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Topic: The Doctrine of Chances

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Abraham de Moivre

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Thomas Bayes

Pierre Simon de Laplace

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Calvinist

Champagne, France

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Mathematics

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Abraham de Moivre

	doctrine - Definitions from Dictionary.com
		Synonyms: These nouns denote a principle taught, advanced, or accepted, as by a group of philosophers: the legal doctrine of due process; church dogma; experimentation, one of the tenets of the physical sciences.
		doctrine (12c.), from L. doctrina "teaching, body of teachings, learning," from doctor "teacher" (see doctor).
		The Monroe Doctrine in U.S. history was first used 1848, in reference to principles of policy contained in the message of President Monroe to Congress on Dec. 2, 1823.
	dictionary.reference.com /browse/doctrine (318 words)

	Doctrine
		Doctrinal literature is developed by the PLA Academy of Military Science (AMS) under the authority of the CMC and in close coordination, probably, with the PLA General Staff Department (GSD).
		The People's War doctrine, which was the result of lessons learned from the War of Resistance against Japan (1937-1945), emphasized the preparation of masses of foot soldiers and militia to engage in prolonged guerrilla warfare in China's vast interior.
		This limited deterrence doctrine was in evidence during the March 1996 Taiwan straits confrontation, during which several Chinese M-9 missiles were fired at various open-ocean target areas near Taiwan, as part of a larger series of military exercises intended to intimidate the Taiwan government.
	www.globalsecurity.org /military/world/china/doctrine-overview.htm (3498 words)

	Core Criminal Law Subjects: Evidence: Relevance (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-08)
		Tyndale, No. 00-0113 (the doctrine of chances is a viable theory of logical relevance, and it posits that it is unlikely a defendant would be repeatedly, innocently involved in similar, suspicious circumstances).
		Tyndale, No. 00-0113 (to avail oneself of the doctrine of chances, the proponent of the evidence must show that the "other acts" are sufficiently similar; while the factual bases at issue between the charged and uncharged acts need not mirror one another, there must be more than the crudest sort of similarities between the two).
		Tyndale, No. 00-0113 (the doctrine of chances is limited to those circumstances where actions are sufficiently similar to demonstratively contribute to the truth finding process; its use should not be frequent, except in rare factual settings).
	www.armfor.uscourts.gov /digest/2002dig/IIIC26.htm (173 words)

	Under discussion: Doctrine
		For doctrine to be "true", or to describe dialectics as a doctrine, doctrine must be considered a body of teachings or principles, and in this sense, a foundation of the science of society.
		Doctrine comprises the "fundamental principles by which military forces guide their actions in support of national objectives." It is the core statement of an army's view of war and serves as a common guide for the conduct of operations.
		This doctrine was appropriate in the period of maturing imperialism with all its military and social consequences.
	www.scienceofsociety.org /discuss/doctrine.html (3825 words)

	People v. Erving
		Appellant argues the trial court improperly relied on the "doctrine of chances" to justify admission of this evidence and that the prosecutor improperly argued the import of the doctrine to the jury.
		The doctrine of chances relies on "'the instinctive recognition of that logical process which eliminates the element of innocent intent by multiplying instances of the same result until it is perceived that this element cannot explain them all.
		Applying the doctrine of chances, the court held the other deaths were admissible to prove the identity of Paul's murderer, "because of the remoteness of the possibility that so many infants in the care and custody of defendant would suffer.
	cl.bna.com /cl/19980513/1324.htm (3443 words)

	Wynn v. State
		("We infer the prosecution’s reliance on the doctrine of chances from his opening and closing statements," explaining the relevance of the uncharged misconduct evidence.) The doctrine of chances is based on probabilities, and is premised on the proposition that mere coincidence is less probable as the recurrence of similar events increases.
		Under the doctrine of chances, the initial decision facing the trier is whether the uncharged incidents are so numerous that it is objectively improbable that so many accidents would befall the accused.
		The doctrine of chances could reasonably be viewed either as a separate theory of relevance upon which to base the admissibility of other crimes evidence or as the theoretical underpinning of the absence of mistake or accident exception explicitly relied upon by the trial judge.
	cl.bna.com /cl/19981021/90.htm (14018 words)

