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Topic: Seasonal traders

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In the News (Wed 30 Dec 09)

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	TheStreet.com: Traders Use Jobs Report to Run Bonds Higher
		EST release, simply because the major components were warped with seasonal adjustments and weather-related factors.
		Nonfarm payrolls grew only 46,000 in March, but seasonal adjustment factors that improved the past three reports affected this release.
		February's gain, exaggerated to the upside, was revised to 297,000 from 275,000.
	www.thestreet.com /markets/keynumbers/731066.html (780 words)

	Seasonal spread trading - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Seasonal spread traders are spread traders that take advantage of seasonal patterns by holding long and short positions in futures contracts simultaneously in the same or a related commodity markets.
		Traders may use a combination of fundamental analysis, technical, and historical factors in their analysis.
		Traders are concerned with whether the changes in the difference between the sides of the spread are moving in their favor or not.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Seasonal_spread_trading (222 words)

	Seasonal Index (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		A seasonal index rating is calculated for each of the average 251 trading days per year using the vast data resources that are provided with Unfair Advantage.
		Seasonal indices offer a way to combine seasonal information on commodity data with daily chart analysis to promote a better understanding of price movement.
		In other words, the seasonal wave for of, say, a ten to 20 year series can be used as an input to forecast future events or simulate past events without bias where any then-current reading does not and cannot affect earlier seasonal patterns.
	www.csidata.com /custserv/onlinehelp/OnlineManual/seasonalindex.htm (503 words)

	ALTAVEST Seasonal Commodity Futures Trading, Moore Research Center
		Nevertheless, the term "season" also refers to events that occur on a routine basis, such as Christmas, baseball, hurricane, and planting season, etc. Of course, as futures traders, we are concerned with seasons from a different context.
		In a nutshell, seasonals can be found by looking back in time, usually at least 5-years, and picking out the windows of time (the "seasons") where a market has made a move in one particular direction more often than not.
		Seasonals should not be used in a vacuum, and the analysis and data should not be considered trading advice or recommendations.
	www.altavest.com /seasonals.html (847 words)

	Seasonal Spreads
		Average or novice traders do not ordinarily attempt commodity spread trading; however, it is reliable and potentially profitable techniques when used with seasonal tendencies and patterns.
		Seasonal average and Daily continuation charts for contract-specific spreads are plotted by the computer programs to portray the difference between the two contracts.
		A trader who is simply long or short is exposed to greater potential losses from market fluctuations than the spreader whose two positions tend to offset each other.
	www.trading-systems.info /Options_Spreads/seasonal_spreads.htm (1689 words)

	Traders' Glossary A-C
		A negative value for the Calmar ratio means that the system or trader had a negative performance over the last three years.
		A charting method, originally from Japan, in which the high and low are plotted as a single line and are referred to as shadows.
		The extent to which the revenue streams of individual traders within a single enterprise tend to exhibit similar patterns over time.
	www.traders.com /Documentation/RESource_docs/Glossary/glossary.html (2848 words)

	Commodity Trader: Seasonal Commodity Futures Trading Grid (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		For example, buying winter clothing during the fall season in preparation for the arrival of winter would be a very simplistic example of a type of seasonal anticipation.
		Just as we apply simple forms of seasonal analysis within various areas of our daily lives to prepare for future outcomes, we can apply seasonal analysis and indicators to the commodity markets to prepare for potential trends within the marketplace.
		However, many traders, especially those who are relatively new to trading, will apply this multi-indicator approach only to defeat their endeavors by essentially using analytical studies that are fall into the same type of classification but don’t truly provide indicator diversification.
	www.commoditytrader.com /economics/seasonal_commodity_futures_t.php (636 words)

	North East trade upset by quake repercussions (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		According to a trader who is among the handful already doing business in Guwahati, many of the winter wear traders will remain busy this year in rebuilding their houses and homes in quake ravaged Kashmir.
		These Kashmiris and Tibetan traders are usual features in the Northeast market during the winter season, notwithstanding the shadow of militancy gun over the region.
		The traders are hardly targeted by the ultras as far as the official records with the police in the region.
	www.rediff.com /news/2005/nov/08ne.htm (362 words)

	SEASONALITY AND SEASONAL TRADING FOR UNDER $100
		Seasonals thus become one of the most important inputs for the trader.
		They provide seasonality, seasonal tops and seasonal bottoms, seasonal peaks and seasonal troughs, and better help interpret the lunar year and lunar cycle (and even the solar cycle) and identify the seasonal tendency which is the key to making profits from seasonal trading.
		UP seasonals are shown in the box ABOVE the long term seasonal average in the middle of the page, DOWN seasonals in the box BELOW the long term seasonal average (if no seasonal arrows are shown, the market has experienced no 100% qualified, seasonally perfect moves).
	www.supertraderalmanac.com /almanac/seasonal_trading.htm (666 words)

	Attain Alternatives weekly e-newsletter
		Seasonal tendencies have existed for many decades and will always be part of the markets.
		Seasonal ST is the first seasonally based system to trade at Attain and this statement alone might be enough to scare away some investors.
		Because seasonal trading strategies are not bound by the same technical indicators and moving averages as mathematical systems, they can succeed in market conditions that a traditional trading system would struggle in.
	www.attaincapital.com /alternatives/alt_dec1205.htm (3503 words)

