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	Subjective expected utility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Subjective expected utility is a method in decision theory in the presence of risk originally put forward by L.
		It combines two distinct subjective concepts: a personal utility function and a personal probability analysis based on Bayesian probability theory.
		Experiments involving offering people lottery tickets have suggested that many individuals do not seem to have personally consistent utility functions in the face of risk; Savage's response was not that this showed a flaw in his method, but that applying his method allowed individuals to improve their decision taking.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Subjective_expected_utility (267 words)

	Subjective Expected Utility - Intro
		In effect, Keynes (1921) had insisted that there was less "subjectivity" in epistemic probabilities than was commonly assumed as there is, in a sense, an "objective" (albeit not necessarily measurable) relation between knowledge and the probabilities that are deduced from them.
		This assertion, of course, is nowhere implied in subjective probability theory of either the Ramsey-de Finetti or intuitionist camps.
		Savage's subjective expected utility theory has been regarded by some observers as "the most brilliant axiomatic theory of utility ever developed" (Fishburn, 1970: p.191) and "the crowning glory of choice theory" (Kreps, 1988: p.120).
	cepa.newschool.edu /het/essays/uncert/subjective.htm (1896 words)

	Utility Theory (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		In this essay he hypothesized that the "utility" (subjective value) of an outcome (e.g., a prize in a lottery) was not directly proportional to the money value (measured in dollars) of the prize.
		Stable, sensible utility functions are obtained in these studies and individual differences between decision makers are often interpretable in terms of the curves: gamblers exhibit a convex (risk-seeking) form of the curve; staid, conservative decision makers usually exhibit concave (risk-averse) curves.
		Utility Theory is not exactly correct, but it is a good approximate description and it is general, elegant, and mathematically useful.
	psych.colorado.edu /~psyc4135/JDM_Notes12.html (1269 words)

	REM (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Cardinal representation of preferences (A is twice better than B, or A is better than B by 5 units of utility).
		Expected Utility – utility of an action weighted by the probabilities of different outcomes actually happening should this very action be chosen.
		Subjective Expected Utility – same as EU except for the probabilities of different outcomes are a product of individual beliefs (hence, subjective).
	darkwing.uoregon.edu /~osmirnov/ps347/prospect.html (347 words)

	Papers & Abstracts by Peter Wakker; Appeared/In Press (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		These observations cannot be explained by expected utility in which the reduction in premium is approximately equal to the default risk, as we demonstrate under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function.
		The cardinal coordinate independence condition, by itself necessary and sufficient for subjective expected utility maximization, is combined with the concavity assumption into concave cardinal coordinate independence, a concise condition characterizing the customary expected utility maximization with risk aversion.
		Subjective expected utility maximization with continuous utility is characterized, extending the result of Wakker (1984, Journal of Mathematical Psychology) to infinite state spaces.
	www1.fee.uva.nl /creed/wakker/oldpsabs.htm (14889 words)

	The Anscombe-Aumann Approach
		As we have seen, Savage's axiomatization of subjective expected utility theory is a rather involved affair.
		A simpler derivation of subjective expected utility theory was famously provided by F.J. Anscombe and Robert J. Aumann (1963).
		That is, after all, the purpose of this subjective expected utility theory - otherwise it would be merely a case of compound lotteries and we would simply apply von Neumann-Morgenstern.
	homepage.newschool.edu /~het/essays/uncert/anscombe.htm (1424 words)

	Expected utility
		The simplest version of expected utility formulates X as a set of finite-support probability distributions, also called lotteries, on a set C of consequences.
		Theories of expected utility that derive subjective probabilities of uncertain events along with utilities from axioms are grouped under the heading of decision under uncertainty.
		Savage's contribution stimulated a number of alternative axiomatizations of subjective expected utility for decision under uncertainty, including theories in Anscombe and Aumann (1963), Pratt, Raiffa and Schlaifer (1964) and Fishburn (1967).
	www.csi.uottawa.ca /ordal/papers/fishburn/node5.html (1087 words)