	WisPolitics.com (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-08)
		Clearly in Francis, it was the doctrine of chances that permitted joinder.
		Under the doctrine of chances it was illogical that the defendant would have mistakenly touched four different young girls in their private parts.
		Therefore, under the doctrine of chances the evidence of the five touchings is relevant.
	www.wispolitics.com /index.iml?Article=37734 (4308 words)

	U.S. v. Tyndale
		To the extent that this Court has recognized the "doctrine of chances," we have insisted that it be used only when there is a factual predicate demonstrating that the subsequent ingestion was under circumstances sufficiently similar to the first ingestion to justify an inference that the first ingestion was knowing.
		In the present case, there was not a sufficient factual predicate for the doctrine of chances, because there was no competent proof of the first and most significant point of similarity under the doctrine of chances, i.e., proof of prior use of methamphetamine.
		Furthermore, to the extent that this Court applies the doctrine of chances, we must require that the court members be properly instructed on its application.
	www.armfor.uscourts.gov /opinions/2002Term/00-0113.htm (5781 words)

	The Gaming Table: Its Votaries and Victims, Vol. II - CHAPTER VIII.
		In the matter of skill and chance the nature of cards is mixed,-- most games having in them both elements of interest,--since the success of the player must depend as much on the chance of the 'deal' as on his skill in playing the game.
		Under the name of the Doctrine of Chances or Probabilities, a very learned science,--much in vogue when lotteries were prevalent,--has been applied to gambling purposes; and in spite of the obvious abstruseness of the science, it is not impossible to give the general reader an idea of its processes and conclusions.
		The chances against holding seven trumps are 160 to 1; against six, it is 26 to 1; against five, 6 to 1; and against four nearly 2 to 1.
	www.worldwideschool.org /library/books/socl/socialconcerns/thegamingtable-2/chap8.html (3291 words)

	Math History - Enlightenment
		Maclaurin is awarded the Grand Prix of the Académie des Sciences for his work on gravitational theory to explain the tides.
		Much of this probability treatise is based on the work of de Moivre.
		Bayes publishes An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances which gives Bayes theory of probability.
	lahabra.seniorhigh.net /pages/teachers/pages/math/timeline/mEnlightenment.html (1226 words)

	SSRN-An Evidentiary Paradox: Defending the Character Evidence Prohibition by Upholding a Non-Character Theory of ...
		The thesis of this article is that the criticisms of the doctrine of chances are mistaken.
		Doctrine of chances reasoning enables the trier of fact to negatively reject the hypothesis that random chance accounts for all the outcomes.
		There may be a case for abolishing the character evidence prohibition, but that case cannot be premised on the argument that the doctrine of chances is a spurious non-character theory.
	papers.ssrn.com /sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=795725 (670 words)

	Oregon Judicial Department Appellate Court Opinions
		Nonetheless, the state argues that the November 1999 evidence is relevant as an exception to the general rule under the "doctrine of chances" rule described by the Supreme Court in State v.
		As noted above, generally the "doctrine of chances" is not available to prove that a defendant acted in a particular manner but, rather, to impute to him a particular mental state once the requisite conduct has been proved.
		In sum, the "doctrine of chances" is applicable when the logical relevance of the evidence sought to be admitted rests on an objective improbability because the similarities of the two acts outweigh the dissimilarities, in contrast to a subjective probability based on the defendant's character.
	www.publications.ojd.state.or.us /A109520.htm (1729 words)

