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Topic: Scenario analysis

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	Scenario analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (scenarios).
		The difficulty of such forecasting is highlighted in that case by the fact that it is arguable the Pentagon failed to foresee the lawlessness and insecurity of the post-war situation and the level of hostility shown towards the occupying forces.
		For example, analysis of the probability of the earth being struck by a large celestial object (a meteor) suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Scenario_analysis (492 words)

	Scenario planning - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.
		Scenario planning can include elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretations of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or inventions.
		The scenarios are intended to offer a more dynamic view of possible futures and focus attention on the underlying interactions that may have particular policy significance.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Scenario_planning (1773 words)

	SARBC - Computer Program - Scenario Analyzer
		Scenario analysis, as I shall describe one solution to this dilemma, is inspired by procedures used by the U.S. Coast Guard in searching for missing vessels at sea (see Stone, l983, for an excellent discussion).
		In the "failed navigation" scenario, analysis of wind and currents may be of little use, but rather the scenario requires consideration of the captain's navigation skills and experience, as well as the nature of available cues (much like the land search for the lost person).
		Scenario analysis involves having the Plans Chief present a number of explicit scenarios to those individuals who will be assigning POA's to the segments and asking them to estimate the probability of each scenario (expressed as decimal percentage points).
	www.sarbc.org /scene.html (3433 words)

	CDC - Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
		In the scenario with influenza vaccination of risk groups, this assumption leads to a decrease in the percentage of hospitalizations and deaths that might be avoided, 21% (base case 61%) and 47% (base case 56%), respectively.
		Scenario analysis of the expected number of hospitalizations and deaths due to pandemic influenza in the Netherlands.
		Cost-effectiveness analysis of pneumococcal vaccination for elderly individuals in the Netherlands.
	www.cdc.gov /ncidod/EID/vol9no5/02-0321.htm (4469 words)

	Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture
		Analysis of a proposed software system to determine the extent to which it meets desired quality criteria is beneficial yet difficult.
		Scenarios are brief narratives of expected or anticipated use of a system from both development and end-user viewpoints.
		Scenarios have been widely used and documented in object-oriented design and user interface design as a technique to elicit and validate requirements, particularly for the operator of the system ([6], [9]).
	www.sei.cmu.edu /architecture/scenario_paper (2402 words)

	Scenario planning -- Facts, Info, and Encyclopedia article (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Scenario planning is a (Click link for more info and facts about strategic planning) strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.
		It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by (Information about the armed forces of another country that is useful in planning and conducting military policy or military operations) military intelligence.
		Scenario planning differs from contingency planning, (Click link for more info and facts about sensitivity analysis) sensitivity analysis and ((computer science) the technique of representing the real world by a computer program) computer simulations.
	www.absoluteastronomy.com /encyclopedia/s/sc/scenario_planning.htm (1577 words)

	Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture
		Once the scenarios are created, we need to classify them as direct (those that can be satisfied by executing the system being developed) or indirect (those which require a change to some of the components or connections within the architecture).
		Once the scenarios are determined and mapped onto the structural description, and all scenario interactions are determined, the implications of the scenarios are made manifest.
		As the direct scenario is described in detail, the flow diagram is filled in to document the kinds of relationships between components that the scenario expects.
	www.sei.cmu.edu /activities/architecture/scenario_paper/ieee-sw2.htm (4641 words)

	DBPD June 1998 Data Architect
		Similarly, the scenario helps business rule analysts communicate their understanding of business problems back to the SMEs; if a discrepancy exists, the scenario can be enriched or altered until both parties agree that it clearly illustrates the business problem under analysis.
		Scenarios can be used to support life cycle analysis by depicting a specific asset or relationship as it evolves.
		Scenarios can be extremely effective when used to analyze how the organization wishes to manage and expand the customer relationship.
	www.dbpd.com /vault/9806arc.htm (1987 words)

	PPM&E Resource Portal - Scenario Analysis (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		For example, scenario analysis was used at the highest levels in South Africa in helping people comes to terms with what the post-apartheid future could be.
		Scenario analysis can be a useful tool in helping people to think laterally and to question assumptions and possibly unfounded beliefs about the future.
		Scenarios are therefore an interpretation of the present as well as an archetypal image of the future.
	www.iac.wur.nl /ppme/content.php?ID=353&IDsub=452 (366 words)

	Western Uniformity Scenario Analysis
		Scenario impacts are assessed using the same general methods used to analyze impacts of illustrative scenarios in the CTSandW Study, although substantial improvements in data and certain analytical methods have been made since that study.
		Incremental pavement costs attributable to the scenario were estimated by calculating the difference between total pavement improvement costs over a 20-year period in the scenario States under current size and weight limits and total pavement costs assuming the estimated VMT and weight distributions under the scenario size and weight limits.
		The 25 percent reduction in truck VMT associated with the scenario is estimated to result in a 12 percent reduction in fuel consumption.
	www.fhwa.dot.gov /policy/otps/truck/wusr/exec.htm (4419 words)

