In effect, the respondents were asked to choose between 10 per cent chance of losing 75 lives and 8 per cent chance of losing 100 lives, but their preferences were the same as when the choice was between a sure loss of 75 lives and 80 per cent chance of losing 100 lives.
The certainty effect reveals attitudes toward risk that are inconsistent with the axioms of rational choice, whereas the pseudocertaintyeffect violates the more fundamental requirement that preferences should be independent of problem description.
The susceptibility to perspective effects is of special concern in the domain of decisionmaking because of the absence of objective standards such as the true height of mountains.
ORGANO MENTAL SYNDROMES - I(Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
Challenged by the rehabilitative needs of many patients returning from World War II with focal cerebral lesions, a small number of neurologists and quantitative psychologists began to study the effects of those injuries, just as psychiatrists were shifting their attention away from cerebral processes.
Age may be used as a convenient indicator for locating the patient in an evolving biological, psychological, and social matrix; a consideration of aging effects cannot await the last stages of the assessment, at which point aging is viewed solely as a factor modifying disease expression.
Their effects tend to be generalized but often include delirium, dementia, or mood disturbance.
The endowment effect and the difference between losses and costs were also discussed in class.
Because the loss curve is steeper than the gain curve, the slipping of foregone gains is, of course, less steep (and hence less painful) than is the slipping of actual losses.
The fundamental attribution error, the actor-observer asymmetry, the effects of salience, and a host of egocentric biases are all well covered by Plous.
[No title](Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
Or, the person might ask you something like "Do you think your risk of needing this insurance is higher or lower than 90%?" thus fixing the idea that you are very likely to need insurance, without actually lying to you.
However, the pseudocertainty type of idea applies because they will announce prices only for certain products, namely, the ones for which they charge less.
Another possibility is presenting a detailed picture of how you would use the item, such as when trying to sell a swimming pool or hot tub and people are pictured having fun in one.
The interesting insights of original Postmodernism became corrupted, in real life, to vehicles of oppression on the one hand and justifications for a careless disregard for even the most useful rules and limits on the other.
Because Art History is a field of study in which the underlying principles of valuation cannot be articulated there is a hunger for the pseudocertainty of theory.
Art historians, who have always been leery of any emotional involvement with art, have now learned to cope with it not only by the classic dodge of symbolic interpretation, but now, thanks to postmodernism, by using art objects as exemplars of cultural circumstance and principle, thereby making art history a kind of specialized sociology.
The pseudocertaintyeffect applies to situations where the risk is reduced to zero for only a subset of possibilities and is not affected at all for the others.
You anchor on the higher values and think they are normal, so the price of $16.99 sounds really good.
Pseudocertainty involves the idea of convincing you that your risk of certain problems will be zero, without mentioning that other problems are not covered at all.
The only thing that bothers me is the absolutist pseudocertainty that lets people escape from their own frailty and foolishness by interfering with other people's lawful pursuit of happiness, whether by stupefying them with doctrinal arcana, or denying them basic rights, or calling them names, or blowing them to smithereens.
I'm all too aware that this is just about the oldest lefty blogger rant in the book; everyone's heard it before, and I'll end it right here.
What matters is that the Bushies use the language of religion--and patriotism, too, right--to bid for a monopoly on the entire range of legitimate discourse.
[No title](Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
Decision Making a) utility theory b) framing effects c) reason-based choice d) extended experiences 2.
Losses vs. gains (reference-point effect) Disease problem: Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people.
(1982): pseudocertainty Vaccine effective 50% of time against disease afflicting 20% of population.
[No title](Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
The "pseudocertaintyeffect" refers to people's unwillingness to consider the conditional nature of many decisions and the resulting tendency to overweight supposedly "certain" outcomes in a chain of probabilistic events (even though these outcomes may never be reached).
An example to think about: Framing your weekend either as "no-work" (in which case a small amount of work will be a loss and thus very unpleasant) or as "both-work-and-play" (in which case a small amount of work will be a gain and thus relatively pleasant).
Strange Doctrines: November 10, 2003 - November 16, 2003(Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
Also, I notice how the ABA's rating now has a two-track effect on conservative nominees: (1) a positive rating is an apparently sufficient credential, and the nominee is simply to be confirmed; whereas (2) a negative rating is to be disregarded entirely...and the nominee is simply to be confirmed.
It's also conceivable that music came first and language is in effect an imitation of song -- that in everyday speech we hit the musical notes we especially like.
Alternately, it may be that music imitates the general products of the human sound-making system, which just happens to be mostly speech.
bmj.com Skolbekken 316 (7149): 1956(Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
The framing effect of relative and absolute risk.
Bucher HC, Weinbacher M, Gyr K. Influence of method of reporting study on results on decision of physicians to prescribe drugs to lower cholesterol concentration.
The number needed to treat: a clinically useful measure of treatment effect.
As I said to one of my co-workers about the break, when asked how it was, I said, "It varied between periods of great fun and moments of unspeakable horror." He thought I was kidding.
Granted, unspeakable horror is a bit much, but I was going for effect, not for accuracy.
I enjoy going home, resting a bit, seeing family and friends, and doing all that homey stuff.
use.perl.org /~zorknapp/journal/9794 (795 words)
Houston Teacher Institute(Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-14)
The introduction to personal probability terms like “The Certainty Effect,” “The PseudocertaintyEffect,” “ The Availability Heuristic,” and “Anchoring” will introduce students about some ways that we process facts or probable choices.
Allotted time will be provided for a small activity and discussion to think about the concepts presented.
find examples of the terms; “the certain effect”, “pseudocertaintyeffect”, “availability heuristic” effect or anchoring.
Amazing special effects, and an interesting plot where you never really know whether the aliens are good guys, bad guys, or somewhere in between (the reality being the latter).
The language-barrier is tacked by implanted microbes, which, while something that has to be tackled by the type of show, doesn't immediately take effect on Crichton.
From the writting to visual effects, this show has it all.
Furthermore, when we split the sample by class and age, we find the opposite effect: by age 40 and above, siblings from higher SES families tend to increase in their resemblance while those from lower SES families do not.
Descriptive accounts about the openness of American society, then, strongly depend on which group we are talking about and at which stage in the life course we measure economic status.
I think an argument exists that gathering information to (potentially) request an audit on businesses that choose not to buy Windows creates a chilling effect.
Basically MS is trying to track down companies that are claiming they have a site license (in order to get a discount per unit on new PCs they order), but in fact are just using one copy of Windows that gets "passed around".
What MS is saying (and has said all along) is that a site license only covers the PCs at the site at the time it went into effect.
