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Topic: Scenario planning

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	Scenario planning
		Once the goals of scenario planning are understood, we move on to the mechanisms by which scenarios are to be generated.
		Scenario planning is a tool that helps with both of these, but it cannot operate in isolation from all of the other processes that occur when organisations make choices.
		Scenario planning is extremely helpful in isolated domains, such as research management and where units are asked to undertake step-out innovation.
	www.chforum.org /methods/scenario_methods.html (5733 words)

	Scenario planning - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.
		Scenario planning can include elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretations of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or inventions.
		While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, scenario planning is less formalized, and can be used to make plans for qualitative patterns that show up in a wide variety of simulated events.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Scenario_planning (1939 words)

	NationMaster.com - Encyclopedia: Scenario planning
		Scenario planning is a useful tool for organizations that need to plan for the future but are uncertain of what the future will bring.
		Scenario planning extends an organization's capacity for strategy development beyond the effective range of traditional strategic planning by building on multiple versions of the future rather than a single prediction.
		Scenario planning is not forecasting--picking a single scenario either because of preference or fatalism and planning accordingly.
	www.nationmaster.com /encyclopedia/Scenario-planning (2557 words)

	Scenario Planning
		Scenario planning is a tool specifically designed to deal with major, uncertain shifts in the firm's environment.
		Scenario planning was transformed into a business tool in the late 1960's and early 1970's, most notably by Pierre Wack who developed the scenario planning system used by Royal Dutch/Shell.
		To overcome this reluctance to broaden their thinking, it is useful to create "phantom" scenarios that show the adverse results if the firm were to base its decisions on the mainstream view while the reality turned out to be one of the other scenarios.
	www.netmba.com /strategy/scenario (1034 words)

	Scenario Planning - Acorn Consulting
		Scenario Planning is more of an intuitive than a purely analytical tool and I’ve found that it is extremely well suited to tapping into the wisdom and experience of your team.
		Scenario Planning may or may not be the right tool for you.
		Once we’ve defined the goals and determined that Scenario Planning is the right approach, I start by working with you to identify the external forces that have the biggest impact on your business, are outside your control, and are inherently unpredictable.
	www.acorn-od.com /scenario.html (487 words)

	Scenario planning basics for distributors
		Scenario planning allows us to consider a range of “alternative futures,” each of which is dramatically different from the other and from the current operating environment.
		Scenario planning, like all forms of business planning, requires a substantial expenditure of time and energy from the executives and employees of your company.
		Scenario planning is not well suited to “survival planning.” If your company faces the near-term threat of financial insolvency, then you should postpone the identification of long-term threats and opportunities until the business is stabilized.
	www.mdm.com /stories/fein3206.html (1937 words)

	Scenario Planning
		Scenario planning is a model for learning about the future in which a corporate strategy is formed by drawing a small number of scenarios, stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation.
		Scenarios help us link the uncertainties we hold about the future to the decisions we must make today.
		The scenario planning method works by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future.
	www.valuebasedmanagement.net /methods_scenario_planning.html (410 words)

	Scenario planning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool used when there is a significant amount of uncertainty about the future and the organization suffers from an inability togenerate good strategic thinking.
		While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, scenarioplanning is less formalized, and can be used to find patterns between a huge number of possible simulation outputs.
		Overall, scenario planning is useful when many elements should be included in the analysis, and is an effective way tocommunicate a common starting point for creative thinking.
	www.therfcc.org /scenario-planning-21620.html (281 words)

	Uncertainty and Scneario Planning article by KLM, Inc.
		Scenario planning originally referred to the systematic examination of the various ways or “scenarios” in which situations could develop.
		Scenario planning is a practice which should matter to those who desire to survive successfully in today’s increasingly discontinuous world.
		The strength scenario planning imparts is that, in having thought about some of the shapes change and uncertainty may take, an organization gains flexibility in the face of uncertainty, and becomes resilience in its aftermath.
	www.klminc.com /strategic_thinking/uncertainty_and.html (1071 words)

	Exploring Business Growth through Scenario Planning
		Scenario analysis is a tool to support organisational learning and decision-making during times of rapid strategic change, when discontinuities in the business environment make extrapolation from available historical data misleading or meaningless.
		Through scenario analysis decision-makers are able to focus the relevant environment and to generate a spanning set of alternative futures, upon which strategic analysis and diagnosis will be developed.
		Scenario planning can be successfully implemented through the use of system dynamics simulation models, linked with spreadsheet accounting-based tools.
	www.unipa.it /%7Ebianchi/eng/scenario.htm (526 words)