	Eurosurveillance Weekly 2004;8 (19): 040506
		Because the outcome of an estimate depends on assumptions concerning the virus, a form of a scenario analysis must be constructed, in which the calculation is repeated for a range of several, but plausible combinations of assumptions.
		In scenario 2 and 4 the same number of vaccine doses are used to vaccinate a part (49%) of the 5-20 age group who do not belong to the risk groups.
		Scenario analyses can be an important tool in estimating the sometimes counterintuitive impact of intervention measures against influenza and thus can help in drafting prevention policies for future pandemics.
	www.eurosurveillance.org /ew/2004/040506.asp (3874 words)

	Scenario Analysis
		Scenario analysis should accommodate a multitude of factors—conceptual (verbal), relational (models) and numerical (data)— that can be inter-related in a coherent manner.
		Lack of one or the other renders a scenario analysis incomplete.
		Unless the alternative futures presented are documented as feasible (not forecasted and perhaps not necessarily even highly probable) and solidly taken into account based on scientific knowledge they will lack the required credibility.
	genie.cwru.edu /scenarioanalysis.htm (203 words)

	Carbon Scenario Analysis for Land Management Change
		The scenario analysis framework as represented by the ASSESS interface may be used in workshops with policy clients and as part of hands-on practical experience in the CRC’s short course education program.
		Modelling work is proposed to focus on application of the Century model to scenario analysis for agricultural management effects on soil carbon, and development of the linkages forest model for incorporation of stand age, litter dynamics and forest management into scenario analysis.
		Analysis of risks and benefits from management change to improve C sequestration in grazing and cropping lands.
	svc237.bne113v.server-web.com /text/crc/research/scienceapps_d2.htm (446 words)

	Land use as a mitigation strategy for the
		In the wet scenario, the total nitrogen was 14.86 mg; in the base case scenario, the total nitrogen was 10.89 mg; in the dry scenario, the total nitrogen was 6.60 mg.
		In the wet scenario, the total nitrogen was 0.14 mg; in the base case scenario, the total nitrogen was 0.06 mg; in the dry scenario, the total nitrogen was 0.02 mg.
		In the wet scenario, the total nitrogen was 174.05 mg; in the base case scenario, the total nitrogen was 126.57 mg; in the dry scenario, the total nitrogen was 75.84 mg.
	dusk.geo.orst.edu /ucgis/web/oregon/papers/liu.htm (7399 words)

	Scenario analysis as a strategic management tool (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Generally, a scenario depicts some feasible future state of an organisations environment and mostly includes the dynamic sequence of interacting events, conditions and changes that is necessary to reach that state.
		The more traditional functions (in first generation scenarios) are tool for evaluation and selection of strategies, integration of various kinds of data, and exploration and identification of future possibilities.
		The more recent ones (in second generation scenarios) are making managers aware of environmental uncertainties, stretching of managers mental models, and triggering and accelerating processes of organisational learning.
	ideas.uqam.ca /ideas/data/Papers/dgrrugsom98B05.html (364 words)

	Scenario Analysis Modeling for the Army (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		First, a statistical process is used to develop coefficients of capabilities for each system; second, scenario analysis modeling is conducted to optimize the mixes of combat systems under uncertainty and third, decision support is applied for presentation of results.
		Scenario analysis, a recent technique for modeling and optimizing decisions under uncertainty, employs linear programming to model multilevel nonlinear stochastic events.
		Scenario analysis has had significant applications in military force planning under uncertainty.
	www.informs.org /Conf/SD97/TALKS/WB30.html (264 words)

	Scenario Planning Analysis in Projects and IT Management
		Introduction: "Scenario planning" is a forward-thinking analytical process, whereby "predictable" circumstances and related consequences are considered and analyzed in order to plan for the future.
		Scenario planning is used to stay ahead of the curve, as events and responses are anticipated and managed in order to maximize positive opportunities and minimize negative results.
		In the IT environment, "scenario analysis" can be used to meet multiple management needs, including project, disaster recovery, and technology planning.
	www.ittoolkit.com /assessments/assess_scenario.htm (194 words)

	Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture
		Scenarios are important tools for exercising an architecture in order to gain information about a system's fitness with respect to a set of desired quality attributes.
		This paper presents an experiential case study illustrating the methodological use of scenarios to gain architecture-level understanding and predictive insight into large, real-world systems in various domains.
		A structured method for scenario-based architectural analysis is presented, using scenarios to analyze architectures with respect to achieving quality attributes.
	www.sei.cmu.edu /publications/articles/scenario-based-analysis.html (145 words)

