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| | The "Risk Free" Rate |
 | | It is a commonplace that during times of turmoil, interest rates rise; economic historian Richard Sylla has said that a plot of rates over time is a sort of national "fever chart." This is true, in fact, of all rates of return-the "risk-free" rate, the interest rates of less-secure investments and, of course, equity returns. |
 | | In recent years, in the developed nations, short-term rates have almost always been lower than long-term rates, since investors need to be rewarded for the higher interest-rate risk of bonds, due to the risk of serious damage from inflation. |
 | | Most recently, this relationship of return vs. perceived risk was validated by Campbell Harvey and his colleagues at Duke, who found that stock market returns correlate quite nicely with the degree of perceived economic risk. |
| www.indexfunds.com /articles/20011108_Riskfree_adv_md_WB.htm (2008 words) |
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