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Topic: Unpredictability

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	Randomness - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		Whether or not they are unpredictable in terms of computability theory, i.e.,given initial conditions exactly can the result be predicted, seems to be a subject of current research.
		Unpredictability is required in some applications, such as the many uses of random numbers in cryptography.
		"Unpredictable" random numbers were first investigated in the context of gambling, and many randomizing devices such as dice, shuffling playing cards, and roulette wheels, were first developed for use in gambling.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Randomness (2556 words)

	Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War
		Clausewitz ought to display a deep and abiding concern for unpredictability and complexity, and consequently to search for ways to express the importance of such matters as context, interaction, effects disproportionate to their causes, sensitivity to initial conditions, time-dependent evolutionary processes, and the serious limitations of linear analysis.
		This is a root explanation for unpredictability in those nonlinear phenomena that exhibit chaotic regimes of behavior.
		Unpredictability in war due to this second form of chance is thus unavoidable.
	www.clausewitz.com /CWZHOME/Beyerchen/CWZandNonlinearity.htm (11712 words)

	From simple rules to order, fluctuations, chaos
		Regardless, substantial unpredictability does emerge in surprisingly simple well-ruled situations, and this, like autonomous behavior in such systems is worth keeping in mind.
		The unpredictibility of chaotic systems is quite different from non-rule based unpredictability, precisely because it does have one or another underlying rule.
		While deterministic unpredictability reveals new kinds of order, and helps account for a number of natural pheneomena, some examples of order are critically dependent on non-deterministic rather than chaotic unpredictability, and this is probably true of a variety of natural phenomena as well.
	serendip.brynmawr.edu /complexity/newton/rules4.html (1286 words)

	Zvon - RFC 1750 [Randomness Recommendations for Security] - Unpredictability
		Designing portable application code to generate unpredictable numbers based on such system clocks is particularly challenging because the system designer does not always know the properties of the system clocks that the code will execute on.
		One strategy which may give a misleading appearance of unpredictability is to take a very complex algorithm (or an excellent traditional pseudo-random number generator with good statistical properties) and calculate a cryptographic key by starting with the current value of a computer system clock as the seed.
		Another strategy that can give a misleading appearance of unpredictability is selection of a quantity randomly from a database and assume that its strength is related to the total number of bits in the database.
	www.zvon.org /tmRFC/RFC1750/Output/chapter4.html (1150 words)

	Unpredictability (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		It is becoming evident that the universe is a chaotic place in the mathematical sense of unpredictability (not in the street sense of unmanageable pandemonium).
		Science is coming more and more to the conclusion that unpredictability is the normal course of events in the universe.
		The unpredictability of a complex system does not mean that causal relationships are lost.
	home1.gte.net /res2216j/wonder/id72.html (1052 words)

	Monitoring, Incentives, and Cooperation: The Strategy Behind the Organizational Game
		The combination of equity and monitoring contracts are used to reduce this unpredictability.
		The optimal way of sharing the unpredictability depends on which partner provides more critical human capital, how strong the bargaining power of each partner is, and how the reputational bond will work for each partner.
		Each partner tends to minimize his own unpredictability too much and, as a consequence, does not maximize his long-term interest.
	repositories.cdlib.org /blewp/art136 (382 words)

	creativity and unpredictability
		Indeed, unpredictability is often said to be the essence of creativity.
		Constraints and unpredictability, familiarity and surprise, are somehow combined in original thinking.
		In addition to the unpredictability resulting from randomness, Sims's computer- generated images often cause a deeper form of surprise.
	www.stanford.edu /group/SHR/4-2/text/boden.html (7964 words)

	The Unpredictability of War and Force Structure
		One is the unpredictability surrounding the number of theaters in which this war will be waged in the next two years, and the second is the type of warfare in which the United States is compelled to engage, which can swallow up huge numbers of troops in defensive operations.
		These are men and women in their 30s and 40s who have families and mortgages -- none of which might survive the stress of a manpower plan designed in a way that imposes maximum unpredictability and disruption on mature lives.
		The problem is that on the one hand, the Defense Department is in the process of running off critically needed troops with unpredictable and spasmodic call-ups.
	vialardi.org /IRAQ/unpredictability_of_war.html (2217 words)

