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Topic: Probability of kill

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	Probability of kill - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Statistical decisions are required when all of the variables that must be considered are not incorporated into the model, similar to the actuarial methods used by insurance companies to deal with large numbers of customers and huge numbers of variables.
		The Probability of Kill (or PK) is usually based on a Uniform random number generator.
		For example, if a weapon is expected to hit and kill a target nine times out of ten with a representative set of ten engagements, one could say that this weapon has a “PK” of 0.9.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Probability_of_kill (377 words)

	FM 20-32 PART ONE CHAPTER 2
		The probabilities of encounter and kill measure a minefield's lethality.
		The probability of encounter is measured by the chance (in percent) that a vehicle, blindly moving through a minefield, will detonate a mine.
		The probability of kill is measured by the chance (in percent) that a vehicle will no longer be mission-capable (M-Kill or K-Kill) because of mine effects.
	globalsecurity.org /military/library/policy/army/fm/20-32/chap2.html (4768 words)

	Damage Criteria for Fragmentation Warheads
		Therefore, the measure of the most probable distance from the point of impact and/or detonation to the target is the circular error probable (CEP).
		For the purpose of estimating the probability of kill, we will use the CEP as the distance from the point of detonation of the warhead to the target.
		It is probably unwise to assume an armored vehicle could be stopped by a fragmentation warhead.
	www.fas.org /man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/dam_crit/dam_crit.htm (1579 words)

	Free-TermPapers.com - Helicopter Antisubmarine Operations
		It was found that in developing the model, an estimate of the probability of killing a submarine was based on the distance to contact datum and the number of torpedoes carried.
		Even though the model inflated the actual kill probability, it did so proportionally with each variable, so that the choice of carrying two or three torpedoes was not affected by this inaccuracy.
		In this case, probability of a kill increased by 17% when a third torpedo was carried.
	www.free-termpapers.com /tp/28/mdg25.shtml (1477 words)

	3.1- Kill Signals
		If one assumes that the kill signal is delivered and acted upon much more rapidly than the virus can spread, it can be shown that the virus can be pushed below the epidemic threshold even if the infected individual only delivers the kill signal to a fraction of its associates.
		Specifically, a kill signal is born at a node whenever the virus dies there.
		The kill signals strongly suppress the equilibrium virus population -- by a factor of nearly 16 in this example.
	www.research.ibm.com /antivirus/SciPapers/Kephart/PREV/prevalence.gopher-node4.html (1454 words)

	Killer Ants (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		The probability for this adult ant to kill its opponent is specified by the kill probability parameter.
		By playing with the maturity and the kill probability parameters, one can adjust the population of the colony to a fairly stable value (with the default settings, population stabilizes around 150-200 ants).
		It is not advisable to set the kill probability to zero, because ants then will overcrowd the colony (fights being the only cause of death).
	pubpages.unh.edu /~charpov/Programming/KillerAnts (388 words)

	SURVIAC Models- JSEM
		The Joint Service Endgame Model is a computerized simulation used to evaluate the kill probability attained by a missile warhead or projectile detonating near an airborne target.
		JSEM uses probability of kill given a hit (Pk/h) table output files from the SURVIAC vulnerability model the Computation of Vulnerable Areas and Repair Times (COVART) is the most common method of obtaining vulnerability input to JSEM.
		Other optional files contain last component hit versus the detonation position, probability of kill versus detonation for each encounter, probability of kill summary, a list of subroutines accessed during the run and fragment intercept coordinates.
	www.bahdayton.com /surviac/jsem.htm (397 words)

	MITRE - News and Events - MITRE Publications - The Edge - June 1999 - Attack Operations Decision Aid
		The probability of target kill is in turn a function of the probability of weapon asset’s safe ingress to the target area, the probability of target acquisition by the asset’s on-board sensors, and the probability of target destruction with the weapon load on the asset.
		For the adjusted weapon asset value, the weapon asset’s intrinsic value (defined earlier) is multiplied by the probability of the weapon asset being killed in the assignment while its dynamic value or the opportunity cost (also defined earlier) will be included in full regardless of the weapon asset being killed or not.
		The probability of a weapon asset being killed is calculated from the probability of its safe ingress and the probability of its safe egress, both of which depend on the threats present on the asset’s flight route.
	www.mitre.org /news/the_edge/june_99/cho.html (1238 words)

	RAND \| Paul Baran: Distributed Communications - Introduction to Distributed Communications Network - Examination of a ...
		The probability of kill was varied from zero to unity along the abscissa while the ordinate marks survivability.
		The criterion of survivability used is the percentage of stations not physically destroyed and remaining in communications with the largest single group of surviving stations.
		For example, if a network underwent an attack of 0.5 probability destruction of each of its nodes, then only 50 per cent of its nodes would be expected to survive--regardless of how perfect its communications.
	www.rand.org /publications/RM/RM3420/RM3420.chapter2.html (1047 words)