	Bain & Company: Scenario Planning < Capabilities < Consulting expertise -
		Scenario planning is a valuable tool in predicting the long-term ramifications of a business' overall strategy as well as discrete factors that can play out in myriad ways.
		Quality scenario planning considers a multitude of factors, both qualitative and quantitative, from the economic to the social and political.
		Scenario planning is always viewed in the context of other analysis to assess tradeoffs and implications in a multi-faceted manner.
	www.bain.com /bainweb/Consulting_Expertise/capabilities_detail.asp?capID=50 (241 words)

	Polstrat Partners - Scenario Planning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is a technique for gaining a clear understanding of forces driving change.
		Scenario planning is a continuous process that constantly captures the understanding of the evolving market by tracking the critical factors that govern change.
		The plans become a series of options which are explored, developed and exercised through scenarios to manage the balance of business risks and rewards.
	www.polstrat.com /scenarios.htm (238 words)

	WorldChanging: Another World Is Here: But Is It Art?
		Scenario planning as practiced by the GBN School is a clear and explicit attempt at influencing our choices -- to not simply inform us of what your options are but also to influence the choices we make, through the vehicle of what is today essentially a pop-culture delivery system: business literature.
		Scenario planning is in essence working with the assumption (based on one conception of leadership), that people need to be presented with choices.
		When scenario planning is taken to its logical conclusion, when the circle is squared, we can see that it is a rather tortuous path to fictional narrative, in other words it’s a route to art.
	www.worldchanging.com /archives/001161.html (3249 words)

	Scenario planning techniques can significantly reduce risks in the innovation chain (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is a tool for helping managers to take a view into the future in a world of great uncertainty.
		Scenario planning is the process in which managers invent and then consider, in depth, several varied scenarios of equally plausible futures with the objective to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding.
		The purpose of scenario planning therefore is, to help managers to change their view of reality, to match it up more closely with reality as it is, and reality as it is going to be.
	www.juergendaum.com /news/09_08_2001.htm (4423 words)

	Scenario Planning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool used when there is a significant amount of uncertainty about the future and the organization suffers from an inability to generate good strategic thinking.
		While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, scenario planning is less formalized, and can be used to find patterns between a huge number of possible simulation outputs.
		Overall, scenario planning is useful when many elements should be included in the analysis, and is an effective way to communicate a common starting point for creative thinking.
	www.wikiverse.org /scenario-planning (393 words)

	ALPSP - Training - Scenario Planning: a workshop for not-for-profit publishers (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is used by organisations to make decisions when the future is uncertain and projecting from the past offers no help.
		The heart of scenario planning is the development of stories about possible futures and identifying the changes that they imply.
		ALPSP is organising its second intensive scenarios workshop, facilitated by consultant Hugh Look; scenario planning techniques will be employed to consider what publishers might do in the worst-case scenario ('Plan B') and what implications this might have for their current and medium-term planning.
	www.alpsp.org /training/tSP200904.htm (635 words)

	Free Pint Newsletter 135 - Scenario Planning & Radio Resources
		Scenario planning is one tool that aims to do this, through the creation of stories about possible futures that can be used to guide strategies today.
		Scenario planning allows decision makers to anticipate potential futures and prepare action plans today that will safeguard their organisations, tomorrow, whatever actually does take place.
		A history of scenario planning at Shell was reported in the International Journal of Futures Studies from 1996 .
	www.freepint.com /issues/170403.htm (5546 words)

	Scenario planning
		Scenario planning was invented in the 1960s by Shell.
		There are many complex ways of doing scenario planning, but a simple process is based on creating alternative visions of the future and then developing a long term marketing plan for 2-3 scenarios, using “robust strategies”.
		Scenario planning is most safely viewed as less trying to foresee alternative futures, and more challenging the validity of the current strategy from different perspectives.
	www.mudvalley.co.uk /collateral/content/73.htm (481 words)

	Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow
		The key to effective change is scenario planning -- a process that draws on groups of people, both lay and expert, to draft narratives that spell out possible futures -- some to avoid, some inspiring hope.
		Scenario planning has been effectively utilized to aid both public and private planning exercises, leading to more diverse product lines in such areas as the automobile industry and to timely public planning projects.
		Scenario planning, it is argued, allows us to integrate the technical expertise of the specialists and the values of ordinary citizens to create futures that reflect the shared hopes of communities.
	www.eh.net /bookreviews/library/0530.shtml (984 words)

	Scenario Planning: Powerful Tool or Paper Chase? (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario Planning, at the local, national and global level is here to stay, so you may as well learn how to master it.
		is the former head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell in London, and director of the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International.
		Scenario thinking is a key component of any strategic planning process.
	www.affinitymc.com /Scenario-Planning.html (670 words)

	Consulting \| Scenario Planning - A Leader in Scenario Planning (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is the best tool for making strategic decisions in an environment of uncertainty.
		Scenario planning is the best approach for exploring the future and developing strategies for thriving in new environments.
		Scenarios can help you identify surprises and discontinuities in every area of your business, from customer demand and adoption of new technologies to changing market and regulatory environments.
	www.sric-bi.com /consulting/ScenarioPlan.shtml (818 words)

	Scenario Planning - Strategy - Management Portal
		This article is a brief note on scenario planning and a simple twist that helps to improve the return on investment – keep the story separate from the strategy.
		The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy.
		Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger.
	www.themanager.org /Knowledgebase/Strategy/ScenarioPlanning.htm (599 words)

	CBS : Scenario Planning & Research Unit (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		Scenario planning is a structured process for setting a framework in which to build a strategy for an uncertain future.
		Scenarios, based on analysis and projections of the driving forces of the present, are developed to provide carefully crafted narratives of futures in which the organisation may find itself.
		The Scenario Planning and Research Unit (SPARU) was created to provide business, non-profit and government organisations with an independent resource for examining social, economic and political trends in Australia and other countries of the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, primarily in the context of strategic planning and risk assessment.
	www.gsb.curtin.edu.au /sparu (402 words)

	scenario planning
		Whether they are planning their day, or writing a budget, or putting together a project, they must look at their present resources, estimate their future needs, and assemble the proposed actions, deployments and expectations that will enable the planned future to happen.
		Shell therefore became one of the first major corporations to adopt 'scenario planning', in which managers are presented with a set of possible outcomes.
		Whichever way you turn, the answer is the same; planning, which used to be reserved to staff specialists, is now plainly a requirement for all line managers.
	www.thinkingmanagers.com /management/scenario-planning.php (1955 words)

	Plausible Futures Newsletter
		Scenario methodology is a powerful tool for thinking through the implications of strategic choices.
		"Plotting Your Scenarios" by GBN cofounders Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy is an invaluable introduction to the art and process of scenario planning, originally published in Learning From the Future (Liam Fahey and Robert Randall, eds, Wiley, 1998).
		One of the key characteristics that distinguishes long-term defence planning from shorter-term planning is the degree to which uncertainty pervades the process.
	www.plausiblefutures.com /index.php?cat=6691a (1170 words)

	Research: Strategic Planning: Scenario Planning: A key to better understanding strategic risks
		Scenario planning arose as a method of mitigating the risks associated with committing resources to a single strategy.
		While this is true, it is still incumbent for the Board to understand the key assumptions from which their strategic plan is developed, the risks associated with those assumptions and the development of plans to address those risks.
		Scenario planning is of real value when any significant change to one or more of the assumptions underlying your strategic plan could have a materially detrimental impact upon your organization.
	charityvillage.com /cv/research/rstrat26.html (641 words)

	GBN - About Scenarios
		Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty.
		Consequently, creating scenarios requires decision-makers to question their broadest assumptions about the way the world works so they can foresee decisions that might be missed or denied.
		Good scenarios are plausible and surprising; they have the power to break old stereotypes, and their creators assume ownership and put them to work.
	www.gbn.com /AboutScenariosDisplayServlet.srv (335 words)

	Scenario Planning for Your Small Business’s Future
		Scenario planning involves looking at a number of vectors and asking, “What will the future look like for this vector?” in order to paint a picture of the future.
		You have to allocate time on an annual basis to plan for the future, and you have to allocate a few hours each month to talk about what is happening in the marketplace.
		It’s a real leap of faith for some small business owners to engage in scenario planning, but you have to be ready for change on a consistent basis.
	www.score.org /bp_5.html (376 words)

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