	Spark Kate (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		Unpredictability as the key element of a rich experiential world.
		Role-play allows each participant to make their own decisions based on their values and research, and also to be confronted with negative responses from others - and negative outcomes in terms of their goals, just as in any work-world reality.
		Dealing with such unpredictable responses is the fulcrum of learning and somehow overshadows terms such as 'soft skill development'.
	www.picknowl.com.au /homepages/katemf/sparks/default.htm (468 words)

	Izzedine al Qassam Forces - Hutchinson encyclopedia article about Izzedine al Qassam Forces
		Its militant wing, the Izzedine Al Qassam Brigades, played a major role in the Intifada, the Palestinian uprising in the Israeli-occupied territories from 1987, particularly in the economically deprived Gaza Strip, the Hamas heartland.
		Responsible for attacks on Israeli soldiers and civilians and for suicide bombings, the group gained a reputation for ruthlessness and unpredictability.
		The short-term aim of Hamas is a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territories and its long-term goal is the establishment of an Islamic state on the land of Palestine.
	encyclopedia.farlex.com /Izzedine+al+Qassam+Forces (622 words)

	Tinotopia: Unpredictability As A Drag On The U.S. Economy and Society
		Tinotopia → Log → Unpredictability As A Drag On The U.S. Economy and Society (5 Jan 2005)
		You hear quite a bit these days about the importance of the rule of law and of property rights as necessary precursors to development and the emergence of a healthy society.
		But what applies at the macro level usually applies at the micro level, too, and this is what disturbs me: American society seems to be becoming more and more unpredictable on a micro level, and I think that these thousand cuts are adding up to a significant drain on our culture and on our economy.
	www.tinotopia.com /log/archive/2005/01/05/unpredictability_as_a_drag_on_the_us_economy_and_society.htm (1343 words)

	The Wrestling Menu - Unpredictability, Kurt Angle & Steve Austin as GM
		Granted, it is not the only reason, but if what we are watching is unpredictable, then we are not only more likely to watch, but also more likely to view with a greater sense of concentration & anticipation.
		I think there was enough unpredictability leading up to this match to have us looking forward to it with some expectation.
		If you have any other examples where the unpredictability of the outcome of a match, resulted in you liking the match better than you ought to, then please do not hesitate to let me know via return e-mail.
	www.lordsofpain.net /news/2003/articles/1054117502.php (2912 words)

	Unpredictability
		The chaos theory of unpredictability is an extension of the well-known
		Prigogine's principle says that as systems become more complex, a threshold of complexity will be reached such that the system will begin functioning in unpredictable directions; such a system will lose its initial conditions and these can never be reversed or recovered (Briggs and Peat, 1989; Kondepudi and Prigongine, 1998).
		All that we can ever know of the future is in terms of probabilities.
	www.schuelers.com /ChaosPsyche/part_1_16.htm (260 words)

	Real-Time Object-Oriented Data Management for Manufacturing Automation (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		Such unpredictability, which is fairly common across all available ROTSs, exhibits itself due to timer interval and task execution time variations.
		However, given RTOS unpredictability, the assumptions underlying this RM theory are no longer true --- as such idealized conditions do not exit in a real computer system.
		Hence, our proposed MBST technique can be used as a practical tool for predicting the performance of tasks that have not yet been fully implemented to assess feasibility of the timing requirements given by the application early on.
	davis.wpi.edu /dsrg/RTDB/nsf-idm99-rtdb.html (1833 words)

