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Topic: Regression fallacy

Related Topics

Conjunction fallacy

Representativeness heuristic

Law of averages

Availability heuristic

Clustering illusion

List of cognitive biases

Cognitive bias

Anchoring and adjustment

Social judgment theory

Amos Tversky

Framing

Negotiation

	Logical fallacy - Open Encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		A logical fallacy is an error in logical argument which is independent of the truth of the premises.
		Recognizing fallacies in practical arguments may be difficult since arguments are often structured using rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between assertions.
		Fallacies are used frequently by pundits in the media and politics.
	open-encyclopedia.com /Logical_fallacy (1868 words)

	Logical fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		A logical fallacy may mean nothing more than a fallacy or it may mean an error in deductive reasoning, i.e., a formal fallacy.
		In the latter case, it is a flaw in the structure of a deductive argument as opposed to an error in the premises.
		Recognizing fallacies in everyday arguments may be difficult since arguments are often embedded in rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between statements.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Logical_fallacy (879 words)

	The Regression Effect / The Regression Fallacy
		The regression effect causes an individual's expected post-test measurement to fall somewhere between her pre-test measurement and the mean pre-test measurement.
		Another popular variant of the regression fallacy occurs when subjects are enrolled into a study on the basis of an extreme value of some measurement and a treatment is declared effective because subsequent measurements are not as extreme.
		Regression to the mean says even the controls will show an increase over the course of the study, but if the treatment is effective the increase will be greater in the treated group than in the controls.
	www.tufts.edu /%7Egdallal/regeff.htm (1605 words)

	[No title]
		Thus the rms of the vertical residuals is a measure of the typical vertical distance from the data to the regression line, that is, the typical error in estimating the value of Y by the height of the regression line.
		Recall that the regression line is a smoothed version of the graph of averages: The height of the regression line at the point x is an estimate of the average of the values of Y for individuals whose value of X is close to x.
		If the scatterplot is football shaped, the regression line follows the graph of averages reasonably well: In each vertical slice, the deviations of the values of Y from their mean is approximately the vertical residuals of those values of Y from the regression line.
	www.stat.berkeley.edu /users/stark/SticiGui/Text/ch6.htm (3506 words)

	Fallacies [Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		It is the converse of the composition fallacy.
		Guilt by association is a version of the ad hominem fallacy in which a person is said to be guilty of error because of the group he or she associates with.
		This fallacy is a kind of non sequitur in which the premises are wholly irrelevant to drawing the conclusion.
	www.utm.edu /research/iep/f/fallacies.htm (13524 words)

	The Regression Fallacy
		The Regression fallacy is the result of a statistical phenomenon known as "regression to the mean".
		"Regression" refers to the value of the variable tending to move closer to the mean, away from extreme values.
		So, "regression to the mean" refers to the tendency of a variable characteristic in a population to move away from the extreme values towards the average value.
	www.fallacyfiles.org /regressf.html (566 words)

	Intro level 2 and level 3 elaborations (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		In statistics class, you probably heard about regression towards the mean-- that observations/events which are extreme at one point in time (or on one aspect) will be less extreme at another time or on another dimension.
		With the assumption of an unbiased coin and unbiased coin flipping, regression to the mean does predict that the next 6 flips would have fewer heads than 5 or 6.
		Regression to the mean results in the number of heads (or proportion) being less extreme or closer to the theoretical mean on the next six flips, but not necessarily less than the mean.
	wetzel.psych.rhodes.edu /random/misconcept23.html (540 words)

	Gene Expression: Regression to the Mean and Galton’s Fallacy (not!)
		Another elementary error is to suppose that the regression of x on y is the inverse of the regression of y on x, so that, e.g., if fathers who are 6’ tall have sons who are on average 5’10” tall, then sons who are 5’10” tall will on average have fathers who are 6’ tall.
		Galton also arguably committed fallacy 9, because he believed that in the long term individuals regressed towards the mean of their entire ancestral population, and not to the mean of their direct ancestors.
		Galton’s belief in ’perpetual regression’ was not a simple misunderstanding of statistics, but was a consequence of his biological theory of heredity, which included a belief in ’positions of organic stability’ to which organisms tended to revert unless a new position of stability is reached by a large and sudden ‘jump’.
	www.gnxp.com /MT2/archives/002573.html (2967 words)

	regressive fallacy
		The regressive fallacy is the failure to take into account natural and inevitable fluctuations of things when ascribing causes to them (Gilovich 1993: 26).
		This tendency to move toward the average away from extremes was called "regression" by Sir Francis Galton in a study of the average heights of sons of very tall and very short parents.
		(The study was published in 1885 and was called "Regression Toward Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.") He found that sons of very tall or very short parents tend to be tall or short, respectively, but not as tall or as short as their parents.
	skepdic.com /regressive.html (774 words)