	Welcome to The PitMaster
		Purist technical traders will tell you that seasonal information is already built into the movement and formations of the charts.
		Seasonal purists don't pay any attention to the technical trends at all, they will say that if Corn rallied 12 times out of the past 15 years during that month, then why even look at a technical indicator what-so-ever.
		But finding a reliable and effective source for seasonal tendencies is much more difficult, and it is for that reason that I want to introduce you to one of my best friends in the industry, Scott Barrie who's publications are fast becoming the defacto standard for seasonal analysis.
	www.thepitmaster.com /chartbook/newsletter/buckingtrend/bucingtrend.htm (740 words)

	Jim Wyckoff on Trading Seasonality in Markets
		Seasonality in agricultural markets is a function of supply and demand factors that occur at about the same time every year.
		Seasonality in feeder cattle prices depends on the seasonality in live cattle prices, along with annual fluctuations in feeder cattle supplies.
		Seasonal price movement of FCOJ (Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice) does not usually reflect the December-February freeze period in the southern U.S. Seasonal tendencies are caused by harvest, production (also called "pack") and demand ("movement").
	www.traderslog.com /seasonality-in-markets.htm (1089 words)

	Seasonal Pattern Chart List
		These charts show two seasonal patterns: The most recent 15 years (dotted line) and up to the last 40 years (solid line), depending on how long the contract has actually traded.
		The most basic elements of a seasonal pattern are its seasonal high, seasonal low, and seasonal trends in between.
		Traders may look further for consistent behavior associated with annual events such as planting, harvest, contract expirations, etc.
	www.spectrumcommodities.com /education/commodity/charts/index.html (108 words)

	Archiwum formuł - TradeStation™ - Seasonal SB – Short by John Momsen
		For Traders' Tips this month, I have taken the seasonal soybean strategy presented by John Momsen in "Seasonal Trades And The Channel Breakout System" and recreated an accompanying indicator that displays the different levels that are defined in the strategy.
		This indicator is designed to be applied to a chart in combination with the seasonal soybean strategy, since it references the current market position when plotting the values on the chart.
		The indicator, called "seasonal SB -- short," is only active during the timeframe specified in the original seasonal soybean strategy.
	klub.chip.pl /tsfp/t-i-Seasonal_SB_Short.html (331 words)

	ODI Natural Resource Perspectives Number 30
		Purchased seasonal inputs are rarely affordable by small farmers on a "cash" basis, and have tended to be accompanied by programmes of seasonal credit.
		Traders’ incentives to develop interlocked input and output transactions are provided by the desire to increase market share in the relevant input or output markets.
		Bad experiences by the first traders to experiment with commercial sulphur supply in 1991-93 mean that only a handful of small traders are currently trying to develop mechanisms for provision of sulphur dust to farmers on a credit basis.
	www.odi.org.uk /nrp/30.html (3881 words)

	Seasonality: Systems, Strategies, and... - Jake, Bernstein,
		Traders have long been in pursuit of one, and while a handful of strategies, techniques, and methodologies have proven noteworthy, the search continues for the ultimate forecasting instrument—if one does indeed exist.
		Among its many advantages, seasonality allows the trader to formulate objective decisions founded on a logical, verifiable, and operational methodology, creating a backdrop of probable market trends in most time frames and in most markets, and providing historically valid input for use as an adjunct to other analytical methods and timing indicators.
		With his accessible, comprehensive coverage of significant concepts such as seasonal spread relationships, key dates, and cash tendencies, you’ll be able to discern seasonal patterns in monthly and daily cash and futures data.
	www.traderslibrary.com /moreinfo.asp?item=8439 (588 words)

	Traders Helping Traders Ezine and Paper trades
		Of all the fundamental information out there the seasonal tendencies of the markets are probably the most important for traders to be aware of, regardless of whether you are a technical or fundamental trader.
		Seasonally speaking, February and March are traditionally bullish months for silver as there is a reasonable amount of industrial demand to help support prices.
		Some traders, who obviously were familiar with the blood sport, eventually transferred the analogy of the bull and bear fighting into the trading arena to describe what was happening to prices.
	www.tradershelpingtraders.com /zine/2-3-03.htm (5234 words)

	Lambert-Gann Educators - Timing Market Turns 'W. D. Gann's Seasonal Time'
		The cycle of the seasons each year has an impact on not only agricultural markets (crops are harvested after the 'growing season', which creates an over supply and thus lower prices), but also in other markets (for example, heating oil prices rise in winter when heating oil is in great demand).
		Seasonal time is not the Holy Grail, however it is an important concept for students of the works of W. Gann to be familiar with.
		Traders, to be successful, must take full responsibility for their own actions.
	www.lambertganneducators.com /newsletters/article_seasonaltime.php (997 words)