	SSRN-Measuring Value-relevance in Accounting-based Variables Without Reference to Market Prices by Ilia Dichev
		New information is by definition unpredictable, which implies that unpredictability of changes is a fundamental characteristic of all proper measures of equity value.
		Thus, investigating the unpredictability of changes of accounting-based measures of equity value (e.g., EBO values and earnings) is potentially useful in assessing their value-relevance.
		A major advantage of the unpredictability of changes approach is that it allows for value-relevance investigations which are impossible or problematic with market-based data.
	papers.ssrn.com /sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=94328 (334 words)

	Unpredictability makes India vulnerable
		And that it is this very unpredictability that makes the pundits rank them among the favourites even as they tear their hair out in dismay.
		The biggest one is their own unpredictability -- no one, including the players themselves, know how they will go on a given day.
		Fielding -- and field setting -- are rather more visible liabilities: Indian fielders are almost invariably placed too deep to save singles and are not, with a couple of honorable exceptions, swift enough to stop fours; the throwing is abysmal and together, these factors are worth at least 30-40 runs to any opposition.
	www.rediff.com /wc2003/2003/jan/11prem.htm (1139 words)

	PhilSci Archive - Randomness is Unpredictability
		The concept of randomness has been unjustly neglected in recent philosophical literature, and when philosophers have thought about it, they have usually acquiesced in views about the concept that are fundamentally flawed.
		After indicating the ways in which these accounts are flawed, I propose that randomness is to be understood as a special case of the epistemic concept of the unpredictability of a process.
		This proposal arguably captures the intuitive desiderata for the concept of randomness; at least it should suggest that the commonly accepted accounts cannot be the whole story and more philosophical attention needs to be paid.
	philsci-archive.pitt.edu /archive/00002134 (122 words)

	NKS-SJSU: Irreducibility and Unpredictability in Nature (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		Since cellular automata rules are given as initial condition for further evolution, it leads to notion that irreducibility and unpredictability are produced intrinsically.
		Moreover, an unpredictable behavior such as rule 37R indeed cannot be predicted with any form of mathematic formula or physics laws.
		A notion of unpredictability can even be seen when describing the pattern from Code 9111177.
	sjsu.rudyrucker.com /~harry.fu/paper (3654 words)

	A weather eye on unpredictability (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		It represents one of a generic class of strange attractors whose topology characterises the chaotic, unpredictable properties of the basic equations.
		To the lay person, the unpredictability of the weather may be a curse; to the meteorologist, it is what makes the subject fascinating, and fun to study.
		Above all, chaos does not mean that we must throw in the towel, and leave all to chance.
	www.fortunecity.com /emachines/e11/86/weather.html (3045 words)

	Unpredictability of Self-Directed Education - Pop Occulture
		And that is the thing about self-directed education - is this epitome of the unpredictable, you have no idea where it will take you, no idea how many mistakes you might make, no idea how many sacred cows will have to be abandoned, if you really let loose and go after it.
		This sheer unpredictability is one of the biggest drawbacks I think from letting “ordinary people” make the leap into self-directed conspiratorial thinking.
		If you stay on a normal track of education, you’re presented with goals, objectives, syllabi, and at the end of it you have a shiny degree to show for your efforts.
	www.timboucher.com /journal/2005/07/14/unpredictability-of-self-directed-education (385 words)

	Special Needs Adoption Book Description (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		Chaos, Madness, and Unpredictability is a book about the placement of older and handicapped children for adoption.
		Although written some years ago, the philosophies, methods, and techniques remain a proven approach for maximizing efforts to create successful adoptions for today's older and handicapped children in search of permanent families.
		Copies of Chaos, Madness, and Unpredictability (375 pages) may be purchased from Dr. Unger for $18.95.
	home.att.net /~im4kids/book_description.htm (253 words)

	John Kemp: Spontaneous Change, Unpredictability and Consumption Externalities
		The patterns of demand generated are emergent, self-organising, indeterminate and unpredictable, but have a relevance for understanding the formation of real patterns of consumption.
		The sequential pattern of choices is unpredictable, non-ergodic and determined by the path of prior choices.
		It has been shown that a simple model can generate a variety of profiles that are unpredictable, but which may have a relevance for the understanding of real time series.
	jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk /2/3/1.html (7654 words)