	Kohler Biographies
		His text on probability, The Doctrine of Chances, emanated from an article first published in Latin in 1711 and was published posthumously in its final and third edition in 1756.
		And thus in all cases it will be found, that although Chance produces irregularities, still the Odds will be infinitely great, that in process of Time, those Irregularities will bear no proportion to the recurrency of that Order which naturally results from Original Design...
		The quotation is taken from Abraham de Moivre, The Doctrine of Chances, 3rd ed.
	www.swlearning.com /quant/kohler/stat/biographical_sketches/bio8.2.html (366 words)

	Fairness Doctrine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The Fairness Doctrine was a regulation of the United States' Federal Communications Commission which required broadcast licensees to present controversial issues of public importance, and to present such issues in an honest, equal and balanced manner.
		Although the Doctrine was rarely enforced, many radio broadcasters believed it had a limiting effect on their broadcasting, forcing them to avoid any commentary that could be deemed critical or unfair by powerful interests.
		The FCC held that the doctrine had grown to inhibit rather than enhance debate and suggested that, due to the many media voices in the marketplace at the time, the doctrine was probably unconstitutional.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Fairness_Doctrine (734 words)

	State v. Lanier, (03-476) 07/20/2004
		The doctrine of chances is especially probative when the two crimes are similar in nature.
		When considered in light of the doctrine of chances, we cannot hold that the Williams evidence isrendered inadmissible by its remoteness in time from Dorian's death.
		The Ludie Brown fire evidence, along with the evidence of Johnny Ray Williams' death, strengthens the application of the doctrine of chances and lessens the probability that Dorian Lanier's death occurred as an accident.
	www.aoc.state.nc.us /www/public/coa/opinions/2004/030476-1.htm (5868 words)

	Universalism and the Bible
		The only passage cited in favor of this dubious doctrine of no further chances in the notorious NIV Study Bible note to I Peter 4:6 is Hebrews 9:27, which reads: "Just as man is destined to die once, and after that to face judgment," with the sentence being completed in v.
		For as long as the universalist who believes in further chances sensibly allows for the possibility that, while punishment is occurring, those suffering from it can't just end it any time they want, she can make perfectly good sense of the words this parable puts into the mouth of Father Abraham.
		I have received many e-mails from those who have related that the doctrine of eternal hell was the biggest stumbling block to their accepting Christianity, and many others said that believing that doctrine interfered greatly with their ability to love God.
	www.drewc.net /articles/article27.html (9902 words)

	Charles Babbage Institute: RESEARCH PROGRAM> Current research (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-08)
		Bayes’ Theorem, from which Bayesian statistics are drawn, was by far the most popular mathematical tool used in computer-aided differential diagnosis in the twentieth century.
		The mathematical theorem was developed by the Reverend Thomas Bayes of England and published posthumously as “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances” in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1763.
		Bayesian statistics are conditional, allowing one to determine the chance that a certain disease is present given a certain symptom, but only with prior knowledge of how often the disease and symptom are correlated and how often the symptom is present in the absence of the disease.
	www.cbi.umn.edu /shp/entries/bayesianstatistics.html (814 words)

	The Doctrine of Chances - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The Doctrine of Chances is a book on probability theory by 18th-century French mathematician Abraham de Moivre, published in 1718.
		The book's title came to be synonymous with probability theory, and accordingly the phrase was used in Thomas Bayes' famous posthumous paper An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, wherein a version of Bayes' theorem was first introduced.
		The third edition of The Doctrine of Chances.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Doctrine_of_Chances (185 words)

	The Galileo Project
		His Doctrine of Chances, 1718, was perhaps the key work in the early history of probability.
		De Moivre was always looking for patronage, which he never seriously found, and with several others (I think especially of the French mathematician in the Netherlands--Girard, I think--and of Michelini) he illustrates the possible tragic face of the system of patronage.
		He dedicated his paper "Mensura sortis," 1711, the seed of the Doctrine of Chances, to Francis Robartes (later the Earl of Radnor), who had suggested the problem to him.
	galileo.rice.edu /Catalog/NewFiles/moivre.html (550 words)