	[No title]
		Preferences are mathematically represented by subjective utility functions, subject to certain constraints (e.g., the expected utility of one outcome is greater than that of a second only if the agent prefers the first to the second).
		The fundamental claim of decision theory is that a rational decision is one with the highest subjective expected utility (there may be more than one due to ties).
		We rarely have definite probabilities and utilities, and even if we did, our working memory and computational capacities are too limited for us to perform the required calculations (or even to run through processes that would allow us to behave as if we performed such calculations).
	www.ou.edu /ouphil/faculty/chris/crittex/rat-fixed2.doc (2531 words)

	ipedia.com: Subjective expected utility Article (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Subjective expected utility is a method in decision theory in the presence of risk orginally put forward by L. Savage in 1954.
		Subjective expected utility is a method in decision theory in the presence of risk orginally put forward by L.
		If you believe an uncertain event has possible outcomes each with a utility to you of and where you believe that the probability of each outcome is, then your subjective expected utility will be
	www.ipedia.com /subjective_expected_utility.html (278 words)

	Encyclopedia: Subjective expected utility
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	www.nationmaster.com /encyclopedia/Subjective-expected-utility (294 words)

	Robustifying the Classical Analytics of Uncertainty, Rick Preferences and Beliefs
		The basic analytical concepts, tools and results of the classical expected utility/subjective probability model of risk preferences and beliefs can be extended to general event-smooth preferences over subjective acts that do not necessarily satisfy either the Sure-Thing Principle or the Hypothesis of Probabilistic Sophistication.
		This is accomplished by a technique analogous to that used by Machina (1982) and others to generalize expected utility analysis under objective uncertainty, combined with an event-theoretic approach to the classical model and the use of a special class of subjective events, acts and mixtures that exhibit almost-objective like properties.
		The classical expected utility/subjective probability characterizations of outcome monotonicity, outcome derivatives, probabilistic sophistication, comparative and relative subjective likelihood, and comparative risk aversion are all globally robustified to general event-smooth preferences over subjective acts.
	repositories.cdlib.org /uci_imbs_colloquium/Winter2005/2 (147 words)

	appendix
		Some suggest that responses will be allotted to each alternative in proportion to their relative expected values and some basic research, in some species and for some problems, supports this ‘matching law' (Herrnstein 1974).
		Other theorists suggest that outcome maximization occurs, meaning that the single response that yields the highest expected value will occur to the exclusion of all less profitable responses.
		LOW Subjective Expected Utility of Outcomes believed to be contingent upon Non-Performance:
	employees.oneonta.edu /downinll/appendix.htm (528 words)

	Towards a Constructive Approach to Act-Conditional Subjective Expected Utility Models (ResearchIndex) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		In decision making, the decision maker evaluates subjective probabilities and utilities with auxiliary references separately, and then combines the two components together consistently as the index of his preference over decision alternatives.
		Based on these two considerations, a constructive approach to act-conditional subjective expected utility theory is proposed in this...
		1 Remarks on 'Subjective expected utility for conditional prim..
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /xie95toward.html (389 words)

	JURIST - Tillers on Evidence
		Dear Reader, is this -- such talk about subjective expectations of marginal benefits and the like -- does such talk capture (roughly) the way Posner thinks about the problem of determining an appropriate individual or institutional "stopping point" for further investment in information or evidence?
		Glenn Shafer has pointed out that bits of evidence often function as "hints," that bits of evidence suggest previously unimagined hypotheses and refinements of existing hypotheses.
		JURIST is currently seeking law professors interested in voicing opinions and views in specific subject areas on a regular basis.
	jurist.law.pitt.edu /views/blogs/tillers/2003_03_23_archive.htm (606 words)