	World Bank Group \| Poverty & Social Impact Analysis \| Scenario Analysis
		Scenario Analysis helps policymakers understand the uncertainties arising out of changes in strategic external conditions.
		Each analysis considers the social, economic, political or technological outcomes that drive change in the country in order to highlight unexpected risks.
		Like most risk assessments, scenario analysis works best when a mixed team of decision-makers and stakeholder representatives conducts it.
	lnweb18.worldbank.org /ESSD/sdvext.nsf/81ByDocName/ToolsandMethodsAssessingRisksScenarioAnalysis (140 words)

	Scenario Analysis Tool - Printer-friendly version of One-minuteSpotlight
		The Scenario Analysis tool runs a simulation and then sorts and matches all the resulting values of a target forecast with their corresponding assumption values.
		If you were interested in the 95th percentile scenario result, you would select that row, as shown above, and then click on Paste Selected Scenario.
		The 95th percentile scenario is now entered into the model.
	www.decisioneering.com /spotlight/printer_friendly/spotlight12_print.html (480 words)

	scenario analysis
		During this session, an hp consultant helps the customers understand their e-business environment, to write several scenarios for the future and to build a business case for each individual scenario.
		The prime targets are organizations that are likely to experience one or several non-forecasted step-changes in their e-business practice.
		For each scenario, business consequences are described and potential proactions are prepared.
	www.hp.com /inventcenter/ourservices/scenario.htm (156 words)

	Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events.
		In this paper, we commence development of such a theory by defining a scenario in an argumentation context, and by considering the question of when two scenarios are the same.
		The postscript version is of the text accepted by the journal, though the paper is not in the journal format.
	www.sci.brooklyn.cuny.edu /~parsons/publications/journals/ngc.html (79 words)

	68.28 Alternative release scenario analysis.
		The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least one alternative release scenario for each regulated toxic substance held in a covered process(es) and at least one alternative release scenario to represent all flammable substances held in covered processes.
		The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling techniques, provided the techniques account for the specified modeling conditions and are recognized by industry as applicable as part of current practices.
		Proprietary models that account for the modeling conditions may be used provided the owner or operator allows the implementing agency access to the model and describes model features and differences from publicly available models to local emergency planners upon request.
	www.setonresourcecenter.com /cfr/40CFR/P68_013.HTM (352 words)

	Scenario Analysis of Demands in a Technology Market Using Leading Indicators - Meixell, Wu (ResearchIndex)
		After analyzing a large amount of semiconductor data, we found that not only can products be clustered by life-cycle patterns, but in each cluster there exists leading indicator products that provide advanced indication of changes in demand trends.
		Motivated by this finding we propose a scenario analysis structure in the...
		Scenario analysis of demands in a technology market using leading indicators.
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /meixell98scenario.html (658 words)

	Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture
		Scenarios have been widely used and documented in object-oriented design and user interface design as a technique to elicit and validate requirements, particularly for the operator of the system ([6],
		The analysis process focuses attention on potential trouble areas.
		Scenario 2 can be satisfied by executing calculator B, and is thus direct, while scenario 1 requires modifying B's implementation, and is thus indirect.
	www.sei.cmu.edu /architecture/scenario_paper/ieee-sw3.htm (2403 words)

	The New Lean, Mean—and Skeptical—Enterprise Customer: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Enterprise IT Investment ...
		Summit's new Scenario Planning Service provides the tools and tactics to assist management teams in quickly sorting through opinions, rumors and data to making actionable decisions and create a longer-term monitoring and planning system.
		Each scenario looks across 10 separate spectrums of uncertainty to suggest a set of divergent future conditions.
		In the report, we examine points of commonality and unique advantage across the scenarios, concluding that broad commoditization of many IT product and services segments is all but inevitable.
	www.summitstrat.com /store/scn01detail (684 words)

	Western Uniformity Scenario Analysis Chapter 2 - Scenario Description
		Thus it must be remembered that, like the scenarios analyzed in the CTSandW Study, this scenario is only illustrative of the impacts that could occur if all the States in the region uniformly adopted the size and weight limits assumed in the scenario.
		Several networks are considered in the analysis -- the National Network (NN) for large trucks designated pursuant to the STAA of 1982; networks on which the three general types of LCVs (RMD, TPD, and Triples) currently are allowed to operate; and the networks assumed in the scenario to be available for each type of LCV.
		Under the scenario, routes currently available for LCVs in particular States are assumed to remain available to those vehicles, even if they are beyond the networks assumed in the scenario to be available to particular configurations.
	www.fhwa.dot.gov /policy/otps/truck/wusr/chap02.htm (4312 words)

	Newby Sample Scenario Analysis
		This is an analysis of the process and outcome.
		General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, Ford and other auto makers spend billions of dollars every year trying to convince people to purchase automobiles (about $4.5 billion, according to Advertising Age As numbers 1, 2 and 3 in Fortune Magazine's Global 500, with combined revenues of half a trillion dollars, they can afford it.
		The communication skills and analysis of communication roles from INLS 180 readings seemed to fit our experiences very well.
	petascale.org /inls180/newby-scenario.html (1173 words)

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