	Thomas Bayes Biography (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-08)
		It is speculated that Bayes was elected to the Royal Society on the strength of the Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions, as he is not known to have published any other mathematical works during his lifetime.
		Bayes' solution to a problem of "inverse probability" was presented in the Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (1763), published posthumously by his friend Richard Price in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.
		The probability of any event is the ratio between the value at which an expectation depending on the happening of the event ought to be computed, and the chance of the thing expected upon it's happening.
	www.biographybase.com /biography/Bayes_Thomas.html (585 words)

	Doctrine - definition from Biology-Online.org
		That which is taught; what is held, put forth as true, and supported by a teacher, a school, or a sect; a principle or position, or the body of principles, in any branch of knowledge; any tenet or dogma; a principle of faith; as, the doctrine of atoms; the doctrine of chances.
		doctrine denotes whatever is recommended as a speculative truth to the belief of others.
		doctrine supposes a teacher; precept supposes a superior, with a right to command.
	www.biology-online.org /dictionary/Doctrine (208 words)

	Joint Publication 3-12: Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations
		It sets forth joint doctrine to govern the activities and performance of the Armed Forces of the United States in operations and provides the doctrinal basis for interagency coordination and for US military involvement in multinational operations.
		It is not the intent of this publication to restrict the authority of the JFC from organizing the force and executing the mission in a manner the JFC deems most appropriate to ensure unity of effort in the accomplishment of the overall objective.
		For doctrine and procedures not ratified by the United States, commanders should evaluate and follow the multinational command’s doctrine and procedures, where applicable and consistent with US law, regulations, and doctrine.
	www.globalsecurity.org /wmd/library/policy/dod/jp3_12fc2_15mar2005.htm (535 words)

	Chapter Champignon <i>to</i> Change of C by Webster's Dictionary (1913 Edition)
		A possibility; a likelihood; an opportunity; — with reference to a doubtful result; as, a chance to escape; a chance for life; the chances are all against him.
		The mathematical expression, of a chance is the ratio of frequency with which an event happens in the long run.
		To take the chances of; to venture upon; — usually with it as object.
	www.bibliomania.com /2/3/257/1194/22181/2.html (359 words)

	The Narrow: Atheists Discuss Fundamentalism (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-08)
		A doctrine is simply a belief or set of beliefs held by a group.
		In fact there are doctrines in almost every facet of life because the term generically refers to a principle that is taught as true and supported by a teacher, school or sect.
		For example, the doctrine of chances, doctrine of sovereign immunity, the Monroe doctrine.
	www.thenarrow.org /archives/2005/05/atheists_discus.html (1383 words)

	The world's top bayes theorem websites
		Bayes worked on the problem of computing a distribution for the parameter of a binomial distribution (to use modern terminology); his work was edited and presented posthumously (1763) by his friend Richard Price, in An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.
		Thomas Bayes (1763), "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53.
		Thomas Bayes "An essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" (Bayes's essay in the original notation)
	www.websbiggest.com /wiki-article-tab.cfm/bayes__theorem (1681 words)

	Abraham de Moivre Summary
		Demoivre published a number of papers, but his most original work was a book on the subject of probability, Doctrine of Chances (1718).
		His first book, Doctrine of Chances (1718), was based on earlier work by Christiaan Huygens and Montmort and included innovations that were used in probability theory and statistics for the next 200 years.
		His first book, entitled Doctrine of Chances, dealt with questions about games of chance (such as dice) and was published in 1718.
	www.bookrags.com /Abraham_de_Moivre (2193 words)

	Mill, System of Logic: Raciocinative and Inductive Part I ToC: The Online Library of Liberty
		Doctrine that a proposition is the expression of a relation between two ideas, 87
		Doctrine that it is the expression of a relation between the meanings of two names, 90
		Foundation of the doctrine of chances, as taught by mathematics, 534
	oll.libertyfund.org /Home2/BookToCPage.php?recordID=1269 (1783 words)

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