTrade/TradeSports — Eddy Elfenbein (who daily blogs at Crossing Wall Street) noticed an implied Miers withdrawal contract worth 55.8%, on October 22, 2005, five days before it was disclosed that she bowed out of the race.
Alito nomination prediction market at TradeSports/InTrade] --- On Oct. 27, after White House General Counsel Harriet Miers asked President Bush to withdraw her nomination to the high court, Intrade began offering contracts with a nominal value of $10 on each of 28 candidates thought to be in the running to replace her.
www.chrisfmasse.com /2/2006/2006-03-06_prediction_markets_awards.html   (6676 words)

  
 The University of Chicago Law School Faculty Blog: Corporate Prediction Markets
Appropriate prediction market design can combat the “rational apathy” that plagues shareholder votes, while market participants would still have incentives to take into account the recommendations of corporate officials, to the extent that those recommendations may reflect information unavailable to market participants.
Appropriately designed prediction markets may also serve as a weak substitute for insider trading, producing an alternative avenue for insiders to profit on and thus reveal inside information, without creating an unlevel playing field in the market for a firm’s securities.
In a real-money market the distribution of budgets may actually degrade the informational interpretation of price, as certain biases can have a disproportionate effect on the market (although this would be somewhat canceled by the fact that a large budget might correspond to past success in the market).
uchicagolaw.typepad.com /faculty/2006/05/corporate_predi.html   (2427 words)

  
 Prediction market - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market.
Since 1988, it has predicted the results of American presidential elections more accurately than traditional polls 75 percent of the time.
However, Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium" [4] has shown that prediction market prices are typically very close to the mean belief of market participants if the distribution of beliefs is smooth (as with a normal distribution, for example).
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Prediction_market   (1759 words)

  
 Otter Group :: Prediction Markets   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
We designed the market so that the price of an event should, in theory, reflect a consensus probability that the event will occur…the average price, which is how often outcomes in that group should actually happen according to market prices…[and] how often they did happen…they're pretty close.
Wolfers and Zitzewitz recently published Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities that claims that "prediction market prices are usually close to the mean beliefs of traders" and concludes...
Trials of prediction markets are demonstrating their usefulness, but people who want to make use of them are handicapped by not having access to tools that make them straightforward to deploy.
www.ottergroup.com /blog/PredictionMarkets   (1065 words)

  
 The Market Forecast (via CobWeb/3.1 planetlab2.isi.jhu.edu)   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
Market Forecast users are enjoying serious returns in and out of their retirement accounts.
Every morning, Market Forecast users log in and are shown where the Dow and Nasdaq are going, not just it terms of direction, but the POWER behind the move and the TIME it should take.
Prior to stock market's opening bell, you'll have the current Market Forecast graphs showing you where stock markets are going to move for the day, for the week, and even for the next couple of months.
www.themarketforecast.com.cob-web.org:8888   (3238 words)

  
 Unicast: Prediction market mini-conf in London
The market structure is a parimutuel market, but because of the use of limit orders, participants would not be forced to take unfavorable odds, which is the case in real parimutuel markets.
His paper is to some extent a response to Manski's result that prediction market prices do not have a clear interpretation, and in particular they can not generally be interpreted as probabilities or a weighted average of beliefs.
Koleman Strumpf presented a paper on manipulation in the political stock markets that ran in the US from the Civil War through World War 2 as well as the results of a field experiment in the Iowa Electronic Market.
unicast.org /archives/004035.html   (1189 words)

  
 Mike Linksvayer » Prediction Markets   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
I noted with interest that the journal is to be published by the University of Buckingham Press, the publishing arm of apparently the only university in the UK jurisdiction not funded by the state.
I suspect the implication is that although making sense of prediction markets seems a little harder the critique probably applies more strongly to bureaucratic goal setting, making market mechanisms look relatively better than in absence of the critique.
I have probably suggested too many times that prediction markets could help remind voters that the most likely outcomes are not those predicted by politicians.
gondwanaland.com /mlog/category/prediction-markets   (6068 words)

  
 Flu Prediction Markets   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
Influenza occurs on a predictable seasonal basis during the winter months and there is evidence that it has done so for hundreds of years.
We propose that markets for infectious diseases may be useful for predicting infectious disease activity quickly, accurately, and inexpensively by aggregating the expert opinion of health care professionals.
The Influenza Market is a futures market and operates very much like the commodity markets in Chicago and New York, though the "contracts" traded are claims to future payments that depend on the timing and extent of influenza activity.
iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu /OUTBREAK/index.html   (1315 words)

  
 FOXNews.com - Prediction Market Could Supercede Polling - You Decide 2004
"Market manipulation fails because if a whole bunch of guys bet on a candidate, then a bunch of other guys will make money betting against him, so the price will return where it should be," said Wolfers, author of a new study on prediction and gambling markets.
Knesevitch said that the political futures market is a self-regulated marketplace that prevents the kind of shortchanging that can happen in other types of betting pools.
The political futures market is "not something we see as a viable way to poll or determine who has an advantage in the race," said Hull communications director Jason Erkes.
www.foxnews.com /story/0,2933,108791,00.html   (1148 words)

  
 Prediction Market by NewsFutures.com
Prediction markets deliver clear, accurate forecasts on almost any issue for corporations and media organizations.
Prediction markets deliver in real-time the consensus opinion of all those who know and care about your organization's prospects.
A new Journal of Prediction Markets will be launched in November by The University of Buckingham Press.
us.newsfutures.com /home/home.html   (246 words)