	EconPapers: Subjective Ambiguity, Expected Utility and Choquet Expected Utility (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Subjective Ambiguity, Expected Utility and Choquet Expected Utility
		Abstract: Using the Savage set up, the paper provides a simple axiomatization of the Choquet Expected Utility model where the capacity is an inner measure.
		The key axiom states that the decision-maker uses unambiguous acts to approximate ambiguous ones, In addition, the notion of 'ambiguity' is subjective and derived from perferences.
	econpapers.repec.org /paper/carcarecp/99-19.htm (210 words)

	Subjective Expected Utility - References
		F.J. Anscombe and R.J. Aumann (1963) "A Definition of Subjective Probability", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol.
		P.C. Fishburn (1973) "A Mixture-Set Axiomatization of Conditional Subjective Expected Utility", Econometrica, Vol.
		Karni and D. Schmeidler (1991) "Utility Theory with Uncertainty", in Hildenbrand and Sonnenschein, editors, Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Vol.
	cepa.newschool.edu /het/essays/uncert/savageref.htm (542 words)

	A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility
		It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive and ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive.
		The authors derive a Choquet expected utility representation and show that a modification of cumulative dominance leads to the classical expected utility representation.
		The relationship of their approach with that of D. Schmeidler, who uses a two-stage formulation to derive Choquet expected utility, is also explored.
	ideas.repec.org /a/ecm/emetrp/v60y1992i6p1255-72.html (702 words)

	SSRN-Subjective Recursive Expected Utility by Peter Klibanoff, Emre Ozdenoren
		We axiomatize a subjective version of the recursive expected utility model.
		This development extends the seminal results of Kreps and Porteus (1978) to a subjective framework and provides foundations that are easy to relate to axioms familiar from timeless models of decision making under uncertainty.
		Klibanoff, Peter and Ozdenoren, Emre, "Subjective Recursive Expected Utility" (November 2004).
	papers.ssrn.com /sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=624221 (209 words)

	Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation - Paolo, Marinacci (ResearchIndex) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Abstract: The theory of subjective expected utility (SEU) has been recentlyextend#I to allow ambiguity to matter for choice.
		Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events - Epstein, Zhang (1998)
		2: Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities (context) - Gilboa - 1987
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /paolo00ambiguity.html (397 words)

	R.S. Malpass ...eyewitness expert...eyewitness testimony
		A Subjective Expected Utility Approach to the Evaluation of Policy Alternatives.
		Utility of the sequential lineup procedure: Exploring generalizability issues.
		Demand characteristics and the "put-on": Reactivity in the study of subjective culture.
	eyewitness.utep.edu /Malpass.html (7705 words)

	EconPapers: Do individual violations of subjective expected utility persist in markets? Insight from an experiment (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-21)
		Do individual violations of subjective expected utility persist in markets?
		We empirically test the validity of this assumption by running an auction market for the sale of both risky and uncertain prospects.
		We conclude that, with the repetition of the market experience, individual bids converge towards behaviour consistent with subjective expected utility.
	econpapers.repec.org /paper/ecjac2003/58.htm (230 words)

	Frank P. Ramsey
		A wunderkind of first order, Ramsey had already written three important contributions to economics.
		The first, "Truth and Probability" (written in 1926, published 1931), was the first paper to lay out the theory of subjective probability and begin to axiomatize choice under (subjective) uncertainty, a task completed decades later by Bruno de Finetti and Leonard Savage.
		This was written "in opposition" to John Maynard Keynes's own information-theoretic Treatise on Probability.
	cepa.newschool.edu /het/profiles/ramsey.htm (377 words)

	FAA Human Factors Workbench Display Page
		FAA Human Factors Workbench Home > Subjective Expected Utility
		Transform things like safety, quality of life, and aesthetic value into a form that can be used for cost/benefit analyses.
		Mappings from attributes to utilities must enable comparisons across those whose preferences are being considered.
	www.hf.faa.gov /Portal/ShowProduct.aspx?ProductID=110 (122 words)

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