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Topic: Swing states

	Swing state - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		In United States presidential politics, a swing state (also, battleground state) is a state in which no candidate has overwhelming support, meaning that any of the major candidates have a reasonable chance of winning the state's electoral college votes.
		Swing states tend to have a fairly equitable balance of city and country-dwellers; states that are highly urban or highly rural are less likely to be swing states.
		The swing states of Illinois and New York were key to the outcome of the 1888 election.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Swing_state (831 words)

	Red state vs. blue state divide - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		U.S. state counties and congressional districts may also be called "red" or "blue" if their residents predominantly vote for one party or another in any given election.
		The red states tend to fall in the South, the Great Plains, and the Intermountain West, with the blue states in the Northeast and Pacific Coast.
		All states were consistent in voting for President Bush or his challenger in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections except for three: New Mexico (Gore in '00 and Bush in '04), Iowa (Gore in '00 and Bush in '04) and New Hampshire (Bush in '00 and Kerry in '04).
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Red_state (2072 words)

	EH.Net Encyclopedia: Historical Political Business Cycles in the United States
		Comparing the gainful employment rates across states with and without a gubernatorial election in the decennial years of 1870-1910, the evidence supports the notion of a political employment cycle for the states.
		Beginning with Gavin Wright's (1974) study, scholars have generally concluded that allocations of spending across the states were directed more by Roosevelt's electoral concerns than by economic need (Couch and Shughart 1998), since a disproportionate share of federal spending under the New Deal went to the potential swing states.
		They find that federal land ownership, political self-interest, and state economic need were all contributory factors to determining the allocation of WPA spending across the states.
	www.eh.net /encyclopedia/?article=heckelman.political.business.cycles (1743 words)

	Swing the State - Frequently Asked Questions (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		Swing the State (StS) began as Swing State Spring Break early in 2004.We thought it would be a great idea to send young activists to swing states over their spring breaks to help register new voters.
		When a Swing the State volunteer works with an affiliate, they are bound by the governing rules of that organization.
		Swing the State is too partisan for non-profit status.
	www.swingthestate.org /ss_faq.html (684 words)

	Swing the State : ( time + skills > $ ) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		Swing the State would like to thank everyone that participated in our “Countdown to the Nuclear Option” action alert.
		Swing the State and Drinking Liberally hosted “Rock Your Refund”: an all ages party in NYC to benefit education programs cut by Bush’s budget and groups working for tax justice.
		Swing the State is a 100% volunteer-operated program dedicated to converting volunteer time and skill into concrete, results-based work that builds power for progressives.
	www.swingthestate.org (770 words)

	Politics1 - American Politics, Elections, Candidates & Campaigns
		Bloomberg wire are both reporting the purported role of Vice President Dick Cheney appears to be the current focus of the federal grand jury investigating inyto who leaked the identity of cover CIA spy Valerie Plame in 2003 in retaliation for her husband being an outspoken critic of the Iraq War...
		GOP State Senator Russ Potts (Independent-VA) denies the rumors that he is planning to exit the gubernatorial race and endorse Tim Kaine (D).
		Tarrant, who clearly states he is in the race, has already said he'd spend at least a $550,000 from his pocket on the contest.
	www.politics1.com (4662 words)

	Kerry Surges Ahead in 12 Crucial Swing States as Bush Poll Ratings Plummet
		In some states the lead is slight, but in places such as New Hampshire, which Mr Bush won in 2000, Mr Kerry has a lead of almost 10 per cent.
		Republican and Democrat strategists know that in at least 30 states, along with the District of Columbia, the outcome of the vote is a foregone conclusion.
		Not surprisingly, this is where both sides are focusing much of their efforts, and trying to fine-tune their campaigns to reflect local issues, be it the controversial proposal to use Yucca Mountain in Nevada as a nuclear waste dump or else the issue of "guest worker" status for immigrants in heavily Hispanic New Mexico.
	www.commondreams.org /headlines04/0527-07.htm (845 words)

	Missouri - The Show-Me state always picks right in the presidential campaign. Will 2004 break its streak? By Chris ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		During a three-day swing through the state last week, I discovered that an inner demographer resides within nearly every politically minded Missourian: The state is a perfect blend of North, South, East, and West, I was told again and again.
		The areas outside of the state's two major metropolitan areas are known in politics as "outstate," and just as national politicians in America tend to hail from the South and Midwest, successful statewide politicians in Missouri almost always come from outstate, particularly the southwest.
		While the Big River region is notorious for its miniscule swings, Missouri is still close enough that Kerry can win by "growing" his support into the 'burbs, and after four years of Bush, he's got his choice of issues to do it with.
	slate.msn.com /id/2101779 (1513 words)

