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Topic: World3

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	World3 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
		The World3 model was a computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the Earth.
		Since World3 was originally created it has had minor tweaks to get to the World3/91 model used in the book Beyond the Limits and later was tweaked to get the World3/2000 model distributed by the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research.
		We have a mixed degree of confidence in the numerical parameters of the model; some are well-known physical or biological constants that are unlikely to change, some are statistically derived social indices quite likely to change, and some are pure guesses that are perhaps only of the right order of magnitude.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/World3 (980 words)

	Limits to Growth, 30 Year Update
		World3 does not distinguish among different geographic parts of the world, nor does it represent separately the rich and poor.
		The most common criticisms of the original World3 model were that it underestimated the power of technology and that it did not represent adequately the adaptive resilience of the free market.
		World3 can be used to test some of the simplest changes that might result from a society that decides to back down from overshoot and pursue goals more satisfying and sustainable than perpetual material growth.
	www.mnforsustain.org /meadows_limits_to_growth_30_year_update_2004.htm (5679 words)

	LIMITS TO GROWTH: The 30 Year Update by Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		The World3 computer model is complex, but its basic structure is not difficult to understand.
		The authors developed World3 to understand the broad sweep of the future-the possible behavior patterns through which the human economy will interact with the carrying capacity of the planet over the century.
		Using the World3 computer model, Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update presents 10 different scenarios for the future, through the year 2100.
	www.popco.org /press/articles/2005-1-meadows.html (5419 words)

	Beyond the Limits-Executive Summary (con't) (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		World3 is, like all models, much, much simpler than the real world.
		It is a nonlinear feedback model, one that tries to capture the forces behind population and capital growth, the layers of changing, interlinked environmental limits, and the delays in the physical and economic processes through which human society interacts with its environment.
		World3 shows, in no uncertain terms, that if the world system continues to evolve with no significant changes, the most likely result is not only overshoot, but collapse, and within another few decades.
	www.rmi.org /sitepages/pid795.php (1356 words)

	World3 nonrenewable resource sector - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		The world3 nonrenewable resource sector is the portion of the world3 model that simulates the nonrenewable resources.
		This model assumes that regardless of how much money is spent on extraction, there is a finite limit for the amount of nonrenewable resources that can be extracted.
		This variable is the current amount of non-renewable resources divided by the initial amount of non-renewable resources available.
	en.wikipedia.org /wiki/World3_nonrenewable_resource_sector (681 words)

	Beyond the Limits Reader
		World3 was designed to understand how human society will approach the world's changing carrying capacity, and what conditions or policies will increase the chance of a smooth approach to the capacity.
		In World3, the cost of a technology is given as a percentage reduction in industrial output.
		The World3 model groups together these two kinds of technical advance, which leads to some inaccuracy in analyzing the pace at which products become more resource-efficient, but this pace is not accurately known anyway.
	www.rpi.edu /~simonk/ESP/BTLReader.html (7614 words)

	Believing Cassandra :: Chelsea Green Publishing
		The future of that simulated world—they called it “World3,” because it was the third in a series of attempts to create a global computer model—did not look good.
		Although World3 did not overly concern itself with the ultimate effects on Nature and its web of complex ecosystems, one can easily discern, reading between the lines on the old printouts, the eventual collapse of evolution as well.
		Prodded by their funders, the World3 creators began to feel they had an important message to deliver to the citizens of the real world, in the form of a warning, which they attempted to deliver.
	www.chelseagreen.com /1999/items/believingcassandra/Excerpt (963 words)

	Meadows, Meadows, and Randers - Beyond The Limits To Growth
		With some trepidation we turned to World3, the computer model that had helped us twenty years before to integrate the global data and to work through their long-term implications.
		World3 showed us that in twenty years some options for sustainability have narrowed, but others have opened up.
		As far as we can tell from the global data, from the World3 model, and from all we have learned in the past twenty years, the three conclusions we drew in The Limits to Growth are still valid, but they need to be strengthened.
	www.context.org /ICLIB/IC32/Meadows.htm (2582 words)