	Commodity Traders Club News - Issue 58
		Seasonal trades are repetitive price patterns that occur at approximately the same time each year.
		It's not uncommon for a seasonal vendor to include 200 to 500 trades per year in his/her "seasonal package." A trader who purchases this information is overwhelmed by the number of trades.
		The wise trader will recognize this with whatever method is used for anticipating these tops and bottoms and realize that steps should be taken to at least 'confirm' the expectation before entering the trade.
	www.ctcn.com /issue58.htm (4314 words)

	New Page 3
		For example, much of the seasonal behavior of the grain market is based on the time of year when grains are planted, pollinated, and harvested.
		Using the seasonal window of 1 week before or after the entry date in conjunction with a technical formation, lends credence to both the technical formation as well as the seasonal behavior.
		Traders may wish to use closer to the money options to take advantage of seasonal moves, especially if the seasonal move in question is very short, as closer to the money tend to move more closely in conjunction with the underlying futures contract.
	www.commodityseasonals.com /commodity_trading6.htm (893 words)

	Seasonal spread trading - Definition from Investor Dictionary - Define meaning of the word Seasonal spread trading
		Seasonal spread traders are spread traders that take advantage of seasonal patterns by holding long and short contracts simultaneously in the same or a related commodity markets.
		Traders may use a combination of fundamental, technical, and historical factors in their analysis.
		Traders are concerned with whether the changes in the difference between the sides of the spread are moving in their favor or not.
	www.investordictionary.com /definition/seasonal-spread-trading.aspx (293 words)

	V. 20:12 (52-61): The Stock Market, The Calendar, And You by Jay Kaeppel
		Seasonality in the market has long been a welldocumented phenomenon.
		Seasonality offers a viable approach to investing and trading, and in this article I want to focus on this aspect.
		One advantage of employing a seasonal system is that it will leave you in cash and earning interest risk-free much of the time, rather than leaving you fully exposed in the stock market.
	store.traders.com /v2052stocmar.html (283 words)

	Commodity futures, stocks & options trading related member articles (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-18)
		In his 1994 $upertrader's Almanac, there are 580 outright seasonal trades, 207 intra-market spreads, 389 inter-market spreads and 240 exotic spreads.
		You have to be a trader for a living to follow his recommendations and you need $100K for margin and drawdowns.
		Your Editor and many other traders have unfortunately in the past deviated from that advise, which then resulted in larger losses.
	www.webtrading.com /articles/seasonal-trading-15-11.htm (1112 words)

	Stock Market Trading and Stock Investing - Tradeopolis.com
		These types of traders may be right about the general market direction most of the time, but the market usually makes very wide price swings as it goes along.
		These swings are usually big enough to wipe all but the biggest institutional traders who have very deep pockets and can afford the market swings against their position.
		The small-time trader usually can’t afford to take the kind of losses that are part of trading strictly fundamental news, and so they either lose their capital and are out of the game, or they must modify their fundamental strategy by incorporating one or more of the other trading concepts into their decision-making.
	www.tradeopolis.com /2006/11/22/selecting-the-right-trading-concept (1053 words)

	Welcome to FreshPlaza
		Seasonal or episodic labour management is a major issue worldwide over a broad range of sectors and regions.
		For example, New Zealand requires 40,000 seasonal workers at the peak of the pipfruit season and, anecdotally, it’s believed there’s a shortage of 10,000 seasonal workers in the Bay of Plenty alone.
		The company has been studying the dynamics of seasonal work for three years in association with all the key stakeholders from workers to senior Government policymakers.
	www.freshplaza.com /2006/20jul/2_nz_seasonal.htm (722 words)

	Forums - Textbooks
		In olden times, traders had spread relationships handed down to them by their fathers and their grandfathers.
		If we are looking for 18 seasonals, you can easily find a link to 50 on the Internet that have been refined and tested in real time as recently as last month.
		It is written for the already active trader, who may want to switch to or try new spreads.
	www.elitetrader.com /vb/showthread.php?threadid=18062 (1448 words)

	WSI Corporation - Weather Driven Business Solutions
		According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "After a cold start to the heating season in the eastern and southern states, which WSI forecasted, we expect the remainder of the winter to be characterized by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the West and across the northern tier of states, with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast.
		WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2) a cold November 2002 across the eastern half of the United States, and (3) a cold December 2002 in the Southeast.
		A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 10-year average temperature.
	www.wsi.com /corporate/news/releases/useg010303_ecoutlook.asp (918 words)

	Investor's Business Daily: Breaking News
		Traders ranging from farmers to refineries and end users to speculators, the weather is always a concern to all of them.
		That said, it's always important for every trader to weigh the potential impact of weather on a specific position in a portfolio.
		Often as a trader, you have to remember the people who are trading these markets in the pits and where they are.
	www.investors.com /breakingnews.asp?journalid=34592328&brk=1 (1197 words)

	Commodity Futures Seasonal Analysis for Traders
		Understanding that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future result, the Seasonal Strategies Service is designed to educate trader's about the logic behind the trades, allowing trader's to make educated guesses about the future performance of these historically reliable patterns...
		Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option would result in a futures position.
		SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS.
	www.commodityseasonals.com (576 words)

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