	Regression fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		The regression fallacy, also known as the regressive fallacy is a logical fallacy where regression towards the mean is seen not as a natural fluctuation but as being brought about by a specific cause.
		Exceptional performances are usually followed by less-than-exceptional performances, and this is known in statistics as regression toward the mean.
		The pain subsiding a little after it has gotten worse was more easily explained by regression towards the mean, therefore assuming it was caused by the witchdoctor is fallacious.
	www.sciencedaily.com /encyclopedia/regression_fallacy (413 words)

	Logical fallacy at opensource encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		A logical fallacy is an error in logical argument or reasoning which is independent of the truth of the premises.
		However, the interlocutor may be believe some acts of killing are not wrong, for instance those carried out in self defense or in legitimate warfare; from the point of view the interlocutor James commits the logical fallacy of begging the question.
		Some fallacies are used frequently by pundits in the media and politics.
	wiki.tatet.com /Fallacy.html (1428 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Write down the regression equation of the GPA on the number of hours students studied per week.
		RMS error for this regression = square root of (1 — 0.6^2)*0.5 = 0.4 GPA points Plug 12 into your equation in d) to get 2.7 This is the type of problem where you are not looking at the whole scatter plot any more but only at the part of it.
		Regression fallacy is to forget that with regression your predictions are essentially only averages for groups of people.
	students.washington.edu /kmaria/finalsols03.doc (1220 words)

	Concerns about Hypnotic Regression
		A marked emotional experience during the hypnotic regression provides no assurance that memories of a real previous life were recovered.
		It is worth emphasizing that very young children who remember verified previous lives often have phobias, such as of water, even though they remember the event that seems to have generated the phobia, such as a death from drowning.
		The procedure of hypnotic regression to "previous lives" is not without some hazards.
	www.healthsystem.virginia.edu /internet/personalitystudies/regression.cfm (998 words)

	BJA Center for Program Evaluation - Glossary
		An asymmetric measure of association; a statistic computed as part of a regression analysis.
		In this research design, subjects are placed into treatment and control groups based on a score obtained on some variable.
		The tendency of subjects, who are initially selected due to extreme scores, to have subsequent scores move inward toward the mean.
	www.ojp.usdoj.gov /BJA/evaluation/glossary/glossary_r.htm (855 words)

	LIS 504 - Fallacies (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		The exception fallacy is an error in induction; it involves making a conclusion about a group on the basis of exceptional cases.
		If a researcher selects items with extreme scores at one point in time and then looks at the scores of the same, or related, items at another point in time, we can expect that the second set of scores will average closer to the mean value for the population as a whole.
		Failing to recognize this natural regression toward the mean constitutes the regression fallacy.
	instruct.uwo.ca /fim-lis/504/504fal.htm (453 words)

	[No title]
		.ig regression fallacy and intelligence and heredity and Rookie of Year and good restaurants The fallacy of "regression to the mean" -- "regression fallacy" for short -- is an interesting special case.
		Many children are awesomely willing to sally forth on the basis of their own reasonings, and to be so sure of their reasoning that they have only contempt for the advice of adults whose experience contradicts those reasonings.
		The flip side of this fallacy is the attempt to prove that something did not happen because the person had no motive to do it.
	www.juliansimon.com /writings/Thinking_Well/Part_IV/ERROR46-.txt (6366 words)

	Fallacy - EvoWiki (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Many arguments even contain several fallacies in a row, so that even if you overlook one of them, the rest is still invalid.
		As for the types of fallacies, creationists use the same types as other pseudoscientists do.
		Some of them have an agenda, listing the fallacies as "fallacies used against..." but even there the fallacies listed are mostly real fallacies.
	www.evowiki.org /index.php/Fallacy (671 words)

	1
		The fallacy of the hasty conclusion occurs when one accepts an argument on the basis of relevant but insufficient information.
		Many answers for this question explained how regression works, but did not explain the regression fallacy.
		He writes: “The regression fallacy refers to the tendency to fail to recognize statistical regression when it occurs, and instead to ‘explain’ the observed phenomena with superfluous and often complicated causal theories (emphasis added)”.
	www.personal.kent.edu /~rlennox/P11009T/Exam1b_Answers.html (1476 words)