	CNN.com Specials
		So tough is the fight in "showdown states" -- also called "battleground states" -- as the November 2 election closes in, that it's taken on the intensity of a war, rather than an electoral, campaign.
		They are generally states where the margins of victory in 2000 were thin (6 percent or less), where both major campaigns are devoting significant resources this year, and where statewide polling indicates that the race remains tight.
		There were fewer states where the race was close, and those states were seldom critical in the electoral vote count.
	www.cnn.com /ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/explainer.html (681 words)

	Presidential race may be decided in just 18 states, including PA, W. VA and Ohio (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		In 18 states, the winner's margin was 6 percentage points or less, and at the start of the 2004 general election, at least 17 are seen as competitive battlegrounds, as the campaigns' initial advertising strategists suggest.
		The Bush states that may be most vulnerable to Democratic takeover are Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire and Nevada, while the five Gore states eyed by the GOP are Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico.
		The one Southern state not among the 18 battlegrounds of four years ago that the Democrats are eyeing is Louisiana, which Bush won by 8 percentage points, but where Democrats recently won the governorship and retained a Senate seat in the face of a fierce GOP effort in 2002.
	www.post-gazette.com /pg/04081/288572.stm (1783 words)

	ELECTION 2004: Bush is surging in swing states (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		In the meantime, all swing states remain sufficiently close enough that the coming Bush-Kerry debates could be decisive.
		The 14th swing state -- Florida -- could not be accurately surveyed yet because of disruption from recent hurricanes.
		In the seven swing states that tilted to Gore four years ago, roughly seven in 10 Bush supporters said they would vote for him simply because they like him, and only one in 10 said they would back Bush because they dislike Kerry.
	www.freep.com /news/politics/krpoll21e_20040921.htm (938 words)

	AlterNet: Election 2004: Flat-Growth Battlegrounds (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		An analysis of battleground state economies reveals that, whatever stock one puts in the President's assurances about an economy having "turned the corner," in terms of employment and income growth during Bush's term the swing states are doing worse than the country as a whole.
		But the former Confederate states have swung already, and the Midwest's population is dwindling relative to the Sunbelt.
		Based on the twin effects of both employment and income changes, the three states which have performed worst relative to national economy since January 2001 are all in the Southwest: Arizona (-7.9 percent job growth; 5.5 percent income increase), Colorado (-4.9; 1.9) and Nevada (-8.2; 3.8).
	www.alternet.org /election04/19523 (914 words)

	Swing State Project: Methodology, Map & List of Swing States (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		Methodology: Any state where the margin between (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanan) was ±10% in 2000 is considered a swing state for the purposes of this project.
		The one exception is North Carolina, which has moved into the swing state category by virute of John Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket.
		Historically, the home state of a party's vice-presidential candidate is one of the few (if only) factors that can materially affect the vote in that state.
	www.swingstateproject.com /2003/10/methodology_map.html (195 words)

	Here Come the Dirty Tricks
		In another swing state, New Hampshire, the regional chair of George Bush’s re-election campaign has had to step down because of his alleged role in a 2002 phone-jamming operation that prevented six Democratic get-out-the-vote offices from making outreach calls.
		Swing states aren’t the only ones where such tricks are being deployed.
		In some California counties, pollworkers are reportedly being trained not to offer voters the option of a paper ballot (and with it, a paper trail) even though the state makes that option available.
	www.motherjones.com /news/dailymojo/2004/11/10_502.html (804 words)

	Residency Requirements for Voting
		Most of the states have changed or eliminated their durational residency requirements to comply with the ruling, as shown.
		Note, for all states, in order to register to vote, an applicant must be a U.S. citizen, a legal resident of the state, and 18 years old on or before election day.
		Additionally, most states do not permit an individual to vote if he or she is a convicted felon currently serving time in prison or has been declared mentally incompetent by a court of law.
	www.infoplease.com /ipa/A0781452.html (500 words)