	Limits to Growth :: Chelsea Green Publishing
		The first is a complete documentation of the World3 computer model; the second presents 13 chapters with auxiliary studies and submodels made as input to the global model.
		The World3 model was developed from World2, primarily by elaborating its structure and extending its quantitative database.
		Forrester is the intellectual father of the World3 model and of the system dynamics modelling method it employs.
	www.chelseagreen.com /2004/items/limitspaper/Preface (4906 words)

	world3 on scribble.com (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Years passed and World3 remained as it originally was (molded by the hands of Nick).
		At some point, www.world3.com (and other associated domains, such as noosphere.com) lapsed, and World3 became left as an electronic orphan.
		And thus I give you World3 -- just as it was when its previous hosts bundled it up in the mid-90s, and Nick went on to higher pursuits.
	scribble.com /world3/meme1/scribble.html (142 words)

	Amazon.ca: Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach: Books (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		World3 epistemology, instead, proceeds with the GROWTH of knowledge.
		World3 is created by individuals with certain goals, but the contents of World3 seem to have a life of its own(and this is very metaphorical).
		Being a part of World3, it is human made, but the world wide web has a certain autonomy.
	www.amazon.ca /exec/obidos/ASIN/0198750242 (2624 words)

	Global Model Index - GENI Articles Index - Opinion Editorials - Papers - Global Model Matrix - Historical Activities - ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		World3 was designed by Dennis & Donella Meadows and later became the subject for their book, Limits To Growth.
		This model was developed from the Meadows' book Beyond the Limits which demonstrated that the current trends could be manipulated to result in economic demise or a sustainable future, depending on the causal relationships between variables over the long term.
		The Bariloche Model was a response to World3, and originated from a meeting in Brazil with the Club of Rome and the Universitario Pesquisas de Rio de Janeiro.
	www.geni.org /globalenergy/library/geni/globalmodelindex.shtml (1981 words)

	aporia documentation (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Aporia was created for World3, organized by Nick Routledge.
		World3 was an exploration of hypertext at the moment when the web was about to explode, just after Mozilla debuted.
		The result was a sort of responsive exquisite corpse, articulated by way of a double narrative which would be "stretched" and distorted as a viewer "navigated" through it.
	www.thing.net /~sawad/aporia/doc (159 words)

	Robert Gilman - What Time Is It?
		It's not a pretty picture, and World3 doesn't even include the Yugoslavia-like violence that could arise, or nuclear war, or a dozen other hideous scenarios that could all too easily develop as part of the collapse.
		Grain is, of course, only part of the total food supply, but it is a major part, and the total food supply will likely follow closely the trends in grain production.
		The only thing that is really different between the two curves is that the real data peaks 10 years earlier than the World3 projection.
	www.context.org /ICLIB/IC36/Gilman1.htm (3560 words)

	Interview with Dennis Meadows, Co-Author Limits to Growth 30 Year Update (audio) \| EnergyBulletin.net \| Peak Oil News ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Using the World3 computer model, the authors looked into the future and sounded an alarm, for the first time showing the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet.
		It provides a short course in the World3 computer model, types of growth, and the various kinds of overshoot likely to occur in the current century.
		While it remains to be seen whether public policy will respond effectively and in time to problems such as climate change, this book makes a compelling case for the vital need for a Sustainability Revolution.
	www.energybulletin.net /2514.html (464 words)

	Readings notes for Beyond the Limits
		The text says that World3 is complex but not complicated.
		Overshoot and collapse turns out to be the most common behavior mode of the World3 model.
		However, if our society is currently in overshoot mode, at least some of these warning signs should be obvious to anyone reading the newspapers or even watching TV news.
	www.cs.uga.edu /~cs1210/LimitsNotes.html (2073 words)

	Examination of the Environmental Crisis
		In 1972 an eminent group of intellectuals, The Club of Rome, commissioned the research skills of a group of scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to develop a model capable of engaging the question of future prospects for current economic practices.
		This program, combined with the new capacities of a super-computer, was able to calculate a great variety of principles applied to enormous quantities of raw data and thereby explore the potential 'carrying capacity' of the planet.
		[91] of the modeling system used in World3, none of them have been able to fundamentally challenge the foundational principles of systems analysis used in the model.
	bahai-library.com /?file=jones_environmental_crisis&chapter=1 (3731 words)