	From Unpredictability to Indistinguishability: A Simple Construction of Pseudo-Random Functions from MACs - Naor, ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between unpredictable functions (which formalize the concept of a MAC) and pseudo-random functions.
		We show an efficient transformation of the former to the latter using a unique application of the Goldreich-Levin hard-core bit (taking the inner-product with a random vector r): While in most applications of the GL-bit the random vector r may be public, in our setting this is not the case.
		that h N; a;g is unpredictable against an adaptive sample and a random challenge.
	citeseer.ist.psu.edu /94005.html (695 words)

	Unpredictability (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		It can also be the inability to predict how much of a person's time will go to what area, usually due to unscheduled requests to do something that competes with their planned time on projects.
		It can also be the unpredictable level of bugs in a release.
		Part of the problem is the group usually has these basic controls, and is still wildly unpredictable.
	smile.jcon.org /soft/article/Unpredictability.html (2807 words)

	We can’t ignore nature’s unpredictability - September 23, 2005
		Their great complex at Pueblo Bonito was constructed below a huge overhang — the prehistoric city’s fate like that of New Orleans — left largely to providence.
		When the shelf finally plunged, destroying 30 excavated rooms in 1941, the Anasazi were long gone, but the rockslide’s lesson about nature’s unpredictability remains.
		Among the reasons for the Anasazi exodus in the 12th and 13th centuries was a long drought, scientists say.
	www.mailtribune.com /archive/2005/0923/life/stories/02life.htm (753 words)

	[17 Sep 1998] GA/9437 : NEED FOR MECHANISM TO MITIGATE UNPREDICTABILITY OF GLOBALIZATION STRESSED BY SPEAKERS, AS ...
		Speaking on behalf of the "Group of 77" developing countries and China, he said there was no reason why there could not be a mechanism -- similar to the World Trade Organization for matters of international trade -- to monitor financial and monetary flows.
		Brian Atwood, Administrator of the Agency for International Development of the United States, said there had been tremendous gains in the global economy over the past 50 years, which were the result of successful development efforts and globalization.
		Noting the existence of the World Trade Organization for matters of international trade, he said there was no reason why there could not be a similar mechanism to monitor financial and monetary flows.
	www.un.org /News/Press/docs/1998/19980917.ga9437.html (5304 words)

	Comments on the unpredictability of the character Hamlet, and parallels between Hamlet and Shakespeare himself (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		A character without pattern won't increase dramatic tension and won't have the same possibilities for entertainment as a character who is mostly, but not completely, predictable.
		Some of Hamlet's more unpredictable, "unwieldy" moments are in response to the traditional pattern of the revenge tragedy.
		Indeed, much of the play Hamlet can be seen as a conflict between the conventional elements of a revenge tragedy, compelling Hamlet to stick to his "prescribed" course, and Hamlet himself, who continually delays, observes and satirizes proceedings.
	members.aol.com /secretslag/hamlet4.html (361 words)

	The Optimism of Uncertainty
		We forget how often we have been astonished by the sudden crumbling of institutions, by extraordinary changes in people's thoughts, by unexpected eruptions of rebellion against tyrannies, by the quick collapse of systems of power that seemed invincible.
		What leaps out from the history of the past hundred years is its utter unpredictability.
		A revolution to overthrow the czar of Russia, in that most sluggish of semi-feudal empires, not only startled the most advanced imperial powers but took Lenin himself by surprise and sent him rushing by train to Petrograd.
	www.thenation.com /doc/20040920/zinn (1111 words)

	The Manila Times Internet Edition \| OPINION > Violence and political unpredictability (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-09)
		IS the world entering into a dangerous new phase of political unpredictability caused by the political impact of unpredictable, violent events?
		This is a fair question to raise in view of the outcomes of recent elections in Spain and Taiwan.
		Violence and unpredictability are the names of the new political game.
	www.manilatimes.net /national/2004/apr/03/yehey/opinion/20040403opi2.html (1419 words)

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