	CEPR Discussion Paper Abstracts (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence.
		These tests turn out to be plagued by Francis Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean.
		Using a dynamic version of Galton's fallacy, I establish that coefficients of arbitrary signs in such regressions are consistent with an unchanging cross-section distribution of incomes.
	www.cepr.org /pubs/dps/DP820.asp (202 words)

	onegoodmove: The Regression Fallacy (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		If you don't understand the idea of regression to the mean you are much more likely to make thinking errors that will cause you great difficulties.
		He realized he was staring into the face of a profound misperception: The flight instructor believed that his own praise or criticism caused the trainee's performance to reverse.
		But regardless of any impact that may have the regression to the mean will still take place.
	onegoodmove.org /1gm/1gmarchive/000593.html (658 words)

	[No title] (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Regression Estimate Each change of 1SDx in x variable results in rSDy change in y variable.
		Predict Y from X Slope of regression line is rSDy Sdx Ave height at 4 years was 41" (X) SD 1.5" Ave height at 18 was 70" (Y) SD 2.5" R =.80
		Regression Fallacy deals with groups and says "on average, one who scores high the first time will score lower the second time.)
	www.users.interport.net /m/r/mrspice/stats.htm (649 words)

	Regression Effect and Regression Fallacy
		Because if we consider that the subjects IQ is Normally distributed with 100 as its average and 15 as its standard deviation an IQ of 135 will be more likely than an IQ of 145.
		The REGRESSION FALLACY consists in thinking that the regression effect must be due to something important, not just the spread around the line.
		"On test retest situations the reason the retest scores tend to regress towards the mean is due to chance error.
	www-stat.stanford.edu /~susan/courses/s60/split/node59.html (286 words)

	[No title]
		We'll predict his IQ by regression: her IQ is 150, which is 50 points above average.
		It is caused by the same thing that makes the slope of the regression line smaller in magnitude than the slope of the SD line: for a football-shaped scatterplot with positive r, in a vertical slice containing above-average values of X, most of the Y coordinates will be below the SD line.
		Answer: After a particularly bad landing, one would expect the next to be closer to average, whether or not the student is reprimanded.
	www.stat.duke.edu /courses/Spring02/sta242/lecture/regeffect.html (753 words)

	Regression (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Regression = the purpose of the experiment is estimation or prediction (i.e., to describe a functional relationship between X and Y variables).
		The variables do not have the same status.
		The regression line is a smoothed version of the graph of averages.
	www-stat.stanford.edu /~susan/courses/s60/split/node58.html (53 words)

	Fallacy Files Weblog Archive: August, 2002
		Not only have logicians known of this type of error in reasoning, but they have also known that it is by no means restricted to schizophrenics.
		The problem with such media feeding frenzies is the so-called "Volvo" fallacy, which leads people to overestimate the likelihood of kidnapping.
		Not only are people unnecessarily frightened—including the children that they seek to protect—but parents are distracted from more significant risks to their kids' safety.
	www.fallacyfiles.org /archive082002.html (402 words)

	Amazon.ca: Books: The Job-Generation Controversy: The Economic Myth of Small Business (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		It cleverly applies the regression fallacy by counting its winners and ignoring its losers.
		According to Milton Friedman (Journal of Economic Literature, Dec. 1992), and a host of academics, this is fallacious.
		Also, most college text books warn against the regression fallacy, but SBA's Office of Advocacy deliberately misleads the public by claiming the crossovers are small which they are on net, but it then misuses the gross flow statistics to complete the small business job creation hoax.
	www.amazon.ca /exec/obidos/ASIN/0765604906 (607 words)

	[No title]
		Topics: Regression effect, ANOVA table for regression, Lack of Fit test, simultaneous inference
		Check this out: an applet demonstrating how certain (X,Y) pairs may influence the regression line.
		Paper using polynomial and simple linear regression, "Climate change in non-traditional datasets".
	www.stat.duke.edu /courses/Spring02/sta242/daily.html (280 words)

	[No title]
		I-S>I-ó ¨Testing for Regression Fallacy¨ëDivide the group showing regression into two groups: (1) manipulation, (2) control without manipulation.
		Underachievers could show improvement due to regression upward to mean.
		Always include a control group for regression to the mean.¡&±;±;êî
	www.csupomona.edu /~nalvarado/BHS307PPTs/SOct27.ppt (190 words)

	RePEc
		Contact us to see your text ad here for a month.
		Keywords: Convergence; Cross-country growth; Galton's Fallacy; Regression Towards the Mean; Stochastic Kernel; Transition Matrix
		Abstract: Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence.
	www.inomics.com /cgi/repec?handle=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:820 (144 words)

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