	Amazon.com: Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future: Books: Donella H. ... (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		In 1972 The Limits of Growth, sponsored by the Club of Rome and produced by a research team on a MIT computer programmed with a World3 model, created a stormy sensation.
		The book provides only a cursory description of the World3 model and the methods by which it was implemented on their computer.
		In the experience of this reader, such models are usually first represented by a set of differential equations, later transformed into a set of difference equations which are then encoded using any of several (Fortran, Pascal, Basic, C++, FoxPro,.
	www.amazon.com /exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0930031555?v=glance (2192 words)

	Amazon.de: Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future: English Books (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Without being a catch-all on the environmental crisis, the book shows how we are overshooting such crucial resources as food and water while overwhelming nature with pollutants like those causing global warming.
		World3 runs 13 future scenarios and learns that we can only avoid collapse by unplugging the exponential growth in population (two billions people in the past 20 years) and industrial production (doubled in the past 20 years).
		If the world settles for two children per couple and the per capita income of South Korea, we can avoid collapse and find an equilibrium at 7.7 billion people through 2100.
	www.amazon.de /exec/obidos/ASIN/0930031628 (1778 words)

	world model collapse
		However, the World3 'reference run' (like Forrester's in 1971) also projected overshoot and collapse of the world system.
		The World3 'reference run' (1972, above) projected that the industrial output per capita (IOPC) would reach its all-time peak in 2013 and then would steeply decline through 2100.
		All that World3 has told us so far is that the model system, and by implication the "real world" system, has a strong tendency to overshoot and collapse.
	crucial-systems.com /1321/world_model_collapse (1128 words)

	CLE Conference - 2002
		This wonderful new resource offers students a convenient and inexpensive way to reproduce all the scenarios in the classic book and to carry out experiments with new policies and different assumptions.
		Dennis will briefly describe the goals, structure, and results of World3 and demonstrate the CD version of the model.
		He will offer suggestions for assignments that can be given to students to facilitate their understanding of the model, and he will list a few caveats to observe when assigning students complex models.
	www.clexchange.org /conference/cle_2002conference.htm (5094 words)

	Population And The Environment: A Bibliography (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		In both books, the authors use a computer model called World3 to project the interactions between population growth, industrial growth, food production, resource consumption and pollution into the 21st century.
		Using the latest available figures, the authors reran the computer program but received similar results-- if present trends continue unchanged, the world faces a global economic and environmental collapse in the next century, with population plummeting as death rates rise.
		Documentation sources are listed so that others may set up and experiment with the World3 computer model.
	egj.lib.uidaho.edu /egj02/groat01.html (10573 words)

	Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling
		The decision to represent the earth’s natural resources in aggregate form did not take place in a vacuum.
		As part of the WORLD3 modeling project, several disaggregated, resource-specific/issue-specific, models were created
		The conclusion drawn from these models was that it was appropriate to lump all natural resources into a single variable in the WORLD3 model
	www.oilcrisis.com /hubbert/SystemDynamicsEnergyModeling (3869 words)

	Technology Benchmarks for Sustained Economic Growth
		This time path is labeled a technology benchmark, a path of environmental technology in use that society must achieve to ensure against population-and-economic collapse.
		The World3 global simulation model, developed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists to analyze global growth and its relation to environmental issues, is used to derive estimates of the requisite time path for several key technologies.
		The estimated time paths are compared with available information on actual rates of technological change.
	ideas.repec.org /p/hol/holodi/0005.html (439 words)

	Table of contents for Library of Congress control number 2004000125 (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		Contents may have variations from the printed book or be incomplete or contain other coding.
		World3: the Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World 5.
		Back from Beyond the Limits: The Ozone Story 6.
	www.loc.gov /catdir/toc/ecip0413/2004000125.html (120 words)

	Red Hot Chili Peppers - Around The World3 Guitar Tab @ TabCrawler.Com (Site not responding. Last check: 2007-10-22)
		TC Tabs Archive: RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS / AROUND THE WORLD3 (Guitar Tab)
		This Guitar Tab for AROUND THE WORLD3 is available in the TabCrawler Printable Version.
		To rate, comment, or edit this Guitar Tab you must log in
	www.tabcrawler.com /archive.php?action=view&file_id=39489 (190 words)

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