	West Virginia - Abortion-hating, gun-toting, immigrant-trashing Kerry voters. By William Saletan (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		Outsiders love to mock the state, as Abercrombie and Fitch did three months ago with a T-shirt that said, "It's all relative in West Virginia." Liberals were having so much fun making light of West Virginia that they didn't feel it slipping from their grasp four years ago.
		He, his wife, and his party are lavishing attention on the Mountain State, determined not to repeat Gore's mistake.
		West Virginia Democrats stick with the party of their fathers unless the GOP nominates an incumbent president, in which case the authority of the White House trumps the authority of family and party.
	slate.msn.com /id/2102496/entry/2102497 (1688 words)

	Something's rotten in the state of Denmark
		NH State Democratic chairwoman Kathy Sullivan noted that she thought it was "unfortunate the Justice Department delayed, for whatever reasons that it did, until after the election...
		That said, the totals/margins in both of those states were slim -- a slimmer 6,000 or so in New Mexico (a difference of.8 percent of the total vote, well within many states' percentage threshold for an automatic recount) than a 21,500 margin or so in Nevada.
		I'd be interested in what the rationale of the Cobb and Badnarik people for a Nevada recount is, given that there were states that Bush eeked out a win with a smaller margin, namely Iowa where the margin of victory was less than 1% with a margin of 10,059.
	rottendenmark.blogspot.com (12172 words)

	Driving Votes - Get Educated. Registering voters in swing states is the most effective way to defeat Bush.
		A swing state is a state where the outcome of the election is uncertain.
		There is no hard and fast definition of a swing state; we define swing states as states where the margin between Gore and Bush in the 2000 presidential election was less than 10%.
		The 20 swing states hold 213 electoral votes so a candidate must win in a significant number of swing states to win the election.
	www.drivingvotes.org /educate.shtml (521 words)

	Race 2004
		States lacking sufficient polling data to determine a winner: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania
		Ballot access is subject to change pending official certification (or rejection) by the state election supervisor and any related court challenges.
		Swing State Project - A political site tracking the campaign in battleground states.
	www.race2004.net (859 words)

	Wired News: E-Vote Fears Soar in Swing States
		And just as the Kerry and Bush campaigns are spending most of their efforts in those states where neither holds a heavy margin in the polls, voting advocacy groups concerned with the integrity of voting technology are devoting their resources toward the states which matter most.
		Now more than half of the voters in the state are expected to vote on touch screens this November, but that technology hasn't always proved itself a perfect fix.
		The political parties in the state are not as upset, at least publicly.
	www.wired.com /news/evote/0,2645,65044,00.html (863 words)

	MyDD :: We Can Finally Stop Worrying About Nader
		Today, the Green Party of the United States, the third largest party in America but possibly the largest political party in the world, nominated David Cobb (G-TX) for President on the second ballot at their national convention.
		Importantly, Cobb has pledged to run a "safe states" campaign, where he will avoid the 10-15 closest swing states and instead focus on reaching the ballot and campaigning for votes in solid red or solid blue territory.
		If Nader is only on the ballot in a few states, he will receive no media coverage, raise no money, and not have the ability to rake in nearly the same amount of votes he received last time in whatever two or three states he is on hte ballot.
	www.mydd.com /story/2004/6/26/182718/444 (3783 words)

	Mystery Pollster: Battleground States
		The state polls of these "battleground states" are coming fast and furious, are done by many companies trying to balance party, region and other demographics, and have dramatically less MOE than these.
		If one were to rationalize the battleground state data and take into account the margin of error, I’m not sure the appearance that Kerry is running better in the battleground states than he is nationally would bear up.
		October 23, 2004 09:37 PM The problem with your analysis is that the # of LV in swing states in the sample size is 20-30% of 600-1000 LV.
	www.mysterypollster.com /main/2004/10/battleground_st.html (4778 words)

	ed fitzgerald's unfutz (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-11-07)
		After all, in 2000 there were 5 states in which the winner was determined by less than that: New Hampshire (Bush by 1.27), Oregon (Gore by 0.44), Iowa (Gore by 0.31), Wisconsin (Gore by 0.22) and, of course, Florida (Bush by 0.01 and Supreme Court fiat).
		If you combine the national and the in-state data, the total observed Nader effect is 1.62 points being drawn from Kerry, so I'd say it's reasonable to assume that he'll take away anywhere from 1 1/2 to 2 points in the election, or possibly more, depending on what the undecideds do.
		While the percentage swings to Bush are all single-digit, the consensus is overwhelming, directly discrediting Nader’s claims.
	unfutz.blogspot.com /2004/06/nader-effect-observed.html (1297 words)

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