	Terra Nova: Shoot to kill
		All the concerns about clean kills, safety, discarded shells starting brushfires and such are irrelevant here, as there's a live person standing next to the mechanism that does the shooting, watching for that kind of thing.
		Hunting is where you go out looking for something to kill, shooting is where you wait for it to come to you, and fishing is where you use a rod and line to catch fish.
		Formally, it depends on the probability of kill and the probability of death I would think i.e.
	terranova.blogs.com /terra_nova/2005/05/shoot_to_kill.html (3837 words)

	The Radar Game
		Probability of kill means applying enough firepower not only to hit the other aircraft but to actually destroy or disable it.
		If the aircraft is hit, probability of kill would depend on the nature and extent of the damage.
		No attempt was made to assess how many shots it would take to kill the aircraft or how many missiles the air defense system possessed.
	www.afa.org /magazine/Feb1999/0299radar.asp (4163 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		This fault probability (FP) is simply the ratio of the critical area associated with that particular defect type to the total area of the chip.
		FP is a function of parameters associated with both the defect itself and the layout of the die: the size and type of the defect, and the circuit's geometry.
		A KR can be defined as the ratio of the increased chance, or probability, of a die failing due to a particular defect type A present on it to the probability that the die will not fail if that particular defect A is not present.
	www.reed-electronics.com /SEMICONDUCTOR/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA180093 (3359 words)

	Daily Pundit Archives
		To the best of my knowledge, hit to kill systems are not likely to work, which is why the original US system (30 years ago) and the current Russian system use nuclear warheads.
		One idea is throw a basically a bunch of KE kill devices at a certain area of space (think of pebbles going around 22,000 km/hr and hitting something).
		I am sure there are lots of tricks, but we are talking a system which needs a high probability of kill, which implies that either we know all the countermeasures or we have something more effective to take out the real warheads with.
	www.dailypundit.com /archives/012680.php (1099 words)

	NTI: Global Security Newswire
		The report concludes, “The GMD model treats some critical parameters such as discrimination [warhead identification] and overall probability of kill too simplistically for adequate credibility,” referring to the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, pieces of which were ordered by Bush to be activated this year.
		The ultimate objective of the ballistic missile defense system’s development is to produce a high “kill probability,” which is Missile Defense Agency jargon for the estimated probability of successfully destroying an enemy warhead.
		The Missile Defense Agency this year invited reporters to participate in a computerized war game that reportedly assumed a 91-percent kill probability for the entire BMDS system as it is projected to be configured years from now (see GSN, March 17).
	www.nti.org /d_newswire/issues/2004/6/8/6fb04b68-9fc0-4465-89b3-fa35ff458bde.html (1404 words)

	International Wolf Center Beyond 2000 Symposium
		Estimation of kill rates by predators has been a centerpiece of most predator/prey studies, allowing for assessment of carnivore well being and impacts on prey populations.
		Typically kills are located by aerial search or, rarely, ground search, but not both, and it is assumed that all kills are found.
		Use of two assessment systems allows for application of the double-counts procedure, which yields estimates of the probability of kill recovery for both aerial and ground crews.
	www.wolf.org /wolves/learn/scientific/symposium/abstracts/025.asp (253 words)

	COMBATSIM.COM: Falcon 4 Interview
		A missile launched nose on will have a lower probability of kill.
		If the target aircraft has afterburners lit, the probability of kill is higher.
		Of course, if the closest point is still not very near the airframe the probability of damage is reduced.
	www.combatsim.com /htm/mar99/f4-inter.htm (850 words)

	Nat' Academies Press, The Future of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Relationship (1991)
		These factors include variables such as the reliability of weapons and delivery systems, the effectiveness of defenses in preventing weapons from reaching the target area, and the probability of damage to a target given that the weapon arrives in the target area.
		The “single-shot probability of kill” (SSPK) is 1 − Ps.
		In the figures, Qs is the anticipated value of the single-shot probability of target survival, whereas Ps is the actual value.
	www.nap.edu /books/0309045827/html/59.html (1198 words)

	MDA Pursues Mini Missile Kill Vehicles
		Intended to weigh between 2 and 10 kilograms apiece, nearly two dozen kill vehicles would be launched aboard a single rocket, which would be guided into the path of incoming missiles by land, sea and space sensors.
		The development of miniature kill vehicles is being aided by technological advances such as micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), in which mechanical systems are actually embedded on chips, Payton said.
		The decision to include small kill vehicles will depend on the technology demonstrations from three companies, Payton said.
	www.space.com /spacenews/archive03/mdaarch_062403.html (674 words)

	Fingers of Death
		Algorithms (FoD) like Multi-shot Probability of Kill (MS-Pk) are not especially intended to calculate the outcome of a human player's actions.
		Well imagine the whole gunfight as a single event in which the result is a shooter either living or dying at the end (no wounding please).
		Then the probability of killing the opponent is one minus the probability of the opponent living, or
	fingersofdeath.blogspot.com /2004_01_01_fingersofdeath_archive.html (798 words)