  
 UCLA - Earth and Space Sciences - Prediction: The future of the USA stock market - August 19, 2005
Why Stock Markets Crash: For a general presentation of the underlying concepts, theory, empirical tests and concrete applications, with a discussion of previous predictions, see the recent book, Why Stock Markets Crash.
We have included the third-order Landau LPPL forecast because we believe it is possible that the market is undergoing a transition from the second-order regime that started approximately at the end of 2002 to the third-order regime, after more than 2.5 years.
[4] A. Johansen and D. Sornette, Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999, Int.
www.ess.ucla.edu /faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp   (917 words)

  
 Prediction Markets - Intrade - 2006 Mid Term Elections Trading   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
Intrade prediction markets and event futures provide clear and accurate forecasts on issues of importance to traders, the media and the public at large.
Intrade is the leading public prediction market platform.
Intrade part of Trade Exchange Network is an event futures and prediction market trading exchange registered in Ireland, Co # 352224.
www.intrade.com   (189 words)

  
 Cenimar - Prediction Market - Trading Strategies
Don't forget that every week you login to Cenimar and trade on the Prediction Market you are given a weekly allowance of up to I$40.
Most markets rely on Market Makers to ensure that a trading opportunity is always available for other traders.
Although this 50 page pdf document is designed to provide information about the commercial US Futures Markets, it also provides background information that might be interesting to users of the Cenimar Prediction Market.
www.cenimar.com /market/strategies.jsp   (1414 words)

  
 Prediction Market Software and Consulting Solutions by Consensus Point   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
The Foresight Server is a prediction market software platform that has been specifically designed for the enterprise environment.
A prediction market is a type of trading system that functions just like other exchanges - buy low, sell high.
The market stays open 24/7/365, which provides a continuous stream of information about the likelihood of future events.
www.consensuspoint.com /products.php   (625 words)

  
 CrowdIQ - Build Your Own Prediction Market - Mashable!
I’ve already expressed my conclusions on prediction markets, but to recap: markets are only profitable if you can get a piece of every transaction.
I think prediction markets are a viable idea that could potentially be big.
In addition to that, many of these companies created a market where the the value of the market increases as the number of active participating users increase, in essence creating a commodity for the users using that site.
mashable.com /2006/03/17/crowdiq-build-your-own-prediction-market   (489 words)

  
 Virtual Projects: : Prediction and market   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
One difference between Information markets and normal stock markets is the fact that the motivation is solely monetary, the price money (a kind of dividend) when the market closes, and perhaps trading profits.
The price money (payoff) to be paid to share owners when the market is closed and the expenditures for the market platform define the costs that have to be covered by the gain in information.
The purpose of an information market is to answer a question or to come to a decision, in a defined period.
www.vrtprj.com /weblog/pm/predictionnadmarket.html   (446 words)

  
 Mike Linksvayer » Three open source prediction market software options
The software that has run Foresight Exchange for many years (and soon a political market) was open sourced today (under an odd license).
This entry was posted on Monday, August 29th, 2005 at 22:34 and is filed under Economics, Prediction Markets, Open Source.
With the open market software still rare in South Africa, how does one begin to create software such as Symbian for Nokia smartphones if there wont be anywhere where one can get assistance localy.
gondwanaland.com /mlog/2005/08/29/open-source-prediction-market   (515 words)

  
 UsableMarkets - markets, design, usability, research » Prediction Markets   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
StorageMarkets in particular appears to be an improvement on the now defunct Corning LCD market, which did not appear to provide any value to its sponsor.
Sermo is another example of an industry focused market.
Not so much prediction market as a “conversation” among physicians, where medical observations are ranked for importance, Sermo extends the concept of a market of ideas in a way that doctors are actually interested in participating in.
www.usablemarkets.com /?cat=2   (1397 words)

  
 UsableMarkets - markets, design, usability, research » 2006 » October   (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
Asking geeky questions such as, “When will a single networking architecture that includes storage predominate in the market,” that can only be answered by people who are ITK (in-the-know), these new markets will be focused on gathering competitive intelligence to sell to, and be used by, industry participants.
With so many industries left, and more and more companies seemingly willing to take a chance on prediction markets, I’m betting that we’ll see a lot more interesting prediction markets in the future … and not just sporting related ones.
Users can not only make a prediction over a specified time frame, they can also indicate how big they think the move will be.
www.usablemarkets.com /?m=200610   (1553 words)

  
 Prediction Markets Cluster
The goal is to provide awareness, diffusion and adoption of information and prediction markets practice, tools and theory.
is to shape and catalyzes a community of information and prediction market suppliers, users, professionals and others wanting to benefit from fundamental advancements in information and prediction markets.
This Website is for the information and prediction markets community and stakeholders.
www.pmcluster.com   (138 words)

  
 Cenimar - Prediction Market - How it works
Signing up to use the market is as simple as confirming your email address.
To do well on the market, you will become familiar with things that affect the everyday life of you and the rest of the world.
While the Contract is active, the Market Maker sells Shares of the individual Options to other traders and those traders can also sell their Shares to other traders (or back to the Market Maker).
www.cenimar.com /market/index.jsp   (1306 words)

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