	[No title]
		It's because the probability that you'll kill yourself in a single shot is 1/6, which is relatively high, considering.
		However, what if I were to tell you that the gun you were using had not 6 barrel slots but rather 2^200.
		The chance we'd kill ourselves in one round of that game, is the chance that x is then composite.
	www.owlnet.rice.edu /~comp200/02fall/Lecture-notes/lec28.txt (1088 words)

	Rediff On The NeT: Prithvi: The Case for 'No-First-Deployment'
		In addition, the advertised circular error probability or accuracy for the Prithvi -- 0.1 percent -- is insufficient to attain a high probability kill ratio.
		First, the missile will most probably be used over a range of 100 km to 150 km.
		But several studies of the probability kill from a 1,000 kg high explosive warhead as a function of delivery CEP for various target hardness to blast overpressure measured as pounds per square inch indicate that the Prithvi's accuracy will have to be improved substantially for it to achieve target kill.
	inhome.rediff.com /news/jul/10kamp.htm (1587 words)

	Nat' Academies Press, Aviation Fuels with Improved Fire Safety: A Proceedings (1997)
		The COVART model determines the component and system probability of kill for several kill mechanisms, such as functional failure, fire kills, blast kills, and others.
		The fire and explosion kill methodology uses the air gap method which involves tables that are a function of fragment mass, fragment velocity, air gap distance from a striker plate, and the component being hit.
		The air gap tables and numerous rules are used to predict the probability of fire.
	www.nap.edu /openbook.php?record_id=5871&page=68 (459 words)

	SIGNAL Magazine
		The Lahat is designed to achieve a 95 percent probability of kill under most conditions.
		IAI contends that the combination of increased effective engagement range and the Lahat’s increased first-round probability of kill would greatly improve a tank’s survivability in the modern battlefield.
		There is a market for the missile, but Israel would probably have to go in with a joint U.S. development program to give the Lahat a greater market potential around the world, Fetter contends.
	www.afcea.org /signal/articles/anmviewer.asp?a=940&print=yes (1855 words)

	Calculating Odds
		Get the probability of a kill for each unit firing by looking at the Parameter Data in the "Help
		Notes" menu selection, and then convert from the die roll required to well known chances of each 12-side die roll.
		Probabilities of Attaining Fire Kill Results Per Single Prussian Battalion Firing on French Square
	www.geocities.com /nwc_ecole/archive/examples/x04_calc.html (102 words)

	Helecopters
		At ranges from 0 up to about 500 meters, the RPKs in each squad in the platoon were getting a 4% probability of kill vs moving Apaches and a 6% probability of kill vs moving Cobras, the AK74s in each squad were getting a 2% chance vs Apaches and a 3% chance vs Cobras.
		Many of the helo kills in the game would actually be damage sufficient to make the pilot immediately either go home or else look for a safe place nearby to set down.
		They can land relatively unmolested, unload their troops and exit the area before the smoke disappears and OPFOR might not even know that they were there until it sees a mass of troops rushing its position.
	www.ralentz.com /old/mac/recreation/tacops/helecopters.html (2991 words)

	CC2 Charts
		The probability to make a given value from 0 to 255 is the same for every value.
		It's interesting to note that if your are not firing directly at the front turret of the Tiger, you can't reasonably kill it with a bazooka.
		Thus, if you want to kill a Tiger without a side shot, the Tiger will most likely be shooting at you.
	users.stargate.net /~mcconmy/probability.htm (1874 words)

	Star Tek-Exploiting the Final Frontier: Counterspace Operations in 2025
		Lethality - Probability of kill (for offensive systems) or probability to prevent hard kill (for defensive systems).
		For offensive systems, selectivity measures the ability to inflict hard kill, soft kill, or both.
		For defensive systems, selectivity represents the ability to protect against hard kill, soft kill, or both.
	www.fas.org /spp/military/docops/usaf/2025/v3c9/v3c9-5.htm (1144 words)

	EF2000 Intelligence Report
		The cannon and SNAKEin the EF2000 is not as sophisticated as that in the newer Russian aircraft which have a trainable gun.
		Since the probability of kill increases dramatically when more than one missile is allocated per target, it is useful for you to fire another missile at each target.
		2.1.4 A2A Weapons Deployment and PK Probability of kill (PK) is greatly affected by shooter's speed and relative altitude to the target, the target's speed, aspect, and maneuverability.
	www.combatsim.com /review.php?id=131&page=2 (5236 words)

	Nancy Kress's Probability Space
		Her father would say that fifteen percent was low probability of success.
		Although Carol was nice, too, and maybe Carol was better for her father because Marbet was a Sensitive and her father was too ornery to want somebody guessing with such high probability what he wa s thinking all the time.
		He was a famous physicist, and that was the only reason to kidnap him, so they probably wanted him alive to do physics for them.
	www.sff.net /people/nankress/books/probspace/chap1.htm (1984 words)

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